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NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* OKLAHOMA +3.5
1* UTAH/GEORGIA TECH UNDER 46
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Holiday Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Thursday, 12/29/2005 8:00 PM
Oregon (10-1, 7-1 Pacific 10)
vs
Oklahoma (7-4, 6-2 Big 12)
History
This game marks Oklahoma's 39th bowl appearance and its 12th different bowl game. Oklahoma holds a 5-0 series lead over Oregon, including a 31-7 victory in Norman last season. This will be the first appearance in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl for the Sooners and the seventh bowl game in seven seasons for Oklahoma under Bob Stoops. This current streak of seven straight bowl game appearances ranks second in Oklahoma history. The Sooners played in eight straight bowl games from 1975-82. Prior to 1989, Oregon had made only six post-season appearances in the first 93 years of the program’s history. Since then, the school has accumulated 13 bowl invitations in the last 17 seasons and is one of just 11 programs in the country to play in the post-season at least 13 times during that span. This is also the eighth bowl appearance for the Ducks in the last nine seasons. This is Oregon’s second appearance in the Holiday Bowl. The Ducks won 35-30 over Texas in the 2000 Holiday Bowl. Prior to missing the post-season after last year’s 5-6 finish, Oregon had lost two-straight bowl games (31-30 vs. Minnesota, 2003 Sun Bowl; and 38-17 vs. Wake Forest, 2002 Seattle Bowl). Oregon is 4-4 in bowl games under head coach Mike Bellotti.
TRENDS
OKLAHOMA:
Oklahoma is 37-9 SU against bowl teams the last 6 years.
Oklahoma is 7-13-1 ATS against PAC-10 teams, and 0-4 when those teams are off back to back SU wins.
Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS last 12 away games.
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS last 6 games this year.
Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in bowl games since 1999.
OREGON:
Under Head coach Mike Bellotti Oregon is 3-0 SU & ATS against Big XII opposition
Oregon is 4-1 ATS against other bowl teams this season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The Favorite in the Holiday Bowl is 0-7 ATS the last 7 years.
PAC-10 teams are 6-1 ATS against Big XII opponents since current Holiday Bowl arrangement began in 1998.
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma offensive coordinator Chuck Long has left the team to take over as Head Coach at San Diego State. Josh Heupel, who quarterbacked the Sooners to the national championship in the 2000 season (13-2 over Florida State) will replace him.
Oklahoma Leaders:
Rushing: Adrian Peterson (10 G, 197-1,024 yards, 14 TD)
Passing: Rhett Bomar (11 G, 278-150-9-1,789 yards, 9 TD)
Receiving: Malcolm Kelly (10 G, 26-392 yards, 2 TD)
Head Coach: Bob Stoops (Iowa, 1983)
Career Record: 74-16 (7th year)
Record at Oklahoma: 74-16 (7th year)
OREGON
Oregon senior QB Kellen Clemens will not be returning for this contest. Among the 107 players on Oregon’s post-season roster are 49 who consider the state of California home. Of those players, 34 of them are awaiting a Southern California homecoming for the chance to play near where they went to high school. In fact, the last time the Ducks played in front of a Southern California crowd was when they played at UCLA during the 2003 season.
Oregon Leaders:
Rushing: T. Whitehead (10 G, 144-636 yards, 4 TD)
Passing: Kellen Clemens (8 G, 289-185-4-2,406 yards, 19 TD)
Receiving: D. Williams (11 G, 55-1,032 yards, 10 TD)
Head Coach: Mike Bellotti (UC Davis, 1973)
Career Record: 111-66-2 (15th year)
Record at Oregon: 90-41 (10th year)
SERIES NOTES: The Ducks are looking for their first victory against the Sooners as Oklahoma owns the all-time series advantage, 5-0. All of the previous games have taken place on the Sooners’ home turf, most recently in 2004, as the Sooners defeated the Ducks, 31-7. This is the teams’ first meeting in the post-season. The teams won’t have to wait long for a rematch as Oklahoma will make its first ever trip to Eugene on Sept. 16, 2006. The series has been anything but kind to the Northwest partisans as the Sooners have outscored Oregon, 184-17, in the five-game set which began with a 6-0 Oklahoma win in 1958. The home team has dominated the latest three contests, winning 68-3 (1972), 62-7 (1975) and 31-7 (2004).
CONFERENCE NOTES: Oregon’s meeting with Oklahoma will mark only the fifth time it has officially faced a member of that revised conference that began play in 1996, with the Ducks sporting a 2-2 record. However, they have managed to accumulate a record of only 11-24-1 record against the 12 schools that currently comprise the league. Prior to last season’s meeting vs. Oklahoma, Oregon had not faced any of the members making up the revised edition of the conference since 1992 (Texas Tech).
COACHING NOTES: Not only does 11th-year Oregon coach Mike Bellotti resume his role as the longest-tenured football mentor in the league, he stands as one of its most successful. Surpassed only by USC (94-39-1) in overall wins in the Pacific-10 Conference during his Oregon tenure (90-41), he has joined an elite collection of former conference coaches who have won 50 or more league games during their illustrious careers in the Pac-10. He is tied for ninth on the Pac-10’s all-time list of league coaching victories (56-32) and 15th on the league’s career winning percentage list in Pac-10 games (.636). Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops inherited an Oklahoma program five years removed from a winning record - four year from a postseason appearance - and has returned it to national prominence. In Stoops’ seven-year tenure, Oklahoma has won 74 games, spent 71 consecutive weeks in the national rankings, played in six bowl games (four of the BCS variety), including three national championship games, and captured three Big 12 Conference crowns. The son of a coach, Stoops was a four-year starter at Iowa. He began his coaching career in 1983 as a volunteer in the Hawkeye program under Hayden Fry, working through the ranks until he became co-defensive coordinator at Kansas State (1991-95). With the Wildcats, he played a key role in their impressive turnaround. During his final four seasons there, K-State was 35-12 with three bowl appearances. Eventually, he left for Florida (1996-98) and a three-year stint as Steve Spurrier’s defensive coordinator. In 1996, he was part of a national championship team.
