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NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
3* MISSOURI +4
1* LSU/MIAMI UNDER 41
1* VIRGINIA/MINNESOTA OVER 59
Opinions: MIAMI -7, VIRGINIA +6; NORTHWESTERN/UCLA OVER 74
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MISSOURI (6 - 5) vs. S CAROLINA (7 - 4)
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 3:30 PM
Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
vs 
History
For the 2nd time in 3 seasons under Head Coach Gary Pinkel, Missouri is playing in a post-season bowl game. This bowl appearance will mark only the 4th for the Tiger program since 1983. Mizzou's last bowl game also came at the Independence Bowl, when MU lost to Arkansas in the 2003 Independence Bowl by a 27-14 score. Missouri is 9-13 in bowl games, its last win coming in the 1998 Insight.com Bowl. Meanwhile, The 2005 Independence Bowl will mark Carolina's 12th bowl appearance overall and the Gamecocks first bowl appearance since the 2001 season when they defeated Ohio State, 31-28, in the Outback Bowl. Carolina is 3-8 all-time in bowl games, but has won each of its last three bowl games, topping West Virginia, 24-21 in the 1995 Carquest Bowl, before posting back-to-back Outback Bowl wins over Ohio State in 2001 and 2002. Missouri and South Carolina have met only once previously, with the Tigers claiming a 24-14 victory in the 1979 Hall of Fame Bowl, played in Birmingham, Ala.
Missouri (6-5, 4-4 Big 12)
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (Kent State, 1975)
Career Record: 101-67-3 (15th year)
Record at Missouri: 28-30 (5th year))
Last Bowl: 2003 Independence Bowl (Missouri 14, Arkansas 27)
South Carolina (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)
Head Coach: Steve Spurrier (Florida, 1967)
Career Record: 149-44-2 (16th year)
Record at South Carolina: 7-4 (1st year)
Last Bowl: 2002 Outback Bowl (South Carolina 31, Ohio State 28)
Missouri Leaders:
Rushing: Brad Smith (11 G, 208-1,306 yards, 13 TD)
Passing: Brad Smith (11 G, 362-216-8-2,022 yards, 12 TD)
Receiving: Martin Rucker (11 G, 42-484 yards, 1 TD)
South Carolina Leaders:
Rushing: Mike Davis (11 G, 128-574 yards, 3 TD)
Passing: Blake Mitchell (10 G, 277-166-9-2,104 yards, 15 TD)
Receiving: Sidney Rice (10 G, 58-952 yards, 12 TD)
MISSOURI:
In 25 previous match-ups with teams currently in the SEC, MU stands 16-8-1 all time. Mizzou also has a stellar record in bowl games versus the SEC, as the Tigers stand 5-2 all time in bowl games versus the league. Mizzou had won 5 straight over SEC teams in bowl games dating from the 1965 Sugar Bowl (20-18 over Florida) through the 1979 Hall of Fame Bowl (24-14 over South Carolina), before having that streak broken in 2003 Independence bowl, losing 27-14 to Arkansas.
SOUTH CAROLINA:
The Gamecocks are 6-8 in 14 all-time meetings against schools that currently reside in the Big 12 Conference. They have a winning record against Kansas State (2-1), Texas (1-0) and Iowa State (1-0). They are 1-1 against Oklahoma State and 1-2 versus Baylor and are winless against Missouri (0-1) and Nebraska (0-3). The Gamecocks last meeting against a Big 12 opponent came on October 3, 1987 when they dropped a 30-21 decision at Nebraska. Their last win over a Big 12 foe came on October 6, 1984 when they defeated K-State in Columbia by a 49-17 margin.
COACHING NOTES: MU Head Coach Gary Pinkel has fared pretty well in bowl games as a coach. Pinkel carries a 9-4 coaching record in bowl games into MU's matchup with South Carolina in the 2005 Independence Bowl. Pinkel is 1-1 as a head coach in bowl games, after his Mizzou Tigers were defeated by Arkansas in the 2003 Independence Bowl, 27-14. As head coach at Toledo, Pinkel's Rockets beat Nevada in the 1995 Las Vegas Bowl, 40-37 in overtime. That game was the first-ever overtime game played under the current overtime rules. As a top assistant coach under the legendary Don James at Washington, Pinkel coached in 11 bowl games in 12 years, from 1979-90, and the Huskies went a solid 8-3 in those outings. Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier was named the Southeastern Conference Coach of the Year, as selected by the Associated Press. For Spurrier, it was the eighth time he has been named his conference Coach of the Year. Previously he won the award at Duke in 1988 and 1989 and at Florida in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Steve Spurrier also joins Jim Carlen (1975) and Brad Scott (1994) as coaches that led the Gamecocks to a bowl game in their first season as head coach. Spurrier will be coaching in his 13th bowl game in his career. He owns a 6-6 record in his 12 previous bowl contests. He took the Duke Blue Devils to the 1989 All-American Bowl, then took Florida to 11 bowl appearances in 12 seasons as the Gators' coach, where he logged a 6-5 record. The only year that Florida did not go to a bowl game was following the 1990 season when they were on probation, but still posted a 9-2 regular season record.
CONFERENCE NOTES: The Southeastern Conference has found the going pretty good when they have played in the Independence Bowl. SEC teams have logged an 11-1 record in this bowl, with the only loss coming by Ole Miss to Air Force by a 9-3 count in the 1983 contest. Since that
setback, the SEC has posted 11 straight wins.
GAME NOTES: This will be only the second all time meeting between these teams. Missouri defeated South Carolina 24-14 in their only other meeting in Hall of Fame Bowl in Birmingham, Ala. The Independence Bowl will be played on synthetic grass (AstroPlay). It will mark the first time all season that Carolina has not played on a traditional grass surface.
TRENDS
MISSOURI:
Missouri is 0-3 ATS last three bowl games.
Missouri is 0-3 ATS as an underdog this year, but 6-1 ATS previous two seasons.
SOUTH CAROLINA:
South Carolina is 3-1 ATS away this year.
South Carolina is 10-2 ATS (7-0 ATS as a favorite) when playing with rest against a non-conference opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog is 12-5 ATS last 17 Independence Bowl games.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 Independence bowl games.
Analysis
The South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4, 5-3 Southeastern Conference) face the Missouri Tigers (6-5, 4-4 Big 12) in the 30th annual Independence Bowl. Carolina finished the season with five wins in its last six games to finish the season with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the SEC, good for second place in the Eastern Division in the first year of the "Steve Spurrier Era." During their final stretch run, Carolina posted a five-game SEC winning streak with consecutive wins over Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida and had non-conference wins over UCF and Troy. The Gamecocks' four losses were against Georgia, Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. Those four schools had a combined regular season record of 35-10 and are ranked eighth, 13th, 7th and 23rd respectively in the final regular season Associated Press poll. Meanwhile, Missouri checks in with their 6-5 record and 4-4 in the Big 12 North which amazingly earned them second place in that division. Missouri 6 wins were against Arkansas State, Troy, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Nebraska and Baylor. None of those teams with the exception of Iowa State and possible exception of Nebraska would be the caliber of South Carolina's opponents. Missouri's 5 losses came against Kansas, New Mexico, Kansas State, and they were completely blow out of the water against Texas and Colorado. The bottom line is South Carolina has performed better against a much tougher slate, and this game should be a step down in class for them.
South Carolina is led by the SEC Coach of the Year Steve Spurrier and although Spurrier was able to completely turn around the Gamecock program in his first year, he has not been without his critics. In prior years Spurrier showed a proclivity for spreading the field and airing the ball with great success, which produced big offensive numbers. However, this season, the South Carolina offense has been viewed as "too conservative" by many critics as they have actually ran the ball slightly more than they have thrown it. However, this critique against South Carolina is unwarranted as South Carolina had to endure eight of the nation's Top 36 total yardage defenses. Consider that in those eight games, South Carolina averaged just 275.3 total yards, but in the other three versus lesser defenses, the Gamecocks averaged 393 yards. Now consider how Spurreir's Gamecock's will fair against the Missouri defense that allowed 365 yards per game, which becomes excessively worse when you realize they played seven offenses ranked 79th or worse and just two in the Top 40. Spurrier obviously has plenty of time to dissect this step down in defensive class, and with the 15 extra preparation sessions, figure the playbook to be opened a little wider, with a possible return to his pass oriented ideology. South Carolina certainly has the personnel to pull off a high power offense as they are lead by sophomore quarterback Blake Mitchell who was solid in his first season as a starter, completing 166 of 277 passes for 2,104 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Freshman Mike Davis was South Carolina's top rusher, gaining 541 yards on 128 carries, while senior Daccus Turman had 245 yards on 59 attempts. Expect Carolina to establish the running game early, to open up the passing lanes.
On the defensive side of the football it will be all about containing Missouri's stud QB Brad Smith. Indeed, few would argue that Smith is probably the most explosive offensive player on either team. Smith is a big play waiting to happen, as he can make plays with his feet and his arm. On the season Smith completed 216 of 362 passes for 2,022 yards, and he's also the Big 12's leading rusher, averaging 104.6 rushing yards per game (1,151 total rushing yards).Smith also become the first player in NCAA Division I-A history to pass for 2,000 and run for 1,000 in two seasons. South Carolina's strong pass defense, which ranks 12th in the country allowing just 176.5 yards per game, has the ability to get the best of Missouri's air attack, but the unit must slow Smith or it will be caught on its heels. Indeed Missouri averaged 205 rushing yards per game and they will have a fundamental match-up advantage over the Gamecocks rush defense that hasn't been good this season, allowing 172.1 rushing yards per game. Thus, it will be critical for the Gamecocks to keep him in the pocket and tackle well when he is able to break containment. If they don't, Smith has the speed and elusiveness to break some long runs. Making matters worse for South Carolina is that it can't be overaggressive. If its linebackers or safeties start to play run before Smith crosses the line of scrimmage, he throws well enough on the run to hit the open receiver downfield.
