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My bowl GOY would be on Oklahoma +3 tonight. I'm not, and have only posted one play on here (won by 4.5, so not overly impressive), but just wanted to share that this is my largest wager of the season. Here is a little writeup:
I remember before the lines came out, reading on another forum that people expected Oregon to be a 6-7 point favorite in this game. My actual line was Oklahoma -5, and I expected the Vegas line to open at pk because of the public perception (10-1 team, ranked in top 10, against a 7-4 team) of each team. Indeed, the line opened at Oregon -1, which proves to me that the linesmakers don't consider Oregon to be a legit team. I certainly don't either, and both teams' results of the last half of the season - OU when Peterson was back from an injury he battled the first half of the season, and when Bomar had quietly progressed into a quality quarterback, and UO that is missing their most effective QB, and a running game that is ineffective - tell me that the wrong team is favored in this one.
Since AD has come back, Oklahoma's offense has been rolling. They have won their last six games (I say this because only the officials in Lubbock thought Texas Tech beat the Sooners - even a TT fan I know says OU got jobbed in that one), mostly in convincing fashion. Bomar has proven to be a running threat, along with his newfound ability to hit open receivers. Oregon's defense has been getting gashed by mediocre at best offenses, and hasn't been able to handle weak opposition - other than Oregon St., who had completely packed it in for the year - since Clemons' injury.
Without the ability to run the ball, Oregon isn't going to move the ball at will. They haven't been able to do that all season against the phantom PAC 10 defenses, and this may be the most athletic, best coached defense they have seen all season. Dixon and Leaf have done alright since replacing Clemons, but aren't going to test the OU secondary enough, since the Sooners will be able to drop into coverage. Also, OU can bring pressure from all angles to confuse the inexperienced quarterbacks. This game also features one of the bigger special teams mismatches of all the bowl games, and I would almost be surprised if Oregon didn't have a punt blocked tonight.
Mike Belotti is a good coach, but he is going to get outcoached in this game. It doesn't hurt that Bob's brother Mike is the coach at Arizona, who played with Oregon earlier this season, despite being outmanned from a personnel standpoint. Stoops will reach into his bag of tricks at least twice, and Belotti has openly stated it is difficult to motivate his team for this game. Stoops has said his team is thrilled to be in this game after the ugly start to the season, and playing a highly ranked team is enough reason to be up for this one. And motivation is always a key factor in the Holiday Bowl. It is pretty well documented that the favorite hasn't covered any of the last seven Holiday Bowls.
I remember before the lines came out, reading on another forum that people expected Oregon to be a 6-7 point favorite in this game. My actual line was Oklahoma -5, and I expected the Vegas line to open at pk because of the public perception (10-1 team, ranked in top 10, against a 7-4 team) of each team. Indeed, the line opened at Oregon -1, which proves to me that the linesmakers don't consider Oregon to be a legit team. I certainly don't either, and both teams' results of the last half of the season - OU when Peterson was back from an injury he battled the first half of the season, and when Bomar had quietly progressed into a quality quarterback, and UO that is missing their most effective QB, and a running game that is ineffective - tell me that the wrong team is favored in this one.
Since AD has come back, Oklahoma's offense has been rolling. They have won their last six games (I say this because only the officials in Lubbock thought Texas Tech beat the Sooners - even a TT fan I know says OU got jobbed in that one), mostly in convincing fashion. Bomar has proven to be a running threat, along with his newfound ability to hit open receivers. Oregon's defense has been getting gashed by mediocre at best offenses, and hasn't been able to handle weak opposition - other than Oregon St., who had completely packed it in for the year - since Clemons' injury.
Without the ability to run the ball, Oregon isn't going to move the ball at will. They haven't been able to do that all season against the phantom PAC 10 defenses, and this may be the most athletic, best coached defense they have seen all season. Dixon and Leaf have done alright since replacing Clemons, but aren't going to test the OU secondary enough, since the Sooners will be able to drop into coverage. Also, OU can bring pressure from all angles to confuse the inexperienced quarterbacks. This game also features one of the bigger special teams mismatches of all the bowl games, and I would almost be surprised if Oregon didn't have a punt blocked tonight.
Mike Belotti is a good coach, but he is going to get outcoached in this game. It doesn't hurt that Bob's brother Mike is the coach at Arizona, who played with Oregon earlier this season, despite being outmanned from a personnel standpoint. Stoops will reach into his bag of tricks at least twice, and Belotti has openly stated it is difficult to motivate his team for this game. Stoops has said his team is thrilled to be in this game after the ugly start to the season, and playing a highly ranked team is enough reason to be up for this one. And motivation is always a key factor in the Holiday Bowl. It is pretty well documented that the favorite hasn't covered any of the last seven Holiday Bowls.
It's always noon somewhere! 
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