GAME NOTES: The 2005 Holiday Bowl game looks chilling similar to last situational tough spot when the Bear of California were snubbed by the BCS despite a higher BSC ranking. Like California last year, Oregon has to be steaming mad after they were left out of the BCS picture despite ending the season as BCS #5 ranked team. Indeed, Oregon finished ahead of NotreDame in the BCS poll, only to settle for this lesser bowl, while the Irish have a date with Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. A year ago, fellow PAC-10 member California, was dealt the same fate, not only winding up in this same bowl, but losing, to boot. Like that 2004 Cal team, this year's Duck squad's only setback has come vs the mighty Trojans of USC.
Analysis
The sixth-ranked University of Oregon football team will square off with the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in the post-season, but for the second time in as many years. Oregon traveled to Norman in early 2004, falling to the Sooners, 31-7, for the fifth time in as many tries. Oklahoma finished the 2005 regular season with a 7-4 overall record and a 6-2 Big 12 South mark, which tied for second in the division. Oklahoma finished this season ranked No. 23 in the final BCS Standings, while their opponent brings a 10-1 mark into this contest and was No. 5 in the final BCS standings.
With their 10-1 record, Oregon has undergone the programs’ greatest one-season turnaround in 77 years after last years 5-6 disappointing finish. Oregon’s 10-1 was earned against a modest slate of opponents, and their 5-0 road mark was achieved visiting Houston, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Washington State. They were fortunate to catch several teams on their schedule when they weren’t playing well. One of the reasons for the turnaround has been the Ducks’ explosive offense. This season, Oregon has scored 37 points or more in six of its 11 games and has had over 500 yards or more in total offense four times this season. The team ranks 7th in the country in passing offense, 9th in scoring offense and 16th in total offense. The Duck’s were also third in the Pacific-10 in passing offense at 310.1 yards per game. Defensively, the Ducks’ are lead by First-Team All-Pac-10 Conference standouts Haloti Ngata and Justin Phinisee. Ngata has the opportunity to become one of the program's most decorated individual players in school history. He is an All-America candidate, co-Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, and is a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy (nation's outstanding defensive player) and Outland Trophy (nation's best interior lineman). Phinisee finished the season with 56 tackles and four interceptions and led the team with seven passes broken-up.
It should be noted that the Oregon senior starting QB Kellen Clemens was lost for the season with a broken ankle against Arizona and will not return for this game. Replacing Clemens, Oregon has been using a two-quarterback system, with sophomores Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf, and they have won four consecutive games since Clemens was hurt, including the Arizona game and a 27-20 overtime victory over then-No. 23 California. Combined, the two have completed 92 of 143 passes for 1,001 yards. However, there is clearly some drop off in some peripheral numbers, as the two combined to take nine sacks and throw six interceptions in 143 attempts, while Clemens was sacked only eight times and threw only four interceptions in more than double the amount of attempts. In three appearances in the starting role, sophomore Dennis Dixon has completed 43 of 65 passes (.662) for 540 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. While engineering 24 drives in Oregon’s last three games, he has guided the Ducks to 12 scores (8 TDs, 4 FG, 1 missed FG).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma comes into this contest battle tested as they have faced the NCAA’s toughest schedule. The Sooners opened the season 2-3 before winning five of their final six games to end the season with a 7-4 overall record. The combined record of the four teams Oklahoma lost to is 40-5 and all are ranked. This was also one of the youngest teams in the history of Oklahoma football. Twelve true freshmen drew starting assignments this season and 22 players made their first career start. Sophomore running back Adrian Peterson, who finished second in last year’s Heisman voting, leads the Sooner offense. Peterson missed all or more than half of four games this season with an ankle injury, yet still gained more yards than any other Big 12 running back with 1,024. Over the last four regular season games, when Peterson regained his health, he averaged 156.5 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Rhett Bomar finished the regular season with 1,789 yards passing and nine touchdowns, and also threw nine interceptions. Bomar finished the season 90th in the nation in passing. The Oklahoma defense is led by tackle Dusty Dvoracek, who leads the nation’s interior linemen with 17 tackles for loss and junior linebacker Rufus Alexander, who leads the team with 93 tackles.
What makes this game such an intriguing match-up is the fact that this Oklahoma defense will be the best defensive team that the Ducks will have faced all season. Oklahoma ranked in the Top 10 in pass defense and the only other time that Oregon faced a team with a credible pass defense, the Ducks were held to 13 points. In addition, Oklahoma holds a fundamental match-up advantage when Oregon tries to rush the ball as they were just 69th in rushing offense, having to face the Sooners' 5th ranked rushing defense. To put this in perspective, Oklahoma allows nearly a full yard less per carry than Oregon. They have a huge defensive edge. Oklahoma has the better running attack, the better run and the pass defense, Meanwhile, Oregon will come out firing and will want to show the world that the Ducks deserved a BCS Bowl bid. Oregon will also be playing with revenge looking to avenge their 31-7 loss to Oklahoma at Norman last year. Oklahoma 93rd ranked passing attack will also find trouble moving the ball against an excellent Oregon secondary.
