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BOOOM EASY WIN ON THE TOP PLAY WITH TOLEDO ABSOLUTELY DOMINATING THE GAME FROM START TO FINISH. NOW 2-0 ON SIDES BUT ITS EARLY IN THE BOWL SEASON. LET HOPE THE SUCESS CONTINUES. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
BOWL RECORD:
2* 1 WIN; 0 LOSSES
1* 0 WIN; 0 LOSSES
Opinions: 1 WIN; 1 LOSS
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
1* COLORADO STATE +3
1* BYU/CALIFORNIA UNDER 61.5
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NAVY (7 - 4) vs. COLORADO ST (6 - 5)
Week 15 Thursday, 12/22/2005 10:30 PM
Poinsetta Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
vs 
History
Colorado State will make its ninth bowl appearance in the past 12 seasons, and 11th in school history, when coach Sonny Lubick?s Rams face the Navy Midshipmen in the first-ever San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Colorado State has been bowl eligible 11 times in Sonny Lubicks 13 seasons as head coach. Colorado State returns to a familiar bowl site in San Diego for the game. Three times in the 1990s, 1994, 1995, and 1997, the Rams played in the Holiday Bowl. Colorado State defeated Missouri, 35-24 in 1997, the teams most recent trip to San Diego for a bowl game. Colorado State has made more bowl appearances (nine) since 1994 than any other current MWC member institution. Colorado State is a 4-6 SU in bowl games and since the Mountain West was formed in 1999, the Rams hold a 2-3 record in bowl games. Colorado State has lost its last two bowl games, falling to Boston College in the 2003 San Francisco Bowl (35-21) and TCU in the 2002 Liberty Bowl (17-3). Meanwhile, their opponent, Navy will be making their 12th bowl game appearance overall and a school-record third-straight post season appearance. Last year, quarterback Aaron Polanco accounted for four touchdowns and 237 yards of total offense as Navy defeated New Mexico, 34-19, in the Emerald Bowl. Navy is 5-5-1 all-time in bowl games and owns a 1-0 mark in bowl games played in San Diego, as the Midshipmen upset BYU, 23-16, in the first Holiday Bowl on Dec. 22, 1978.
Navy (7-4)
Head Coach: Paul Johnson
Career Record: 89-31 (9th year)
Record at Navy: 27-21 (2nd year)
Last Bowl: 2004 Emerald Bowl (Navy 34, New Mexico 19)
Colorado State (6-5, 4-4 in Mountain West Conference)
Head Coach: Sonny Lubick
Career Record: 122-75 (17th year)
Record at UN: 101-56 (13th year)
Last Bowl: 2003 San Francisco Bowl (Colorado State 21, Boston College 35)
Navy Leaders:
Passing: Lamar Owens, 58-112, 1,155 yards, 4 TDs
Rushing: Lamar Owens, 830 yards, 11 TDs
Receiving: Jason Tomlinson, 24 rec., 427 yards, 1 TD
Colorado State Leaders:
Passing: Justin Holland, 209-336, 2,804 yards, 20 TDs
Rushing: Kyle Bell, 1,166 yards, 9 TDs
Receiving: David Anderson, 77 rec., 71,095 yards, 8 TDs
NAVY:
Navy comes into this contest with the nations #1 rushing offense, averaging an amazing 305.18 yards per game. Indeed, the Midshipmen have never finished lower than third in the country in rushing during Paul Johnson's tenure at the Academy. Last year, the Mids finished third in the nation, averaging 289.50 yards per contest, while in 2003 the Mids led the nation in rushing, averaging a school-record 323.2 yards per game. In 2002, Johnson's first year at Navy, the Mids finished third in the nation in rushing, averaging 270.8 yards per contest. A victory over Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl would give Navy 18 wins over a two-year period (Navy went 10-2 last year), tying the school record for wins over a two-year span. Navy won 18 games in 1905-06, 1906-07, 1907-08. Navy's 25 wins over the last three years are the most since 1906-08 when the Mids won 26. Navy will also be making the second longest trip, going 2,738 miles from Annapolis, Md. to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl.
COLORADO STATE:
CSU insiders are reporting that CSU coaches are not thrilled about the location of this game as San Diego has a very strong Navel following and early ticket sale are indicating that the Midshipmen will have nearly 20,000 fans supporting the Navy community. Colorado State QB Justin Holland brings to this contest a 143.3 QB rating ranking him #22 nationally, just behind Darrell Hackney of UAB and Jordan Palmer of UTEP.
GAME NOTES: This game will mark the first ever meeting between Navy and Colorado State but the did share one common opponent this season, as each of them defeated Air Force during the 2005 season. CSU won 41-23 Sept. 29 in Fort Collins, while Navy downed the Falcons, 27-24 in Annapolis on Oct. 8.
TRENDS
NAVY:
Navy is 7-3-1 ATS this season and 22-9-1 ATS since 2003.
Navy is 6-0 ATS ATS in their last eight as favorites of less than eight points.
Navy is 7-1 ATS against Mountain West Opponents.
Navy is 4-1 ATS in Bowl games since 1981.
Navy is 13-4 ATS in games played in the month of December
COLORADO STATE:
Colorado State is 0-3 ATS last three games in 2005.
Colorado State HC Sonny Lubick is 33-12-2 ATS as a dog of less then 14 points and 28-7-1 ATS if their opponent won fewer then 8 games last year.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Navy is the nation's number one rushing team. Teams who rush for 200 or more yards in bowl games against an .800 or worse opponent are 61-17 ATS.
