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The MAC conference has always been a good team to take during the bowl season....But that was when Marshall was part of the conference. Since their departure Toledo now has taken over as the Bully of the conference along with No. Illinois and Bowling Green.....Toledo is the only one other then Akron representing the conference this year. Toledo did their part in crushing UTEP and now its up to surprising Akron who is making there first appearance in a bowl game in the schools history.
Will they be excited yes i think so...Will they be motivated yes i think so. Will they be distracted by the week of bowl game festivities yes i think so. But Memphis has been here and done all of that. And last years defeat in their bowl game aganist MAC Bowling Green will be enough motivation for this Tiger Team to redeeem themselves and show the country what a running game can do to help win ball games just as Commandment # 4 says so.
With all this said.....am not going to forget Commandment # 4
IV. Thou shalt respect the running game.
Despite the many changes in the game of football, the ability to control the line of scrimmage has always had a strong correlation to success both straight up and Against the Spread. Controlling the line of scrimmage is best evidenced by the ability to run the ball on offense and to stop the run on defense. Historically, teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in excess of 60%. There are many reasons why such a strong correlation exists, including the obvious one that a team that has the lead is more likely to run the ball in the end stages of a game than to prolong the game by attempting passes.
There has been a tendency in recent years for Bowls to be high scoring, especially the minor Bowls. A part of the reason why this is so is because one or both teams lack a strong running game to be able to control the clock and protect leads late in games. Often that's the difference between a 9-2 record and a major Bowl bid and a 7-4 log and a minor Bowl appearance.
One indicator that has been successful over the long term has been simply average yards per rush on offense. The team having the better rushing average has covered over 55% of the time in all Bowl games dating back to the mid 1980s. In recent years the success rate has faltered a bit but it is still a good indicator of pointspread success in general, not just in Bowl games.
How important is the rushing game in Bowls? Consider that in the almsot 350 Bowl games played since 1991 the team gaining more rushing yards in a Bowl game has covered at better than a 79% clip. Compare that to the 51% ATS success rate enjoyed by the team gaining more passing yards. The team that has the better average yards per rush in a Bowl game (not necessarily the same team that gains the most rushing yards) has covered at slightly under a 75% rate. THAT's how strong the rushing game is!
And here is why am taking the Memphis St. Tigers
MEMPHIS ST. - 4.0 ( 8 UNITS )
UNDER 51.5 ( 4 UNITS )
Good Luck !
The MAC conference has always been a good team to take during the bowl season....But that was when Marshall was part of the conference. Since their departure Toledo now has taken over as the Bully of the conference along with No. Illinois and Bowling Green.....Toledo is the only one other then Akron representing the conference this year. Toledo did their part in crushing UTEP and now its up to surprising Akron who is making there first appearance in a bowl game in the schools history.
Will they be excited yes i think so...Will they be motivated yes i think so. Will they be distracted by the week of bowl game festivities yes i think so. But Memphis has been here and done all of that. And last years defeat in their bowl game aganist MAC Bowling Green will be enough motivation for this Tiger Team to redeeem themselves and show the country what a running game can do to help win ball games just as Commandment # 4 says so.
With all this said.....am not going to forget Commandment # 4
IV. Thou shalt respect the running game.
Despite the many changes in the game of football, the ability to control the line of scrimmage has always had a strong correlation to success both straight up and Against the Spread. Controlling the line of scrimmage is best evidenced by the ability to run the ball on offense and to stop the run on defense. Historically, teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in excess of 60%. There are many reasons why such a strong correlation exists, including the obvious one that a team that has the lead is more likely to run the ball in the end stages of a game than to prolong the game by attempting passes.
There has been a tendency in recent years for Bowls to be high scoring, especially the minor Bowls. A part of the reason why this is so is because one or both teams lack a strong running game to be able to control the clock and protect leads late in games. Often that's the difference between a 9-2 record and a major Bowl bid and a 7-4 log and a minor Bowl appearance.
One indicator that has been successful over the long term has been simply average yards per rush on offense. The team having the better rushing average has covered over 55% of the time in all Bowl games dating back to the mid 1980s. In recent years the success rate has faltered a bit but it is still a good indicator of pointspread success in general, not just in Bowl games.
How important is the rushing game in Bowls? Consider that in the almsot 350 Bowl games played since 1991 the team gaining more rushing yards in a Bowl game has covered at better than a 79% clip. Compare that to the 51% ATS success rate enjoyed by the team gaining more passing yards. The team that has the better average yards per rush in a Bowl game (not necessarily the same team that gains the most rushing yards) has covered at slightly under a 75% rate. THAT's how strong the rushing game is!
And here is why am taking the Memphis St. Tigers
MEMPHIS ST. - 4.0 ( 8 UNITS )
UNDER 51.5 ( 4 UNITS )
Good Luck !
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