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California (-7.5) vs. BYU (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl)
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hot at 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as the Golden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. After limping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. The Cougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QB John Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.
Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likes California, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public money has forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, this is our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.
Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)
Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging 305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200 rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend to be high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just the
opposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In 2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards and had a 143 passer rating.
When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of the strength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, Colorado State’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-A schools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests one should adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.
We occasionally have a “sharp vs. public” game and this is one of them. The wise guys are solidly on Colorado St. The public is favoring the Midshipmen by a 3:1 ratio. Despite the public backing, we are relatively flat due to the larger average bet-size of the sharps.
NY Giants (+3) at Washington
Behind Tiki Barber’s 220 yards rushing last weekend, the Giants knocked off the Chiefs 27-17 and closed to within one game of winning its division. Part of the Giants’ success has been a consistent running game, averaging 146 yards/game. The Giants can clinch the division with a win here or with a win next weekend at Oakland.
Washington has won three straight games and will advance to the playoffs if it wins its last two. Due to its 8-2 NFC record, Washington can also secure a wildcard with a win over New York combined with losses by Dallas, Minnesota and Atlanta this week.
We opened at Washington -3 -107, and took a few early sharp hits on the Redskins. As the line crept up, we saw sharp opposition on the Giants at +3 +112. Given the price each took, both sharp positions are “correct”. Thus far, this has been our highest volume game of the week. The public favors the Giants and we are presently taking twice as many bets on them.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Baltimore
After winning six of its last seven, Minnesota is in contention for a
wildcard spot, but they need to win tough games against Baltimore and Chicago. Finishing at 9-7 would probably still not be enough; the NFC conference record is the tiebreaker in most cases with 3+ teams tied for a wildcard spot. With a current NFC record of 7-4, the Vikings would be selected after Washington (8-2) and Tampa Bay/Carolina (both at 7-3).
We initially opened this game at Minnesota -1 -112. The sharps were unanimous in backing Baltimore even before the Monday night 48-3 blowout of the Packers. The sharps mostly got their bets in on Baltimore as a small dog, playing the Ravens down to -1 -114. After the Monday Night game the public followed the sharps, driving the price up to Baltimore -2.5
-113. We have accepted three bets on Baltimore for every one on Minnesota.
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hot at 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as the Golden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. After limping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. The Cougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QB John Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.
Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likes California, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public money has forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, this is our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.
Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)
Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging 305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200 rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend to be high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just the
opposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In 2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards and had a 143 passer rating.
When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of the strength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, Colorado State’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-A schools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests one should adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.
We occasionally have a “sharp vs. public” game and this is one of them. The wise guys are solidly on Colorado St. The public is favoring the Midshipmen by a 3:1 ratio. Despite the public backing, we are relatively flat due to the larger average bet-size of the sharps.
NY Giants (+3) at Washington
Behind Tiki Barber’s 220 yards rushing last weekend, the Giants knocked off the Chiefs 27-17 and closed to within one game of winning its division. Part of the Giants’ success has been a consistent running game, averaging 146 yards/game. The Giants can clinch the division with a win here or with a win next weekend at Oakland.
Washington has won three straight games and will advance to the playoffs if it wins its last two. Due to its 8-2 NFC record, Washington can also secure a wildcard with a win over New York combined with losses by Dallas, Minnesota and Atlanta this week.
We opened at Washington -3 -107, and took a few early sharp hits on the Redskins. As the line crept up, we saw sharp opposition on the Giants at +3 +112. Given the price each took, both sharp positions are “correct”. Thus far, this has been our highest volume game of the week. The public favors the Giants and we are presently taking twice as many bets on them.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Baltimore
After winning six of its last seven, Minnesota is in contention for a
wildcard spot, but they need to win tough games against Baltimore and Chicago. Finishing at 9-7 would probably still not be enough; the NFC conference record is the tiebreaker in most cases with 3+ teams tied for a wildcard spot. With a current NFC record of 7-4, the Vikings would be selected after Washington (8-2) and Tampa Bay/Carolina (both at 7-3).
We initially opened this game at Minnesota -1 -112. The sharps were unanimous in backing Baltimore even before the Monday night 48-3 blowout of the Packers. The sharps mostly got their bets in on Baltimore as a small dog, playing the Ravens down to -1 -114. After the Monday Night game the public followed the sharps, driving the price up to Baltimore -2.5
-113. We have accepted three bets on Baltimore for every one on Minnesota.