The motivation/distraction factor clearly ears to the side of South Carolina. Prior to the start of the season, Spurrier gave his team three goals, a winning year, a bowl invitation a Top 25 ranking (Cocks now ranked 27th). Having an chance to accomplish all three of those goals means a lot to South Carolina's program, and now they have confidence heading into the match-up with Missouri. Meanwhile, the warm seat that Missouri Gary Pinkel was sitting on prior to the start of the season has been progressively getting hotter and hotter (word is several assistants concerned about job security), since he has gone just 28-30 despite having highly-athletic Brad Smith, who has set 52 school, Big XII or NCAA records. But then again, there are reports that Pinkel likes it at Missouri (players and coaches also seem to have a love affair with him) and has been motivating his team to put all out effort in an attempt to keep his job for next season.
Although I have remained neutral for most of my bowl previews I'm going to take a stand here and discuss this game from my perspective as somebody who will be betting this game, and taking the side of Missouri. Early betting indicators are showing that 85% of the bets being placed on this game are on South Carolina. That is no surprise as the "public" loves the story of a 1st year coach turning around his program, and the Steve Spurrier.blah.blah.blah. All of that seems really sexy to the casual bettor. But lets be honest here, South Carolina is a team that possesses only ordinary talent and is a solid favorite, and having only beaten Kentucky and Troy State all season in double figures, and without a single road win by more than this point spread. Moreover, and this is where it gets good, Missouri averaged 205 yards per game on the ground while South Carolina comes into this contest averaging just 91 yards per game. That's a whopping 114 yard differential. In fact, only eight Division I teams ran the football less efficiently than the Gamecocks did while just 18 ran it better than Missouri. Teams who average 75 rushing yards a game more than their .666 or less opponent were 21-6 to the number since 1980 and of course Missouri is one of those. This game also has the potential where the underdog doubles the rushing yards of its opponent. That situation has happened 62 times since 1980. The favorite in those games covered the spread just nine times equating to a woeful 9-53 ATS mark. For those of you not very good at math that amount to the favorite covering only 16.9% on the time and that's about home many people are betting on Missouri. Those "COCKS" bettors will be left holding only their "COCKS" as we will have the cash in our hands! Take the points!
Forecast: Missouri 28, South Carolina 21
PLAY 3* UNITS ON MISSOURI +4
Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 7:30 PM
Miami (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)
Last Bowl: 2004 Peach Bowl (Miami 27, Florida 10)
vs
LSU (10-2, 7-1 SEC Western Division Co-Champions)
Last Bowl: 2005 Capital One Bowl (LSU 25, Iowa 30)
History
Miami and Louisiana State will be meeting for the 12th time ever and for only the second time in 36 years. The Tigers lead the series 8-3. The two teams last played in 1988, a 44-3 Miami victory. Prior to that, they had not played since 1969. Miami returns to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl one year after defeating Florida 27-10 on December 31, 2004. This will be the third appearance for the Hurricanes in the Peach Bowl. On Jan. 2, 1981, the Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech 20-10 in the Peach Bowl in a game that has been credited as the turning point in the Miami football program. Prior to that Peach Bowl, Miami had not appeared in a bowl game for 14 years. Since that game, the Hurricanes have qualified for 21 bowl games in 25 years. Overall, Miami is making its 32nd bowl appearance. The Hurricanes have a record of 18-13 in 31 previous bowl games. LSU will be making their fourth appearance in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and the first since a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in 2000. LSU beat Florida State, 31-27, in the 1968 Peach Bowl and then posted a 10-7 victory over Clemson in the 1996 Peach Bowl. LSU will also be appearing in a bowl game for the 37th time, which includes a school record streak of six consecutive seasons with a bowl trip. Since 2000, the Tigers have appeared in the Nokia Sugar Bowl twice, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl twice, the Cotton Bowl and the Capital One Bowl.
TRENDS
LSU:
LSU HC Les Miles is 10-3 ATS off an SU & ATS loss.
MIAMI:
Miami is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last 8 bowl appearances.
Miami HC Larry Coker is 3-1 SU & ATS in his 4 games while coaching at Miami.
Miami is 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year and 16-27 ATS as a favorite since 2002.
Miami is 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less points since 2002.
Miami is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS away against an SEC opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 13 Peach Bowl games. (Favored Miami won ATS against Florida last year)
LSU:
LSU starting quarterback JaMarcus Russell did not accompany the Tigers to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. Russell, who injured his left shoulder Dec. 3, remained in Baton Rouge for treatment and rehabilitation, meaning Matt Flynn will make his first start in Friday's Peach Bowl. Miles said that walk-on Jimmy Welker will serve as Flynn's backup at quarterback against Miami. Welker, who has served as the LSU's scout team quarterback all season, has never played in a college game. LSU was second in the SEC and fifth in the nation in total defense (276.3 ypg). The Tigers were also third in SEC and seventh in nation in rushing defense (94.8 ypg). Five of LSU's 10 wins have come by four points or less, which includes a 2-point win over Arkansas (19-17), 3-point wins over Auburn (20-17) and Alabama (16-13) and 4-point wins over Arizona State (35-31) and Florida (21-17). The Auburn and Alabama wins came in overtime.
LSU Leaders:
Rushing: Joseph Addai (12 G, 163-781 yards, 8 TD)
Passing: JaMarcus Russell (12 G, 188-311, 2,443 yards, 15 TD)
Receiving: Dwayne Bowe (11 G, 38-659 yards, 9 TD)
Head Coach: Les Miles (Michigan, '76)
Career Record: 38-23 (5th year)
Record at LSU: 10-2 (1st year)
MIAMI:
Miami wide receiver Ryan Moore has been suspended for violating team policy and will not play in the Peach Bowl against No. 10 LSU on Friday night. Moore had 28 catches, third-most on the team, for 464 yards and four touchdowns this season. Lance Leggett will likely replace Moore in the starting lineup.
Miami Leaders:
Rushing: Tyrone Moss (8 G, 137-701 yards, 12 TD)
Passing: Kyle Wright (11 G, 170-286, 2,303 yards, 18 TD)
Receiving: Sinorice Moss (11 G, 35-604 yards, 6 TD)
Head Coach: Larry Coker (Northeastern, '70)
Career Record: 53-8 (5th year)
Record at Miami: 53-8 (5th year)
COACHING NOTES: LSU coach Les Miles will coach in a bowl game for the fourth time when the Tigers face Miami. Miles led Oklahoma State to three bowl games in four years before joining LSU for the 2005 season. Miles is 1-2 in bowl games, with his win coming against Southern Miss by a 33-23 count in the Houston Bowl in 2002. He also coached the Cowboys in the 2003 Cotton Bowl and the 2004 Alamo Bowl. Ole Miss beat Oklahoma State, 31-28, in the Cotton Bowl, while Ohio State posted a 33-7 victory over the Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl.
GAME NOTES: This years Peach Bowl features two top 10 teams for the first time in its history as the ninth-ranked Hurricanes face the No. 10 Tigers at the Georgia Dome on Dec. 30. It's one of only three bowl games this season pitting two top 10 teams against each other. No. 1 Southern California plays No. 2 Texas in the Rose Bowl for the national championship, and fourth-ranked Ohio State meets fifth-ranked Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. LSU leads the all time series with Miami, 8-3. The teams last met on Nov. 19, 1988, with #3-ranked Miami claiming a 44-3 win over then #11 LSU in Baton Rouge. These two teams have never met in post-season.
Analysis
An Atlanta tradition since 1968, it looks like this will be the final Peach Bowl. Officially this will be the Chick-Fil-A Bowl next year, with the title sponsor swallowing up the full name and what a match-up we get to watch. This contest will feature one of only three bowl games pitting a pair of Top 10 teams. Both teams are very similar as both have won recent national titles, attract enormous talent, have plenty of players on this field who will be in the NFL some day, and have had some impressive wins. One other thing they have in common is the fact that they’ve disappointed their fan bases this year. A pair of losses is too many for the fans of both teams, who expect BCS berths if not national championships on an annual basis.
These teams are statistically similar as well. Both clubs have top 5 defenses but neither has a top 50 offense. Miami leads the nation in two defensive categories – pass defense (148.2 ypg) and pass efficiency defense (84.57 rating) and it is second in scoring defense (11.9 ppg) and third in total defense (252.1 ypg). LSU ranks among the top 8 in the nation in four defensive categories, including a No. 5 ranking in both total defense (276.3 ypg) and pass efficiency defense (97.66 rating), as well as being No. 7 in rushing defense (94.75 ypg) and No. 8 in scoring defense (15.2 ppg). In addition, there are only three teams in college football who allow less than 3 yards per rush and less than 5½ yards per pass attempt, and these are two of them (Virginia Tech is the third). With both defenses being the superior units on the field, don’t be surprised if both teams struggle offensively.
Louisiana State is coming off a disappointing 34-14 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship game on Dec. 3 in the Georgia Dome. Les Miles has led the Tigers to a 7-1 mark in the SEC this season and is looking for win No. 11 in his first year as LSU’s head coach. The Tigers were led by strong-armed junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who suffered a shoulder injury in the SEC Championship game against Georgia. (Russell is out for this game: meaning back-up QB Matt Flynn will make the start. Flynn was just 3 of 11 for 36 yards with a TD and an int. in relief vs. the Bulldogs). Russell, who has thrown for 2,443 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, is complemented by the strong backfield tandem of Joseph Addai (781 yards, eight TDs) and Justin Vincent (457 yards, five TDs). Dwayne Bowe has pulled in a team-best 38 receptions for 659 yards and nine TDs. All-purpose man Skyler Green leads the the Tigers in punt returns (13.6 average, one TD) and kickoff returns (357 yards, 19.7 average) and is second on the team in receiving (32 receptions) and fourth on the team in rushing (111 yards). The stingy Tigers defense is anchored by All-SEC defensive lineman Claude Wroten (9.5 tackles for loss) and Melvin Oliver’s team-best 8.0 sacks. Defensive back LaRon Landry also took home All-SEC honors with a team-best three interceptions and 65 tackles. LSU comes into this contest having held nine of its last 10 opponents, seven of which are SEC foes, to 20 points or less. Prior to the Georgia game in the SEC Championship, LSU held nine straight opponents to 20 points. Over the past 10 games, LSU's defense has allowed a total of 121 points (7 vs. Mississippi State; 6 vs. Vanderbilt; 17 vs. Florida; 17 vs. Auburn; 3 vs. North Texas, 0 vs. Appalachian State, 13 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Ole Miss, 17 vs. Arkansas, 34 vs. Georgia) for an average of 12.1 points per game over that span.
