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NICE START TO THE BOWL SEASO AS I FORECAST A 13 POINT WIN FOR SOUTHERN MISS AND THEY WON BY 12. AS OF RIGHT NOW, I SEE SOME VERY HIGH RATED SELECTIONS IN SOME OF THE LATER BOWL GAMES SO HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT LEARN OF ANY NEW INJURIES OR ANYTHING ELSE TO CHANGE MY RATINGS ON THOSE GAMES. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
BOWL RECORD:
1 WIN; 0 LOSSES
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* TOLEDO -3
Opinion: TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
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UTEP (8 - 3) vs. TOLEDO (8 - 3)
Week 15 Wednesday, 12/21/2005 8:00 PM
GMAC Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
vs 
History
This is the first meeting between these clubs. UTEP is making its 12th bowl appearance (second consecutive) in the GMAC Bowl, and Toledo is making its 10th bowl appearance (second straight and fourth in the last five years). UTEP has also been designated the home team. UTEP is 5-6 SU in bowls. UTEP is also appearing in a bowl game in back-to-back years for the first time since 1954, and only the third time in school history. The 2005 GMAC Bowl marks the fifth different bowl that the Miners have played in. UTEP has participated in the Sun Bowl eight times and played in the Independence, Humanitarian and Houston bowls once each. Meanwhile, Toledo is 6-3 in bowl games.The Rockets went to the Motor City Bowl in 2001, 2002 and 2004. Toledo was beaten by Boston College, 51-25, in the 2002 Motor City Bowl and by Colorado, 39-10, in the 2004 Motor City Bowl. The Rockets have also played in the Tangerine Bowl (1969, 1970 and 1971), the California Bowl (1981 and 1984) and the Las Vegas Bowl (1995). Toledo is also the fourth MAC team to play in the GMAC Bowl, the others are Bowling Green, Miami and Marshall (twice). Those teams went 4-0 SU in this Bowl.
UTEP (8-3, 5-3 in C-USA)
Last Bowl: 2004 Ev1.net Houston (Colorado 33, UTEP 28)
Toledo (8-3, 6-2 in MAC- co-Western Division Champions)
Last Bowl: 2004 Motor City (Connecticut 39, Toledo 10)
UTEP Leaders:
Passing: Jordan Palmer, 244-401, 3,340 yards, 28 TDs
Rushing: Marcus Thomas, 720 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Johnnie Lee Higgins, 47 rec., 807 yards, 8 Tds
Toledo Leaders:
Passing: Bruce Gradkowski, 189-302, 2,171 yards, 24 TDs
Rushing: Trinity Dawson, 1,170 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Steve Odom, 50 rec., 593 yards, 5 TDs
UTEP:
UTEP is making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time since 1954-55. This is the fourth straight year that a Mike Price coached team has played in a bowl game (two at UTEP and two at Washington State). His teams have a 36-12 overall record during that span. UTEP ranks sixth nationally in passing offense (310.5 ypg), 20th in passing efficiency (142.52) and total offense (438 ypg), and 21st in scoring offense (33.6 ppg). (310.5 ypg). Junior QB Jordan Palmer already owns the school's career records for completions (555), attempts (965), yards (7,326) and touchdowns (61). The Miners are 1-2 all-time versus MAC schools. UTEP won at Northern Illinois, 37-6, on Sept. 28, 1996, the Miners lost to Bowling Green, 21-0, on Nov. 19, 1960 in El Paso, and UTEP was also beaten by Kent State, 51-24, on Oct. 12, 1985 in Kent, Ohio. UTEP is making only their second trip all-time to the state of Alabama, they lost a 56-7 decision to the Alabama Crimson Tide in its last visit to the state on Oct. 6, 2001. UTEP is also trying to end the season with a victory for the first time since 1986. A victory would also give the Miners a nine-win season for just the third time in school history.