Before betting this game on the favorite, consider the success of the underdog in this bowl over the past 7 years. The underdog has covered the last seven Holiday Bowls, and won three of the last five outright (taking at least +7 in each of those three games). Since this game became Big 12 vs. Pac Ten the underdog has spread coves of 3, 6, 12, 9, 10½, 17½, and 25. The favorite in this bowl often is in a difficult position. Along with the Cotton Bowl, the Holiday Bowl often is one of the bowls that teams shunned by the BCS land in.
Forecast: Oklahoma 28, Oregon 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OKLAHOMA +3.5
Emerald Bowl - SBC Park - San Francisco, CA
Week 15 Thursday, 12/29/2005 4:30 PM
Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC)
Last Bowl: 2004 Champs Sports Bowl (Georgia Tech 51, Syracuse 14)
vs.
Utah (6-5, 4-4 MWC)
Last Bowl: 2004 Fiesta Bowl (Utah 37, Pittsburgh 7)
History
Utah (6-5, 4-4 MWC) will play No. 24 Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC) in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco's SBC Park. The game marks Utah's fourth bowl appearance in the last five years and the ninth-consecutive bowl berth for Georgia Tech. Utah is 7-4 all-time in bowl games and 4-0 since 1999. Last year, Utah broke into the Bowl Championship Series and defeated Big East co-champion Pittsburgh, 35-7, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Utah's other bowl wins during its current win streak follow: 17-16 vs. Fresno State in the 1999 Las Vegas Bowl, 10-6 over USC in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl and 17-0 vs. Southern Miss in the 2003 Liberty Bowl. Nine of Utah’s 12 all-time bowl appearances have come since 1992. In all, Utah has posted a 7-4 record in 11 bowl appearances. Meanwhile, their opponent Georgia Tech is 22-11 all-time in bowl games. Its .667 win percentage in bowl contests leads the nation. The Yellow Jackets have won their last two bowl games by a cumulative score of 103-24. Georgia Tech cruised past Tulsa, 52-10 in the 2003 Humanitarian Bowl and defeated Syracuse, 51-14 in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl. Georgia Tech and Utah will both be making their first appearance in the Emerald Bowl. The Yellow Jackets will head West for a bowl game for the fourth time in the last five years. Tech played in the 2001 Seattle Bowl, the 2002 Silicon Valley Classic in San Jose, Calif., and the 2004 Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho. Utah is 1-1 in games played in San Francisco, with both games dating back to the 1940s (The Utes lost to Santa Clara in 1940 and beat San Francisco in 1946).
TRENDS
UTAH:
Utah is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS last 4 bowl games.
Utah is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Utah is 3-8 ATS this season.
Utah is 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Utah is 6-2 ATS in bowl games since 1992.
GEORGIA TECH:
Georgia Tech is 4-8-1 ATS last 13 games when laying 7 or more points.
Georgia Tech is 2-0 SU and ATS last 2 bowl games.
Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU and ATS in bowl games since 1985.
Georgia Tech is 0-13 ATS as a favorite in its last 13 games when allowing 28 or more points.
Georgia Tech is 3-8 ATS as a favorite against a non-conference opponent.
UTAH:
Utah went 1-1 against 2005 bowl teams this season, losing to Colorado State (17-21) and defeating BYU (41-34 OT). Utah has more players from California than any other state on its latest roster. There are 37 Utes from California (second is Utah with 35) including nine from Northern California.
Utah Leaders:
Rushing: Quinton Ganther (10 G, 183-1,000 yards, 6 TDs)
Passing: Brain Johnson (10 G, 210-330, 2,892 yards, 18 TDs)
Receiving: John Madsen (9 G, 55-672 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
Career Record: 6-5 (1st year)
Record at Utah: 6-6 (1st year)
GEORGIA TECH:
Georgia Tech went 3-4 vs. teams participating in bowl games this season. The Yellow Jackets defeated Auburn (23-14), Clemson (10-9) and Miami (14-10), while falling to Virginia Tech (7-51), NC State (14-17), Virginia (17-27) and Georgia (7-14).
Georgia Tech Leaders:
Rushing: P.J. Daniels (10 G, 178-821 yards, 3 TDs)
Passing: Reggie Ball (10 G, 163-342, 1,907 yards, 10 TDs)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (11 G, 52-869 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Chan Gailey
Career Record: 52-32 (7th year)
Record at Georgia Tech: 28-21 (4th year)
COACHING NOTES:
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is just the second Utah football coach ever to receive a bowl invitation in his first season as head coach. Whittingham made history in his first game as head coach when he helped Utah break a 75-year-old school win streak record with a victory over Arizona. He and his team extended the record streak to 18 games a week later against Utah State. Named head coach on Dec. 8, 2004, Whittingham has been a member of the Ute staff since 1994, when he coached the defensive line for Utah’s 10-2 Freedom Bowl champion team. He was promoted to defensive coordinator a year later—a position he held until his promotion to head coach. In his 11 years as a Ute assistant, the program compiled an 86-41 record and played in six bowl games (winning five). He served as co-head coach at the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, helping to lead Utah to a 35-7 victory over Pittsburgh. The Ute defense recorded 14 top-20 statistical rankings during Whittingham’s 10 years as the coordinator. Utah led the league in scoring defense in four of the last six years (placing second the other two).
GAME NOTES:
Utah has been designated as the home team in the Emerald Bowl and will wear red jerseys. This will be the first meeting between Georgia Tech and Utah. Georgia Tech is 6-1 against Mountain West teams, including 3-0 vs. Air Force, 1-1 vs. BYU and 2-0 vs. TCU. Utah is 1-1 all-time against the ACC. The Utes defeated North Carolina (46-16) in 2004 in Salt Lake City and fell to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in 2005 (17-31). Georgia Tech and Utah have one common opponent this season in North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets defeated the Tar Heels, 27-21, while the Utes fell, 31-17.