Meanwhile, Miami’s “off and on” offense is led by sophomore quarterback Kyle Wright and senior All-America left tackle Eric Winston. Wright ranked second in the ACC with a 140.68 pass efficiency rating, completing 170 of 286 passes for 2,303 yards and 18 touchdowns, with only 10 interceptions in his first year as the Hurricanes’ starter. Senior wide receiver Sinorice Moss (35 receptions, 604 yards and six TDs) is Wright’s favorite target, with junior tight end Greg Olsen (31 receptions, 451 yards and four TDs) not far behind. Sophomore Charlie Jones has produced a majority of his 457 rushing yards and all of his five touchdowns since taking over the ball-carrying duties after Tyrone Moss went down with a season-ending knee injury against Virginia Tech on Nov. 5. As noted above, Miami is also one of the Nations top stopping units. Miami’s defense has only given up more than 17 points only once the entire season. Most of the Hurricanes’ DBs are able to cover one-on one, which allows the formidable front 7 to swarm to the ball.
Because sustained offensive drives in this game are likely to be few and far between, the fact that LSU will be without their starting QB becomes even more crucial. With him, it would have been no surprise if the Tigers ride their rushing edge to a small upset. Now LSU will ride their hopes on back-up QB Matt Flynn who isn’t even LSU’s second-best QB as their top recruiting stud true freshman Ryan Perrilloux is redshirting. Nineteen of Flynn’s 36 Yards passing against Georgia came when the game was already in the bags so to speak and Georgia wasn’t playing any defense. This might spell disaster for the Tigers.
While the Tigers have BCS talent their has been some controversy in Tiger nation over the coaching ability of first year HC Les Miles. Although their 10-2 record looks impressive, L.S.U. was not necessarily the better team on the field in many of those wins, as five of the Tiger victories came by four points or less, including a pair in overtime. The offense never did find a chemistry, and what should have been a dominating ground game with a deep corps of RB’s was not able to reach 200 yards in a game the entire season. Miami HC Larry Coker brings much more big-game experience to the table in this contest with his (3-1 SU and ATS record in bowl games, with the only loss coming in overtime). Look for an extremely low scoring contest so the under might be worth a look.
Forecast: LSU 10, Miami 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON LSU/MIAMI UNDER 41
OPINION SELECTION ON MIAMI -7
Music City Bowl - The Coliseum - Nashville, TN
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 12:00 PM
Virginia (6-5 overall, 3-5 ACC Coastal/5th)
Last Bowl:
vs
Minnesota (7-4 overall, 4-4 Big Ten/7th)
Last Bowl:
History
Minnesota will be appearing in their fourth consecutive bowl game for the first time in school history and this will also be the program’s sixth bowl appearance in the past seven seasons. The Gophers will join Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin as the only Big Ten teams to play in a bowl game in six of the past seven seasons. Minnesota has won each of its past three bowl games. The Gophers defeated Arkansas, 29-14, in the 2002 Music City Bowl, defeated Oregon, 31-30, in the 2003 Sun Bowl and won the 2004 Music City Bowl with a 20-16 victory over Alabama. The Gophers have also participated in the 1999 Sun Bowl and the 2000 Micronpc.com Bowl during head football coach Glen Mason’s nine seasons at Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 6-5 overall this season and are appearing in their fourth consecutive bowl game. Virginia has appeared in 15 bowls throughout its football history, posting a 6-9-0 record. The Cavaliers are 2-1 in their last three bowl games, all of which have come under head coach Al Groh. Virginia averaged 35 points per game in those three contests.
TRENDS
VIRGINIA:
Virginia is 1-4 ATS away this year, and 6-16 ATS away in their last 22 games.
Virginia is 1-5 SU against a Big 10 opponent since 1990.
Virginia is 1-8 ATS last nine away games when their last game was played UNDER.
Virginia is 6-17 ATS in away games while playing with rest.
MINNESOTA:
Minnesota is 2-0 SU & ATS in their past 2 Music City Bowl games.
Minnesota’s HC Glen Mason is 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
Minnesota is 17-0 SU against a non-conference opponent.
Minnesota is 6-0 ATS last 6 against a non-conference opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The Underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 Music City Bowl games.
VIRGINIA:
The Cavaliers finished fifth in the ACC’s Coastal Division, picking up conference wins over then-No. 4 Florida State, Duke and Georgia Tech. Cavalier place kicker Connor Hughes is fifth in ACC scoring history with 322 career points, while teammate Wali Lundy is 11th with 300.
Virginia Leaders:
Rushing: Wali Lundy (128-515 yards, 8 TDs)
Passing: Marques Hagans (311-188-2,134 yards, 12 TDs)
Receiving: Deyon Williams (52-679 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Al Groh
Career Record: 62-66 (11th year)
Record at Virginia: 36-26 (5th year)
MINNESOTA:
The Golden Gophers boast the No. 2 rush offense in the nation averaging 279.9 yards per game. Minnesota is undefeated in two Music City Bowls, picking up victories over Alabama last season and Arkansas in 2002, and boasts a 5-5 record in all postseason contests. The Big Ten has produced a 2-1 mark in the Music City Bowl.
Minnesota Leaders:
Rushing: Laurence Maroney (255-1,355 yards, 10 TDs) and
Gary Russell (164-1,045 yards, 18 TDs)
Passing: Bryan Cupito (269-158-2,267 yards, 15 TDs)
Receiving: Logan Payne (37-529 yards, 2 Tds)
Head Coach: Glen Mason
Career Record: 117-113-1 (20th year)
Record at Minnesota: 58-49 (9th year)
GAME NOTES: Virginia and Minnesota will be meeting for the first time when they tangle at the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl.
Analysis
If you like aerial fireworks this might not be the bowl game for you as the Gophers of Minnesota sport the nations 2nd best rushing attack, garnering nearly 280 yards per game. Minnesota (7-4 SU and ATS) got off to a hot start due to a weak non-conference schedule. As favorites against Tulsa, Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic respectively, the Golden Gophers had little problem covering the number in all three of their non-conference games. Of course their hot start was neutralized once conference play began. After opening Big Ten play up with Purdue, and eventual win over Michigan, the Gophers were destroyed by eventual conference champion Penn State, 44-14. Minnesota they continued their slide with losses against Wisconsin 34-38, Ohio State 31-45, and Iowa 52-28. Meanwhile, Virginia (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) had a similar downward seaon after playing their best football early one. Virginia was destroyed by in-state rival Virginia Tech, 52-14, then in the season finale lost to Miami, 25-17.
It is no secret that the Gophers will lean on their running attack, which ranks second in the nation, behind only Navy, and given the discrepancy in schedules between the two, they were probably the nation top rushing unit. Indeed, Minnesota rushed for over 3,000 yards at 5.5 per carry, and when facing non-conference bowl opponents they continued their success against the Colorado State and Tulsa defensive fronts for 656 yards at 6.4 per attempt. Minnesota's running dominance should continue versus a Virginia defense allowing 147 rushing yards per game at 4 yards per run. Most of that yardage came from RB Laurence Maroney, but as good as Maroney is it really didn't matter who ran the ball. "Backup" RB Gary Russell was used the first half of the season just to give Maroney a breather now and then. But in the sixth game against Michigan Russell had 18 carries for 128 yards including a 61-yard rumble that set up the winning score. Since then the run game has been a tandem effort and Russell ended the season with a higher YPR than Maroney. As they did the entire season, Minnesota game plan for this game is simple. Run, Run and Run again. Virgina will be in a lot of trouble here especially, if Minnesota gets rolling as they have one of the nations top offensive lines, which executes mostly within a zone-blocking scheme. Minnesota has two offensive linemen that will soon be heading to the NFL, OG Mark Setterstrom and Outland and Rimington This line is well coached and will not struggle with their assignments against Virginia's 3-4 scheme. Virginia is allowing 147 yards per game on the ground and must do better than that to compete with the Gophers.
Virginia’s offense starts and stops, at the quarterback position this season. Senior Marques Hagans runs the Cavaliers offense, and is an agile QB with the ability to tuck the ball and run for the first down in any situation. Hagans has completed better than 60 percent of his passes this season for 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He averaged 194 passing yards and 25.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Virginia had four running backs carry the ball 50 times or more this season, and only one of those backs averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Wali Lundy was the Cavaliers number one option over the regular season, carrying the ball 128 times for 515 yards and eight touchdowns. Virginia ran the ball 90 times more than they passed the ball, so expect that trend to continue as the Cavaliers try to keep Minnesota’s rushing attack off the field. Each of Virginia’s top three receivers averaged more than 13 yard per catch, and they had 15 players with a reception this season. Deyon Williams is Hagans’ top target with 52 receptions this season, tied for second-most in the ACC, for 679 yards and six touchdowns. The Gophers can’t overlook Virginia’s depth at the wideout position though, as Fontel Mines and Jonathan Stupar helped the Cavaliers top then-No. 4 Florida State back in October, with a combined 10 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. Virginia achilles heel has been their defense this season. Virginia’s defensive is susceptible to both the run (10th in the ACC, allowing 146.9 yards per game) and the pass (11th in the ACC, allowing 221.1 yards per game). But their performance has been below their potential, as they boast a couple of the best defensive players in the ACC. Linebacker Kai Parham was named first-team All-ACC and cornerback Marcus Hamilton was named to the second team. Parham, a junior inside linebacker, pairs with Ahmad Brooks to pose a threat over the middle for Minnesota’s passing game. Brooks missed time earlier this season. Parham is ranked 26th in the nation in pass rushing, with 8.5 sacks in 11 games.
