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Confirmed Nfl Selections (week #17) (update #1)

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  • Confirmed Nfl Selections (week #17) (update #1)

    BOOOOM TOTA DOMINATION YESTERDAY HITTING THE TOP BOWL PLAY OF THE YEAR WITH MISSOURI, AND HITTING THE VIRGINIA OVER, VIRGINIA, AND THE UCLA OVER. I HAVE NOW SHOWED A PROFIT IN 24 OUT OF THE LAST 29 WEEKS (79.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.

    NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.

    8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
    6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
    5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES

    4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
    3* STRONG SELECTION
    2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
    1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER

    OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
    --------------------------------------------------
    SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
    3* NEW ORLEANS +14
    2* NEW ENGLAND -5.5
    2* INDIANAPOLIS -7
    2* CLEVELAND +3
    2* MINNESOTA -4
    2* GREEN BAY -4
    Opinions:
    --------------------------------------------------
    NEW ORLEANS (3 - 12) at TAMPA BAY (10 - 5)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The Saints (3-12 SU, 5-8 ATS) are homeless, quarterback-less and win-less over the last four games, after a 13-12 loss to Detroit on Saturday. The Saints have lost 10 of their last 11 in a season in which they played "home" games in New Jersey, San Antonio and Baton Rouge, La., after Hurricane Katrina. Replacing Aaron Brooks, Todd Bouman wasn't much better at the beginning of his second start for New Orleans. With a 27-24 OT win over the Falcons, the Bucs (10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) gained a share of first place in the NFC South heading into the final week of the season. Chris Simms threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams ran for 150 yards to go over 1,000 for the season. Simms launched the winning drive from midfield with 54 seconds remaining. He threw 15 yards to Alex Smith and 11 to Anthony Becht to move the Bucs into field goal range.

    I’m still in total sticker shock after looking at this line and there is a ton of value in this line if you have the balls to bet it. Tampa Bay is laying 14 points? Are you fucking kidding me? I can only assume this line is inflated due to Tampa's playoff need. Indeed, Tampa has hosted New Orleans three times laying 6, 8 and 7.5 points in those games and the Buccaneers didn't cover one of those games. In fact, they didn't even win one! The only other time this season the Bucs laid doubles (at San Francisco), they lost the whole game. Moreover, since November, the Saints have lost only twice by more than seven points. They held Tampa Bay to just 10 points when the teams met four weeks ago. The Bucs never bury their opponents as Tampa Bay has won only one game by more than seven points since mid-October against Carolina by 10 points. The Bucs are also averaging less than 14 points their past five games. Expect a very motivated Saints team that will give a strong effort and get us a cover.

    Projected Score: TB Bucs 23, NO Saints 24
    PLAY 3* UNITS ON NEW ORLEANS +14

    MIAMI (8 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 5)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The old AFC East rivals meet for an interesting game. Miami (8-7) won't make the playoffs, but carries a 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS run into this game under first-year coach Nick Saban. Beating New England, which has won four of the past five AFC East titles (including this season) and is the defending Super Bowl champion, is one way to make a statement. On the other hand, Miami is 3-4 SU/ATS on the road and the secondary is ranked 19th in the NFL in pass defense and to make matters worse for them, they will have to play in the bitter cold New England weather and they have to face Bill Belichick! The Patriots (10-5) are in an unusual spot. If the Pats win and Cincinnati loses, New England moves ahead of the Bengals. Not sure whether that's a plus or not since it means that New England will host Pittsburgh or Kansas City in the Wild Card round instead of Jacksonville, the team I would rather play. Nonetheless, the Pats are on a 4-0 SU/ATS roll behind a dominating defensive front, holding 4 straight opponents to 41, 14, 30 and 40 yards rushing! The return of Richard Seymour has solidified this front seven into a fierce unit against the run and opposing QBs. New England rushed for more than 100 yards only once in its first nine games. Since then, the Patriots have gained more than 100 yards on the ground four times in six weeks and in three of the past four games.

    Don’t be fooled about Miami’s 5-game win streak, as not one of those wins were against a team in the playoffs, and remember Miami lost 22-0 at Cleveland in the cold. This is Bill Belichik’s favorite spot, at home, against a divisional opponent and he doesn't lose division home games going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS. Miami also does not cover the spread when they lose a division game going an unbelievable 0-32 ATS! Don’t fret, I highly doubt Bilichick will rest his players as he will definitely try to win this contest. New England has also been in this position three times in the last four years, playing their last game of the season with 'nothing' to play for. The results were three wins in which the Pats outscored their opposition 90-13. If that’s not enough to convince you try New England’s 7-0 ATS record I their final home games of the season and Belichick's 6-0 ATS record in season finales with New England. – and we can only look to fade the frozen fish today. Im still not done folks! The fact that the Dolphins are 1-11 ATS in their final road game of the season when taking on a division foe and just 2-12 ATS in their last 12 division match-up cements it!