Analysis
The Navy Midshipmen (7-4) travel to San Diego, Calif. to take on the Colorado State Rams (6-5) in the inaugural San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, Thursday, Dec. 22, at Qualcomm Stadium (70, 561). The Poinsettia Bowl will kick off at 7:30 p.m. (10:30 EST) and will be nationally televised by ESPN2. Navy comes into this contest with the nations #1 rushing offense, averaging an amazing 305.18 yards per game and a school-record 5.6 yards per rush this year. Navy has absolutely dominated every opponent they have faced this year over the ground amassing 200 rushing yards in every game out rushing all opponents including bowl-bound Rutgers & Notre Dame. The Navy attack is lead my QB Lamar Owns who has amassed 1,985 yards of total offense (830 rushing and 1,155 passing) on just 307 plays this year. His 6.5 yards per play ranks him fourth in school history for average yards per play for a season and his 5.94 average yards per play for a career (2,080 yards in 350 plays) also ranks first in Navy?s record books. Although Navy finished dead last in the nation in passing offense this season, when they did decide to pass QB Owens averaged a school record 10.3 yards per pass attempt this season, throwing for 1,155 yards on just 112 attempts, and averaging a school record 19.9 yards per pass completion on 58 completions. Owens needs just 127 yards of total offense against Colorado State to pass Aaron Polanco for fifth on the Navy list for total offense in a season.
Meanwhile, their opponent, the Rams of Colorado State are making their ninth bowl appearance in the past 12 seasons and the 11th in school history. The Rams earned their sixth bowl trip in the last seven years with a 6-5 record and a 5-3 mark in the Mountain West Conference. The Rams are averaging 26.5 points per game, 119.9 rushing yards per contest, 273.2 passing yards per game and 393.1 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Justin Holland has completed 209 of his 336 pass attempts (62 percent) for 2,804 yards and 20 touchdowns. Holland's favorite target is David Anderson, who caught 77 passes for 1,095 yards and eight touchdowns. Kyle Bell has had an outstanding year running the football, rushing for 1,166 yards and nine touchdowns on 254 carries. Defensively, the Rams are giving up 28.9 points per game, 200.6 yards per game on the ground, 211.6 yards per game through the air and 412.3 yards of total offense per contest. Travis Garcia leads the defense with 82 tackles, five tackles for a loss and three sacks. Courtney Jones and Jesse Nading have recorded 10 tackles for a loss apiece, while Nading has four sacks.
It should be mentioned that Navy's offensive statistic have come again inferior competition. Did you know that Navy did not beat a team with a winning record this season? In fact, three of Navy's victories came against Duke, Kent State and Rice (all one-win teams), along with Temple (0-11). A victory against 2-9 Tulane and its best victories against a pair of 4-7 teams in Air Force and Army were the best showings Navy had this season against its competition. Prior to fading a bit down the stretch, Colorado State had good victories against Nevada, Air Force, Utah, Wyoming and a road victory at New Mexico. In total, Navy went 0-2 vs. 2005 bowl teams, falling to Rutgers (21-31) and Notre Dame (21-42). Colorado State meanwhile went 2-4 against teams playing in bowl games this season. The Rams defeated Nevada (42-21) and Utah (21-17) and lost to Colorado (28-31), Minnesota (24-56), BYU (14-24) and TCU (6-33).
Well there is absolutely no question as to the game plan for Navy in this match-up. RUN...RUN...and RUN! Says one CSU defender, referring to Navy's 6.4 to 1 Run/Pass ratio, "Even if you shut them down with three-and-outs four drives in a row, they're still going to come out and run the option on the fifth drive." In last years Bowl match-up Navy had little trouble moving the ball on the ground against a statistically much better stopping defense New Mexico possessed. This time Navy will have the luxury of going against an awful Colorado State rush defense (104th nationally), one that allowed 2,207 yards at an alarming 4.8 per carry this season. However, CSU?s passing attack will present a difficult challenge for Navy's pass defense which allowed more than 61 percent completions and 204 passing yards per game versus a weak schedule. Senior wide receiver David Anderson is unknown nationally, but he was a top performer in the Mountain West Conference again, with 77 catches and more than 1,000 yards receiving. State has played the much tougher schedule, but is 58 points behind the line in its last 3 games. And motivation, as always, rests with the military school.