A small mention of the Virginia coaching situation is warranted. Virginia will come into this contest with no fewer than four Cavalier assistant coaches, including both their offensive and defensive coordinators, leaving the program prior to this contest. Virginia lost offensive coordinator Ron Prince to take over the head coaching job at Kansas State, defensive coordinator Al Golden to Temple, and LB coach Frank Rocco to Liberty. Say what you want about it, but continuity means something in college football and Virginia is without it right now. Imagine the assignment for the coach who will have to fill in for the departed defensive coordinator Al Golden. He has to somehow devise a game plan to stop this relentless rushing attack.
Clearly, this game will come down to one question...will Virginia be able to stop the high power rushing attack of Minnesota? Virginia was run over by Virginia Tech for 333 rushing yards, and Minnesota comes into this contest with even more potent attack. To make matters worse for Virginia, strong safety Nate Lyles is out for this contest, which will create even more holes in this defense. However, the special teams edge goes to the Cavaliers, who feature first-team ACC kicker Connor Hughes. Virginia will need a big offensive showing to keep pace with Minnesota, and Hagans will need to make enough plays and protect the football to pull off the win. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Both offenses should have success moving the football so the OVER is the play.
Forecast: Virginia 31, Minnesota 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON VIRGINIA/MINNESOTA OVER 59
OPNION SELECTION ON VIRGINIA +6
Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 2:00 PM
Northwestern (7-4 overall, 5-3 Big Ten/T3rd)
Last Bowl:
vs
UCLA (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)
History:
This year will mark Northwestern's first-ever appearance in the Sun Bowl, while UCLA participated in the 1991 and 2000 Sun Bowls. Overall, this will be UCLA's 27th bowl appearance, while Northwestern will be making its sixth all-time bowl appearance. The Wildcats clinched their sixth bowl trip in school history and head coach Randy Walker has guided the school to three postseason games, including their first-ever berths in the Alamo Bowl (2000) and Motor City Bowl (2003). Big Ten programs have built a 5-6 mark in the Sun Bowl, including a narrow loss by Purdue to Arizona State last season.
TRENDS
NORTHWESTERN:
Northwestern has never won a bowl game going 0-4 SU since 1995.
Northwestern is 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
Ucla owns the nation's worst run defense. Northwestern is 20-2 ATS as an underdog when they rush for more than 200 yards.
Northwestern is 0-7-1 SU and 2-6 ATS against a PAC-10 opponent.
Northwestern is 22-9 ATS in away games on artificial turf
Northwestern is 6-0 ATS last 6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA:
UCLA HC Karl Dorrell is 0-2 SU & ATS in Bowl games.
UCLA is 2-7 ATS in their lat 9 bowl games.
UCLA is 1-7 ATS as a favorite in their last 8 bowl games
UCLA is 0-4 ATS last 4 away games this season.
UCLA is 2-10 ATS in away games after playing a conference game.
UCLA is 9-2 OVER in all games this season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog in the Sun Bowl is 13-1-2 ATS in the last 16 games.
The favorite is 0-10 ATS in the last 10 Sun Bowl games.
NORTHWESTERN:
Minnesota will be coming into this contest without defensive tackle Trevor Schultz (6 starts), sophomore corner back Deante Battle (started 6 of the last 7 games), and 6-4 sophomore backup WR Kim Thompson are suspended for either academics or violation of team rules. NW coach Randy Walker says NW has players who can step up to replace them, but that the Wildcats will now be hurting for depth at those positions.
Northwestern Leaders:
Rushing: Tyrell Sutton (232-1,390 yards, 16 TDs)
Passing: Brett Basanez (427-276-3,206 yards, 19 TDs)
Receiving: Shaun Herbert (72-801 yards, 5 Tds)
Head Coach: Randy Walker
Career Record: 96-80-5 (16th year)
Record at Northwestern: 37-45 (7th year)
UCLA:
UCLA senior kicker Justin Medlock (13 of 17 TY; all-Pac-10 selection) is suspended following his involvement in an alcohol-related accident. His backup is a walk-on freshman.
UCLA Leaders:
Rushing: Maurice Drew (183-900 yards, 13 TDs)
Passing: Drew Olson (354-232-3,055 yards, 31 TDs)
Receiving: Marcedes Lewis (58-741 yards, 10 Tds)
Head Coach: Karl Dorrell
Career Record: 21-15 (3rd year)
Record at UCLA: 21-15 (3rd year)
GAME NOTES: The 2005 Vitalis Sun Bowl will mark the sixth time these two teams have met, but the first since 1970. Northwestern holds a 3-2 advantage in the series, but the Bruins have won the last two meetings.
Analysis
This may be the most explosive game of the bowl season as both offenses have distinct advantages over their below average defenses. Against opponents selected to bowl games this season, Northwestern allowed 40 points per game, 519 yards per game, and 6.8 yards per play. UCLA, meanwhile incredible faired worse allowing 41 points, 535 yards, and 6.3 yards per play. In their last 6 games, UCLA allowed over 48 yards per game. Northwestern allowed 33 or more 6 times. Indeed both defenses rank 108th or worse in total yardage, rushing yardage, and passing yardage. It is very difficult to be quite that terrible at both rushing and passing defense, but these teams manage the trick.
The No. 17 UCLA Bruins bring the nation's seventh highest scoring offense to El Paso, averaging 38.09 points per game. The Bruins also average 429 yards per game of total offense, with 281.9 yards coming through the air. The Bruin offensive attack is lead by Quarterback Drew Olson who had a phenomenal year, passing for 3,055 yards with an unbelievable 31:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. UCLA has a bevy of receivers that Olson targets, including Marcedes Lewis, who accounted for 58 catches, 741 yards and 10 touchdowns. His size at the tight end position will be a nightmare for Northwestern. UCLA is not one dimensions, as Maurice Drew provided a solid balance this season, rushing for 900 yards and 13 touchdowns. When UCLA has the football, they possess a fundamental matchup advantage over their opponent as there is simply no way Northwestern’s secondary can match up with the speed and receiving talent of the dynamic Bruins corps. Considering that the Northwestern pass defense allows 272.5 passing yards per game and was torched for 325 or more five times look for a stat-padding day for all for all of the UCLA offensive personnel. UCLA should also have a field day on the ground versus NU’s 5.1 yards per carry allowed run defense. The Wildcats ranked 117th in the nation on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 483 yards per game.
Northwestern is also an offensive juggernaut, but slightly below the caliber of the aforementioned Bruins. Northwestern rank eighth in the nation in total offense averaging 492.7 yards per game this season, including 296.8 yards per game through the air. Northwestern finished with the eighth best offense in the land, chalking up 493 yards per game. The Gophers possess a balanced offensive attack averaging 196.3 yards per game rushing and 296.3 passing. Northwestern is led by senior Brett Basanez as he completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,206 yards. Basanez is not the only star in this unit as this Northwestern team very well might not be here without the play of true freshman running back Tyrell Sutton. The explosive Sutton garnered 1,390 yards on the ground, while scoring 16 times. QB Brett Basanez has led the team to impressive 415+ total yardage outings against some of the better defense in the country Penn State, Iowa & Michigan. Minnesota should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field against the defensively challenged Bruins. Freshman RB Tyrell Sutton is an explosive player and he also serves as a solid receiver in Northwestern’s diverse passing game. Fundamentally, UCLA might be able to contain or at the very least slow down the Wildcat passing attack, but when Northwestern decides to run the ball (something they do very well), U.C.L.A. will be in for a boatload of trouble as they were the worst team in Division I-A football against the run. They gave up a staggering 239 yards per game on the ground. Expect Northwestern to employ a game plan that establishes the run early and then finds passing success off of that. Heres something to consider, UCLA run defense is so bad that it's easier to run the ball on the Bruins than it is against the likes of Temple, Duke, and Florida Atlantic. As stated above, the problem with Northwestern is that its has the worst total defense in the nation! That of course means that its easier to gain any kind of yards against Northwestern than it is against the aforementioned Temple, Duke or Florida Atlantic!
Motivation might be a huge factor in this contest. Despite UCLA’s 9-2 record, they have to settle for playing in El Paso, Texas, rather than a new years day game. Normally such motivational factors would be given a small amount of weight, but a look at the trends in this bowl certainly makes us look harder at UCLA’s motivation. Indeed, the favorite in the Sun bowl is 0-10 ATS in the last 10 Sun Bowl games while the underdog comes into this contest with a stellar 13-1-2 ATS mark in the last 16 games. Also, consider that UCLA has absolutely thrown in the towel in each of the last two years, losing as favorites to Fresno State and Wyoming. Also important to note is that the Wildcats haven't won a bowl game since 1946, so you can count on a Northwestern team that's extremely happy to be in this game.
What makes this game so difficult to forecast, is that really is not any difference between these two teams, and if there is a difference, it would take someone a whole lot more perceptive than any of us to determine what it is. Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin and should have beaten Penn State while UCLA numbered Oklahoma, California and Arizona State among its victims. But, Northwestern was decapitated by that same Arizona State team and humiliated by the Buckeyes while UCLA was brutalized by Arizona and disemboweled by Southern Cal. Considering UCLA’s final 7 games had total scoring of 85, 80, 66, 57, 75, 89, and 87 the only recommendation I would even consider is the OVER.
