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NFL Week 16 analysis
Bears (10-4) @ Packers (3-11)-Green Bay mailed in awful 48-3 loss on Monday night; expect them to give what little they have left vs their arch-rival here, trying to avoid being swept by Chicago for first time in 14 years. Problem is, Bear defense is hungry, allowing just six TDs on last 70 drives, and they're better in colder weather, as Favre bullets harder to catch in sub-freezing temps. Switch to Grossman at QB might help Bears a little, but not like he's Unitas or Fouts; Bears haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 6, and are 13 for last 66 on third down. Under is 11-1 last 12 Bear games. Chicago clinches NFC North and first round bye in playoffs with win here.
Vikings (8-6) @ Ravens (5-9)-Baltimore is 5-2 at home, 0-7 on road; their defense has perked up since Reed came back from injury, allowing one TD on last 33 drives. Vikings lost for first time in seven weeks last Sunday, coming up empty on three of four red zone trips; they won last three road games after losing first four- they're 1-2 on grass this year, winning only 20-17 at Lambeau. Ravens actually covered three of last four games as favorite; their home wins are by 10,13,3,1,45 points. Baltimore is 0-7 this year when it allows more than 15 points, 5-2 when they don't. Last five Viking games stayed under.
Patriots (9-5) @ Jets (3-11)-New England -3.5 tells me we might see Doug Flutie under center Monday night, or worse yet, USC rookie Cassel, who never started college game. Belichick is locked into #4 spot in AFC playoffs, and since they won't have bye week to rest up, he's too smart not to give key guys (Brady?) time to heal. Jets haven't tanked, but they're not very good, with one win in last nine games. Pats won first meeting 16-3 three weeks ago, outrushing Jets 146-41 (total yards, 397-164). Under is 5-1 in last six Patriot games, 4-2 in last six Jet contests.
Bears (10-4) @ Packers (3-11)-Green Bay mailed in awful 48-3 loss on Monday night; expect them to give what little they have left vs their arch-rival here, trying to avoid being swept by Chicago for first time in 14 years. Problem is, Bear defense is hungry, allowing just six TDs on last 70 drives, and they're better in colder weather, as Favre bullets harder to catch in sub-freezing temps. Switch to Grossman at QB might help Bears a little, but not like he's Unitas or Fouts; Bears haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 6, and are 13 for last 66 on third down. Under is 11-1 last 12 Bear games. Chicago clinches NFC North and first round bye in playoffs with win here.
Vikings (8-6) @ Ravens (5-9)-Baltimore is 5-2 at home, 0-7 on road; their defense has perked up since Reed came back from injury, allowing one TD on last 33 drives. Vikings lost for first time in seven weeks last Sunday, coming up empty on three of four red zone trips; they won last three road games after losing first four- they're 1-2 on grass this year, winning only 20-17 at Lambeau. Ravens actually covered three of last four games as favorite; their home wins are by 10,13,3,1,45 points. Baltimore is 0-7 this year when it allows more than 15 points, 5-2 when they don't. Last five Viking games stayed under.
Patriots (9-5) @ Jets (3-11)-New England -3.5 tells me we might see Doug Flutie under center Monday night, or worse yet, USC rookie Cassel, who never started college game. Belichick is locked into #4 spot in AFC playoffs, and since they won't have bye week to rest up, he's too smart not to give key guys (Brady?) time to heal. Jets haven't tanked, but they're not very good, with one win in last nine games. Pats won first meeting 16-3 three weeks ago, outrushing Jets 146-41 (total yards, 397-164). Under is 5-1 in last six Patriot games, 4-2 in last six Jet contests.
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