Although Navy owned a staggering 3.1 yards per rush advantage over Colorado State, take a look at who they played! Seven of Navy wins came against teams who were a combined 5-64 SU vs lined teams. Colorado State meanwhile, has proven they can play with the big boys and they should be primed and ready for this game. Although this game will in effect be a “home” type atmosphere for the Navel Academy, Colorado State is very familiar with this venue from their conference play, so there is no distinct situational advantage. In addition, since Colorado also played Air Force every year, this will not be the first time they will have to prepared or come across the option attack. Look for Colorado State to add continuous pressure on Navy’s quarterback Owens throughout the day. Once they contain him rushing, he'll have a hard time making plays through the air while playing from behind. Colorado State has a versatile and prolific offense and should certainly get its share of points in this game. Let take the points
Forecast: Navy 21, Colorado State 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON COLORADO STATE +3
BYU (6 - 5) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 4)
Week 15 Thursday, 12/22/2005 8:00 PM
Las Vegas Bowl - Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
vs 
History
Holding a 7-15-1 all-time record in bowl games, BYU will be making its first postseason appearance since the 2001 Liberty Bowl. While this will be their first-ever trip to the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, the Cougars are no strangers to Sam Boyd Stadium. After defeating UNLV 55-14 on November 5, they boast a 7-1 record in Las Vegas, which includes a 28-25 overtime victory over Wyoming in the 1996 Western Athletic Conference Championship and a 30-13 loss to Air Force in the 1998 WAC title clash. Earning its 16th bowl trip overall, Cal, which spent time ranked in the nation's top 10 this fall, will be making its third consecutive post season appearance for the first time since 1948-50. The Cougars did not play any Pac-10 teams and California did not play any MWC teams in 2005. BYU is 25-52-1 all-time against current Pac-10 teams including 2-0 against California. The first meeting between the Cougars and the Golden Bears was in 1999, a game BYU won 38-28 in Provo. The second meeting was in 2001 in California and the Cougars won 44-16. The Cougars are 1-1 against Pac-10 teams in bowl games, including a 38-36 win over Washington State in the 1981 Holiday Bowl and a 31-10 loss to UCLA in the 1986 Freedom Bowl. Overall, Pac-10 Conference teams have played in the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl five times and hold a 3-2 record. Schools now in the MWC have combined to play in nine such games and hold a 5-4 record, including a 4-2 mark since splitting from the WAC and forming the new league in 1999. BYU will try to make it two in a row for its league after Wyoming won last season's affair 24-21 over UCLA.
BYU (6-5, 5-1 Mountain West Conference)
Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall
Career Record: 6-5 (1st year)
Record at UCF: 6-5 (1st year)
Last Bowl: 2001 Liberty Bowl (Louisville 28, BYU 10)
California (7-4, 4-4 Pacific-10)
Head Coach: Jeff Tedford
Career Record: 32-17 (4th year)
Record at UN: 32-17 (4th year)
Last Bowl: 2004 Holiday Bowl (Texas Tech 45, California 31)
BYU Leaders:
Passing: John Beck, 296-460, 3,357 yards, 24 TDs
Rushing: Curtis Brown, 1,095 yards, 14 TDs
Receiving: Jonny Harline, 56 rec., 780 yards, 4 Tds
California Leaders:
Passing: Joe Ayoob, 125-254, 1,707 yards, 15 TDs
Rushing: Marshawn Lynch, 1,052 yards, 7 TDs
Receiving: DeSean Jackson, 32 rec., 471 yards, 5 Tds
BYU:
BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall will be coaching his first game against Cal; however, it will actually be the fifth time Mendenhall has faced the Golden Bears. As a graduate assistant coach at Oregon State in 1989, Mendenhall and the Beavers recorded a 25-14 win over Cal. In 1995 and 1996, Mendenhall served as a full-time assistant coach at Oregon State. Cal won both the 1995 and '96 games, including a 48-42, triple-overtime game in 1996. In 1997, as the secondary coach at Louisiana Tech, Mendenhall and the Bulldogs defeated Cal, 41-34. BYU Athletics Director Tom Holmoe served as the head football coach at Cal for five seasons.
CALIFORNIA:
The 2005 Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl will mark the fifth time California Head Coach Jeff Tedford has faced the Cougars. As an assistant coach at Fresno State from 1992-1997, Tedford coached against BYU four different times. During his tenure at Fresno State, the Bulldogs posted a 1-3 record against BYU. Stud RB Marshawn Lynch leads the Golden Bears with 1,052 yards rushing and seven touchdowns while Justin Forsett is close behind with 962 yards and six touchdowns. Forsett averages 7.8 yards per carry while Lynch averages 6.1 yards per carry. Joe Ayoob leads California with 1,707 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes. DeSean Jackson is the team's leading receiver with 471 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, the Golden Bears have been solid all year, limiting their opponents to 20.5 points per game and 351.6 yards of total offense. California has also recorded an amazing 80 tackles for loss, including 31 sacks on the year.
GAME NOTES: Like Toledo in the GMAC Bowl, California is another team that has some bad post-season memories to erase - they never did figure out the Texas Tech passing play book in losing to the Red Raiders 45-31 in the Holiday Bowl LY. Now they get a unique opportunity for redemption. It just so happens that the new Brigham Young offensive coordinator this season is Robert Anae, who was one of the offensive assistants with Texas Tech before coming over. Anae has slowly been putting in some of those very same tactics that make Tech so successful, and it was a reason why the Cougars were able to turn things around this season.
TRENDS
BYU:
BYU is 3-10 SU last 13 bowl games.
BYU is 1-11 ATS against a Pac Ten foe when coming off a league game.
BYU is 6-11-1 ATS as Bowlers since 1981.
BYU is 5-2 ATS last 7 this year.
CALIFORNIA:
California is 0-3 ATS against teams playing in a Bowl this season.
California is also 1-4 SU & ATS in their last five games against a team from the mountain West Conference.
California is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in 2005 and 3-7 ATS on the season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Mountain West Conference teams are 8-3 SU & ATS as Bowlers vs an opponent of an ATS win.
This has been a traditionally lower-scoring bowl with six of last seven Las Vegas Bowls having "totals" of 45 or fewer.