    Projected Score: NE Patriots 28, MIA Dolphins 14
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW ENGLAND -5.5

    ARIZONA (5 - 10) at INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 2)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The only thing that's going to help the Cardinals is the NFL draft and a new season. Arizona (5-10 SU/ATS) has been decimated by injuries, and all they can do is throw the ball. On the plus side, they do throw the ball well, No. 1 in the NFL averaging 277 pass yards per game with WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona is 3-3 SU/ATS the last 6 games, and QB Josh McCown stepped in for Kurt Warner and led the way in a 27-21 win over the Eagles. However, note that Arizona is 1-8 SU/ATS as a dog this season. The Cardinals are also 5-26 SU, 9-22 ATS their last 31 road games! The Colts are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two games after that 13-0 start. The Colts are off a 28-13 loss at Seattle using mostly backups. WR Marvin Harrison won't play here, and WR Brandon Stokley left the Seattle game during the fourth quarter with a sore left knee. Backup QB Jim Sorgi was pretty good, taking over for Peyton Manning in the 1st half. Sorgi put up career-best numbers, completing 22-of-31 for 237 yards and the one touchdown. The Colts ended up with an edge in total yards, 387-332. Don’t be surprised if the Colt’s come out of the gates firing this weekend similar to the Giants motivated win over Washington after their long time owner died. With the loss of Indy’s HC son last weekend, last weeks loss was certainly excusable considering the circumstances as the Colts players were understandably down. Regardless of whether Dungy is on the sidelines for this contest you have to feel that the Colts will come in focused and ready to play. Moreover, Indy certainly does want to go into the playoffs with 3 straight losses. The Colts defense will have a dominating fundamental matchup advantage over Arizona’s offensive unit as the Cardinals will have a very difficult hard time punching it into the end zone. Their running game has been woeful all season, and they simply don't have the horses up front to move the ball against the Indy front seven. Their inability to establish a ground game will hurt Arizona playing on the road in what is a very loud stadium. The line is down because of uncertainty about Dungy, and whether the Colts will rest key players so lets take that extra value and run with it.

    Forecast: IND Colts 34, ARI Cardinals 17
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON INDIANAPOLIS -7

    BALTIMORE (6 - 9) at CLEVELAND (5 - 10)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The Ravens used to be from Cleveland, and the Browns replaced them, however I’m not sure anybody is going to be thinking of that in the icy Ohio cold, however. The Ravens are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four games, and most impressive is that they've found a quarterback. Kyle Boller was terrific again, carrying the Ravens to a 30-23 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Boller threw three touchdown passes for the second straight game (all on third downs) hitting Todd Heap for 6 yards, Mark Clayton for 47 yards and Derrick Mason for 39 yards. Boller completed 24 of 34 passes for 289 yards, knocking the Vikings out of the playoffs. In victories over the Packers and Vikings, Boller completed 70 percent of his passes and averaged 271 yards a game. He threw six touchdown passes and was intercepted once for a 123.8 quarterback rating. Baltimore is 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS on the road, however. Meanwhile, Cleveland (5-10) is 3-1 SU/ATS as a favorite, but 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS as a dog. Browns quarterback Charlie Frye suffered a mild concussion sometime in the second half of Saturday's 41-0 loss to the Steelers.

    This is really a tough spot for the traveling Ravens as they must travel off a short holiday week, to face an opponent that has revenge for a 16-0 loss to Baltimore in October and just subjected its home fans and backers to a 41-0 defeat against its supposed archrival on Christmas Eve. Cleveland players and coaches were noticeably upset after last weeks embarrassment and they are goig to do something about it this weekend. Oh boy! The Browns owe something to a lot of people, and with Baltimore having no post-season motivation and coming off a win in its final home game, Cleveland is in a position to make amends. Technical numbers also support the Browns as Baltimore is a woeful 3-11 ATS in road finales and 0-4 SU & ATS in road games off back-to-back home games. Rough Rough this dog bites!

    Forecast: BAL Ravens 14, CLE Browns 21
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON CLEVELAND +3

    CHICAGO (11 - 4) at MINNESOTA (8 - 7)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The loss to the Bears in mid-October has to be most difficult for Minnesota to swallow. The Vikings held Chicago to less than 200 total yards while gaining nearly 300 yards themselves and still lost by 25 points. Now they'll close out the 2005 campaign against the 2nd-seeded Bears knowing they will be home for post season for the 4th time in the last 5 years while Chicago moves on with division honors in hand. Chicago (11-4 SU, 9-4-2 ATS) has the No. 1 defense in the NFL and is 11-3 "under" the total. New starting QB Rex Grossman threw for just 157 yards but his ability to throw accurate deep passes gave the Bears a new dimension. The Vikings (8-7 SU/ATS) are coming off a 30-23 loss to Baltimore, eliminating the Vikings from the post season hunt. Coach Mike Tice plans to use this finale against the Bears to get a look at a few of his younger players. That list likely will include rookie WR Troy Williamson, tight end Richard Angulo, RB Ciatrick Fason, LB Rod Davis and cornerback Dovonte Edwards. Davis and Edwards, who are used in select passing packages, probably will see some action in the base defense. Tice made it clear he won't sacrifice the game, and a chance to finish 9-7 instead of 8-8, just for the sake of getting a look at these players. That means QB Brad Johnson will remain the starter, with Shaun Hill on the bench..

