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**Spark** · 12-24-2005, 10:26 AM

NFL Week 16 analysis
Giants (10-4) @ Redskins (8-6)-Big Blue crushed Skins in first meeting, 36-0, outrushing Washington 262-38, forcing four turnovers, holding Brunell to 2.2 yards per pass attempt- they also started five of their 15 drives in Washington territory. Both sides playing well now, as Giants won last four games and covered four of last five; they're just 1-2 as dog, though, and 2-3 on road, beating 49ers, Eagles. Redskins won, covered their last three games, outscoring foes 76-29; they're in desperate straits to win here, while Giants now have cushion in division race. Six of last eight Washington games stayed under total.

Bills (4-10) @ Bengals (11-3)-Two teams going in opposite directions, as Buffalo lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), getting outscored 86-22 in second half. Bills are 0-6 on road (2-4 vs spread0, losing by 16,12,21,5,38,1 point, but they've won seven in row vs Bengals, last losing in '88. The '05 Bengals are rollin', though, with four wins in row and six of seven (4-2 vs spread in last six); they've covered just one of their last six home games, but in five games since their bye (over 4-0-1), they scored 36.2 ppg, with 21 TDs on their last 55 drives.

Steelers (9-5) @ Browns (5-9)-Cleveland is 0-4 after a win this year (1-3 vs spread), losing by 7,13,13,12 points; they lost first meeting 34-21 at Heinz, with Pitt outrushing Browns 159-61. Big Ben averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt, as Steelers started three of their ten drives in Brown territory. Last two weeks, Cowher's defense allowed just one TD on 21 drives vs Bears, Vikings; Minnesota had ball in red zone four times last week, but managed just one FG. Browns are 3-3 at home, with five of the six games staying under the total.

Chargers (9-5) @ Chiefs (8-6)- San Diego won six of last seven games, posting huge win at Indy last week; they beat Chiefs 28-20 in Week 8, in game Bolts led 21-3 at half. Total yardage in game was 424-418, but San Diego scored four TDs with no FGs tried, while Chiefs were just 2-13 on third down and settled for two TDs, two FGs tried. Chiefs gave up 223 rushing yards last week, in hideous display of tackling, now they see LT, but KC also has double digit December home win streak alive. Chargers won five of their last six road games, losing only on blocked FG at Philly.

Titans (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7)-Miami won last four games, by 12,1,2,4 points, but they're 0-5 vs spread in last five home games (0-3 as home favorite); they have three takeaways in each of last four games (+4) with 18 sacks. Tennessee scored 24 points in row vs Seattle last week, but lost 28-24; they're 1-5 on road, with losses by 27,4,10,6,32 points (2-4 as road dog). Titans just 9 for last 37 on third down, as their running game gained just 71 yards per game last three weeks. Fish are 0-6 if they score less than 20 points. Over is 5-2 in Miami home games.

Jaguars (10-4) @ Texans (2-12)-Jags tempting fate with close wins vs bad teams, but they still hold #5 spot in AFC, with two soft games left; they've won six of last seven games, all vs sub-.500 teams, with only one of the six by more than seven points. Jags won first meeting vs Texans in Week 9, rallying from 7-0 halftime deficit in game where both sides had pair of 80+-yard TD drives. Houston got second win last week, holding Arizona to 39 rushing yards and starting five of their 13 drives in Cardinal territory. It was just second cover for Houston in seven home games.

Lions (4-10) @ Saints (3-11)-Haslett's crew is favored, despite losing last three games by combined score of 73-30; they don't have to travel for just third time all year, as this game is in Alamodome, where Saints beat Bills 19-7, lost 34-31 to Falcons; they are 0-1 as favorite this year. Detroit is actually worse, losing last five games and seven of last eight (2-6 vs spread); they're 1-5 on road, winning only 13-10 at Cleveland. Lions gave up 168.8 rushing yards per game in last five weeks. Four of last five Detroit games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (8-6) @ Panthers (10-4)-Dallas lost three of last four games, getting squashed by Redskins last week, 35-7 (Skins had four TDs on five drives that started in Cowboy territory); they're 1-4 in last five road games, with only win the game at Philly when McNabb threw pick for winning score when Eagles led. Carolina won three of last four games to gain top spot in NFC South; they won five of last six home games and covered six of eight games since their bye. Dallas allowed 150.7 rushing yards per game over last four weeks. Last six Panther games stayed under the total.

