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Music City Bowl Nashville Dec 30
I'm sure Nashville is an excellent place, but if you're playing in the Music City Bowl, your season has had issues. Minnesota was 4-0 and dreaming of their first Rose Bowl in over 40 years, then they got crushed at Penn State and wound up 7-4, losing their two games on grass by 44-14/52-28 scores. This is third time in last four years Gophers have been here (they won first two, both as underdog); they're 6-2 vs spread as favorite this year, while Virginia is a 58% underdog under Groh.
Cavaliers are in bowl for 4th year in row, but they haven't risen to level of prominence predicted for them in ACC. Gophers are bully team that tries to run ball down your throat; they lost home game to Wisconsin, when they ran ball for 411 yards vs Badgers; they had 113,112 and 236 rushing yards in their other losses, while averaging 321.9 rushing yards in their wins. Virginia Tech (333) and Maryland (250) were only teams to run ball for more than 196 yards vs Virginia.
Virginia has had three assistant coaches become head coaches since their last regular season game; head coach Groh will be DC for this game. This both helps and hurts, since Minnesota will have very little idea what the new people want to do, but of course, being down three coaches, especially good coaches, is a distraction. Cavalier QB Hagans is both passer and runner, always a plus in bowl game; they have three senior starters on OL. UVa is healthier now than they were in middle of season, when they were taking some lumps.
Eight of last ten Gopher games went over total; six of last seven Virginia games stayed under. Think playing in same bowl three times in four years isn't a good thing, especially a lower-tier bowl that Gophers won the first two times they were here. Plus, worst two games Minnesota played this year were on grass. Virginia has offensive balance, seniors on the OL, and a better coach, in my opinion. I would lean with Cavaliers in this game.
Sun Bowl El Paso Dec 30
Underdog covered nine of last 10 Sun Bowls, last seven in row, with dog 7-3 SU; Pac-10 teams lost four of last five Sun Bowls; it has been eight years since a Pac-10 team won this game by more than eight points. . Northwestern, UCLA are both high powered offensive teams where the defenses took some Saturdays off; Wildcats allowed average of 41.8 ppg in their losses, but they went 7-4, and damn near beat Penn State (34-29).
Last six Northwestern games stayed under total, mainly because numbers got jacked up so high after their 51-48 home win vs Wisconsin. NW has senior QB in Basanez, who is in third bowl in his four years as starter, but Wildcats' last bowl win was in '49 Rose Bowl- this year, they scored 21-29-17-7 points in their losses, while averaging 39.4 ppg in their wins.
UCLA allowed 27+ points in each of last seven games, average of 51 ppg in their last three, and got gashed for 52,66 points in losses at Arizona, USC after 9-0 start that saw them win four games that they trailed in at halftime. In all , UCLA led only four of their 11 games at the half, yet finished 9-2. They have one of best punt returners in country in Drew; now all they need is defense to force some punts. Bruins won four games by seven or less points; they were even in turnovers over last eight games, after being +7 in first three games.
Both coaches are 0-2 in bowl games. Northwestern's kicker was just 25% on field goals outside of 30 yards. UCLA has injury problems at center, a critical position. Everyone in America is calling for this to be an over game. Bruins have had two weeks less time to prepare (or to get rusty) for this game, since they last played Dec 3, while Wildcats last played Nov 19.
Northwestern is 3-1 in games decided by three or less points; they stole game from Iowa, scoring two TDs in last 2:00 to win, 28-27. Basanez is senior QB, and I am put off by UCLA possibly using 3rd-string center in this game. I would lean towards the purple side in this game. Total is too high to use, especially since it isn't always warm in El Paso (check weather channel).
Independence Bowl Shreveport, LA Dec 30
Missouri had a starting safety suspended here for drug-related issues, which negates fact that they have terrific senior QB playing his final college game. Missouri lost three of last four games and also lost 45-35 at home to New Mexico as 11-point favorite, so even though they're in bowl, they've been big disappointment. Much like the Music City Bowl, if you make it to Shreveport, you're in a good bowl in a nice place, but you sure haven't had a great year. Tigers lost their last three road games by 10,29,8 points, and were last team to lose to Colorado (41-12).
Steve Spurrier is 6-6 in bowls, with very few close games; when he wins, he wins by 15+ points. South Carolina is first SEC East team to play in this bowl since Gamecocks joined SEC; officials are expecting Gamecock fans to jam their stadium, since this is Carolina's first bowl game in four years. USC has three senior starters on OL, and Mitchell did nice job under center.
Missouri ranked 73rd in pass defense, so Mitchell could do some work here. Gamecocks won five of last six games, beating Tenn/Ark/Fla in succession, losing only to Clemson, 13-9. SEC teams are 9-0 SU, 8-1 vs spread in their last nine Independence Bowl appearances (they didn't have team in last year's game); Gamecocks won their last three bowls, and will be hungry since this is their first bowl since '01.
