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The Record :
Sides: 42-32
Totals: 41-20
Overall: 83-52
Foreward:
Well the unthinkable did happen last week … the dogs prevailed … Miami shocked the world, so did The Jets , while Cleveland, Philadelphia , Baltimore and Detroit scared the crap out of their opponents. Jacksonville pushed / covered by the back door as well.
No doubt that San Diego got all the way caught in a look - ahead toward their encounter with The Colts … a mistake which may well have taken The Chargers right out of the playoffs … shame on you Marty, and a bad break for us in BC … If The Chargers miss the post season we will have been deprived of a gigantic payoff by fading them. They do have one of the all time worst playoff coaches in NFL history.
I do feel however that San Diego will play their asses off and give The Colts a life and death battle right down to the finish.
Last Sunday I played The Chargers , giving 13 at home to Miami. I missed that one by a mile and deservedly so. The truth is that 13 points were suspiciously low , indicating a play on the dog. San Diego would have been -6 ½ at Miami and that would have thrown a red flag in my face. I missed it . Early in the 2nd half while I was watching the game, The Linemaker was whispering in my ear: " Neil , how could you ? … and after all I taught you ". Then and there I knew I had bought the wrong side.
Perhaps today there's an opportunity for redemption. Seattle -7 at Tennessee parallels the S.D. / Miami game . The Hawks would be 13 1/2 at home and that's too low. And guess who Seattle plays next week ? … The Colts …. I'm buying The Short in this game and making it a top play.
Seattle is 0-18 in this spot ( 0-6 and 0-12 ) and there's a nifty little 20 -2 System in The Titans' favor.
The Public is ga ga over Seattle but little do they know that aside from the above tendencies , there's a hidden Gem revealing that no team in Seattle's situation has covered since the 1970's .
In addition , while The Titans won't be able to deal with Seattle in a shootout , there is a System for this game to play The Under and it's 1/15 ( 1 over , 15 unders ). I never do this but today I 'll cite the system :
" The league is 1/15 as an away favorite of more than 3 points when they are off a win by 7 or more points in which they rushed for at least 100 more yards than their opponent. "
This alone is not NEARLY enough for me to make the game an Under Play , but it's a hint that the game could be low scoring. If it is , then Tennessee's covering chances markedly improve.
One of the most popular Service Touts is releasing his 5* NFL Game of the Year today. ( We all know by now that he is Savage's Favorite … Hint , Hint )
I'm hoping he'll come with The Seahawks but it probably will be Pittsburgh.
THE PLAYS: Expect the unexpected again this week
Top Sides: As usual , Selective Underdogs.
Tennessee , taking 7 , at home vs. Seattle
Cleveland , taking 3 , at Oakland … Oakland is just flat out miserable in this spot.
San Diego , taking 7 or 8 , at Indianapolis … we can be reasonably certain that The Chargers will be primed for maximum effort
Yesterday : New England , giving 4 , at home vs. Tampa Bay … Top Side Complete Dominator of the Year … This one was a biggie … Congrats to us on a perfect game !
Money Line Play : Cleveland with a nibble on the other 2 top sides.
Contrary Side Plays:
Dallas / Washington : Does anyone like The Redskins ? All I'm hearing is Dallas and revenge , revenge and even more Revenge for being hoodwinked by The Skins earlier this year on MNFB. With revenge as an only motive to bet a side, better dig 2 graves … and one should be reserved for your wallet. I'm looking at the home team here but only for small . If Joe Gibbs has The Skins blitzing off the bus , Bledsoe could very well be The Perfect Patsy .
Detroit + over Cincinnati … Same as KC yesterday … most are on Cincy like it's free. Just a nibble to be against Square money.
Houston + over Arizona … Seeing a few GOY's on Arizona … what a joke ! The Cards always fake out The Squares every year late in the season. Forget the idea that Houston is tanking in order to get Reggie Bush . The owners are too slow to pull off such an elaborate scheme. David Carr will probably come up big today.
Atlanta + over Chicago … especially if outs come off the 3 and go to 3 ½ - 4 . I think the ones who got beaten up today will look to Chicago for a desparation bale out side . Sunday night "Shocker " . Go Falcons !!!!
Opinions :
Jacksonville -
Philadelphia +
The Jets / Dolphins game is very tricky … the 9 looks tempting, a little too tempting. … play the Under only. This game is dead even from an angles , trends, and systems perspective.
Top Totals Plays: Rare losing day last Sunday for totals ( some tough breaks ) but an easy winner last Monday with the High on New Orleans - Atlanta , flying Over the posted total.
Pittsburgh / Minnesota Over 40
NY Jets / Miami Under 35
Cleveland / Oakland Over 30
Philadelphia / St. Louis Under 43
Yesterday: Kansas City / NT Giants Under 48 … Won
Opinions:
San Diego / Colts Over
San Francisco / Jacksonville Under
Arizona / Houston Over
Cincinnati / Detroit Over
Monday Night:
Last Thursday in " Shooting from the Hip " I sort of went off on how Brett Favre's skills have eroded.
All the guys who follow " 3 Wise Men Baseball " know by now that whenever I give one of my " Schpiels " ( Sermons ) , it's best to go the other way and load up. We laughed about it throughout the 2005 season.
I'm doing the exact same thing … I'm going to fade my sermon . I do that sometimes and more often than not, it works.
Top Side Play : Green Bay + at Baltimore ( with a small money line play as well )
( BTW , Green Bay's team trends are 20-0 and there are 3 league systems which favor The Pack to the tune of 56-11 )
Totals Opinion : Only a leaning to The Under
As Always,
Best of Luck
-Neil
Sides: 42-32
Totals: 41-20
Overall: 83-52
Foreward:
Well the unthinkable did happen last week … the dogs prevailed … Miami shocked the world, so did The Jets , while Cleveland, Philadelphia , Baltimore and Detroit scared the crap out of their opponents. Jacksonville pushed / covered by the back door as well.
