The Public Is On ....question For U Guys Is Should 1 Fade These Plays?

[therealdeal]

Based On About 800-1200 Plays

Denver 69.4
Tampa Bay 69.53
Cincinnati 66.29
Miami 64.38
Philly 62.78
Indy 63.95
Jacksonville 65.33
Pittsuburgh 72.66
Carolina 58.54
New Orleans 55.5
San Francisco 57.75
Giants 53.81
San Diego 55.42
All Spreads

Totals
59.06 Over Miami/tenn
54.3 Over Jackx/houston
53.97 Over Atl/tampa
50.51 Under Det/no
50.38 Under Sf/st Louis
50.53 Over Phl/arizona
54.83 Over Dal/carolina
60.28 Over Kc/san Diego
63.52 Over Den/oak
64.33 Over Clev/pitts
65.14 Over Nyg/wash
70.56 Over Bug/cin
70.63 Over Indy/sea

[TRUCKIN]

take the 3.5 with atlanta

gl

[therealdeal]

nah already took tampa but i hear how everyone says bet against the public these are a like some bets of the public on sportsbooks does anyone fades these plays or

[MONGALOID]

NO you shouldnt. Just because 69% of the people are on Denver doesnt mean that the majority of the money is on them. Vegas wins $$ they dont win the battle of how many people are on each side of a game. For example using your numbers say out of 100 people 69 bet denver and 31 bet oakland right? What if the 69 people who bet denver bet $50 each and the 31 who bet oak bet $500 each. Who would the bookies/vegas need?????

[therealdeal]

okay so this information on public bettin is useless then

[MONGALOID]

okay so this information on public bettin is useless then

Yes I do think it is useless. Can you make a living off of using that information?? Can you hit 60%+ on a consistent basis using that info? I dont think so. If you have some way to analyze that info and turn it into consistent winners please share it with us. G/L

[jackal]

i followed those #s for a while... They really dont mean anything. Like Mong said, its all about the amount of money on the game, not the # of players on a game.

[Spearit]

The public percentages is not useless- only knowledge of how and when to use them does matter. I see the money played and i see the smart money on the less popular come in- I then go to my other systems and see if the matchup is worth a play. I use RPI and situational trends since 1997 and percentage of edge over the spread when money moves in their direction. Saying fade the public will not get the job done - no not by itself. Think outside the box.

[MONGALOID]

The public percentages is not useless- only knowledge of how and when to use them does matter. I see the money played and i see the smart money on the less popular come in- I then go to my other systems and see if the matchup is worth a play. I use RPI and situational trends since 1997 and percentage of edge over the spread when money moves in their direction. Saying fade the public will not get the job done - no not by itself. Think outside the box.

Hey bud I am not going to get in an argument on here, I'm just not in the mood. I know you have to or someone else has to be on the other side to make an argument and thats what you are doing. You would argue your point until I agreed or stopped replying. All I did was answer the guys question and gave a very thought provoking answer which possibly he had never looked at the numbers that way, as far as $$ amounts being tied into the numbers he has in front of him. He wasnt asking about rpi or situational trends or smart money or how to tie theses numbers into other systems. You are simply muddying the water by going into the way you use the numbers. HE was asking if he should use the percentages on a PURELY numbers basis ONLY. And I would think that you and everyone else knows that using those numbers by themselves its not a proper way to analyze a game. Now if you want to tell us why YOU think that using the percentages alone will win(like what he was asking in the beginning) please let us know how to do it.

[KillerB79]

wondering

i dont think you should or should not fade the public but are you guys sure those totals are not the total $$$ of the bets instead of the amount of people betting? If it is I was completely fooled and I think I am not alone.

Thanks