Dogs are 6-1 vs spread last seven times this bowl was played. Eight of 11 Missouri games went over the total; Tigers lost in this game two years ago, 27-14 to Arkansas. Mizzou has been totally inconsistent for a while now, so hard to predict what happens in Smith's last game, with distraction of a defensive leader being suspended for drug-related arrest. Mizzou will use freshman QB Daniel a little, to get him ready for next year; he seems talented enough, although not the runner Smith is.
If I had to choose a side in this game, if weather is decent, I'd side with the over.
Peach Bowl Atlanta Dec 30
Last six Peach Bowls were all decided by 10+ points, with ACC teams winning the last four; Miami won this game last year,
27-10 vs Florida, while Tigers won this game in '96 and '00. LSU lost SEC title (34-14) and QB Russell to left shoulder injury on this field four weeks ago. Sophomore Flynn makes his first college start here; he was 3-11 for 36 yards in relief vs Dawgs. Tigers covered five of last seven games on carpet, despite the Georgia loss on this field Miami last played on carpet in last year's Peach Bowl.
Miami covered seven of its last eight bowl games; they have 11 senior starters, but LSU has 13. Hurricanes scored 7,10 points in their two losses. LSU allowed 17 or less points in each of its last nine wins; they gave up 30,34 points in their losses. Fact of matter is, while this is very attractive matchup, and will be sellout with zealous LSU fans making the trip east, both sides are disappointed to be doing anything but bowling in January. We'll still see good football (not as wide open as Michigan-Nebraska, but just as intense) but it'll be mistake-filled also, especially since LSU has first-time starter at QB.
Coach Miles had wild season in his first year in Baton Rouge, with Katrina in September, which eliminated their bye weeks, then the wild opening win at Arizona State, followed by the loss to Tennessee, when Tigers blew 21-0 halftime lead. Tigers won nine games in row after Tennessee debacle, before Georgia hammered them in SEC title game; they allowed 30,34 points in their two losses, an average of 11.8 in their wins.
Tough way for Flynn to debut, vs Miami defense that allowed more than 17 points once all year, back on Sept 17, in OT win at Clemson. With Miami's strong recent history in bowls, you'd have to say that they are right side in this game.
I'm sure Nashville is an excellent place, but if you're playing in the Music City Bowl, your season has had issues. Minnesota was 4-0 and dreaming of their first Rose Bowl in over 40 years, then they got crushed at Penn State and wound up 7-4, losing their two games on grass by 44-14/52-28 scores. This is third time in last four years Gophers have been here (they won first two, both as underdog); they're 6-2 vs spread as favorite this year, while Virginia is a 58% underdog under Groh.
Cavaliers are in bowl for 4th year in row, but they haven't risen to level of prominence predicted for them in ACC. Gophers are bully team that tries to run ball down your throat; they lost home game to Wisconsin, when they ran ball for 411 yards vs Badgers; they had 113,112 and 236 rushing yards in their other losses, while averaging 321.9 rushing yards in their wins. Virginia Tech (333) and Maryland (250) were only teams to run ball for more than 196 yards vs Virginia.
Virginia has had three assistant coaches become head coaches since their last regular season game; head coach Groh will be DC for this game. This both helps and hurts, since Minnesota will have very little idea what the new people want to do, but of course, being down three coaches, especially good coaches, is a distraction. Cavalier QB Hagans is both passer and runner, always a plus in bowl game; they have three senior starters on OL. UVa is healthier now than they were in middle of season, when they were taking some lumps.
Eight of last ten Gopher games went over total; six of last seven Virginia games stayed under. Think playing in same bowl three times in four years isn't a good thing, especially a lower-tier bowl that Gophers won the first two times they were here. Plus, worst two games Minnesota played this year were on grass. Virginia has offensive balance, seniors on the OL, and a better coach, in my opinion. I would lean with Cavaliers in this game.
Sun Bowl El Paso Dec 30
Underdog covered nine of last 10 Sun Bowls, last seven in row, with dog 7-3 SU; Pac-10 teams lost four of last five Sun Bowls; it has been eight years since a Pac-10 team won this game by more than eight points. . Northwestern, UCLA are both high powered offensive teams where the defenses took some Saturdays off; Wildcats allowed average of 41.8 ppg in their losses, but they went 7-4, and damn near beat Penn State (34-29).
Last six Northwestern games stayed under total, mainly because numbers got jacked up so high after their 51-48 home win vs Wisconsin. NW has senior QB in Basanez, who is in third bowl in his four years as starter, but Wildcats' last bowl win was in '49 Rose Bowl- this year, they scored 21-29-17-7 points in their losses, while averaging 39.4 ppg in their wins.