Analysis
BYU (6-5 overall, 5-3 Mountain West Conference) will travel to Las Vegas to take on California (7-4 overall, 4-4 Pacific-10) in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl. The game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium (36,800) and televised on ESPN at 5 p.m. (PST). The game will be BYU's ninth appearance in Sam Boyd Stadium, where the Cougars are 7-1. They are 6-0 in Vegas against UNLV and 1-1 in Western Athletic Championship games. BYU is coming off a 41-34 overtime loss to the University of Utah. The Cougars fell behind early and trailed 24-3 at the half but outscored the Utes 31-10 in the second half to force overtime. Utah scored on its first drive in overtime and BYU failed to convert. Meanwhile, their opponent, California enters the Las Vegas Bowl with a 7-4 record. After winning their first five games of the season, the Golden Bears have won two of their final six games. Following a heart-breaking overtime loss at Oregon on Nov. 5, and a hard-fought loss against top-ranked USC on Nov. 12, Cal finished the regular season with a decisive 27-3 win over Stanford. Steve Levy passed for 125 yards and one touchdown while Marshawn Lynch rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown. California limited the Cardinal to 327 yards of total offense and just 3.9 yards per play.
While this game will also mark the first-ever appearance for both teams at the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, both teams have been to a combined 38 bowl games. The Cougars will be making their 24th bowl appearance, while Cal will be playing in its 16th bowl game. BYU has posted a 7-15-1 bowl record, while the Golden Bears are 6-8-1 in post-season play. The Golden Bears have a 13-10 all-time record against current members of the Mountain West Conference, while the Cougars have a 27-52 record against teams from the Pac-10. Since beating Cal, 44-16, BYU has gone 0-4 against Pac-10 teams, including losses against Stanford and USC.
One can only believe that Cal is again disappointed in the fact that they are forced to play in a rather "un sexy" bowl game especially considering that they were at one point this season an AP top 10 team (last year Cal should have been playing in a BCS game but was snubbed). Amazingly that feet was accomplished even after they graduated 90% of last season's offense, which included QB Aaron Rogers and RB J.J. Arrington. However, a look inside Cal?s early successes shows that those wins were against the poorer teams in all of NCAA Division 1-A football (Washington, Illinois and New Mexico State). Indeed those three teams would combine for four wins all year and poor 11-23 ATS showing. When California had to play the better teams in their conference starting in October, their perfect 5-0 record quickly turned into 7-4, but BYU could hardly be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Oregon, USC, Oregon State and UCLA. The Cougar?s also struggles mightily against bowl-bound teams this season, posting a 1-4 SU and ATS record and yielding 35 PPG.
Fundamentally, BYU brings to this game the 8th ranked passing offense, 46th ranked rushing offense and the nations 13 ranked total offense. California counters with the nations 90th ranked passing offense, 10th ranked rushing offense and the nations 31st rank in total offense. On the year BYU averaged 33.45 points per contest, and Cal averaged 32.73. The problem for one of these teams is defense. BYUs defense this year can be summed up in one word...MISERABLE. BYU allowed close to five TDs per game, 5.9 yards per play on the ground, 12.4 yards per completion and 62.6% of all passes against them to be completed finishing the year as the 93rd ranked defense in the land. The Cougars were positively torched by strong passing games, most notably in their 49-23 loss at Notre Dame, when Brady Quinn enjoyed a record-setting afternoon against the Cougars secondary. In order to have a chance, BYU will have to improve on the yards they yield on the ground as Cal for much of the season was one of the top 3 teams in all of Division I football in running the ball. Although BYU's passing defense was actually worse then the rushing aspect, its hard to imagine Cal winning this game through the air especially considering that Former backup running back Steve Levy has now taken over the starting QB job after former started Joe Ayoob was benched following the Bears' 35-10 home loss.
On paper, BYU appears to have a fundamental match-up advantage when they have possession of the ball on offense. The explosive Cougars have ridden the arm of QB John Beck (3,357 PYs, 24 TDs, 64.3%), & legs of R Curtis Brown (1,095 RYs, 15 TDs) averaging 46.5 ppg in their final 4 outings. However, Cals secondary is very underrated. Indeed, the Bear secondary had more interceptions, 13, than TD passes allowed against them, 11. In addition, Cal also has had the advantage of playing in a competitive PAC-10 with many teams using a similar wide open passing attack. Situationally, BYU should enjoy whatever limited crowd support there is at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Cougars traditionally draw well when they travel to face UNLV, with a large local fan base, and the trip from Provo, Utah, is much easier to make than the trip from Berkeley, Calif.
The line open at Cal -6.5 and has since been bet up to -7.5. Betting indicators are showing that 71% of the bets being placed as of now are on the Golden Bears, so the contrarian side would be to take BYU. However, this game is really a capping nightmare because it is impossible to forecast which California team will show up in tonight’s game. The good one could show up, and this one would be over at halftime, or the poor Cal team could rare it ugly face and they we would have a BYU cover. Given the fact that I personally like Cal, but knowing that they are 0-8 ATS against winning non-conference teams when favored by more than three points, there is just no way I can back them in this spot. Rest assured, no way will I back BYU either so I will pass on this side.
Nevertheless this is the bowl season so we will find something to put our money on. A look at the match-up in this contest screams over the total. As stated above, BYU’s defense stinks! Meanwhile, Cal’s defense is also vulnerable, allowing 35 points per game against their only three opponents in bowls. Of course those of you that know how I bet know that since everything in the world is pointing of the over, I going to recommend a play on UNDER the posted total of 61.5. As stated above, the Bears have struggled at the quarterback position all season and will be again using their third-string QB in Steve Levy in this game. With Cal’s shaky situation at the QB position BYU’s HC Mendenhall should be able to focus on shutting down the run and dare the Cal passing game to beat them (which is not their strength). In addition, although BYU does possess a potent passing attack, Cal played in the PAC-10 Conference that features a plethora of teams who use a similar wide open passing attack, so don’t be surprised when CAL is more than ready to make stops here, especially since the Cougar weapons are not all that imposing. Go UNDER.