TOLEDO
Toledo is playing in a bowl game for the second straight season and the fourth time in five years. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season, topping the 40-point mark on five occasions. Senior QB Bruce Gradkowski, owner of 19 UT single game, single season and career passing records, was the co-winner of the Vern Smith Award as the MVP of the Mid-American Conference. Senior K Jason Robbins was named MAC Special Teams Player of the Year after going 12-for-12 on field goals and 48-of-49 on extra points with his lone miss coming on a blocked kick. Since the beginning of the 2000 season, Toledo has a record of 54-19 (.740), making it the 11th-winningest program in I-A over that time. Toledo has 32 players with experience in at least one bowl, and 10 players who have seen action in two bowls.
GAME NOTES: This marks the first meeting between the schools. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in total offense UTEP ranks 17th, averaging 454.4 yards per game, just edging out Toledo, who is 18th with a 453.9 average. Quarterbacks Jordan Palmer (UTEP) and Bruce Gradkowski (Toledo) have combined to pass for 16,253 yards and 141 touchdowns in their careers. Gradkowski will be the sixth different QB from a MAC school to play at Ladd-Peebles Stadium since 2000. In either the GMAC Bowl or Senior Bowl, the previous five have combined to complete 60 percent of their passes for 1,974 yards and 19 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
TRENDS:
UTEP
UTEP is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and are only 4-8 ATS last 12.
UTEP is 3-0 when playing on ESPN networks in 2005 (1-0 on ESPN, 1-0 on ESPN2, 1-0 on ESPNU).
UTEP is 7-0 SU when scoring 30 or more points this season.
UTEP is also 14-2 ATS under coach Mike Price when scoring 30 or more points.
UTEP is 4-13 ATS against non-conference opponents since 2000 and a horrible 1-12 when they are an underdog.
TOLEDO
Toledo is 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games away from home.
Toledo HC Tom Amstutz is 1-4-1 ATS away from the Glass Bowl this year and 0-10 ATS since 2002 facing non-MAC foes away from home.
Toledo is 8-4 ATS last 12 as a favorite of less then 10 points.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
UTEP is 0-3 SU & ATS in bowl games since 1988.
The favorite is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last 3 GMAC Bowl games.
Teams representing the MAC conference have gone 10-4 SU in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year.
Analysis
Motivation will be the theme in this game and Toledo certainly has more but will they be able to stop the always dangerous UTEP passing attack? Coming into this contest, Toledo has been embarrassed in their last two bowls a 29-point loss to Connecticut in last year's Motor City Bowl and a 26-point loss versus Boston College in the 2002 Motor City Bowl. This will also be the very first bowl game for senior QB Bruce Gradkowski and he will be looking to showcase his talents to the many NFL scouts who will be in attendance. Second, the reason why this is his first bowl game is also the reason why Tom Amstutz and the rest of their program have plenty to prove. Last year, when they were in the Motor City Bowl, Gradkowski was sidelined by an injury. Gradkowski is the heart and soul of the Rocket offense, this season there has been a much improved ground game, and it has led to one of the best balanced attacks in all Division I-A football averaging 221.6 yards per game on the ground, and 223.6 yards through the air. Toledo also protects the football, in seven of 11 games they had either one turnover or none. And while Toledo takes such great care of the football, Mike Price's offense coughed it up an alarming 32 times in 10 lined games.
Toledo's opponent, the University of Texas at El Paso is perhaps on of the best Cinderella stories in all of College football the last two seasons. Prior to hiring Mike Price UTEP's season records were 2 wins 9 losses, 2 wins 10 losses and 2 wins 11 losses. Now, they will be playing in their second consecutive bowl game after producing identical 8-3 records the past two seasons. Said Marshall's head coach after UTEP defeated them 31-3 ".its scary to think how good this team can be if they are at full strength." Unfortunately, for Toledo it appears that UTEP might be at full strength for this contest as the Miners could get as many as four injured key players back for the GMAC Bowl. Senior RB Matt Austin has missed the last three games, senior WR Jayson Boyd has been sidelined for five of the last six contests, senior RB Tyler Ebell has been out for the last five games and senior DL Chris Mineo has missed the last seven games. Boyd, Ebell and Mineo were all starters earlier in the year and Austin is a 1,000-yard career rusher. Boyd owns 951 career receiving yards. Ebell went over 2,000 yards rushing for his career in his last game at Rice. Mineo was putting up monster numbers (eight tackles for losses, six sacks) in the first four games before having his season cut short. UTEP also has some motivation on their side as they will be trying to win a bowl game for the first time since 1967!