UCLA allowed 27+ points in each of last seven games, average of 51 ppg in their last three, and got gashed for 52,66 points in losses at Arizona, USC after 9-0 start that saw them win four games that they trailed in at halftime. In all , UCLA led only four of their 11 games at the half, yet finished 9-2. They have one of best punt returners in country in Drew; now all they need is defense to force some punts. Bruins won four games by seven or less points; they were even in turnovers over last eight games, after being +7 in first three games.
Both coaches are 0-2 in bowl games. Northwestern's kicker was just 25% on field goals outside of 30 yards. UCLA has injury problems at center, a critical position. Everyone in America is calling for this to be an over game. Bruins have had two weeks less time to prepare (or to get rusty) for this game, since they last played Dec 3, while Wildcats last played Nov 19.
Northwestern is 3-1 in games decided by three or less points; they stole game from Iowa, scoring two TDs in last 2:00 to win, 28-27. Basanez is senior QB, and I am put off by UCLA possibly using 3rd-string center in this game. I would lean towards the purple side in this game. Total is too high to use, especially since it isn't always warm in El Paso (check weather channel).
Independence Bowl Shreveport, LA Dec 30
Missouri had a starting safety suspended here for drug-related issues, which negates fact that they have terrific senior QB playing his final college game. Missouri lost three of last four games and also lost 45-35 at home to New Mexico as 11-point favorite, so even though they're in bowl, they've been big disappointment. Much like the Music City Bowl, if you make it to Shreveport, you're in a good bowl in a nice place, but you sure haven't had a great year. Tigers lost their last three road games by 10,29,8 points, and were last team to lose to Colorado (41-12).
Steve Spurrier is 6-6 in bowls, with very few close games; when he wins, he wins by 15+ points. South Carolina is first SEC East team to play in this bowl since Gamecocks joined SEC; officials are expecting Gamecock fans to jam their stadium, since this is Carolina's first bowl game in four years. USC has three senior starters on OL, and Mitchell did nice job under center.
Missouri ranked 73rd in pass defense, so Mitchell could do some work here. Gamecocks won five of last six games, beating Tenn/Ark/Fla in succession, losing only to Clemson, 13-9. SEC teams are 9-0 SU, 8-1 vs spread in their last nine Independence Bowl appearances (they didn't have team in last year's game); Gamecocks won their last three bowls, and will be hungry since this is their first bowl since '01.
Dogs are 6-1 vs spread last seven times this bowl was played. Eight of 11 Missouri games went over the total; Tigers lost in this game two years ago, 27-14 to Arkansas. Mizzou has been totally inconsistent for a while now, so hard to predict what happens in Smith's last game, with distraction of a defensive leader being suspended for drug-related arrest. Mizzou will use freshman QB Daniel a little, to get him ready for next year; he seems talented enough, although not the runner Smith is.
If I had to choose a side in this game, if weather is decent, I'd side with the over.
Peach Bowl Atlanta Dec 30
Last six Peach Bowls were all decided by 10+ points, with ACC teams winning the last four; Miami won this game last year,
27-10 vs Florida, while Tigers won this game in '96 and '00. LSU lost SEC title (34-14) and QB Russell to left shoulder injury on this field four weeks ago. Sophomore Flynn makes his first college start here; he was 3-11 for 36 yards in relief vs Dawgs. Tigers covered five of last seven games on carpet, despite the Georgia loss on this field Miami last played on carpet in last year's Peach Bowl.
Miami covered seven of its last eight bowl games; they have 11 senior starters, but LSU has 13. Hurricanes scored 7,10 points in their two losses. LSU allowed 17 or less points in each of its last nine wins; they gave up 30,34 points in their losses. Fact of matter is, while this is very attractive matchup, and will be sellout with zealous LSU fans making the trip east, both sides are disappointed to be doing anything but bowling in January. We'll still see good football (not as wide open as Michigan-Nebraska, but just as intense) but it'll be mistake-filled also, especially since LSU has first-time starter at QB.
Coach Miles had wild season in his first year in Baton Rouge, with Katrina in September, which eliminated their bye weeks, then the wild opening win at Arizona State, followed by the loss to Tennessee, when Tigers blew 21-0 halftime lead. Tigers won nine games in row after Tennessee debacle, before Georgia hammered them in SEC title game; they allowed 30,34 points in their two losses, an average of 11.8 in their wins.
Tough way for Flynn to debut, vs Miami defense that allowed more than 17 points once all year, back on Sept 17, in OT win at Clemson. With Miami's strong recent history in bowls, you'd have to say that they are right side in this game.
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