Forecast: BYU 21, Calfornia 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BYU/CALIFORNIA UNDER 61.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
BOWL RECORD:
2* 1 WIN; 0 LOSSES
1* 0 WIN; 0 LOSSES
Opinions: 1 WIN; 1 LOSS
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
1* COLORADO STATE +3
1* BYU/CALIFORNIA UNDER 61.5
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NAVY (7 - 4) vs. COLORADO ST (6 - 5)
Week 15 Thursday, 12/22/2005 10:30 PM
Poinsetta Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
vs History
Colorado State will make its ninth bowl appearance in the past 12 seasons, and 11th in school history, when coach Sonny Lubick?s Rams face the Navy Midshipmen in the first-ever San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Colorado State has been bowl eligible 11 times in Sonny Lubicks 13 seasons as head coach. Colorado State returns to a familiar bowl site in San Diego for the game. Three times in the 1990s, 1994, 1995, and 1997, the Rams played in the Holiday Bowl. Colorado State defeated Missouri, 35-24 in 1997, the teams most recent trip to San Diego for a bowl game. Colorado State has made more bowl appearances (nine) since 1994 than any other current MWC member institution. Colorado State is a 4-6 SU in bowl games and since the Mountain West was formed in 1999, the Rams hold a 2-3 record in bowl games. Colorado State has lost its last two bowl games, falling to Boston College in the 2003 San Francisco Bowl (35-21) and TCU in the 2002 Liberty Bowl (17-3). Meanwhile, their opponent, Navy will be making their 12th bowl game appearance overall and a school-record third-straight post season appearance. Last year, quarterback Aaron Polanco accounted for four touchdowns and 237 yards of total offense as Navy defeated New Mexico, 34-19, in the Emerald Bowl. Navy is 5-5-1 all-time in bowl games and owns a 1-0 mark in bowl games played in San Diego, as the Midshipmen upset BYU, 23-16, in the first Holiday Bowl on Dec. 22, 1978.
Navy (7-4)
Head Coach: Paul Johnson
Career Record: 89-31 (9th year)
Record at Navy: 27-21 (2nd year)
Last Bowl: 2004 Emerald Bowl (Navy 34, New Mexico 19)
Colorado State (6-5, 4-4 in Mountain West Conference)
Head Coach: Sonny Lubick
Career Record: 122-75 (17th year)
Record at UN: 101-56 (13th year)
Last Bowl: 2003 San Francisco Bowl (Colorado State 21, Boston College 35)
Navy Leaders:
Passing: Lamar Owens, 58-112, 1,155 yards, 4 TDs
Rushing: Lamar Owens, 830 yards, 11 TDs
Receiving: Jason Tomlinson, 24 rec., 427 yards, 1 TD
Colorado State Leaders:
Passing: Justin Holland, 209-336, 2,804 yards, 20 TDs
Rushing: Kyle Bell, 1,166 yards, 9 TDs
Receiving: David Anderson, 77 rec., 71,095 yards, 8 TDs
NAVY:
Navy comes into this contest with the nations #1 rushing offense, averaging an amazing 305.18 yards per game. Indeed, the Midshipmen have never finished lower than third in the country in rushing during Paul Johnson's tenure at the Academy. Last year, the Mids finished third in the nation, averaging 289.50 yards per contest, while in 2003 the Mids led the nation in rushing, averaging a school-record 323.2 yards per game. In 2002, Johnson's first year at Navy, the Mids finished third in the nation in rushing, averaging 270.8 yards per contest. A victory over Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl would give Navy 18 wins over a two-year period (Navy went 10-2 last year), tying the school record for wins over a two-year span. Navy won 18 games in 1905-06, 1906-07, 1907-08. Navy's 25 wins over the last three years are the most since 1906-08 when the Mids won 26. Navy will also be making the second longest trip, going 2,738 miles from Annapolis, Md. to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl.
COLORADO STATE:
CSU insiders are reporting that CSU coaches are not thrilled about the location of this game as San Diego has a very strong Navel following and early ticket sale are indicating that the Midshipmen will have nearly 20,000 fans supporting the Navy community. Colorado State QB Justin Holland brings to this contest a 143.3 QB rating ranking him #22 nationally, just behind Darrell Hackney of UAB and Jordan Palmer of UTEP.
GAME NOTES: This game will mark the first ever meeting between Navy and Colorado State but the did share one common opponent this season, as each of them defeated Air Force during the 2005 season. CSU won 41-23 Sept. 29 in Fort Collins, while Navy downed the Falcons, 27-24 in Annapolis on Oct. 8.
TRENDS
NAVY:
Navy is 7-3-1 ATS this season and 22-9-1 ATS since 2003.
Navy is 6-0 ATS ATS in their last eight as favorites of less than eight points.
Navy is 7-1 ATS against Mountain West Opponents.
Navy is 4-1 ATS in Bowl games since 1981.
Navy is 13-4 ATS in games played in the month of December
COLORADO STATE:
Colorado State is 0-3 ATS last three games in 2005.
Colorado State HC Sonny Lubick is 33-12-2 ATS as a dog of less then 14 points and 28-7-1 ATS if their opponent won fewer then 8 games last year.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Navy is the nation's number one rushing team. Teams who rush for 200 or more yards in bowl games against an .800 or worse opponent are 61-17 ATS.