While both of these teams have well developed offenses, each have struggled defensively down the stretch. Toledo allowed 35 to Northern Illinois and 41 to Bowling Green in their last two games. In their last four games against Division 1-A opponents UTEP gave up 31, 38, 35, and 40 points. With some disappointment from each about failing to secure their conference crown, this game could be wide open and lack defensive intensity. Indeed, each gave up over 30 points in their bowl losses last year. Look for points, LOTS and LOTS of points as both teams possess superior offensives and inferior defenses. Thus the OVER looks like the obvious play, but with better then 8-1 bets coming in on the over we will step aside and look for something better.
With all of the above duly noted I can’t help but see value in the line on the side of Toledo and I look for them to continue the MAC Conference domination in the GMAC Bowl. Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61 in 2001, then beat Louisville 38-15 the following year. Miami (Ohio) knocked off Louisville again in 2003, 49-28. And Bowling Green kept the MAC's winning tradition alive with a 52-35 victory against Memphis last year. In fact, the MAC as a conference has gone 10-4 straight up in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year. Also, you have to consider that UTEP HC Price is only 7-15 SU & 8-14 ATS away from home off a loss against winning teams, and 0-6 ATS if his team allowed more than 36 points in its last game and if things can’t get any worse, UTEP also checks in at 1-12 ATS as non-conference dogs. Meanwhile, Toledo is playing out of the collective minds and have out gained 10 of their 11 opponent on the field this year. Toledo has a huge QB edge with Bruce Gradkowski, who virtually never turns the ball over and a big edge in the running game. Given the short price in this line lets lay the points.
Forecast: Toledo 38, UTEP 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TOLEDO -3
OPINION SELECTION ON TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
BOWL RECORD:
1 WIN; 0 LOSSES
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* TOLEDO -3
Opinion: TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
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UTEP (8 - 3) vs. TOLEDO (8 - 3)
Week 15 Wednesday, 12/21/2005 8:00 PM
GMAC Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
vs History
This is the first meeting between these clubs. UTEP is making its 12th bowl appearance (second consecutive) in the GMAC Bowl, and Toledo is making its 10th bowl appearance (second straight and fourth in the last five years). UTEP has also been designated the home team. UTEP is 5-6 SU in bowls. UTEP is also appearing in a bowl game in back-to-back years for the first time since 1954, and only the third time in school history. The 2005 GMAC Bowl marks the fifth different bowl that the Miners have played in. UTEP has participated in the Sun Bowl eight times and played in the Independence, Humanitarian and Houston bowls once each. Meanwhile, Toledo is 6-3 in bowl games.The Rockets went to the Motor City Bowl in 2001, 2002 and 2004. Toledo was beaten by Boston College, 51-25, in the 2002 Motor City Bowl and by Colorado, 39-10, in the 2004 Motor City Bowl. The Rockets have also played in the Tangerine Bowl (1969, 1970 and 1971), the California Bowl (1981 and 1984) and the Las Vegas Bowl (1995). Toledo is also the fourth MAC team to play in the GMAC Bowl, the others are Bowling Green, Miami and Marshall (twice). Those teams went 4-0 SU in this Bowl.