Analysis
The Emerald Bowl will pit one of the nation's best offensive teams (Utah) against one of its top defensive teams (Georgia Tech). Utah ranks No. 12 in the nation (first in the MWC) in total offense, averaging 466.0 yards per game. Tech is No. 12 in the nation in total defense, allowing 296.4 yards per game. Utah ranks No. 61 in total defense (372.8 average) and Georgia Tech ranks No. 81 in total offense (345.7 average). Both teams come into this bowl game having great success in their previous bowl games in recent history. Utah has given up a total of 13 points in its last three bowl games. The Utes defeated USC, 10-6 in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, shut out Southern Miss, 17-0 in the 2003 Liberty Bowl and cruised past Pittsburgh, 35-7 in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. Georgia Tech comes into the Emerald Bowl with a 7-4 overall record, 5-3 in the ACC (tied for third in the 12-team league) and ranked 24th in both polls. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech destroyed their previous two bowl foes winning 51-14 last year against Syracuse in the Champs Sports Bowl, and 52-10 against Tulsa in the Humanitarian Bowl.
From the start, it is clear that Georgia Tech is the better team here and battle tested as they have faced the nations 14th toughest schedule. When your schedule includes three opponents playing on January 2, and three other opponents that defeated another team playing on January 3, then some losses will inevitably be landing on your side. The Yellow Jackets faced four teams that won nine or more games (Virginia Tech, Miami, Auburn, Georgia) and a total of seven bowl teams Indeed, Georgia Tech and Southern Cal are the only two teams in the nation that have two wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 10. They have a victory against North Carolina as well, a team that defeated Utah easily, 31-17. Utah has no quality victories to speak of, with its season-ending victory at BYU being its most impressive.
Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta is looking to impress the world and open up better things for himself and his Yellow Jackets defense represents the biggest lifetime challenge for the new Utah starting quarterback Bret Ratliff, who completed only 51% of his throws against a slower and more passive BYU defense in his only other collegiate start to date. Ratliff stepped in when starting QB Brian Johnson (who suffered a torn ACL prior to the team’s 41-34 OT victory finale at BYU) got injured. Ratliff completed 17 of 32 for 240 yards. with 4 TDs and no ints. in his lone start at BYU to end the season. But that was against the poor BYU defense, and not an elite stopping unit such as Georgia’s Tech’s. The Yellow Jackets rank in the Top 20 nationally in total defense (10th), rushing defense (11th), pass efficiency defense (14th), scoring defense (16th), turnover margin (17th). Over the last two games against third-ranked Miami and 13th-ranked Georgia, the Tech defense allowed just three touchdowns, 24 points and 503 total yards, including just 98 yards rushing in the two games. Miami and Georgia were a combined 5-for-29 on third downs. Comparatively , Utah allowed 4.74 yards per carry and 5.95 yards per pass play, while the Yellow Jackets allowed just 4.01 ypc and 5.15 ypp against a much better schedule. Utah does have better offensive numbers, but again, that had more to do with its weak conference than anything.
Motivation might be a big concern for those of you thinking about backing Georgia Tech. This game will mark the fourth time in five years that Georgia Tech has had to travel across the country for a bowl game. After finishing 7-4 this year with victories against Miami (FL) and Auburn, the Yellow Jackets didn't think they would be traveling again. To make matters worse, they were shunned by the Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn., for a 6-5 Virginia team. They also were passed over by the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte, NC, for a 6-5 NC State team. Finally, they were disappointed to know that they would have been playing in the hometown Peach Bowl had Florida State not upset Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. The announcement of Georgia Tech's ninth straight bowl bid didn't go over too well with the school's basketball fans. During a break late in the Yellow Jackets' 63-54 home basketball victory over Virginia on December 4 came the announcement that Tech's football team would play Utah in the Emerald Bowl. The fans responded with loud boos. The early comments by the players after this bid was announced was so bad that Gailey finally had to tell them to “cool it”, but getting them to stop complaining is one thing; finding the interest and energy level to play well here is another. "Is it a new bowl?" asked senior safety Chris Reis. "Well, it's new to me." Nevertheless, Georgia Tech has starred as Bowl Game Serial Killers recently, class-dropping from ACC and top-notch non-conference opponents into 52-10 and 51-14 drubbing's of Tulsa and Syracuse the last two seasons.
Clearly Utah moves up in class for this match-up. But, if Brian Johnson were not injured and able to play in this game, I would probably have opined that Utah might cover this heavy spread. But he is not playing, and this will probably be too tough of a defense for rookie Brett Ratliff to have the same kind of success that he did at BYU in his only start. If executed properly, the unique Ute shotgun-option would be able to operate with some success, especially with complementary weapons such as 1000-yard rusher Quinton Ganther, and a now healthy set of wideouts. But the inexperience is the neutralizer to that attack. Assuming that Georgia Tech overcomes its disappointment in traveling to San Francisco and comes to play, which history suggests they will, the Yellow Jackets should have no problem getting their offense going against the Utes. Calvin Johnson is a big-time threat at wide receiver and P.J. Daniels can open up some running lanes with his legs. They should also be able to shut down the Utah offense and force a few turnovers, which could lead to a decisive victory for the Yellow Jackets.