Analysis
The Navy Midshipmen (7-4) travel to San Diego, Calif. to take on the Colorado State Rams (6-5) in the inaugural San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, Thursday, Dec. 22, at Qualcomm Stadium (70, 561). The Poinsettia Bowl will kick off at 7:30 p.m. (10:30 EST) and will be nationally televised by ESPN2. Navy comes into this contest with the nations #1 rushing offense, averaging an amazing 305.18 yards per game and a school-record 5.6 yards per rush this year. Navy has absolutely dominated every opponent they have faced this year over the ground amassing 200 rushing yards in every game out rushing all opponents including bowl-bound Rutgers & Notre Dame. The Navy attack is lead my QB Lamar Owns who has amassed 1,985 yards of total offense (830 rushing and 1,155 passing) on just 307 plays this year. His 6.5 yards per play ranks him fourth in school history for average yards per play for a season and his 5.94 average yards per play for a career (2,080 yards in 350 plays) also ranks first in Navy?s record books. Although Navy finished dead last in the nation in passing offense this season, when they did decide to pass QB Owens averaged a school record 10.3 yards per pass attempt this season, throwing for 1,155 yards on just 112 attempts, and averaging a school record 19.9 yards per pass completion on 58 completions. Owens needs just 127 yards of total offense against Colorado State to pass Aaron Polanco for fifth on the Navy list for total offense in a season.
Meanwhile, their opponent, the Rams of Colorado State are making their ninth bowl appearance in the past 12 seasons and the 11th in school history. The Rams earned their sixth bowl trip in the last seven years with a 6-5 record and a 5-3 mark in the Mountain West Conference. The Rams are averaging 26.5 points per game, 119.9 rushing yards per contest, 273.2 passing yards per game and 393.1 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Justin Holland has completed 209 of his 336 pass attempts (62 percent) for 2,804 yards and 20 touchdowns. Holland's favorite target is David Anderson, who caught 77 passes for 1,095 yards and eight touchdowns. Kyle Bell has had an outstanding year running the football, rushing for 1,166 yards and nine touchdowns on 254 carries. Defensively, the Rams are giving up 28.9 points per game, 200.6 yards per game on the ground, 211.6 yards per game through the air and 412.3 yards of total offense per contest. Travis Garcia leads the defense with 82 tackles, five tackles for a loss and three sacks. Courtney Jones and Jesse Nading have recorded 10 tackles for a loss apiece, while Nading has four sacks.
It should be mentioned that Navy's offensive statistic have come again inferior competition. Did you know that Navy did not beat a team with a winning record this season? In fact, three of Navy's victories came against Duke, Kent State and Rice (all one-win teams), along with Temple (0-11). A victory against 2-9 Tulane and its best victories against a pair of 4-7 teams in Air Force and Army were the best showings Navy had this season against its competition. Prior to fading a bit down the stretch, Colorado State had good victories against Nevada, Air Force, Utah, Wyoming and a road victory at New Mexico. In total, Navy went 0-2 vs. 2005 bowl teams, falling to Rutgers (21-31) and Notre Dame (21-42). Colorado State meanwhile went 2-4 against teams playing in bowl games this season. The Rams defeated Nevada (42-21) and Utah (21-17) and lost to Colorado (28-31), Minnesota (24-56), BYU (14-24) and TCU (6-33).
Well there is absolutely no question as to the game plan for Navy in this match-up. RUN...RUN...and RUN! Says one CSU defender, referring to Navy's 6.4 to 1 Run/Pass ratio, "Even if you shut them down with three-and-outs four drives in a row, they're still going to come out and run the option on the fifth drive." In last years Bowl match-up Navy had little trouble moving the ball on the ground against a statistically much better stopping defense New Mexico possessed. This time Navy will have the luxury of going against an awful Colorado State rush defense (104th nationally), one that allowed 2,207 yards at an alarming 4.8 per carry this season. However, CSU?s passing attack will present a difficult challenge for Navy's pass defense which allowed more than 61 percent completions and 204 passing yards per game versus a weak schedule. Senior wide receiver David Anderson is unknown nationally, but he was a top performer in the Mountain West Conference again, with 77 catches and more than 1,000 yards receiving. State has played the much tougher schedule, but is 58 points behind the line in its last 3 games. And motivation, as always, rests with the military school.
Although Navy owned a staggering 3.1 yards per rush advantage over Colorado State, take a look at who they played! Seven of Navy wins came against teams who were a combined 5-64 SU vs lined teams. Colorado State meanwhile, has proven they can play with the big boys and they should be primed and ready for this game. Although this game will in effect be a “home” type atmosphere for the Navel Academy, Colorado State is very familiar with this venue from their conference play, so there is no distinct situational advantage. In addition, since Colorado also played Air Force every year, this will not be the first time they will have to prepared or come across the option attack. Look for Colorado State to add continuous pressure on Navy’s quarterback Owens throughout the day. Once they contain him rushing, he'll have a hard time making plays through the air while playing from behind. Colorado State has a versatile and prolific offense and should certainly get its share of points in this game. Let take the points
Forecast: Navy 21, Colorado State 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON COLORADO STATE +3
BYU (6 - 5) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 4)
Week 15 Thursday, 12/22/2005 8:00 PM
Las Vegas Bowl - Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
vs History
Holding a 7-15-1 all-time record in bowl games, BYU will be making its first postseason appearance since the 2001 Liberty Bowl. While this will be their first-ever trip to the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, the Cougars are no strangers to Sam Boyd Stadium. After defeating UNLV 55-14 on November 5, they boast a 7-1 record in Las Vegas, which includes a 28-25 overtime victory over Wyoming in the 1996 Western Athletic Conference Championship and a 30-13 loss to Air Force in the 1998 WAC title clash. Earning its 16th bowl trip overall, Cal, which spent time ranked in the nation's top 10 this fall, will be making its third consecutive post season appearance for the first time since 1948-50. The Cougars did not play any Pac-10 teams and California did not play any MWC teams in 2005. BYU is 25-52-1 all-time against current Pac-10 teams including 2-0 against California. The first meeting between the Cougars and the Golden Bears was in 1999, a game BYU won 38-28 in Provo. The second meeting was in 2001 in California and the Cougars won 44-16. The Cougars are 1-1 against Pac-10 teams in bowl games, including a 38-36 win over Washington State in the 1981 Holiday Bowl and a 31-10 loss to UCLA in the 1986 Freedom Bowl. Overall, Pac-10 Conference teams have played in the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl five times and hold a 3-2 record. Schools now in the MWC have combined to play in nine such games and hold a 5-4 record, including a 4-2 mark since splitting from the WAC and forming the new league in 1999. BYU will try to make it two in a row for its league after Wyoming won last season's affair 24-21 over UCLA.