    This game is meaningless for both teams, as the Bears have the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs ensured. They have a chance to rest players who need to heal. Strong safety Mike Brown and strong-side LB Hunter Hillenmeyer will not suit up, and several minor injuries came out of the victory at Green Bay. Center Olin Kreutz sprained his right ankle, fullback Bryan Johnson suffered an injured right foot and special-teams ace Brendon Ayanbadejo tweaked an ankle. Lovie Smith said that players who are healthy will start and that he wants to field his best team. But how long they play is another thing. It's unlikely QB Rex Grossman will play the entire game on the Metrodome surface where he blew out his right knee last season. RB Thomas Jones could have a short day. He needs 27 yards to become the second 1,300-yard rusher in franchise history, and Turner said first-round pick Cedric Benson should be ready to return after missing six games with a sprained right knee. Considering that Chicago is 3-12 ATS in road finales and they certainly do not need to even play this game, I think Minnesota can secure this home win and cover. Lay the small number!

    Projected Score: MIN Vikings 20, CHI Bears 7
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON MINNESOTA -4

  • #2
    SEATTLE (13 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 12)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 4:15 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    Seahawks Seattle (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) head coach Mike Holmgren returns to the frozen tundra with his first legitimate Super Bowl contender since leaving Green Bay. Fortunately for the Seahawks, this game will have zero meaning as they clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with their easy victory against the depleted Colts last week. Seattle has now won 11 straight, but Holmgren can be expected to rest his prominent first-string players through most of this contest at the very least. When Marcus Trufant went down against the Colts, the Seahawks found themselves trying to stop Peyton Manning without their top three cornerbacks. With Andre Dyson (ankle) and Kelly Herndon (knee) already out and Trufant leaving with a bruised back, Seattle's corners were Jordan Babineaux, making his third NFL start; Jimmy Williams, who has been with the team for just 13 games; and Michael Harden, who rejoined the team this month after being released in the final round of training-camp cuts. Even without star receiver Marvin Harrison, Manning picked apart the Seahawks' patchwork secondary. He completed 9 of 12 passes for 116 yards in one quarter. Don't expect to see some of the team's top players in Sunday's game for long. LB D.D. Lewis wore a protective boot over his right foot and is not expected to play, along with DE Joe Tafoya (hamstring). QB Matt Hasselbeck will play, but backup Seneca Wallace also figures to get in for what could be the most snaps he'll take all season. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Bret Favre threw four interception passes as the Packers lost to Chicago 24-17 Sunday. The Packers (3-12 SU, 5-9 ATS) are well on their way toward their first losing season in the Bret Favre era.

    With only one game remaining, the futures of Favre and coach Mike Sherman remain in doubt. The two spoke about wanting to win the last game in front of the home fans, but didn't. "When you’ve been so starved for a win we’re real hungry right now, we’d sure like to have a win," said Tom Rossley, the Packers’ offensive coordinator and they will get their second chance to do it against the disinterested Seahawks. Brett Favre will not end his career on a loss and he is 27-4 SU at home in regular season home games from December out in his NFL career. Just lay it.

    Projected Score: GB Packers 24, SEA Seahawks 14
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON GREEN BAY -4

    WASHINGTON (9 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 9)
    Week 17 Sunday, 1/1/2006 4:15 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    Comment


    • #3
      GL GUru
      Great Day To Win

      MLB 2008 (19-23-1) +3.0 units

      NBA 08-09 (10-7) + 1.59 units

      GOY (4-1)

      Comment


      • #4
        Goodluck this weekend Guru!!!!!!!!!
        "Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."

        Comment


        • #5
          thanks for the good write ups good luck

          Comment


          • #6
            I like every one of those!

            Comment


            • #7
              Good Luck!!! Have a Great 06'!!!

              Comment


              • #8
                GL today Guru!
                It's always noon somewhere!

                My Fish and Aquariums

                Griffey's Posted Record

                Comment


                • #9
                  Wish I knew you Coverboy. I could save you the vig by holding your ML action on New Orleans over Tampa. If you think Tampa is going to lose an elimination game on their home field to the Ain'ts, you need to think again. +14 may be attractive, but no way in hell the Bucs lose to the Saints and eliminate themselves from the playoffs (assuming Carolina wins which they will over the Atlanta Quitters). Oh yeah, and those three games the Bucs lost to the Saints, none were elimination games. Tampa won at New Orleans earlier and Carnell Williams was OUT. He will shred the Saints tomorrow.
                  Last edited by Spiccoli; 12-31-2005, 02:34 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Spiccoli, I will win this games easily.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sports Guru
                      Spiccoli, I will win this games easily.
                      Not straight up. Even I like +14, but Tampa is going to win the game. The Saints SUCK, and no way they win a road game with Bauman at QB!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        gl to ya Guru---kapt


                        Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          happy new year sg and best of luck to you in 2006

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Spiccoli
                            Not straight up. Even I like +14, but Tampa is going to win the game. The Saints SUCK, and no way they win a road game with Bauman at QB!

                            Good call on that one Spiccoli!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Wow...

                              Comment

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