UTEP (8-3, 5-3 in C-USA)
Last Bowl: 2004 Ev1.net Houston (Colorado 33, UTEP 28)
Toledo (8-3, 6-2 in MAC- co-Western Division Champions)
Last Bowl: 2004 Motor City (Connecticut 39, Toledo 10)
UTEP Leaders:
Passing: Jordan Palmer, 244-401, 3,340 yards, 28 TDs
Rushing: Marcus Thomas, 720 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Johnnie Lee Higgins, 47 rec., 807 yards, 8 Tds
Toledo Leaders:
Passing: Bruce Gradkowski, 189-302, 2,171 yards, 24 TDs
Rushing: Trinity Dawson, 1,170 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Steve Odom, 50 rec., 593 yards, 5 TDs
UTEP:
UTEP is making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time since 1954-55. This is the fourth straight year that a Mike Price coached team has played in a bowl game (two at UTEP and two at Washington State). His teams have a 36-12 overall record during that span. UTEP ranks sixth nationally in passing offense (310.5 ypg), 20th in passing efficiency (142.52) and total offense (438 ypg), and 21st in scoring offense (33.6 ppg). (310.5 ypg). Junior QB Jordan Palmer already owns the school's career records for completions (555), attempts (965), yards (7,326) and touchdowns (61). The Miners are 1-2 all-time versus MAC schools. UTEP won at Northern Illinois, 37-6, on Sept. 28, 1996, the Miners lost to Bowling Green, 21-0, on Nov. 19, 1960 in El Paso, and UTEP was also beaten by Kent State, 51-24, on Oct. 12, 1985 in Kent, Ohio. UTEP is making only their second trip all-time to the state of Alabama, they lost a 56-7 decision to the Alabama Crimson Tide in its last visit to the state on Oct. 6, 2001. UTEP is also trying to end the season with a victory for the first time since 1986. A victory would also give the Miners a nine-win season for just the third time in school history.
TOLEDO
Toledo is playing in a bowl game for the second straight season and the fourth time in five years. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season, topping the 40-point mark on five occasions. Senior QB Bruce Gradkowski, owner of 19 UT single game, single season and career passing records, was the co-winner of the Vern Smith Award as the MVP of the Mid-American Conference. Senior K Jason Robbins was named MAC Special Teams Player of the Year after going 12-for-12 on field goals and 48-of-49 on extra points with his lone miss coming on a blocked kick. Since the beginning of the 2000 season, Toledo has a record of 54-19 (.740), making it the 11th-winningest program in I-A over that time. Toledo has 32 players with experience in at least one bowl, and 10 players who have seen action in two bowls.
GAME NOTES: This marks the first meeting between the schools. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in total offense UTEP ranks 17th, averaging 454.4 yards per game, just edging out Toledo, who is 18th with a 453.9 average. Quarterbacks Jordan Palmer (UTEP) and Bruce Gradkowski (Toledo) have combined to pass for 16,253 yards and 141 touchdowns in their careers. Gradkowski will be the sixth different QB from a MAC school to play at Ladd-Peebles Stadium since 2000. In either the GMAC Bowl or Senior Bowl, the previous five have combined to complete 60 percent of their passes for 1,974 yards and 19 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
TRENDS:
UTEP
UTEP is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and are only 4-8 ATS last 12.
UTEP is 3-0 when playing on ESPN networks in 2005 (1-0 on ESPN, 1-0 on ESPN2, 1-0 on ESPNU).
UTEP is 7-0 SU when scoring 30 or more points this season.
UTEP is also 14-2 ATS under coach Mike Price when scoring 30 or more points.
UTEP is 4-13 ATS against non-conference opponents since 2000 and a horrible 1-12 when they are an underdog.
TOLEDO
Toledo is 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games away from home.
Toledo HC Tom Amstutz is 1-4-1 ATS away from the Glass Bowl this year and 0-10 ATS since 2002 facing non-MAC foes away from home.
Toledo is 8-4 ATS last 12 as a favorite of less then 10 points.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
UTEP is 0-3 SU & ATS in bowl games since 1988.
The favorite is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last 3 GMAC Bowl games.
Teams representing the MAC conference have gone 10-4 SU in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year.