Forecast: Northwestern 346, UCLA 347
OPINION SELECTION ON NORTHWESTERN/UCLA OVER 74
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
3* MISSOURI +4
1* LSU/MIAMI UNDER 41
1* VIRGINIA/MINNESOTA OVER 59
Opinions: MIAMI -7, VIRGINIA +6; NORTHWESTERN/UCLA OVER 74
--------------------------------------------------
MISSOURI (6 - 5) vs. S CAROLINA (7 - 4)
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 3:30 PM
Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
vs History
For the 2nd time in 3 seasons under Head Coach Gary Pinkel, Missouri is playing in a post-season bowl game. This bowl appearance will mark only the 4th for the Tiger program since 1983. Mizzou's last bowl game also came at the Independence Bowl, when MU lost to Arkansas in the 2003 Independence Bowl by a 27-14 score. Missouri is 9-13 in bowl games, its last win coming in the 1998 Insight.com Bowl. Meanwhile, The 2005 Independence Bowl will mark Carolina's 12th bowl appearance overall and the Gamecocks first bowl appearance since the 2001 season when they defeated Ohio State, 31-28, in the Outback Bowl. Carolina is 3-8 all-time in bowl games, but has won each of its last three bowl games, topping West Virginia, 24-21 in the 1995 Carquest Bowl, before posting back-to-back Outback Bowl wins over Ohio State in 2001 and 2002. Missouri and South Carolina have met only once previously, with the Tigers claiming a 24-14 victory in the 1979 Hall of Fame Bowl, played in Birmingham, Ala.
Missouri (6-5, 4-4 Big 12)
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (Kent State, 1975)
Career Record: 101-67-3 (15th year)
Record at Missouri: 28-30 (5th year))
Last Bowl: 2003 Independence Bowl (Missouri 14, Arkansas 27)
South Carolina (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)
Head Coach: Steve Spurrier (Florida, 1967)
Career Record: 149-44-2 (16th year)
Record at South Carolina: 7-4 (1st year)
Last Bowl: 2002 Outback Bowl (South Carolina 31, Ohio State 28)
Missouri Leaders:
Rushing: Brad Smith (11 G, 208-1,306 yards, 13 TD)
Passing: Brad Smith (11 G, 362-216-8-2,022 yards, 12 TD)
Receiving: Martin Rucker (11 G, 42-484 yards, 1 TD)
South Carolina Leaders:
Rushing: Mike Davis (11 G, 128-574 yards, 3 TD)
Passing: Blake Mitchell (10 G, 277-166-9-2,104 yards, 15 TD)
Receiving: Sidney Rice (10 G, 58-952 yards, 12 TD)
MISSOURI:
In 25 previous match-ups with teams currently in the SEC, MU stands 16-8-1 all time. Mizzou also has a stellar record in bowl games versus the SEC, as the Tigers stand 5-2 all time in bowl games versus the league. Mizzou had won 5 straight over SEC teams in bowl games dating from the 1965 Sugar Bowl (20-18 over Florida) through the 1979 Hall of Fame Bowl (24-14 over South Carolina), before having that streak broken in 2003 Independence bowl, losing 27-14 to Arkansas.
SOUTH CAROLINA:
The Gamecocks are 6-8 in 14 all-time meetings against schools that currently reside in the Big 12 Conference. They have a winning record against Kansas State (2-1), Texas (1-0) and Iowa State (1-0). They are 1-1 against Oklahoma State and 1-2 versus Baylor and are winless against Missouri (0-1) and Nebraska (0-3). The Gamecocks last meeting against a Big 12 opponent came on October 3, 1987 when they dropped a 30-21 decision at Nebraska. Their last win over a Big 12 foe came on October 6, 1984 when they defeated K-State in Columbia by a 49-17 margin.
COACHING NOTES: MU Head Coach Gary Pinkel has fared pretty well in bowl games as a coach. Pinkel carries a 9-4 coaching record in bowl games into MU's matchup with South Carolina in the 2005 Independence Bowl. Pinkel is 1-1 as a head coach in bowl games, after his Mizzou Tigers were defeated by Arkansas in the 2003 Independence Bowl, 27-14. As head coach at Toledo, Pinkel's Rockets beat Nevada in the 1995 Las Vegas Bowl, 40-37 in overtime. That game was the first-ever overtime game played under the current overtime rules. As a top assistant coach under the legendary Don James at Washington, Pinkel coached in 11 bowl games in 12 years, from 1979-90, and the Huskies went a solid 8-3 in those outings. Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier was named the Southeastern Conference Coach of the Year, as selected by the Associated Press. For Spurrier, it was the eighth time he has been named his conference Coach of the Year. Previously he won the award at Duke in 1988 and 1989 and at Florida in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Steve Spurrier also joins Jim Carlen (1975) and Brad Scott (1994) as coaches that led the Gamecocks to a bowl game in their first season as head coach. Spurrier will be coaching in his 13th bowl game in his career. He owns a 6-6 record in his 12 previous bowl contests. He took the Duke Blue Devils to the 1989 All-American Bowl, then took Florida to 11 bowl appearances in 12 seasons as the Gators' coach, where he logged a 6-5 record. The only year that Florida did not go to a bowl game was following the 1990 season when they were on probation, but still posted a 9-2 regular season record.
CONFERENCE NOTES: The Southeastern Conference has found the going pretty good when they have played in the Independence Bowl. SEC teams have logged an 11-1 record in this bowl, with the only loss coming by Ole Miss to Air Force by a 9-3 count in the 1983 contest. Since that
setback, the SEC has posted 11 straight wins.
GAME NOTES: This will be only the second all time meeting between these teams. Missouri defeated South Carolina 24-14 in their only other meeting in Hall of Fame Bowl in Birmingham, Ala. The Independence Bowl will be played on synthetic grass (AstroPlay). It will mark the first time all season that Carolina has not played on a traditional grass surface.
TRENDS
MISSOURI:
Missouri is 0-3 ATS last three bowl games.
Missouri is 0-3 ATS as an underdog this year, but 6-1 ATS previous two seasons.
SOUTH CAROLINA:
South Carolina is 3-1 ATS away this year.
South Carolina is 10-2 ATS (7-0 ATS as a favorite) when playing with rest against a non-conference opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog is 12-5 ATS last 17 Independence Bowl games.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 Independence bowl games.
Analysis
The South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4, 5-3 Southeastern Conference) face the Missouri Tigers (6-5, 4-4 Big 12) in the 30th annual Independence Bowl. Carolina finished the season with five wins in its last six games to finish the season with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the SEC, good for second place in the Eastern Division in the first year of the "Steve Spurrier Era." During their final stretch run, Carolina posted a five-game SEC winning streak with consecutive wins over Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida and had non-conference wins over UCF and Troy. The Gamecocks' four losses were against Georgia, Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. Those four schools had a combined regular season record of 35-10 and are ranked eighth, 13th, 7th and 23rd respectively in the final regular season Associated Press poll. Meanwhile, Missouri checks in with their 6-5 record and 4-4 in the Big 12 North which amazingly earned them second place in that division. Missouri 6 wins were against Arkansas State, Troy, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Nebraska and Baylor. None of those teams with the exception of Iowa State and possible exception of Nebraska would be the caliber of South Carolina's opponents. Missouri's 5 losses came against Kansas, New Mexico, Kansas State, and they were completely blow out of the water against Texas and Colorado. The bottom line is South Carolina has performed better against a much tougher slate, and this game should be a step down in class for them.
South Carolina is led by the SEC Coach of the Year Steve Spurrier and although Spurrier was able to completely turn around the Gamecock program in his first year, he has not been without his critics. In prior years Spurrier showed a proclivity for spreading the field and airing the ball with great success, which produced big offensive numbers. However, this season, the South Carolina offense has been viewed as "too conservative" by many critics as they have actually ran the ball slightly more than they have thrown it. However, this critique against South Carolina is unwarranted as South Carolina had to endure eight of the nation's Top 36 total yardage defenses. Consider that in those eight games, South Carolina averaged just 275.3 total yards, but in the other three versus lesser defenses, the Gamecocks averaged 393 yards. Now consider how Spurreir's Gamecock's will fair against the Missouri defense that allowed 365 yards per game, which becomes excessively worse when you realize they played seven offenses ranked 79th or worse and just two in the Top 40. Spurrier obviously has plenty of time to dissect this step down in defensive class, and with the 15 extra preparation sessions, figure the playbook to be opened a little wider, with a possible return to his pass oriented ideology. South Carolina certainly has the personnel to pull off a high power offense as they are lead by sophomore quarterback Blake Mitchell who was solid in his first season as a starter, completing 166 of 277 passes for 2,104 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Freshman Mike Davis was South Carolina's top rusher, gaining 541 yards on 128 carries, while senior Daccus Turman had 245 yards on 59 attempts. Expect Carolina to establish the running game early, to open up the passing lanes.
On the defensive side of the football it will be all about containing Missouri's stud QB Brad Smith. Indeed, few would argue that Smith is probably the most explosive offensive player on either team. Smith is a big play waiting to happen, as he can make plays with his feet and his arm. On the season Smith completed 216 of 362 passes for 2,022 yards, and he's also the Big 12's leading rusher, averaging 104.6 rushing yards per game (1,151 total rushing yards).Smith also become the first player in NCAA Division I-A history to pass for 2,000 and run for 1,000 in two seasons. South Carolina's strong pass defense, which ranks 12th in the country allowing just 176.5 yards per game, has the ability to get the best of Missouri's air attack, but the unit must slow Smith or it will be caught on its heels. Indeed Missouri averaged 205 rushing yards per game and they will have a fundamental match-up advantage over the Gamecocks rush defense that hasn't been good this season, allowing 172.1 rushing yards per game. Thus, it will be critical for the Gamecocks to keep him in the pocket and tackle well when he is able to break containment. If they don't, Smith has the speed and elusiveness to break some long runs. Making matters worse for South Carolina is that it can't be overaggressive. If its linebackers or safeties start to play run before Smith crosses the line of scrimmage, he throws well enough on the run to hit the open receiver downfield.
