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Confirmed Nfl Plays Week #16 (update #1)

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  • Confirmed Nfl Plays Week #16 (update #1)

    NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.

    8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
    6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
    5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES

    4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
    3* STRONG SELECTION
    2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
    1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER

    OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
    --------------------------------------------------
    SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
    2* CAROLINA –4.5
    2* CHARGERS/CHIEFS UNDER 49.5
    1* LIONS/SAINTS OVER 38.5
    1* CLEVELAND +7

    SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
    2* GREEN BAY +7
    2* BALTIMORE -3
    Opinions: GREEN BAY +260
    --------------------------------------------------
    DALLAS (8 - 6) at CAROLINA (10 - 4)
    Week 16 Saturday, 12/24/2005 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    With both teams fighting for playoff position and both teams coming off tough division games, the team who can gear it up emotionally is the odds-on winner today. The Cowboys (8-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) suffered a first half meltdown on Sunday before losing to the Redskins 35-7 in an important game in the NFC Wild Card hunt. Seven sacks, four turnovers and four touchdown passes, and the celebration never stopped in Washington's most one-sided victory over Dallas in the 45-year history of the rivalry. Drew Bledsoe threw three interceptions and lost one fumble to account for all of Dallas' turnovers, even though the banged-up Redskins' defense played without injured starters LaVar Arrington and Carlos Rogers. Dallas has been faltering going 1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS the last 4 games. The run defense has been getting torched, allowing 144, 127, 161 and 171 yards on the ground the last 4 games! Meanwhile, the Panthers (10-4) continued their run to an NFC South Division title when they defeated hapless New Orleans 27-10. Jake Delhomme led Carolina back into first place in the NFC South, throwing for a touchdown and running for another. Delhomme was 13-of-22 for 176 yards. With the Panthers never trailing, he relied on a solid running game to control the clock. Carolina rushed for 161 yards, with DeShaun Foster running for a team-leading 75 yards.

    Yes I am aware that Dallas is one of the NFL’s worst (home) favorites 6-13 ATS in their last 19 tries, but I cannot ignore that the Cowboys check in with even worse numbers as they are a miserable 1-20 SU and 5-16 ATS on the road against .556 or better opposition, including 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS when it's a non-division opponent. Carolina will also come into this contest with a fundamental match-up advantage when their defense is on the field. Carolina can and will bring pressure with their front 4, and that's the kind of defense that has always given Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe trouble since his mobility is embarrassing and the Cowboy offensive line is decimated by injuries. With Peppers and Rucker coming at him all game, Bledsoe isn't going to have it any easier here. With their miserable loss last week at the NY Giants, Dallas is pretty much out of the playoff picture. Meanwhile, Carolina controls their own destiny, and has a legit shot at a first round bye. This is the Panthers final regular season home game, and though they have a key match-up with division rival Atlanta next week, there will be no let down here because they have to stay a game ahead of Tampa to win the division. The fact that Dallas is a perfect 0-7 ATS on the road after tackling the Redskins cements it. Panthers roar!

    Forecast: CAR Panthers 28, DAL Cowboys 14
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON CAROLINA –4.5

    SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 6)
    Week 16 Saturday, 12/24/2005 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The events of this past weekend certainly make this a marquee "must win" for both teams. San Diego (9-5 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) might be the best team in football despite 5 losses (all by razor-thin margins). They might not even make the playoffs, either. But the Chargers cleared their first hurdle with a 26-17 upset at Indy, ending the Colts 13-0 unbeaten run. This offense is deadly, averaging 29 points, 135 yards rushing and 228 passing behind QB Drew Brees, RB La Dainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates and WR Eric Parker. Their run defense is terrific at No. 1 in the NFL! The Chargers know that not only do they have to win their remaining games, Saturday at Kansas City and Dec. 31 at home against Denver, and get a loss by Pittsburgh or Jacksonville. Kansas City (8-6) is just as desperate after consecutive losses to Dallas and the NY Giants. Those developments put the Chiefs one game behind the Steelers and Chargers for the final wild-card spot and two games behind. The Chiefs must win their final two home games with San Diego and Cincinnati but they have an advantage is possible doing that since both games are at one of the toughest venues in the NFL in Arrowhead stadium. Kansas City has won 13 of the last 16 with the Chargers in Arrowhead and has just two point spread failures in the last ten meetings on this field. There is also the matter of triple revenge for the Chiefs, including a 28-20 loss on the beach this season. The games sets perfectly for KC as they enter off back-to-back losses, catching the Chargers off last week's monumental win over the Colts.