Forecast: Oklahoma 28, Oregon 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTAH/GEORGIA TECH UNDER 46
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* OKLAHOMA +3.5
1* UTAH/GEORGIA TECH UNDER 46
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Holiday Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Thursday, 12/29/2005 8:00 PM
Oregon (10-1, 7-1 Pacific 10)vs
Oklahoma (7-4, 6-2 Big 12) History
This game marks Oklahoma's 39th bowl appearance and its 12th different bowl game. Oklahoma holds a 5-0 series lead over Oregon, including a 31-7 victory in Norman last season. This will be the first appearance in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl for the Sooners and the seventh bowl game in seven seasons for Oklahoma under Bob Stoops. This current streak of seven straight bowl game appearances ranks second in Oklahoma history. The Sooners played in eight straight bowl games from 1975-82. Prior to 1989, Oregon had made only six post-season appearances in the first 93 years of the program’s history. Since then, the school has accumulated 13 bowl invitations in the last 17 seasons and is one of just 11 programs in the country to play in the post-season at least 13 times during that span. This is also the eighth bowl appearance for the Ducks in the last nine seasons. This is Oregon’s second appearance in the Holiday Bowl. The Ducks won 35-30 over Texas in the 2000 Holiday Bowl. Prior to missing the post-season after last year’s 5-6 finish, Oregon had lost two-straight bowl games (31-30 vs. Minnesota, 2003 Sun Bowl; and 38-17 vs. Wake Forest, 2002 Seattle Bowl). Oregon is 4-4 in bowl games under head coach Mike Bellotti.
TRENDS
OKLAHOMA:
Oklahoma is 37-9 SU against bowl teams the last 6 years.
Oklahoma is 7-13-1 ATS against PAC-10 teams, and 0-4 when those teams are off back to back SU wins.
Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS last 12 away games.
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS last 6 games this year.
Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in bowl games since 1999.
OREGON:
Under Head coach Mike Bellotti Oregon is 3-0 SU & ATS against Big XII opposition
Oregon is 4-1 ATS against other bowl teams this season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The Favorite in the Holiday Bowl is 0-7 ATS the last 7 years.
PAC-10 teams are 6-1 ATS against Big XII opponents since current Holiday Bowl arrangement began in 1998.
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma offensive coordinator Chuck Long has left the team to take over as Head Coach at San Diego State. Josh Heupel, who quarterbacked the Sooners to the national championship in the 2000 season (13-2 over Florida State) will replace him.
Oklahoma Leaders:
Rushing: Adrian Peterson (10 G, 197-1,024 yards, 14 TD)
Passing: Rhett Bomar (11 G, 278-150-9-1,789 yards, 9 TD)
Receiving: Malcolm Kelly (10 G, 26-392 yards, 2 TD)
Head Coach: Bob Stoops (Iowa, 1983)
Career Record: 74-16 (7th year)
Record at Oklahoma: 74-16 (7th year)
OREGON
Oregon senior QB Kellen Clemens will not be returning for this contest. Among the 107 players on Oregon’s post-season roster are 49 who consider the state of California home. Of those players, 34 of them are awaiting a Southern California homecoming for the chance to play near where they went to high school. In fact, the last time the Ducks played in front of a Southern California crowd was when they played at UCLA during the 2003 season.
Oregon Leaders:
Rushing: T. Whitehead (10 G, 144-636 yards, 4 TD)
Passing: Kellen Clemens (8 G, 289-185-4-2,406 yards, 19 TD)
Receiving: D. Williams (11 G, 55-1,032 yards, 10 TD)
Head Coach: Mike Bellotti (UC Davis, 1973)
Career Record: 111-66-2 (15th year)
Record at Oregon: 90-41 (10th year)
SERIES NOTES: The Ducks are looking for their first victory against the Sooners as Oklahoma owns the all-time series advantage, 5-0. All of the previous games have taken place on the Sooners’ home turf, most recently in 2004, as the Sooners defeated the Ducks, 31-7. This is the teams’ first meeting in the post-season. The teams won’t have to wait long for a rematch as Oklahoma will make its first ever trip to Eugene on Sept. 16, 2006. The series has been anything but kind to the Northwest partisans as the Sooners have outscored Oregon, 184-17, in the five-game set which began with a 6-0 Oklahoma win in 1958. The home team has dominated the latest three contests, winning 68-3 (1972), 62-7 (1975) and 31-7 (2004).
CONFERENCE NOTES: Oregon’s meeting with Oklahoma will mark only the fifth time it has officially faced a member of that revised conference that began play in 1996, with the Ducks sporting a 2-2 record. However, they have managed to accumulate a record of only 11-24-1 record against the 12 schools that currently comprise the league. Prior to last season’s meeting vs. Oklahoma, Oregon had not faced any of the members making up the revised edition of the conference since 1992 (Texas Tech).
COACHING NOTES: Not only does 11th-year Oregon coach Mike Bellotti resume his role as the longest-tenured football mentor in the league, he stands as one of its most successful. Surpassed only by USC (94-39-1) in overall wins in the Pacific-10 Conference during his Oregon tenure (90-41), he has joined an elite collection of former conference coaches who have won 50 or more league games during their illustrious careers in the Pac-10. He is tied for ninth on the Pac-10’s all-time list of league coaching victories (56-32) and 15th on the league’s career winning percentage list in Pac-10 games (.636). Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops inherited an Oklahoma program five years removed from a winning record - four year from a postseason appearance - and has returned it to national prominence. In Stoops’ seven-year tenure, Oklahoma has won 74 games, spent 71 consecutive weeks in the national rankings, played in six bowl games (four of the BCS variety), including three national championship games, and captured three Big 12 Conference crowns. The son of a coach, Stoops was a four-year starter at Iowa. He began his coaching career in 1983 as a volunteer in the Hawkeye program under Hayden Fry, working through the ranks until he became co-defensive coordinator at Kansas State (1991-95). With the Wildcats, he played a key role in their impressive turnaround. During his final four seasons there, K-State was 35-12 with three bowl appearances. Eventually, he left for Florida (1996-98) and a three-year stint as Steve Spurrier’s defensive coordinator. In 1996, he was part of a national championship team.