The motivation/distraction factor clearly ears to the side of South Carolina. Prior to the start of the season, Spurrier gave his team three goals, a winning year, a bowl invitation a Top 25 ranking (Cocks now ranked 27th). Having an chance to accomplish all three of those goals means a lot to South Carolina's program, and now they have confidence heading into the match-up with Missouri. Meanwhile, the warm seat that Missouri Gary Pinkel was sitting on prior to the start of the season has been progressively getting hotter and hotter (word is several assistants concerned about job security), since he has gone just 28-30 despite having highly-athletic Brad Smith, who has set 52 school, Big XII or NCAA records. But then again, there are reports that Pinkel likes it at Missouri (players and coaches also seem to have a love affair with him) and has been motivating his team to put all out effort in an attempt to keep his job for next season.
Although I have remained neutral for most of my bowl previews I'm going to take a stand here and discuss this game from my perspective as somebody who will be betting this game, and taking the side of Missouri. Early betting indicators are showing that 85% of the bets being placed on this game are on South Carolina. That is no surprise as the "public" loves the story of a 1st year coach turning around his program, and the Steve Spurrier.blah.blah.blah. All of that seems really sexy to the casual bettor. But lets be honest here, South Carolina is a team that possesses only ordinary talent and is a solid favorite, and having only beaten Kentucky and Troy State all season in double figures, and without a single road win by more than this point spread. Moreover, and this is where it gets good, Missouri averaged 205 yards per game on the ground while South Carolina comes into this contest averaging just 91 yards per game. That's a whopping 114 yard differential. In fact, only eight Division I teams ran the football less efficiently than the Gamecocks did while just 18 ran it better than Missouri. Teams who average 75 rushing yards a game more than their .666 or less opponent were 21-6 to the number since 1980 and of course Missouri is one of those. This game also has the potential where the underdog doubles the rushing yards of its opponent. That situation has happened 62 times since 1980. The favorite in those games covered the spread just nine times equating to a woeful 9-53 ATS mark. For those of you not very good at math that amount to the favorite covering only 16.9% on the time and that's about home many people are betting on Missouri. Those "COCKS" bettors will be left holding only their "COCKS" as we will have the cash in our hands! Take the points!
Forecast: Missouri 28, South Carolina 21
PLAY 3* UNITS ON MISSOURI +4
Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 7:30 PM
Miami (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)Last Bowl: 2004 Peach Bowl (Miami 27, Florida 10)
vs
LSU (10-2, 7-1 SEC Western Division Co-Champions)Last Bowl: 2005 Capital One Bowl (LSU 25, Iowa 30)
History
Miami and Louisiana State will be meeting for the 12th time ever and for only the second time in 36 years. The Tigers lead the series 8-3. The two teams last played in 1988, a 44-3 Miami victory. Prior to that, they had not played since 1969. Miami returns to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl one year after defeating Florida 27-10 on December 31, 2004. This will be the third appearance for the Hurricanes in the Peach Bowl. On Jan. 2, 1981, the Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech 20-10 in the Peach Bowl in a game that has been credited as the turning point in the Miami football program. Prior to that Peach Bowl, Miami had not appeared in a bowl game for 14 years. Since that game, the Hurricanes have qualified for 21 bowl games in 25 years. Overall, Miami is making its 32nd bowl appearance. The Hurricanes have a record of 18-13 in 31 previous bowl games. LSU will be making their fourth appearance in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and the first since a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in 2000. LSU beat Florida State, 31-27, in the 1968 Peach Bowl and then posted a 10-7 victory over Clemson in the 1996 Peach Bowl. LSU will also be appearing in a bowl game for the 37th time, which includes a school record streak of six consecutive seasons with a bowl trip. Since 2000, the Tigers have appeared in the Nokia Sugar Bowl twice, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl twice, the Cotton Bowl and the Capital One Bowl.
TRENDS
LSU:
LSU HC Les Miles is 10-3 ATS off an SU & ATS loss.
MIAMI:
Miami is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last 8 bowl appearances.
Miami HC Larry Coker is 3-1 SU & ATS in his 4 games while coaching at Miami.
Miami is 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year and 16-27 ATS as a favorite since 2002.
Miami is 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less points since 2002.
Miami is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS away against an SEC opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 13 Peach Bowl games. (Favored Miami won ATS against Florida last year)
LSU:
LSU starting quarterback JaMarcus Russell did not accompany the Tigers to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. Russell, who injured his left shoulder Dec. 3, remained in Baton Rouge for treatment and rehabilitation, meaning Matt Flynn will make his first start in Friday's Peach Bowl. Miles said that walk-on Jimmy Welker will serve as Flynn's backup at quarterback against Miami. Welker, who has served as the LSU's scout team quarterback all season, has never played in a college game. LSU was second in the SEC and fifth in the nation in total defense (276.3 ypg). The Tigers were also third in SEC and seventh in nation in rushing defense (94.8 ypg). Five of LSU's 10 wins have come by four points or less, which includes a 2-point win over Arkansas (19-17), 3-point wins over Auburn (20-17) and Alabama (16-13) and 4-point wins over Arizona State (35-31) and Florida (21-17). The Auburn and Alabama wins came in overtime.
LSU Leaders:
Rushing: Joseph Addai (12 G, 163-781 yards, 8 TD)
Passing: JaMarcus Russell (12 G, 188-311, 2,443 yards, 15 TD)
Receiving: Dwayne Bowe (11 G, 38-659 yards, 9 TD)
Head Coach: Les Miles (Michigan, '76)
Career Record: 38-23 (5th year)
Record at LSU: 10-2 (1st year)
MIAMI:
Miami wide receiver Ryan Moore has been suspended for violating team policy and will not play in the Peach Bowl against No. 10 LSU on Friday night. Moore had 28 catches, third-most on the team, for 464 yards and four touchdowns this season. Lance Leggett will likely replace Moore in the starting lineup.
Miami Leaders:
Rushing: Tyrone Moss (8 G, 137-701 yards, 12 TD)
Passing: Kyle Wright (11 G, 170-286, 2,303 yards, 18 TD)
Receiving: Sinorice Moss (11 G, 35-604 yards, 6 TD)
Head Coach: Larry Coker (Northeastern, '70)
Career Record: 53-8 (5th year)
Record at Miami: 53-8 (5th year)
COACHING NOTES: LSU coach Les Miles will coach in a bowl game for the fourth time when the Tigers face Miami. Miles led Oklahoma State to three bowl games in four years before joining LSU for the 2005 season. Miles is 1-2 in bowl games, with his win coming against Southern Miss by a 33-23 count in the Houston Bowl in 2002. He also coached the Cowboys in the 2003 Cotton Bowl and the 2004 Alamo Bowl. Ole Miss beat Oklahoma State, 31-28, in the Cotton Bowl, while Ohio State posted a 33-7 victory over the Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl.
GAME NOTES: This years Peach Bowl features two top 10 teams for the first time in its history as the ninth-ranked Hurricanes face the No. 10 Tigers at the Georgia Dome on Dec. 30. It's one of only three bowl games this season pitting two top 10 teams against each other. No. 1 Southern California plays No. 2 Texas in the Rose Bowl for the national championship, and fourth-ranked Ohio State meets fifth-ranked Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. LSU leads the all time series with Miami, 8-3. The teams last met on Nov. 19, 1988, with #3-ranked Miami claiming a 44-3 win over then #11 LSU in Baton Rouge. These two teams have never met in post-season.
Analysis
An Atlanta tradition since 1968, it looks like this will be the final Peach Bowl. Officially this will be the Chick-Fil-A Bowl next year, with the title sponsor swallowing up the full name and what a match-up we get to watch. This contest will feature one of only three bowl games pitting a pair of Top 10 teams. Both teams are very similar as both have won recent national titles, attract enormous talent, have plenty of players on this field who will be in the NFL some day, and have had some impressive wins. One other thing they have in common is the fact that they’ve disappointed their fan bases this year. A pair of losses is too many for the fans of both teams, who expect BCS berths if not national championships on an annual basis.
These teams are statistically similar as well. Both clubs have top 5 defenses but neither has a top 50 offense. Miami leads the nation in two defensive categories – pass defense (148.2 ypg) and pass efficiency defense (84.57 rating) and it is second in scoring defense (11.9 ppg) and third in total defense (252.1 ypg). LSU ranks among the top 8 in the nation in four defensive categories, including a No. 5 ranking in both total defense (276.3 ypg) and pass efficiency defense (97.66 rating), as well as being No. 7 in rushing defense (94.75 ypg) and No. 8 in scoring defense (15.2 ppg). In addition, there are only three teams in college football who allow less than 3 yards per rush and less than 5½ yards per pass attempt, and these are two of them (Virginia Tech is the third). With both defenses being the superior units on the field, don’t be surprised if both teams struggle offensively.
Louisiana State is coming off a disappointing 34-14 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship game on Dec. 3 in the Georgia Dome. Les Miles has led the Tigers to a 7-1 mark in the SEC this season and is looking for win No. 11 in his first year as LSU’s head coach. The Tigers were led by strong-armed junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who suffered a shoulder injury in the SEC Championship game against Georgia. (Russell is out for this game: meaning back-up QB Matt Flynn will make the start. Flynn was just 3 of 11 for 36 yards with a TD and an int. in relief vs. the Bulldogs). Russell, who has thrown for 2,443 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, is complemented by the strong backfield tandem of Joseph Addai (781 yards, eight TDs) and Justin Vincent (457 yards, five TDs). Dwayne Bowe has pulled in a team-best 38 receptions for 659 yards and nine TDs. All-purpose man Skyler Green leads the the Tigers in punt returns (13.6 average, one TD) and kickoff returns (357 yards, 19.7 average) and is second on the team in receiving (32 receptions) and fourth on the team in rushing (111 yards). The stingy Tigers defense is anchored by All-SEC defensive lineman Claude Wroten (9.5 tackles for loss) and Melvin Oliver’s team-best 8.0 sacks. Defensive back LaRon Landry also took home All-SEC honors with a team-best three interceptions and 65 tackles. LSU comes into this contest having held nine of its last 10 opponents, seven of which are SEC foes, to 20 points or less. Prior to the Georgia game in the SEC Championship, LSU held nine straight opponents to 20 points. Over the past 10 games, LSU's defense has allowed a total of 121 points (7 vs. Mississippi State; 6 vs. Vanderbilt; 17 vs. Florida; 17 vs. Auburn; 3 vs. North Texas, 0 vs. Appalachian State, 13 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Ole Miss, 17 vs. Arkansas, 34 vs. Georgia) for an average of 12.1 points per game over that span.
