Final Fade Results + Bowl Picks

[Blackbeard]

Record: 62-41-3 (60.2%)
CFB: 39-17-1 (69.6%)
NFL: 23-24-2 (49%)
Bowl Opinions: 1-0
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Firstly let me thank the guys I missed from yesterday.

Nextly, I just spent several mind numbing hours totaling up the fade results from the past CFB season to better prepare for the upcoming bowls, and here are the results:


>Any Fade(no qualifiers, example 16-13): 132-109 (54%)
>Fades with 5 or more differential (example 20-13): 97-74 (56.7%)
>Fades with 5 or more and 40 + picks(example 27-20): 67-36(65%)

I was able to hit the higher 69% range by applying the sagarin ratings and other capping methods, but as you can see just using the numbers willy nilly still gave a decent result. hope this helps.

Unfortunately for bowl season, things are slightly different, since all the sources pick each game, there are always 40+ picks, so I'm not sure how the results will match up to the regular season, but based on the first 2 games, both dogs 2nite are the OPINION fades, until I see how this works out(new totals include NYPost):



So Miss 28
Ark 14
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Toledo 19 Fade pick= Toledo -3(W)
Utep 24
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Cal 38
BYU 11 Fade pick= BYU +7.5
2 pushes
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Navy 35
CSU 16 Fade pick= CSU +3

Good Luck, BB

[Kaptain]

Lots of work there Beard---I appreciate the effort and thanks for posting it---have a good holiday my man..kapt

[Eagle]

good luck tonight BB thanks for the info. Eagle

[Hitman]

GL Blackbeard. Thanks for the info!

[littlewager]

I'll play something small on both and will begin developing an opinion.

Thanks much,
Best of luck
Littlewager

[Meg30]

Thank you and good luck!!!

[Spark]

Good Luck Buddy ... thanks

[pake]

Like the two dogs tonight. Thanks for the
info. and the hard work !!

Let's get the cover!

[Blackbeard]

Thanks Guys/Gals!!!!!!

Just a note the 2 pushes in byu/cal were base on the opening line of 7, line is at 8 now

[Blackbeard]

Here are the next 2 picks, with CSU pending and not looking good, will update tomorrow, have not decided yet if they will be regular plays or opinions

Record: 62-41-3 (60.2%)
CFB: 39-17-1 (69.6%)
NFL: 23-24-2 (49%)
Bowl Opinions: 2-0
---------------------

So Miss 28
Ark 14
-----------
Toledo 19 Fade pick= Toledo -3(W)
Utep 24
-----------
Cal 38
BYU 11 Fade pick= BYU +7.5(W)
2 pushes
-----------
Navy 35
CSU 16 Fade pick= CSU +3
-----------
Kansas 31
Houston 19 Fade Pick= Houston +3
-----------
Nevada 29
CFLA 21 Fade Pick= CFLA +3(buy 1/2)

[wrightmove]

gl man

[Eagle]

Thanks for the info and good luck. Eagle

[***THA FIX***]

Good Luck!!!

[joemoff]

Thanks for the work.

[Blackbeard]

THANKS GUYS!!!!!HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!!!

Updated and added a few more, Clemson game may have to be tossed due to late/varying lines, will post final pick for 2nite later


Record: 62-41-3 (60.2%)
CFB: 39-17-1 (69.6%)
NFL: 23-24-2 (49%)
Bowl Opinions: 2-1
---------------------

So Miss 28
Ark 14
-----------
Toledo 19 Fade pick= Toledo -3(W)
Utep 24
-----------
Cal 38
BYU 11 Fade pick= BYU +7.5(W)
2 pushes
-----------
Navy 35
CSU 16 Fade pick= CSU +3(L)
-----------
Kansas 31
Houston 19 Fade Pick= Houston +3
-----------
Nevada 29
CFLA 21 Fade Pick= CFLA +3(buy 1/2)
-----------
Memphis 27
Akron 23
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Colorado 8
Clemson 42
-----------
ASU 36
Rutgers 14