GAME NOTES: The 2005 Holiday Bowl game looks chilling similar to last situational tough spot when the Bear of California were snubbed by the BCS despite a higher BSC ranking. Like California last year, Oregon has to be steaming mad after they were left out of the BCS picture despite ending the season as BCS #5 ranked team. Indeed, Oregon finished ahead of NotreDame in the BCS poll, only to settle for this lesser bowl, while the Irish have a date with Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. A year ago, fellow PAC-10 member California, was dealt the same fate, not only winding up in this same bowl, but losing, to boot. Like that 2004 Cal team, this year's Duck squad's only setback has come vs the mighty Trojans of USC.
Analysis
The sixth-ranked University of Oregon football team will square off with the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in the post-season, but for the second time in as many years. Oregon traveled to Norman in early 2004, falling to the Sooners, 31-7, for the fifth time in as many tries. Oklahoma finished the 2005 regular season with a 7-4 overall record and a 6-2 Big 12 South mark, which tied for second in the division. Oklahoma finished this season ranked No. 23 in the final BCS Standings, while their opponent brings a 10-1 mark into this contest and was No. 5 in the final BCS standings.
With their 10-1 record, Oregon has undergone the programs’ greatest one-season turnaround in 77 years after last years 5-6 disappointing finish. Oregon’s 10-1 was earned against a modest slate of opponents, and their 5-0 road mark was achieved visiting Houston, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Washington State. They were fortunate to catch several teams on their schedule when they weren’t playing well. One of the reasons for the turnaround has been the Ducks’ explosive offense. This season, Oregon has scored 37 points or more in six of its 11 games and has had over 500 yards or more in total offense four times this season. The team ranks 7th in the country in passing offense, 9th in scoring offense and 16th in total offense. The Duck’s were also third in the Pacific-10 in passing offense at 310.1 yards per game. Defensively, the Ducks’ are lead by First-Team All-Pac-10 Conference standouts Haloti Ngata and Justin Phinisee. Ngata has the opportunity to become one of the program's most decorated individual players in school history. He is an All-America candidate, co-Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, and is a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy (nation's outstanding defensive player) and Outland Trophy (nation's best interior lineman). Phinisee finished the season with 56 tackles and four interceptions and led the team with seven passes broken-up.
It should be noted that the Oregon senior starting QB Kellen Clemens was lost for the season with a broken ankle against Arizona and will not return for this game. Replacing Clemens, Oregon has been using a two-quarterback system, with sophomores Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf, and they have won four consecutive games since Clemens was hurt, including the Arizona game and a 27-20 overtime victory over then-No. 23 California. Combined, the two have completed 92 of 143 passes for 1,001 yards. However, there is clearly some drop off in some peripheral numbers, as the two combined to take nine sacks and throw six interceptions in 143 attempts, while Clemens was sacked only eight times and threw only four interceptions in more than double the amount of attempts. In three appearances in the starting role, sophomore Dennis Dixon has completed 43 of 65 passes (.662) for 540 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. While engineering 24 drives in Oregon’s last three games, he has guided the Ducks to 12 scores (8 TDs, 4 FG, 1 missed FG).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma comes into this contest battle tested as they have faced the NCAA’s toughest schedule. The Sooners opened the season 2-3 before winning five of their final six games to end the season with a 7-4 overall record. The combined record of the four teams Oklahoma lost to is 40-5 and all are ranked. This was also one of the youngest teams in the history of Oklahoma football. Twelve true freshmen drew starting assignments this season and 22 players made their first career start. Sophomore running back Adrian Peterson, who finished second in last year’s Heisman voting, leads the Sooner offense. Peterson missed all or more than half of four games this season with an ankle injury, yet still gained more yards than any other Big 12 running back with 1,024. Over the last four regular season games, when Peterson regained his health, he averaged 156.5 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Rhett Bomar finished the regular season with 1,789 yards passing and nine touchdowns, and also threw nine interceptions. Bomar finished the season 90th in the nation in passing. The Oklahoma defense is led by tackle Dusty Dvoracek, who leads the nation’s interior linemen with 17 tackles for loss and junior linebacker Rufus Alexander, who leads the team with 93 tackles.
What makes this game such an intriguing match-up is the fact that this Oklahoma defense will be the best defensive team that the Ducks will have faced all season. Oklahoma ranked in the Top 10 in pass defense and the only other time that Oregon faced a team with a credible pass defense, the Ducks were held to 13 points. In addition, Oklahoma holds a fundamental match-up advantage when Oregon tries to rush the ball as they were just 69th in rushing offense, having to face the Sooners' 5th ranked rushing defense. To put this in perspective, Oklahoma allows nearly a full yard less per carry than Oregon. They have a huge defensive edge. Oklahoma has the better running attack, the better run and the pass defense, Meanwhile, Oregon will come out firing and will want to show the world that the Ducks deserved a BCS Bowl bid. Oregon will also be playing with revenge looking to avenge their 31-7 loss to Oklahoma at Norman last year. Oklahoma 93rd ranked passing attack will also find trouble moving the ball against an excellent Oregon secondary.