Analysis
Motivation will be the theme in this game and Toledo certainly has more but will they be able to stop the always dangerous UTEP passing attack? Coming into this contest, Toledo has been embarrassed in their last two bowls a 29-point loss to Connecticut in last year's Motor City Bowl and a 26-point loss versus Boston College in the 2002 Motor City Bowl. This will also be the very first bowl game for senior QB Bruce Gradkowski and he will be looking to showcase his talents to the many NFL scouts who will be in attendance. Second, the reason why this is his first bowl game is also the reason why Tom Amstutz and the rest of their program have plenty to prove. Last year, when they were in the Motor City Bowl, Gradkowski was sidelined by an injury. Gradkowski is the heart and soul of the Rocket offense, this season there has been a much improved ground game, and it has led to one of the best balanced attacks in all Division I-A football averaging 221.6 yards per game on the ground, and 223.6 yards through the air. Toledo also protects the football, in seven of 11 games they had either one turnover or none. And while Toledo takes such great care of the football, Mike Price's offense coughed it up an alarming 32 times in 10 lined games.
Toledo's opponent, the University of Texas at El Paso is perhaps on of the best Cinderella stories in all of College football the last two seasons. Prior to hiring Mike Price UTEP's season records were 2 wins 9 losses, 2 wins 10 losses and 2 wins 11 losses. Now, they will be playing in their second consecutive bowl game after producing identical 8-3 records the past two seasons. Said Marshall's head coach after UTEP defeated them 31-3 ".its scary to think how good this team can be if they are at full strength." Unfortunately, for Toledo it appears that UTEP might be at full strength for this contest as the Miners could get as many as four injured key players back for the GMAC Bowl. Senior RB Matt Austin has missed the last three games, senior WR Jayson Boyd has been sidelined for five of the last six contests, senior RB Tyler Ebell has been out for the last five games and senior DL Chris Mineo has missed the last seven games. Boyd, Ebell and Mineo were all starters earlier in the year and Austin is a 1,000-yard career rusher. Boyd owns 951 career receiving yards. Ebell went over 2,000 yards rushing for his career in his last game at Rice. Mineo was putting up monster numbers (eight tackles for losses, six sacks) in the first four games before having his season cut short. UTEP also has some motivation on their side as they will be trying to win a bowl game for the first time since 1967!
While both of these teams have well developed offenses, each have struggled defensively down the stretch. Toledo allowed 35 to Northern Illinois and 41 to Bowling Green in their last two games. In their last four games against Division 1-A opponents UTEP gave up 31, 38, 35, and 40 points. With some disappointment from each about failing to secure their conference crown, this game could be wide open and lack defensive intensity. Indeed, each gave up over 30 points in their bowl losses last year. Look for points, LOTS and LOTS of points as both teams possess superior offensives and inferior defenses. Thus the OVER looks like the obvious play, but with better then 8-1 bets coming in on the over we will step aside and look for something better.
With all of the above duly noted I can’t help but see value in the line on the side of Toledo and I look for them to continue the MAC Conference domination in the GMAC Bowl. Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61 in 2001, then beat Louisville 38-15 the following year. Miami (Ohio) knocked off Louisville again in 2003, 49-28. And Bowling Green kept the MAC's winning tradition alive with a 52-35 victory against Memphis last year. In fact, the MAC as a conference has gone 10-4 straight up in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year. Also, you have to consider that UTEP HC Price is only 7-15 SU & 8-14 ATS away from home off a loss against winning teams, and 0-6 ATS if his team allowed more than 36 points in its last game and if things can’t get any worse, UTEP also checks in at 1-12 ATS as non-conference dogs. Meanwhile, Toledo is playing out of the collective minds and have out gained 10 of their 11 opponent on the field this year. Toledo has a huge QB edge with Bruce Gradkowski, who virtually never turns the ball over and a big edge in the running game. Given the short price in this line lets lay the points.
Forecast: Toledo 38, UTEP 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TOLEDO -3
OPINION SELECTION ON TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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