    Very tough game to call considering the implications for both squads. The weather forecast calls for occasional light rain and some snow showers mixing in by afternoon with the winds out of the Northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Given that forecast, certainly does not look like good weather for either team to establish any kind of dominate passing attack. A wet field is also not good for the cutting by an already banged-up LaDainian Tomlinson of San Diego and the Chargers had to go from Indianapolis, all the way back home to San Diego, then all the way back to Kansas City within a week that is one day shorter than normal. So there wasn't much time to formulate any new wrinkles in the offensive game plan. "Big Game" Marty Schottenheimer plays not to lose in these situations anyway and he still does not seem to trust his QB as far as he can throw the guy. It's basically a playoff game, so Marty is looking at a lot of long fields to put the Chiefs offense into a hole. Play this game UNDER.

    Forecast: SD Chargers 17. KC Chiefs 21
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON CHARGERS/CHIEFS UNDER 49.5

    DETROIT (4 - 10) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 11)
    Week 16 Saturday, 12/24/2005 1:00 PM
    San Antonio, TX
    vs

    Analysis

    This may be the most meaningless game on the board with two have-not teams, playing out the string. Detroit has lost seven of eight after Sunday's 41-17 loss to Cincinnati. The reeling Lions (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS) lost their fifth in a row, as the tone was set on the opening kickoff when Detroit's R.W. McQuarters fumbled. By the end of the first quarter, the Bengals led 17-0. Jeff Garcia was 13-of-21 for 138 yards with one TD and three interceptions, including one to O'Neal, who broke a team record with 10 interceptions. Garcia was replaced by Joey Harrington early in the fourth quarter, a move that drew cheers, and Harrington finished 6-of-7 for 77 yards and a TD. Detroit is 1-5 SU on the road where they average 11 ppg. The Saints fared no better when they lost to Carolina 27-10. Aaron Brooks was replaced by seldom-used Todd Bouman, who threw four interceptions and lost a fumble. He finished 17-for-34 for 193 yards. The Saints (3-11 SU, 5-7 ATS), who'll play their final home game in San Antonio, finished 0-4 in LSU's Tiger Stadium.

    Although neither team has much to play for in this contest, look for New Orleans to give a better effort considering this will be a true “home” game since its played in San Antonio. I also would not be surprised if the Lions also play better this week now that they're away from Ford Field and the revolting mass of home fans. Defensively, Detroit has given up 5 yards per rushing attempt the last two weeks. This weakness should be exploited by the Saints, who did average 4.9 per rush versus the stout front of Carolina last week. Running back Aaron Stecker averaged 6.6 per carry last week and could bust some long runs here. Detroit's defense does hold the edge allowing 21 ppg to 25 ppg for New Orleans, which is a total of 46 ppg. Still cannot figure out the low number posted on this so lets go OVER the posted total as the Saints and Lions finally roar and score enough to cover the total number set too low.

    Forecast: DET Lions 21, NO Saints 28
    PLAY 1* UNIT ON LIONS/SAINTS OVER 38.5

    PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) at CLEVELAND (5 - 9)
    Week 16 Saturday, 12/24/2005 1:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    A couple of strong defensive teams meet in the frigid Cleveland air. The Steelers (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) have bounced back into the playoff race with two big wins, the latest an 18-3 victory at Minnesota. The weekend was a big one for the Steelers' playoff hopes, coming closer to a wild-card berth. Ben Roethlisberger played again with a protective device on his injured right thumb beneath a glove and said he came through none the worse for it for the second consecutive game. "Every game we're playing like a playoff game," Roethlisberger said. Pittsburgh has the No. 6 overall defense in the NFL. Cleveland is also a strong defensive team, 13th over in total defense. They are also playing hard for first-year coach Romeo Crennel, and look no further than a meaningless game Sunday where the Browns (5-9) flew out to the West Coast and beat the Raiders, 9-7. Phil Dawson's 37-yard field goal into the dreaded Black Hole of McAfee Coliseum as time expired ended the Browns' three-game losing streak and handed Charlie Frye his first NFL victory as a starting quarterback. The Steelers won the first meeting 34-21 with 159 rush yards, 223 passing.