Before betting this game on the favorite, consider the success of the underdog in this bowl over the past 7 years. The underdog has covered the last seven Holiday Bowls, and won three of the last five outright (taking at least +7 in each of those three games). Since this game became Big 12 vs. Pac Ten the underdog has spread coves of 3, 6, 12, 9, 10½, 17½, and 25. The favorite in this bowl often is in a difficult position. Along with the Cotton Bowl, the Holiday Bowl often is one of the bowls that teams shunned by the BCS land in.
Forecast: Oklahoma 28, Oregon 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OKLAHOMA +3.5
Emerald Bowl - SBC Park - San Francisco, CA
Week 15 Thursday, 12/29/2005 4:30 PM
Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC)Last Bowl: 2004 Champs Sports Bowl (Georgia Tech 51, Syracuse 14)
vs.
Utah (6-5, 4-4 MWC) Last Bowl: 2004 Fiesta Bowl (Utah 37, Pittsburgh 7)
History
Utah (6-5, 4-4 MWC) will play No. 24 Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC) in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco's SBC Park. The game marks Utah's fourth bowl appearance in the last five years and the ninth-consecutive bowl berth for Georgia Tech. Utah is 7-4 all-time in bowl games and 4-0 since 1999. Last year, Utah broke into the Bowl Championship Series and defeated Big East co-champion Pittsburgh, 35-7, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Utah's other bowl wins during its current win streak follow: 17-16 vs. Fresno State in the 1999 Las Vegas Bowl, 10-6 over USC in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl and 17-0 vs. Southern Miss in the 2003 Liberty Bowl. Nine of Utah’s 12 all-time bowl appearances have come since 1992. In all, Utah has posted a 7-4 record in 11 bowl appearances. Meanwhile, their opponent Georgia Tech is 22-11 all-time in bowl games. Its .667 win percentage in bowl contests leads the nation. The Yellow Jackets have won their last two bowl games by a cumulative score of 103-24. Georgia Tech cruised past Tulsa, 52-10 in the 2003 Humanitarian Bowl and defeated Syracuse, 51-14 in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl. Georgia Tech and Utah will both be making their first appearance in the Emerald Bowl. The Yellow Jackets will head West for a bowl game for the fourth time in the last five years. Tech played in the 2001 Seattle Bowl, the 2002 Silicon Valley Classic in San Jose, Calif., and the 2004 Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho. Utah is 1-1 in games played in San Francisco, with both games dating back to the 1940s (The Utes lost to Santa Clara in 1940 and beat San Francisco in 1946).
TRENDS
UTAH:
Utah is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS last 4 bowl games.
Utah is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Utah is 3-8 ATS this season.
Utah is 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Utah is 6-2 ATS in bowl games since 1992.
GEORGIA TECH:
Georgia Tech is 4-8-1 ATS last 13 games when laying 7 or more points.
Georgia Tech is 2-0 SU and ATS last 2 bowl games.
Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU and ATS in bowl games since 1985.
Georgia Tech is 0-13 ATS as a favorite in its last 13 games when allowing 28 or more points.
Georgia Tech is 3-8 ATS as a favorite against a non-conference opponent.
UTAH:
Utah went 1-1 against 2005 bowl teams this season, losing to Colorado State (17-21) and defeating BYU (41-34 OT). Utah has more players from California than any other state on its latest roster. There are 37 Utes from California (second is Utah with 35) including nine from Northern California.
Utah Leaders:
Rushing: Quinton Ganther (10 G, 183-1,000 yards, 6 TDs)
Passing: Brain Johnson (10 G, 210-330, 2,892 yards, 18 TDs)
Receiving: John Madsen (9 G, 55-672 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
Career Record: 6-5 (1st year)
Record at Utah: 6-6 (1st year)
GEORGIA TECH:
Georgia Tech went 3-4 vs. teams participating in bowl games this season. The Yellow Jackets defeated Auburn (23-14), Clemson (10-9) and Miami (14-10), while falling to Virginia Tech (7-51), NC State (14-17), Virginia (17-27) and Georgia (7-14).
Georgia Tech Leaders:
Rushing: P.J. Daniels (10 G, 178-821 yards, 3 TDs)
Passing: Reggie Ball (10 G, 163-342, 1,907 yards, 10 TDs)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (11 G, 52-869 yards, 6 Tds)
Head Coach: Chan Gailey
Career Record: 52-32 (7th year)
Record at Georgia Tech: 28-21 (4th year)
COACHING NOTES:
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is just the second Utah football coach ever to receive a bowl invitation in his first season as head coach. Whittingham made history in his first game as head coach when he helped Utah break a 75-year-old school win streak record with a victory over Arizona. He and his team extended the record streak to 18 games a week later against Utah State. Named head coach on Dec. 8, 2004, Whittingham has been a member of the Ute staff since 1994, when he coached the defensive line for Utah’s 10-2 Freedom Bowl champion team. He was promoted to defensive coordinator a year later—a position he held until his promotion to head coach. In his 11 years as a Ute assistant, the program compiled an 86-41 record and played in six bowl games (winning five). He served as co-head coach at the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, helping to lead Utah to a 35-7 victory over Pittsburgh. The Ute defense recorded 14 top-20 statistical rankings during Whittingham’s 10 years as the coordinator. Utah led the league in scoring defense in four of the last six years (placing second the other two).
GAME NOTES:
Utah has been designated as the home team in the Emerald Bowl and will wear red jerseys. This will be the first meeting between Georgia Tech and Utah. Georgia Tech is 6-1 against Mountain West teams, including 3-0 vs. Air Force, 1-1 vs. BYU and 2-0 vs. TCU. Utah is 1-1 all-time against the ACC. The Utes defeated North Carolina (46-16) in 2004 in Salt Lake City and fell to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in 2005 (17-31). Georgia Tech and Utah have one common opponent this season in North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets defeated the Tar Heels, 27-21, while the Utes fell, 31-17.
