Car Care Bowl Charlotte Dec 31
South Florida has only had football for nine years, four at the Division I level, but located in Tampa, a high school FB hotbed, they are quickly becoming a force; this is their first bowl game, and when HC Leavitt turned down Kansas State, where he had once been an assistant coach, it established South Florida as a rising power in the Big East, a league that is being ripped since Miami, Va Tech left, so the remaining teams have something to prove in these bowl games.
NC State was 2-4 at one point this season; they switched QB's, won four of last five games, including win over Florida State, taking lot of heat off Coach Amato, who is 40-28 in six years at Raleigh. Their win over Seminoles reinforces that Wolfpack plays better when they are underdog, but with this game in Charlotte, State is definitely the favorite, and Pack is 3-15 vs spread in its last 18 games as favorite.
South Florida has good team speed; they lost last two games, dropping night game at cold UConn site, then losing to West Virginia in game where total yardage was 394-370, WV; in their season opener, a 23-13 loss at Penn State, total yardage was 354-298, Penn State. Keep in mind that Penn State, West Virginia combined for 20-2 record this season.
Both teams are defensive-minded. South Florida has 3 senior starters on OL, which we like; Bulls' coaching situation is much more settled, and we think Bulls will be fired up to win their first bowl game, while Wolfpack has never been dependable favorite under Amato. South Florida is right side in this game. USF was +7 to start, now bet down to +3.5.
Liberty Bowl Memphis Dec 31
Favorite covered seven of last eight Liberty Bowls, good news for Fresno State team that was 8-1 and rolling along until they went toe-to-toe with USC on Nov 19, leading game with under 9:00 left, before falling 50-42. After that, Bulldogs mailed in next two games, losses at Nevada (38-35) and at home to Louisiana Tech (40-28). Fresno was minus-10 in turnovers in those three games, after being +4 in their first nine games.
Fresno has beaten Tulsa last four times they met, from '99-'02, by average score of 33-14, but that was before current Tulsa regime was in place; Hurricane are 20-17 under Kragthorpe, and have played in bowls two of last three years, when '91 had been their last bowl before that; their last bowl was 52-10 loss to Georgia Tech. Tulsa won the C-USA title game on road, beating Central Florida 44-27 on Dec 3; they're 7-0 vs spread away from home this season, an amazing mark.
Bulldogs won their last three bowls, vs Georgia Tech (30-21), UCLA (17-9) and Virginia (37-34); they've covered 11 of their last fifteen tries as favorite. Sr QB Pinegar is trying to go 4-0 in bowl games, something that has never been done by an NCAA QB (seven won three bowls). Tulsa won six of its last seven games; they were +17 in turnovers, just in those seven games, and scored 34+ points in eight of their last 10 games.
Both teams are well-coached and are capable of scoring in the kicking game. Fresno has had time to regroup after their November skid; they have senior QB and a winning streak in bowls. Tulsa outscored its last three foes 58-7 in second half of games. Of all the bowls we've looked at so far, this is the hardest to handicap, but we would side with Fresno State, in a very weak opinion.
Houston Bowl Dec 31
Iowa State choked away shot to play in Big 12 title game for second year in row, letting Kansas' backup QB lead game-tying TD drive in last minute, then missing chip shot FG that sealed OT loss to Jayhawks, but that was Cyclones' first loss in last five games, during which ISU was +13 in turnovers, picking off 13 passes, with just four giveaways. Cyclones are 7-4, but three of their four losses came in OT; they were 9-point home favorite in their fourth loss, 23-13 to Baylor, during which their QB got hurt, and Bears ended a multi-year conference losing streak.
TCU won its opener at Oklahoma, as 26.5-point dog, then lost at SMU as 14-point favorite, before running table, winning back-to-back OT games over Utah, BYU. Only one of their last six wins was by less than 14 points. Once they lost to SMU, Frogs had a +21 turnover ratio in their last nine games, but their season ended Nov 12, so they've had longest layoff of any bowl team. TCU didn't have a bye during their season; will be interesting to see if the seven-week layoff affects them.
Iowa St RB Hicks was banged up for much of year; if he is healthy here, Iowa State can win this; they usually travel lot of fans, which could offset home state advantage for TCU, whose team, naturally, is almost all Texas kids. Horned Frogs covered one of their last seven as favorite outside of Fort Worth. Patterson is 4-9-1 as road favorite with TCU. Six of last nine Iowa State games went over total, as did five of last eight TCU contests. I think Iowa State is right side here as the dog.