Meanwhile, Miami’s “off and on” offense is led by sophomore quarterback Kyle Wright and senior All-America left tackle Eric Winston. Wright ranked second in the ACC with a 140.68 pass efficiency rating, completing 170 of 286 passes for 2,303 yards and 18 touchdowns, with only 10 interceptions in his first year as the Hurricanes’ starter. Senior wide receiver Sinorice Moss (35 receptions, 604 yards and six TDs) is Wright’s favorite target, with junior tight end Greg Olsen (31 receptions, 451 yards and four TDs) not far behind. Sophomore Charlie Jones has produced a majority of his 457 rushing yards and all of his five touchdowns since taking over the ball-carrying duties after Tyrone Moss went down with a season-ending knee injury against Virginia Tech on Nov. 5. As noted above, Miami is also one of the Nations top stopping units. Miami’s defense has only given up more than 17 points only once the entire season. Most of the Hurricanes’ DBs are able to cover one-on one, which allows the formidable front 7 to swarm to the ball.
Because sustained offensive drives in this game are likely to be few and far between, the fact that LSU will be without their starting QB becomes even more crucial. With him, it would have been no surprise if the Tigers ride their rushing edge to a small upset. Now LSU will ride their hopes on back-up QB Matt Flynn who isn’t even LSU’s second-best QB as their top recruiting stud true freshman Ryan Perrilloux is redshirting. Nineteen of Flynn’s 36 Yards passing against Georgia came when the game was already in the bags so to speak and Georgia wasn’t playing any defense. This might spell disaster for the Tigers.
While the Tigers have BCS talent their has been some controversy in Tiger nation over the coaching ability of first year HC Les Miles. Although their 10-2 record looks impressive, L.S.U. was not necessarily the better team on the field in many of those wins, as five of the Tiger victories came by four points or less, including a pair in overtime. The offense never did find a chemistry, and what should have been a dominating ground game with a deep corps of RB’s was not able to reach 200 yards in a game the entire season. Miami HC Larry Coker brings much more big-game experience to the table in this contest with his (3-1 SU and ATS record in bowl games, with the only loss coming in overtime). Look for an extremely low scoring contest so the under might be worth a look.
Forecast: LSU 10, Miami 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON LSU/MIAMI UNDER 41
OPINION SELECTION ON MIAMI -7
Music City Bowl - The Coliseum - Nashville, TN
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 12:00 PM
Virginia (6-5 overall, 3-5 ACC Coastal/5th)Last Bowl:
vs
Minnesota (7-4 overall, 4-4 Big Ten/7th)Last Bowl:
History
Minnesota will be appearing in their fourth consecutive bowl game for the first time in school history and this will also be the program’s sixth bowl appearance in the past seven seasons. The Gophers will join Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin as the only Big Ten teams to play in a bowl game in six of the past seven seasons. Minnesota has won each of its past three bowl games. The Gophers defeated Arkansas, 29-14, in the 2002 Music City Bowl, defeated Oregon, 31-30, in the 2003 Sun Bowl and won the 2004 Music City Bowl with a 20-16 victory over Alabama. The Gophers have also participated in the 1999 Sun Bowl and the 2000 Micronpc.com Bowl during head football coach Glen Mason’s nine seasons at Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 6-5 overall this season and are appearing in their fourth consecutive bowl game. Virginia has appeared in 15 bowls throughout its football history, posting a 6-9-0 record. The Cavaliers are 2-1 in their last three bowl games, all of which have come under head coach Al Groh. Virginia averaged 35 points per game in those three contests.
TRENDS
VIRGINIA:
Virginia is 1-4 ATS away this year, and 6-16 ATS away in their last 22 games.
Virginia is 1-5 SU against a Big 10 opponent since 1990.
Virginia is 1-8 ATS last nine away games when their last game was played UNDER.
Virginia is 6-17 ATS in away games while playing with rest.
MINNESOTA:
Minnesota is 2-0 SU & ATS in their past 2 Music City Bowl games.
Minnesota’s HC Glen Mason is 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
Minnesota is 17-0 SU against a non-conference opponent.
Minnesota is 6-0 ATS last 6 against a non-conference opponent.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The Underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 Music City Bowl games.
VIRGINIA:
The Cavaliers finished fifth in the ACC’s Coastal Division, picking up conference wins over then-No. 4 Florida State, Duke and Georgia Tech. Cavalier place kicker Connor Hughes is fifth in ACC scoring history with 322 career points, while teammate Wali Lundy is 11th with 300.
Virginia Leaders:
Rushing: Wali Lundy (128-515 yards, 8 TDs)
Passing: Marques Hagans (311-188-2,134 yards, 12 TDs)
Receiving: Deyon Williams (52-679 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Al Groh
Career Record: 62-66 (11th year)
Record at Virginia: 36-26 (5th year)
MINNESOTA:
The Golden Gophers boast the No. 2 rush offense in the nation averaging 279.9 yards per game. Minnesota is undefeated in two Music City Bowls, picking up victories over Alabama last season and Arkansas in 2002, and boasts a 5-5 record in all postseason contests. The Big Ten has produced a 2-1 mark in the Music City Bowl.
Minnesota Leaders:
Rushing: Laurence Maroney (255-1,355 yards, 10 TDs) and
Gary Russell (164-1,045 yards, 18 TDs)
Passing: Bryan Cupito (269-158-2,267 yards, 15 TDs)
Receiving: Logan Payne (37-529 yards, 2 Tds)
Head Coach: Glen Mason
Career Record: 117-113-1 (20th year)
Record at Minnesota: 58-49 (9th year)
GAME NOTES: Virginia and Minnesota will be meeting for the first time when they tangle at the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl.
Analysis
If you like aerial fireworks this might not be the bowl game for you as the Gophers of Minnesota sport the nations 2nd best rushing attack, garnering nearly 280 yards per game. Minnesota (7-4 SU and ATS) got off to a hot start due to a weak non-conference schedule. As favorites against Tulsa, Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic respectively, the Golden Gophers had little problem covering the number in all three of their non-conference games. Of course their hot start was neutralized once conference play began. After opening Big Ten play up with Purdue, and eventual win over Michigan, the Gophers were destroyed by eventual conference champion Penn State, 44-14. Minnesota they continued their slide with losses against Wisconsin 34-38, Ohio State 31-45, and Iowa 52-28. Meanwhile, Virginia (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) had a similar downward seaon after playing their best football early one. Virginia was destroyed by in-state rival Virginia Tech, 52-14, then in the season finale lost to Miami, 25-17.
It is no secret that the Gophers will lean on their running attack, which ranks second in the nation, behind only Navy, and given the discrepancy in schedules between the two, they were probably the nation top rushing unit. Indeed, Minnesota rushed for over 3,000 yards at 5.5 per carry, and when facing non-conference bowl opponents they continued their success against the Colorado State and Tulsa defensive fronts for 656 yards at 6.4 per attempt. Minnesota's running dominance should continue versus a Virginia defense allowing 147 rushing yards per game at 4 yards per run. Most of that yardage came from RB Laurence Maroney, but as good as Maroney is it really didn't matter who ran the ball. "Backup" RB Gary Russell was used the first half of the season just to give Maroney a breather now and then. But in the sixth game against Michigan Russell had 18 carries for 128 yards including a 61-yard rumble that set up the winning score. Since then the run game has been a tandem effort and Russell ended the season with a higher YPR than Maroney. As they did the entire season, Minnesota game plan for this game is simple. Run, Run and Run again. Virgina will be in a lot of trouble here especially, if Minnesota gets rolling as they have one of the nations top offensive lines, which executes mostly within a zone-blocking scheme. Minnesota has two offensive linemen that will soon be heading to the NFL, OG Mark Setterstrom and Outland and Rimington This line is well coached and will not struggle with their assignments against Virginia's 3-4 scheme. Virginia is allowing 147 yards per game on the ground and must do better than that to compete with the Gophers.
Virginia’s offense starts and stops, at the quarterback position this season. Senior Marques Hagans runs the Cavaliers offense, and is an agile QB with the ability to tuck the ball and run for the first down in any situation. Hagans has completed better than 60 percent of his passes this season for 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He averaged 194 passing yards and 25.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Virginia had four running backs carry the ball 50 times or more this season, and only one of those backs averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Wali Lundy was the Cavaliers number one option over the regular season, carrying the ball 128 times for 515 yards and eight touchdowns. Virginia ran the ball 90 times more than they passed the ball, so expect that trend to continue as the Cavaliers try to keep Minnesota’s rushing attack off the field. Each of Virginia’s top three receivers averaged more than 13 yard per catch, and they had 15 players with a reception this season. Deyon Williams is Hagans’ top target with 52 receptions this season, tied for second-most in the ACC, for 679 yards and six touchdowns. The Gophers can’t overlook Virginia’s depth at the wideout position though, as Fontel Mines and Jonathan Stupar helped the Cavaliers top then-No. 4 Florida State back in October, with a combined 10 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. Virginia achilles heel has been their defense this season. Virginia’s defensive is susceptible to both the run (10th in the ACC, allowing 146.9 yards per game) and the pass (11th in the ACC, allowing 221.1 yards per game). But their performance has been below their potential, as they boast a couple of the best defensive players in the ACC. Linebacker Kai Parham was named first-team All-ACC and cornerback Marcus Hamilton was named to the second team. Parham, a junior inside linebacker, pairs with Ahmad Brooks to pose a threat over the middle for Minnesota’s passing game. Brooks missed time earlier this season. Parham is ranked 26th in the nation in pass rushing, with 8.5 sacks in 11 games.