Analysis
The Emerald Bowl will pit one of the nation's best offensive teams (Utah) against one of its top defensive teams (Georgia Tech). Utah ranks No. 12 in the nation (first in the MWC) in total offense, averaging 466.0 yards per game. Tech is No. 12 in the nation in total defense, allowing 296.4 yards per game. Utah ranks No. 61 in total defense (372.8 average) and Georgia Tech ranks No. 81 in total offense (345.7 average). Both teams come into this bowl game having great success in their previous bowl games in recent history. Utah has given up a total of 13 points in its last three bowl games. The Utes defeated USC, 10-6 in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, shut out Southern Miss, 17-0 in the 2003 Liberty Bowl and cruised past Pittsburgh, 35-7 in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. Georgia Tech comes into the Emerald Bowl with a 7-4 overall record, 5-3 in the ACC (tied for third in the 12-team league) and ranked 24th in both polls. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech destroyed their previous two bowl foes winning 51-14 last year against Syracuse in the Champs Sports Bowl, and 52-10 against Tulsa in the Humanitarian Bowl.
From the start, it is clear that Georgia Tech is the better team here and battle tested as they have faced the nations 14th toughest schedule. When your schedule includes three opponents playing on January 2, and three other opponents that defeated another team playing on January 3, then some losses will inevitably be landing on your side. The Yellow Jackets faced four teams that won nine or more games (Virginia Tech, Miami, Auburn, Georgia) and a total of seven bowl teams Indeed, Georgia Tech and Southern Cal are the only two teams in the nation that have two wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 10. They have a victory against North Carolina as well, a team that defeated Utah easily, 31-17. Utah has no quality victories to speak of, with its season-ending victory at BYU being its most impressive.
Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta is looking to impress the world and open up better things for himself and his Yellow Jackets defense represents the biggest lifetime challenge for the new Utah starting quarterback Bret Ratliff, who completed only 51% of his throws against a slower and more passive BYU defense in his only other collegiate start to date. Ratliff stepped in when starting QB Brian Johnson (who suffered a torn ACL prior to the team’s 41-34 OT victory finale at BYU) got injured. Ratliff completed 17 of 32 for 240 yards. with 4 TDs and no ints. in his lone start at BYU to end the season. But that was against the poor BYU defense, and not an elite stopping unit such as Georgia’s Tech’s. The Yellow Jackets rank in the Top 20 nationally in total defense (10th), rushing defense (11th), pass efficiency defense (14th), scoring defense (16th), turnover margin (17th). Over the last two games against third-ranked Miami and 13th-ranked Georgia, the Tech defense allowed just three touchdowns, 24 points and 503 total yards, including just 98 yards rushing in the two games. Miami and Georgia were a combined 5-for-29 on third downs. Comparatively , Utah allowed 4.74 yards per carry and 5.95 yards per pass play, while the Yellow Jackets allowed just 4.01 ypc and 5.15 ypp against a much better schedule. Utah does have better offensive numbers, but again, that had more to do with its weak conference than anything.
Motivation might be a big concern for those of you thinking about backing Georgia Tech. This game will mark the fourth time in five years that Georgia Tech has had to travel across the country for a bowl game. After finishing 7-4 this year with victories against Miami (FL) and Auburn, the Yellow Jackets didn't think they would be traveling again. To make matters worse, they were shunned by the Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn., for a 6-5 Virginia team. They also were passed over by the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte, NC, for a 6-5 NC State team. Finally, they were disappointed to know that they would have been playing in the hometown Peach Bowl had Florida State not upset Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. The announcement of Georgia Tech's ninth straight bowl bid didn't go over too well with the school's basketball fans. During a break late in the Yellow Jackets' 63-54 home basketball victory over Virginia on December 4 came the announcement that Tech's football team would play Utah in the Emerald Bowl. The fans responded with loud boos. The early comments by the players after this bid was announced was so bad that Gailey finally had to tell them to “cool it”, but getting them to stop complaining is one thing; finding the interest and energy level to play well here is another. "Is it a new bowl?" asked senior safety Chris Reis. "Well, it's new to me." Nevertheless, Georgia Tech has starred as Bowl Game Serial Killers recently, class-dropping from ACC and top-notch non-conference opponents into 52-10 and 51-14 drubbing's of Tulsa and Syracuse the last two seasons.
Clearly Utah moves up in class for this match-up. But, if Brian Johnson were not injured and able to play in this game, I would probably have opined that Utah might cover this heavy spread. But he is not playing, and this will probably be too tough of a defense for rookie Brett Ratliff to have the same kind of success that he did at BYU in his only start. If executed properly, the unique Ute shotgun-option would be able to operate with some success, especially with complementary weapons such as 1000-yard rusher Quinton Ganther, and a now healthy set of wideouts. But the inexperience is the neutralizer to that attack. Assuming that Georgia Tech overcomes its disappointment in traveling to San Francisco and comes to play, which history suggests they will, the Yellow Jackets should have no problem getting their offense going against the Utes. Calvin Johnson is a big-time threat at wide receiver and P.J. Daniels can open up some running lanes with his legs. They should also be able to shut down the Utah offense and force a few turnovers, which could lead to a decisive victory for the Yellow Jackets.
Forecast: Oklahoma 28, Oregon 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTAH/GEORGIA TECH UNDER 46
It's always noon somewhere! 
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
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