South Florida has only had football for nine years, four at the Division I level, but located in Tampa, a high school FB hotbed, they are quickly becoming a force; this is their first bowl game, and when HC Leavitt turned down Kansas State, where he had once been an assistant coach, it established South Florida as a rising power in the Big East, a league that is being ripped since Miami, Va Tech left, so the remaining teams have something to prove in these bowl games.
NC State was 2-4 at one point this season; they switched QB's, won four of last five games, including win over Florida State, taking lot of heat off Coach Amato, who is 40-28 in six years at Raleigh. Their win over Seminoles reinforces that Wolfpack plays better when they are underdog, but with this game in Charlotte, State is definitely the favorite, and Pack is 3-15 vs spread in its last 18 games as favorite.
South Florida has good team speed; they lost last two games, dropping night game at cold UConn site, then losing to West Virginia in game where total yardage was 394-370, WV; in their season opener, a 23-13 loss at Penn State, total yardage was 354-298, Penn State. Keep in mind that Penn State, West Virginia combined for 20-2 record this season.
Both teams are defensive-minded. South Florida has 3 senior starters on OL, which we like; Bulls' coaching situation is much more settled, and we think Bulls will be fired up to win their first bowl game, while Wolfpack has never been dependable favorite under Amato. South Florida is right side in this game. USF was +7 to start, now bet down to +3.5.
Liberty Bowl Memphis Dec 31
Favorite covered seven of last eight Liberty Bowls, good news for Fresno State team that was 8-1 and rolling along until they went toe-to-toe with USC on Nov 19, leading game with under 9:00 left, before falling 50-42. After that, Bulldogs mailed in next two games, losses at Nevada (38-35) and at home to Louisiana Tech (40-28). Fresno was minus-10 in turnovers in those three games, after being +4 in their first nine games.
Fresno has beaten Tulsa last four times they met, from '99-'02, by average score of 33-14, but that was before current Tulsa regime was in place; Hurricane are 20-17 under Kragthorpe, and have played in bowls two of last three years, when '91 had been their last bowl before that; their last bowl was 52-10 loss to Georgia Tech. Tulsa won the C-USA title game on road, beating Central Florida 44-27 on Dec 3; they're 7-0 vs spread away from home this season, an amazing mark.
Bulldogs won their last three bowls, vs Georgia Tech (30-21), UCLA (17-9) and Virginia (37-34); they've covered 11 of their last fifteen tries as favorite. Sr QB Pinegar is trying to go 4-0 in bowl games, something that has never been done by an NCAA QB (seven won three bowls). Tulsa won six of its last seven games; they were +17 in turnovers, just in those seven games, and scored 34+ points in eight of their last 10 games.
Both teams are well-coached and are capable of scoring in the kicking game. Fresno has had time to regroup after their November skid; they have senior QB and a winning streak in bowls. Tulsa outscored its last three foes 58-7 in second half of games. Of all the bowls we've looked at so far, this is the hardest to handicap, but we would side with Fresno State, in a very weak opinion.
Houston Bowl Dec 31
Iowa State choked away shot to play in Big 12 title game for second year in row, letting Kansas' backup QB lead game-tying TD drive in last minute, then missing chip shot FG that sealed OT loss to Jayhawks, but that was Cyclones' first loss in last five games, during which ISU was +13 in turnovers, picking off 13 passes, with just four giveaways. Cyclones are 7-4, but three of their four losses came in OT; they were 9-point home favorite in their fourth loss, 23-13 to Baylor, during which their QB got hurt, and Bears ended a multi-year conference losing streak.
TCU won its opener at Oklahoma, as 26.5-point dog, then lost at SMU as 14-point favorite, before running table, winning back-to-back OT games over Utah, BYU. Only one of their last six wins was by less than 14 points. Once they lost to SMU, Frogs had a +21 turnover ratio in their last nine games, but their season ended Nov 12, so they've had longest layoff of any bowl team. TCU didn't have a bye during their season; will be interesting to see if the seven-week layoff affects them.
Iowa St RB Hicks was banged up for much of year; if he is healthy here, Iowa State can win this; they usually travel lot of fans, which could offset home state advantage for TCU, whose team, naturally, is almost all Texas kids. Horned Frogs covered one of their last seven as favorite outside of Fort Worth. Patterson is 4-9-1 as road favorite with TCU. Six of last nine Iowa State games went over total, as did five of last eight TCU contests. I think Iowa State is right side here as the dog.
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