Falcons (8-6) @ Buccaneers (9-5)-Have to question Vick's health after seeing how little he ran at Chicago; Falcons scored four TDs on last 39 drives, bad time to be in slump. Atlanta 2-4 in last six games; they scored no TDs on 23 drives in last two road contests, and are now 9th in NFC, when only top six get in. Bucs won first meeting 30-27 in Dome, despite being outgained 443-258; Bucs had +12 yard edge in field position in that game, as five of 11 Falcon drives started 80+ yards from end zone. Under is 4-0 in last four Tampa games, 3-1 in last four Atlanta games.

49ers (2-12) @ Rams (5-9)-Can't lay 9.5 points with bumbling Rams (15 penalties last week, lost despite +3 turnover margin and 178 rushing yards), and can't take points with 49ers (0-7 on road, 2-5 as road dog, with losses by 39,17,35,8,11,1,38 points). Third week on row for Niners, who upset Rams in Week 1 at 'stick (total yardage 405-217, Rams) as since-departed Rattay averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt vs hideous Ram DBs. St Louis is 1-5 since its bye, as Grim Reaper warms up in bullpen. Fitzpatrick had to be lifted last week; Rams averaged just 3.6 yards per pass. Last three St Louis games stayed under the total.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cardinals (4-10)- Redbirds' last game at Sun Devil Stadium, where Arizona is fittingly 1-5 this year, with only win 20-10 over Titans in game they were outgained 348-173. Warner is gone for year, McCown had flu last week, so Arizona once again playing out string of dreadful season, losing six of last eight games. Eagles got first road win in last five tries last week, despite allowing 178 yards on ground to Rams and minus-3 turnover ratio. Long trip west for Philly on short week; they've been outsacked 14-1 in last three games. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Colts (13-1) @ Seahawks (12-2)-Super Bowl preview, or Seneca Wallace vs Jim Sorgi in Mop-Up Bowl? Line of Seattle -6 points suggests Colt indifference to long trip on short week while Seattle still needs win to wrap up home field thru NFC playoffs. Hawks haven't lost since Week 4 OT game at Redskins; they're
5-2 as home favorite this year, winning by 3,25,32,3,15,3,38 pts. Seattle scored 3+ offensive TDs in each of their last seven games (9 TDs on last 18 drives), but their defense was riddled by Titan TE's last week. Another factor is this: Since this is potential Super Bowl matchup, will teams play this coy, holding things back for a February night in Detroit?

Raiders (4-10) @ Broncos (11-3)-Oakland lost four in row and six of seven; looks like they've throw in towel, with four of last five losses by 12+ points, in addition to hideous 9-7 home loss to Browns and their rookie QB last week. Shanahan hates Al Davis because he fired him, then screwed him out of $250,000, so he pummels Oakland at every turn; Broncos won first meeting 31-17 six weeks ago, with Broncos outrushing Raiders 121-60, and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Denver is 5-2 as home fave this season. Oakland is 2-5 on road, with losses by 10,3,4,24,16 points.

Bears (10-4) @ Packers (3-11)-Green Bay mailed in awful 48-3 loss on Monday night; expect them to give what little they have left vs their arch-rival here, trying to avoid being swept by Chicago for first time in 14 years. Problem is, Bear defense is hungry, allowing just six TDs on last 70 drives, and they're better in colder weather, as Favre bullets harder to catch in sub-freezing temps. Switch to Grossman at QB might help Bears a little, but not like he's Unitas or Fouts; Bears haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 6, and are 13 for last 66 on third down. Under is 11-1 last 12 Bear games.

Vikings (8-6) @ Ravens (5-9)-Baltimore is 5-2 at home, 0-7 on road; their defense has perked up since Reed came back from injury, allowing one TD on last 33 drives. Vikings lost for first time in seven weeks last Sunday, coming up empty on three of four red zone trips; they won last three road games after losing first four- they're 1-2 on grass this year, winning only 20-17 at Lambeau. Ravens actually covered three of last four games as favorite; their home wins are by 10,13,3,1,45 points. Baltimore is 0-7 this year when it allows more than 15 points, 5-2 when they don't. Last five Viking games stayed under.