BYU (6-5, 5-1 Mountain West Conference)
Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall
Career Record: 6-5 (1st year)
Record at UCF: 6-5 (1st year)
Last Bowl: 2001 Liberty Bowl (Louisville 28, BYU 10)
California (7-4, 4-4 Pacific-10)
Head Coach: Jeff Tedford
Career Record: 32-17 (4th year)
Record at UN: 32-17 (4th year)
Last Bowl: 2004 Holiday Bowl (Texas Tech 45, California 31)
BYU Leaders:
Passing: John Beck, 296-460, 3,357 yards, 24 TDs
Rushing: Curtis Brown, 1,095 yards, 14 TDs
Receiving: Jonny Harline, 56 rec., 780 yards, 4 Tds
California Leaders:
Passing: Joe Ayoob, 125-254, 1,707 yards, 15 TDs
Rushing: Marshawn Lynch, 1,052 yards, 7 TDs
Receiving: DeSean Jackson, 32 rec., 471 yards, 5 Tds
BYU:
BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall will be coaching his first game against Cal; however, it will actually be the fifth time Mendenhall has faced the Golden Bears. As a graduate assistant coach at Oregon State in 1989, Mendenhall and the Beavers recorded a 25-14 win over Cal. In 1995 and 1996, Mendenhall served as a full-time assistant coach at Oregon State. Cal won both the 1995 and '96 games, including a 48-42, triple-overtime game in 1996. In 1997, as the secondary coach at Louisiana Tech, Mendenhall and the Bulldogs defeated Cal, 41-34. BYU Athletics Director Tom Holmoe served as the head football coach at Cal for five seasons.
CALIFORNIA:
The 2005 Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl will mark the fifth time California Head Coach Jeff Tedford has faced the Cougars. As an assistant coach at Fresno State from 1992-1997, Tedford coached against BYU four different times. During his tenure at Fresno State, the Bulldogs posted a 1-3 record against BYU. Stud RB Marshawn Lynch leads the Golden Bears with 1,052 yards rushing and seven touchdowns while Justin Forsett is close behind with 962 yards and six touchdowns. Forsett averages 7.8 yards per carry while Lynch averages 6.1 yards per carry. Joe Ayoob leads California with 1,707 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes. DeSean Jackson is the team's leading receiver with 471 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, the Golden Bears have been solid all year, limiting their opponents to 20.5 points per game and 351.6 yards of total offense. California has also recorded an amazing 80 tackles for loss, including 31 sacks on the year.
GAME NOTES: Like Toledo in the GMAC Bowl, California is another team that has some bad post-season memories to erase - they never did figure out the Texas Tech passing play book in losing to the Red Raiders 45-31 in the Holiday Bowl LY. Now they get a unique opportunity for redemption. It just so happens that the new Brigham Young offensive coordinator this season is Robert Anae, who was one of the offensive assistants with Texas Tech before coming over. Anae has slowly been putting in some of those very same tactics that make Tech so successful, and it was a reason why the Cougars were able to turn things around this season.
TRENDS
BYU:
BYU is 3-10 SU last 13 bowl games.
BYU is 1-11 ATS against a Pac Ten foe when coming off a league game.
BYU is 6-11-1 ATS as Bowlers since 1981.
BYU is 5-2 ATS last 7 this year.
CALIFORNIA:
California is 0-3 ATS against teams playing in a Bowl this season.
California is also 1-4 SU & ATS in their last five games against a team from the mountain West Conference.
California is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in 2005 and 3-7 ATS on the season.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Mountain West Conference teams are 8-3 SU & ATS as Bowlers vs an opponent of an ATS win.
This has been a traditionally lower-scoring bowl with six of last seven Las Vegas Bowls having "totals" of 45 or fewer.
Analysis
BYU (6-5 overall, 5-3 Mountain West Conference) will travel to Las Vegas to take on California (7-4 overall, 4-4 Pacific-10) in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl. The game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium (36,800) and televised on ESPN at 5 p.m. (PST). The game will be BYU's ninth appearance in Sam Boyd Stadium, where the Cougars are 7-1. They are 6-0 in Vegas against UNLV and 1-1 in Western Athletic Championship games. BYU is coming off a 41-34 overtime loss to the University of Utah. The Cougars fell behind early and trailed 24-3 at the half but outscored the Utes 31-10 in the second half to force overtime. Utah scored on its first drive in overtime and BYU failed to convert. Meanwhile, their opponent, California enters the Las Vegas Bowl with a 7-4 record. After winning their first five games of the season, the Golden Bears have won two of their final six games. Following a heart-breaking overtime loss at Oregon on Nov. 5, and a hard-fought loss against top-ranked USC on Nov. 12, Cal finished the regular season with a decisive 27-3 win over Stanford. Steve Levy passed for 125 yards and one touchdown while Marshawn Lynch rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown. California limited the Cardinal to 327 yards of total offense and just 3.9 yards per play.