No doubt that San Diego got all the way caught in a look - ahead toward their encounter with The Colts … a mistake which may well have taken The Chargers right out of the playoffs … shame on you Marty, and a bad break for us in BC … If The Chargers miss the post season we will have been deprived of a gigantic payoff by fading them. They do have one of the all time worst playoff coaches in NFL history.
I do feel however that San Diego will play their asses off and give The Colts a life and death battle right down to the finish.
Last Sunday I played The Chargers , giving 13 at home to Miami. I missed that one by a mile and deservedly so. The truth is that 13 points were suspiciously low , indicating a play on the dog. San Diego would have been -6 ½ at Miami and that would have thrown a red flag in my face. I missed it . Early in the 2nd half while I was watching the game, The Linemaker was whispering in my ear: " Neil , how could you ? … and after all I taught you ". Then and there I knew I had bought the wrong side.
Perhaps today there's an opportunity for redemption. Seattle -7 at Tennessee parallels the S.D. / Miami game . The Hawks would be 13 1/2 at home and that's too low. And guess who Seattle plays next week ? … The Colts …. I'm buying The Short in this game and making it a top play.
Seattle is 0-18 in this spot ( 0-6 and 0-12 ) and there's a nifty little 20 -2 System in The Titans' favor.
The Public is ga ga over Seattle but little do they know that aside from the above tendencies , there's a hidden Gem revealing that no team in Seattle's situation has covered since the 1970's .
In addition , while The Titans won't be able to deal with Seattle in a shootout , there is a System for this game to play The Under and it's 1/15 ( 1 over , 15 unders ). I never do this but today I 'll cite the system :
" The league is 1/15 as an away favorite of more than 3 points when they are off a win by 7 or more points in which they rushed for at least 100 more yards than their opponent. "
This alone is not NEARLY enough for me to make the game an Under Play , but it's a hint that the game could be low scoring. If it is , then Tennessee's covering chances markedly improve.
One of the most popular Service Touts is releasing his 5* NFL Game of the Year today. ( We all know by now that he is Savage's Favorite … Hint , Hint )
I'm hoping he'll come with The Seahawks but it probably will be Pittsburgh.
THE PLAYS: Expect the unexpected again this week
Top Sides: As usual , Selective Underdogs.
Tennessee , taking 7 , at home vs. Seattle
Cleveland , taking 3 , at Oakland … Oakland is just flat out miserable in this spot.
San Diego , taking 7 or 8 , at Indianapolis … we can be reasonably certain that The Chargers will be primed for maximum effort
Yesterday : New England , giving 4 , at home vs. Tampa Bay … Top Side Complete Dominator of the Year … This one was a biggie … Congrats to us on a perfect game !
Money Line Play : Cleveland with a nibble on the other 2 top sides.
Contrary Side Plays:
Dallas / Washington : Does anyone like The Redskins ? All I'm hearing is Dallas and revenge , revenge and even more Revenge for being hoodwinked by The Skins earlier this year on MNFB. With revenge as an only motive to bet a side, better dig 2 graves … and one should be reserved for your wallet. I'm looking at the home team here but only for small . If Joe Gibbs has The Skins blitzing off the bus , Bledsoe could very well be The Perfect Patsy .
Detroit + over Cincinnati … Same as KC yesterday … most are on Cincy like it's free. Just a nibble to be against Square money.
Houston + over Arizona … Seeing a few GOY's on Arizona … what a joke ! The Cards always fake out The Squares every year late in the season. Forget the idea that Houston is tanking in order to get Reggie Bush . The owners are too slow to pull off such an elaborate scheme. David Carr will probably come up big today.
Atlanta + over Chicago … especially if outs come off the 3 and go to 3 ½ - 4 . I think the ones who got beaten up today will look to Chicago for a desparation bale out side . Sunday night "Shocker " . Go Falcons !!!!
Opinions :
Jacksonville -
Philadelphia +
The Jets / Dolphins game is very tricky … the 9 looks tempting, a little too tempting. … play the Under only. This game is dead even from an angles , trends, and systems perspective.
Top Totals Plays: Rare losing day last Sunday for totals ( some tough breaks ) but an easy winner last Monday with the High on New Orleans - Atlanta , flying Over the posted total.
Pittsburgh / Minnesota Over 40
NY Jets / Miami Under 35
Cleveland / Oakland Over 30
Philadelphia / St. Louis Under 43
Yesterday: Kansas City / NT Giants Under 48 … Won
Opinions:
San Diego / Colts Over
San Francisco / Jacksonville Under
Arizona / Houston Over
Cincinnati / Detroit Over
Monday Night:
Last Thursday in " Shooting from the Hip " I sort of went off on how Brett Favre's skills have eroded.
All the guys who follow " 3 Wise Men Baseball " know by now that whenever I give one of my " Schpiels " ( Sermons ) , it's best to go the other way and load up. We laughed about it throughout the 2005 season.
I'm doing the exact same thing … I'm going to fade my sermon . I do that sometimes and more often than not, it works.
Top Side Play : Green Bay + at Baltimore ( with a small money line play as well )
( BTW , Green Bay's team trends are 20-0 and there are 3 league systems which favor The Pack to the tune of 56-11 )
Totals Opinion : Only a leaning to The Under
As Always,
Best of Luck
-Neil
It's always noon somewhere! 
U-C-O-N-N = Uconn! Uconn! Uconn!
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