    Although Cleveland has nothing to play for other then pride, HC Romeo Crennel certainly knows of the implications in this game. When asked about this weeks match-up Crennel stated “I’m down here in the coaches room with the assistants, puttin’ together a game plan to beat the Steelers because it’s my first year on the job and I can buy myself a ton of goodwill in this town if we knock the Dawg Pound’s most despised rival outta the playoffs on the day before Christmas!” And Pittsburgh head coach Bill Cowher and staff know that they will be in for a big fight this week. Cowher said on Monday that "there is no question" the Browns will approach this game as their Super Bowl. And with the Browns 7-0 ATS as division dogs of 7 or more points and 5-1 ATS in 2nd last games of the season lookout for this live dog. The weather forecast for Saturday in Cleveland says rain and temps in the high 30s. A wet field doesn’t help Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker’s chances to cut sharply and make people miss. The Browns will like their chances if the Steelers want to send Jerome Bettis straight ahead at them for three yards a pop all afternoon. The home team has a rookie QB going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The visitor has a second-year QB with a bad thumb who plays for the team that has logged more running plays than any other in the NFL. All of this points to a hard fought game that will probably go under the total. But with the spread at a full TD we have no other choice but to side with the barking home dog.

    Forecast: PIT Steelers 17, CLE Browns 14
    PLAY 1* UNIT ON CLEVELAND +7

  • #2
    SUNDAY 11/25/05

    CHICAGO (10 - 4) at GREEN BAY (3 - 11)
    Week 16 Sunday, 12/25/2005 5:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis


    It doesn't get any better than the oldest rivalry in football. This game takes on a role reversal from past years, as the Packers will try to spoil the Bears playoff seeding and try to cost the Bears the NFC North Division title. Don’t expect anything short of a very physical battle in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The Bears (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) defense and 7 degree wind chill factor resulted in a 16-3 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night at frigid Soldier Field. QB Rex Grossman replaced the struggling Kyle Orton in the third quarter and led a scoring drive to set up the win. Grossman was 9-of-16 for 93 yards with an interception. It was plenty, though, with Chicago's staunch defense shutting down Michael Vick and the Falcons as the Bears rebounded from a 21-9 loss in Pittsburgh. For Chicago, Jones ran for 91 yards and a touchdown. LB Brian Urlacher had 11 solo tackles, 12 in all, and batted a pass. According to the most recent reports out of the Bear camp, Rex Grossman will start at quarterback for this game. In a farewell to prime time, the Packers are coming off a humiliating 48-3 rout by Baltimore on MNF. It was the low point of an awful season for the Packers (3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS), who absorbed their most lopsided loss since a 61-7 defeat at Chicago in 1980. QB Bret Favre was 14-of-29 for 144 yards and two interceptions before being replaced by Aaron Rodgers late in the third quarter. Favre's two interceptions gave him a career-high 24 for the season. Packers running back Samkon Gado left the game with a knee injury and did not return. Green Bay is 8th in the NFL in total defense, the Bears are No. 1.

    Now that everybody in the world is on the Favre must go bandwagon we will jump right onto the bandwagon going in the opposite direction as nothing will fire up a competitor more than telling him he's lost it. Remember just a few weeks ago, the Packers completely shut down the Bears holding them to just ten first downs, 188 total yards and NO offensive TDs, despite loosing the game 19-7. Now Green Bay will be playing at home, where they have a decisive home field advantage, will be playing with revenge and their opponent is a bitter rival. The spread of +7 for the Packers should defiantly come into to play here as no team other then the Steelers has gone into Green Bay this season and emerged with more than a three-point win. The Packer’s also check in with a 10-2 ATS record in this series while the Bears are a poor 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games played in the months of December. Green Bay would like nothing more than to knock off the division champs, and look we are getting a full touchdown! I’m drooling with the Christmas gift from the linemaker!!