While this game will also mark the first-ever appearance for both teams at the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, both teams have been to a combined 38 bowl games. The Cougars will be making their 24th bowl appearance, while Cal will be playing in its 16th bowl game. BYU has posted a 7-15-1 bowl record, while the Golden Bears are 6-8-1 in post-season play. The Golden Bears have a 13-10 all-time record against current members of the Mountain West Conference, while the Cougars have a 27-52 record against teams from the Pac-10. Since beating Cal, 44-16, BYU has gone 0-4 against Pac-10 teams, including losses against Stanford and USC.
One can only believe that Cal is again disappointed in the fact that they are forced to play in a rather "un sexy" bowl game especially considering that they were at one point this season an AP top 10 team (last year Cal should have been playing in a BCS game but was snubbed). Amazingly that feet was accomplished even after they graduated 90% of last season's offense, which included QB Aaron Rogers and RB J.J. Arrington. However, a look inside Cal?s early successes shows that those wins were against the poorer teams in all of NCAA Division 1-A football (Washington, Illinois and New Mexico State). Indeed those three teams would combine for four wins all year and poor 11-23 ATS showing. When California had to play the better teams in their conference starting in October, their perfect 5-0 record quickly turned into 7-4, but BYU could hardly be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Oregon, USC, Oregon State and UCLA. The Cougar?s also struggles mightily against bowl-bound teams this season, posting a 1-4 SU and ATS record and yielding 35 PPG.
Fundamentally, BYU brings to this game the 8th ranked passing offense, 46th ranked rushing offense and the nations 13 ranked total offense. California counters with the nations 90th ranked passing offense, 10th ranked rushing offense and the nations 31st rank in total offense. On the year BYU averaged 33.45 points per contest, and Cal averaged 32.73. The problem for one of these teams is defense. BYUs defense this year can be summed up in one word...MISERABLE. BYU allowed close to five TDs per game, 5.9 yards per play on the ground, 12.4 yards per completion and 62.6% of all passes against them to be completed finishing the year as the 93rd ranked defense in the land. The Cougars were positively torched by strong passing games, most notably in their 49-23 loss at Notre Dame, when Brady Quinn enjoyed a record-setting afternoon against the Cougars secondary. In order to have a chance, BYU will have to improve on the yards they yield on the ground as Cal for much of the season was one of the top 3 teams in all of Division I football in running the ball. Although BYU's passing defense was actually worse then the rushing aspect, its hard to imagine Cal winning this game through the air especially considering that Former backup running back Steve Levy has now taken over the starting QB job after former started Joe Ayoob was benched following the Bears' 35-10 home loss.
On paper, BYU appears to have a fundamental match-up advantage when they have possession of the ball on offense. The explosive Cougars have ridden the arm of QB John Beck (3,357 PYs, 24 TDs, 64.3%), & legs of R Curtis Brown (1,095 RYs, 15 TDs) averaging 46.5 ppg in their final 4 outings. However, Cals secondary is very underrated. Indeed, the Bear secondary had more interceptions, 13, than TD passes allowed against them, 11. In addition, Cal also has had the advantage of playing in a competitive PAC-10 with many teams using a similar wide open passing attack. Situationally, BYU should enjoy whatever limited crowd support there is at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Cougars traditionally draw well when they travel to face UNLV, with a large local fan base, and the trip from Provo, Utah, is much easier to make than the trip from Berkeley, Calif.
The line open at Cal -6.5 and has since been bet up to -7.5. Betting indicators are showing that 71% of the bets being placed as of now are on the Golden Bears, so the contrarian side would be to take BYU. However, this game is really a capping nightmare because it is impossible to forecast which California team will show up in tonight’s game. The good one could show up, and this one would be over at halftime, or the poor Cal team could rare it ugly face and they we would have a BYU cover. Given the fact that I personally like Cal, but knowing that they are 0-8 ATS against winning non-conference teams when favored by more than three points, there is just no way I can back them in this spot. Rest assured, no way will I back BYU either so I will pass on this side.
Nevertheless this is the bowl season so we will find something to put our money on. A look at the match-up in this contest screams over the total. As stated above, BYU’s defense stinks! Meanwhile, Cal’s defense is also vulnerable, allowing 35 points per game against their only three opponents in bowls. Of course those of you that know how I bet know that since everything in the world is pointing of the over, I going to recommend a play on UNDER the posted total of 61.5. As stated above, the Bears have struggled at the quarterback position all season and will be again using their third-string QB in Steve Levy in this game. With Cal’s shaky situation at the QB position BYU’s HC Mendenhall should be able to focus on shutting down the run and dare the Cal passing game to beat them (which is not their strength). In addition, although BYU does possess a potent passing attack, Cal played in the PAC-10 Conference that features a plethora of teams who use a similar wide open passing attack, so don’t be surprised when CAL is more than ready to make stops here, especially since the Cougar weapons are not all that imposing. Go UNDER.
Forecast: BYU 21, Calfornia 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BYU/CALIFORNIA UNDER 61.5
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