A small mention of the Virginia coaching situation is warranted. Virginia will come into this contest with no fewer than four Cavalier assistant coaches, including both their offensive and defensive coordinators, leaving the program prior to this contest. Virginia lost offensive coordinator Ron Prince to take over the head coaching job at Kansas State, defensive coordinator Al Golden to Temple, and LB coach Frank Rocco to Liberty. Say what you want about it, but continuity means something in college football and Virginia is without it right now. Imagine the assignment for the coach who will have to fill in for the departed defensive coordinator Al Golden. He has to somehow devise a game plan to stop this relentless rushing attack.
Clearly, this game will come down to one question...will Virginia be able to stop the high power rushing attack of Minnesota? Virginia was run over by Virginia Tech for 333 rushing yards, and Minnesota comes into this contest with even more potent attack. To make matters worse for Virginia, strong safety Nate Lyles is out for this contest, which will create even more holes in this defense. However, the special teams edge goes to the Cavaliers, who feature first-team ACC kicker Connor Hughes. Virginia will need a big offensive showing to keep pace with Minnesota, and Hagans will need to make enough plays and protect the football to pull off the win. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Both offenses should have success moving the football so the OVER is the play.
Forecast: Virginia 31, Minnesota 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON VIRGINIA/MINNESOTA OVER 59
OPNION SELECTION ON VIRGINIA +6
Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX
Week 15 Friday, 12/30/2005 2:00 PM
Northwestern (7-4 overall, 5-3 Big Ten/T3rd)Last Bowl:
vs
UCLA (9-2 overall, 6-2 Pac-10/3rd)History:
This year will mark Northwestern's first-ever appearance in the Sun Bowl, while UCLA participated in the 1991 and 2000 Sun Bowls. Overall, this will be UCLA's 27th bowl appearance, while Northwestern will be making its sixth all-time bowl appearance. The Wildcats clinched their sixth bowl trip in school history and head coach Randy Walker has guided the school to three postseason games, including their first-ever berths in the Alamo Bowl (2000) and Motor City Bowl (2003). Big Ten programs have built a 5-6 mark in the Sun Bowl, including a narrow loss by Purdue to Arizona State last season.
TRENDS
NORTHWESTERN:
Northwestern has never won a bowl game going 0-4 SU since 1995.
Northwestern is 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
Ucla owns the nation's worst run defense. Northwestern is 20-2 ATS as an underdog when they rush for more than 200 yards.
Northwestern is 0-7-1 SU and 2-6 ATS against a PAC-10 opponent.
Northwestern is 22-9 ATS in away games on artificial turf
Northwestern is 6-0 ATS last 6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA:
UCLA HC Karl Dorrell is 0-2 SU & ATS in Bowl games.
UCLA is 2-7 ATS in their lat 9 bowl games.
UCLA is 1-7 ATS as a favorite in their last 8 bowl games
UCLA is 0-4 ATS last 4 away games this season.
UCLA is 2-10 ATS in away games after playing a conference game.
UCLA is 9-2 OVER in all games this season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The underdog in the Sun Bowl is 13-1-2 ATS in the last 16 games.
The favorite is 0-10 ATS in the last 10 Sun Bowl games.
NORTHWESTERN:
Minnesota will be coming into this contest without defensive tackle Trevor Schultz (6 starts), sophomore corner back Deante Battle (started 6 of the last 7 games), and 6-4 sophomore backup WR Kim Thompson are suspended for either academics or violation of team rules. NW coach Randy Walker says NW has players who can step up to replace them, but that the Wildcats will now be hurting for depth at those positions.
Northwestern Leaders:
Rushing: Tyrell Sutton (232-1,390 yards, 16 TDs)
Passing: Brett Basanez (427-276-3,206 yards, 19 TDs)
Receiving: Shaun Herbert (72-801 yards, 5 Tds)
Head Coach: Randy Walker
Career Record: 96-80-5 (16th year)
Record at Northwestern: 37-45 (7th year)
UCLA:
UCLA senior kicker Justin Medlock (13 of 17 TY; all-Pac-10 selection) is suspended following his involvement in an alcohol-related accident. His backup is a walk-on freshman.
UCLA Leaders:
Rushing: Maurice Drew (183-900 yards, 13 TDs)
Passing: Drew Olson (354-232-3,055 yards, 31 TDs)
Receiving: Marcedes Lewis (58-741 yards, 10 Tds)
Head Coach: Karl Dorrell
Career Record: 21-15 (3rd year)
Record at UCLA: 21-15 (3rd year)
GAME NOTES: The 2005 Vitalis Sun Bowl will mark the sixth time these two teams have met, but the first since 1970. Northwestern holds a 3-2 advantage in the series, but the Bruins have won the last two meetings.
Analysis
This may be the most explosive game of the bowl season as both offenses have distinct advantages over their below average defenses. Against opponents selected to bowl games this season, Northwestern allowed 40 points per game, 519 yards per game, and 6.8 yards per play. UCLA, meanwhile incredible faired worse allowing 41 points, 535 yards, and 6.3 yards per play. In their last 6 games, UCLA allowed over 48 yards per game. Northwestern allowed 33 or more 6 times. Indeed both defenses rank 108th or worse in total yardage, rushing yardage, and passing yardage. It is very difficult to be quite that terrible at both rushing and passing defense, but these teams manage the trick.
The No. 17 UCLA Bruins bring the nation's seventh highest scoring offense to El Paso, averaging 38.09 points per game. The Bruins also average 429 yards per game of total offense, with 281.9 yards coming through the air. The Bruin offensive attack is lead by Quarterback Drew Olson who had a phenomenal year, passing for 3,055 yards with an unbelievable 31:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. UCLA has a bevy of receivers that Olson targets, including Marcedes Lewis, who accounted for 58 catches, 741 yards and 10 touchdowns. His size at the tight end position will be a nightmare for Northwestern. UCLA is not one dimensions, as Maurice Drew provided a solid balance this season, rushing for 900 yards and 13 touchdowns. When UCLA has the football, they possess a fundamental matchup advantage over their opponent as there is simply no way Northwestern’s secondary can match up with the speed and receiving talent of the dynamic Bruins corps. Considering that the Northwestern pass defense allows 272.5 passing yards per game and was torched for 325 or more five times look for a stat-padding day for all for all of the UCLA offensive personnel. UCLA should also have a field day on the ground versus NU’s 5.1 yards per carry allowed run defense. The Wildcats ranked 117th in the nation on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 483 yards per game.
Northwestern is also an offensive juggernaut, but slightly below the caliber of the aforementioned Bruins. Northwestern rank eighth in the nation in total offense averaging 492.7 yards per game this season, including 296.8 yards per game through the air. Northwestern finished with the eighth best offense in the land, chalking up 493 yards per game. The Gophers possess a balanced offensive attack averaging 196.3 yards per game rushing and 296.3 passing. Northwestern is led by senior Brett Basanez as he completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,206 yards. Basanez is not the only star in this unit as this Northwestern team very well might not be here without the play of true freshman running back Tyrell Sutton. The explosive Sutton garnered 1,390 yards on the ground, while scoring 16 times. QB Brett Basanez has led the team to impressive 415+ total yardage outings against some of the better defense in the country Penn State, Iowa & Michigan. Minnesota should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field against the defensively challenged Bruins. Freshman RB Tyrell Sutton is an explosive player and he also serves as a solid receiver in Northwestern’s diverse passing game. Fundamentally, UCLA might be able to contain or at the very least slow down the Wildcat passing attack, but when Northwestern decides to run the ball (something they do very well), U.C.L.A. will be in for a boatload of trouble as they were the worst team in Division I-A football against the run. They gave up a staggering 239 yards per game on the ground. Expect Northwestern to employ a game plan that establishes the run early and then finds passing success off of that. Heres something to consider, UCLA run defense is so bad that it's easier to run the ball on the Bruins than it is against the likes of Temple, Duke, and Florida Atlantic. As stated above, the problem with Northwestern is that its has the worst total defense in the nation! That of course means that its easier to gain any kind of yards against Northwestern than it is against the aforementioned Temple, Duke or Florida Atlantic!
Motivation might be a huge factor in this contest. Despite UCLA’s 9-2 record, they have to settle for playing in El Paso, Texas, rather than a new years day game. Normally such motivational factors would be given a small amount of weight, but a look at the trends in this bowl certainly makes us look harder at UCLA’s motivation. Indeed, the favorite in the Sun bowl is 0-10 ATS in the last 10 Sun Bowl games while the underdog comes into this contest with a stellar 13-1-2 ATS mark in the last 16 games. Also, consider that UCLA has absolutely thrown in the towel in each of the last two years, losing as favorites to Fresno State and Wyoming. Also important to note is that the Wildcats haven't won a bowl game since 1946, so you can count on a Northwestern team that's extremely happy to be in this game.
What makes this game so difficult to forecast, is that really is not any difference between these two teams, and if there is a difference, it would take someone a whole lot more perceptive than any of us to determine what it is. Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin and should have beaten Penn State while UCLA numbered Oklahoma, California and Arizona State among its victims. But, Northwestern was decapitated by that same Arizona State team and humiliated by the Buckeyes while UCLA was brutalized by Arizona and disemboweled by Southern Cal. Considering UCLA’s final 7 games had total scoring of 85, 80, 66, 57, 75, 89, and 87 the only recommendation I would even consider is the OVER.
Forecast: Northwestern 346, UCLA 347
OPINION SELECTION ON NORTHWESTERN/UCLA OVER 74
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
It's always noon somewhere! 
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