    Forecast: CHI Bears 7, GB Packers 17
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON GREEN BAY +7
    OPINION SELECTION ON GREEN BAY +260

    MINNESOTA (8 - 6) at BALTIMORE (5 - 9)
    Week 16 Sunday, 12/25/2005 8:30 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    The Vikings have been using smoke and mirrors to post six victories their past seven games, but last week they were exposed by a physical Steelers defense at home. Now they take to the road to play another intimidating, defense. The Vikings (8-6 SU/ATS) saw their wild-card hopes diminish, and play at Baltimore here and finish with a home game against division-leading Chicago. Five of their six wins during the winning streak came against teams with a combined record of 20-35. QB Brad Johnson went 16-for-30 for 143 yards, including a woeful 2-for-9, 9-yard output after halftime. Minnesota managed 25 total yards in the final two quarters. Minnesota is 3-4 SU/ATS on the road. Meanwhile, it has been a highly disappointing season for the Ravens. Baltimore (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) plays its second straight home game after dominating Green Bay 48-3 on Monday night. QB Kyle Boller (19-of-27 for 253 yards) put on a dazzling performance by throwing three touchdown passes and the Baltimore defense dominated the Packers throughout. The Ravens are 6th in the total 'D'. RB Jamal Lewis ran for 105 yards and a touchdown for the Ravens, who are 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS at home and winless on the road.

    This game amounts to a situational nightmare for the Vikings. This game will be one of only two games played on Christmas day, and this will be Baltimore’s “Super Bowl” since it’s also Baltimore’s home finale. To make matters worse for the Vikings (a dome team) they will have to play their only road game in a four week span, at night, it frigid temperatures on an off surface. In their franchise history, the Vikings check in at 13-24 ATS on grass and are a perfect 0-7 ATS on grass against a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The Ravens are also 5-0 ATS since week 16, 1999 at home after a straight up win at home as a favorite, covering by an amazing 16.9 ppg! Adding to the Vikings situational nightmare is the fact that this is a classic sandwich game as they will have to face division leader Chicago next week. Although Baltimore also has a divisional game up next week, they are 8-0-1 ATS at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent, so they don’t suffer from the same look-ahead syndrome as the Vikings. Lets also consider Baltimore's sterling 19-6 SU and 18-7 ATS record at home in the last four games of the year over the past six years and Minnesota plays right into our hands with a 3-20 ATS record in road finales. WOW!

    Forecast: BAL Ravens 17, MIN Vikings 16
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE -3

    Comment


    • #3
      bump

      Comment


      • #4
        Good Luck!!! Merry Christmas

        Comment


        • #5
          Nice write-up Sports. Do you mean maybe Ravens 27 Vikings 16? Balt is favored by 3................

          Comment


          • #6
            gl this weekend!

            Comment


            • #7
              gl guru
              Ron Paul for president

              Comment


              • #8
                Guru

                You picked Balt -3 , yet your predicted score is 17 -16 ?????

                Comment


                • #9
                  :christmas :christmas :christmas :christmas

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Good Luck Guru, I love the write-ups to. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!!!
                    Every Man Dies, But Not Every Man Lives!!!

                    Record as of 1-30-06

                    NBA
                    7-9-1 -2.5*
                    CBB
                    8-6 =2*

                    Each * = 25.00
                    I am small time compared to most Gamblers!!
                    But I play within my Limits!!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Goodluck today Guru!!!!!!!!!
                      Hope you and yours have a merry Christmas!!!!!!!!
                      "Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Goodluck Guru Have A Great Holiday Season And Stay Safe!!!!
                        PLAY EVERY DOG EVERY NIGHT FOR THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT IN BASES....YOUR UNITS WILL GROW...[/B]

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sorry for the error boys, the Baltimore score should read 27.

                          SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
                          2* CAROLINA –4.5
                          2* CHARGERS/CHIEFS UNDER 49.5
                          2* CLEVELAND +7 UPGRADED
                          1* LIONS/SAINTS OVER 38.5
                          1* WASHINGTON ADDED
                          1* OAKLAND +14 ADDED
                          1* ARIZONA -2 ADDED

                          SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
                          2* GREEN BAY +7
                          2* BALTIMORE -3
                          Opinions: GREEN BAY +260

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Merry Christmas Guru....:christmas

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