Patriots (9-5) @ Jets (3-11)-New England -3.5 tells me we might see Doug Flutie under center Monday night, or worse yet, USC rookie Cassel, who never started college game. Belichick is locked into #4 spot in AFC playoffs, and since they won't have bye week to rest up, he's too smart not to give key guys (Brady?) time to heal. Jets haven't tanked, but they're not very good, with one win in last nine games. Pats won first meeting 16-3 three weeks ago, outrushing Jets 146-41 (total yards, 397-164). Under is 5-1 in last six Patriot games, 4-2 in last six Jet contests.

**Spark** · 12-24-2005, 10:27 AM

Monday, 12/19/2005

GREEN BAY (3 - 10) at BALTIMORE (4 - 9) - 12/19/2005, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (4 - 10) at CINCINNATI (11 - 3) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) at CLEVELAND (5 - 9) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 6) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (4 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (10 - 4) at HOUSTON (2 - 12) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 10) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 11) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (8 - 6) at CAROLINA (10 - 4) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (10 - 4) at WASHINGTON (8 - 6) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 37-60 ATS (-29.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (8 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 12) at ST LOUIS (5 - 9) - 12/24/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) at ARIZONA (4 - 10) - 12/24/2005, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 1) at SEATTLE (12 - 2) - 12/24/2005, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at DENVER (11 - 3) - 12/24/2005, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (10 - 4) at GREEN BAY (3 - 10) - 12/25/2005, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (8 - 6) at BALTIMORE (4 - 9) - 12/25/2005, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 11) - 12/26/2005, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**crswir** · 12-24-2005, 10:35 AM

"Other" Trends

Pro Basketball Trend Report
SAN ANTONIO (21 - 6) at DETROIT (21 - 3) - 12/25/2005, 12:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-5 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA LAKERS (15 - 11) at MIAMI (15 - 12) - 12/25/2005, 3:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Spark** · 12-24-2005, 03:03 PM

Saturday's Bonus List of 13: Ranting about baseball......
13) Yesterday was my birthday, and I stumble on this goofy press conference with ****** Damon on TV. No one should get physically ill on their birthday, so I'll make this quick.........

12) Scott Boras is simply the most evil man in sports; he must be a very good poker player, the way he swindles owners to shell out ludicrous amounts of money. Wonder how much he makes in a year? Sports would be better without him, at least sports fans would be better off.

11) Disturbing new trend: making players' wives part of the recruiting package for free agents. Damon's wife got 18 roses at this press conference. Red Sox must have offered her only a dozen.

10) Bubba Crosby used to wear #19, then switched when Al Leiter came to the Bronx; now, he loses #18 to Damon; hope he at least gets a trip to Disneyland out of it, like the one the Giants' punter got from Eli Manning for switching numbers.

9) Michael Kay called centerfield in the Bronx baseball park "the most hallowed piece of real estate in sports." Could he be any more sickening? It is like he tries to agitate people who think the Bronx baseball team is evil (which they are).

8) Damon isn't a great speaker; he also is prone to starting bit slow most springs. Wonder what the reaction will be in April and May if he gets off to another slow start.

7) Of course, New York City has always been very special to Damon; what else would they expect him to say? "Well, until they offered me $52 million, I really hated this place."

6) Damon thinks there are Red Sox fans who are happy for him. I despise both of these teams, but I hope he breaks his ankle while he's hitting .140, so I can imagine what a Red Sox fan must be thinking.

5) Suzyn Waldman actually asked Damon if he thought he's made it as a baseball player now, because he plays for Bronx. Quite possibly, the most arrogant, pompous question ever asked. Like his career would suck if he stayed in Boston. How did this woman make a career in broadcasting?

4) Joe Torre didn't speak at the press conference, just posed for pictures. Doesn't that seem a little strange, considering that Randy Levine spoke? Who the hell is Randy Levine? And why was he wishing people Happy Kwanzaa?

3) What a proud moment for baseball. $13 million a year for a guy nearing the downside of his career, who can't throw, has little power, but can field well, and is a decent, but not the #1 leadoff hitter in baseball. No wonder it costs over $100 to see a game in the South Bronx Stadium.

2) One piece of good news; less than 8 weeks until the start of spring training. Which means eight weeks, at least, of cold, hideous weather here in America's second-favorite city.

1) From now on, I will never again mention a rivalry between pro sports teams. It was stupid of me ever to do so; there are real rivalries in college sports, but in pro sports, only rivalries that matter are between agents competing for new clients.

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