FINISHED THE COLLEGE SEASON OFF ON A GREAT NOTE WINNING THE LAST TWO WEEKS AND FINISHING OFF A PROFITABLE ALBIET SMALL REGUALR SEASON IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 24 WEEKS (83.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
Opinion: ARKANSAS STATE +17
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ARKANSAS ST (6 - 5) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (6 - 5)
Week 15 Tuesday, 12/20/2005 8:00 PM
New Orleans Bowl - Cajun Field - Lafayette, LA
vs
History
This game marks the ninth meeting against the Indians with the Golden Eagles leading the series, 6-2. The two teams played for four-straight years from 1960-63 and again for four-consecutive years from 1977-80. Arkansas State won the first meeting in 1960, 14-13, before Southern Miss reeled off three-straight wins, 20-0 (1961), 20-7 (1962) and 25-0 (1963). The Golden Eagles also won three of the four games played from 1977-80, dropping the first game, 14-10 in 1977 and then winning, 21-6 (1978), 14-6 (1979) and 35-0 (1980).
Southern Miss (6-5, 5-3 in C-USA)
Last Bowl: 2004 New Orleans (Southern Miss 31, North Texas 10)
Arkansas State (6-5, 5-2 in Sun Belt)
Last Bowl: First Division I-A Bowl Appearance
Southern Miss Leaders:
Passing: Dustin Almond, 199-362, 2,607 yards, 21 TDs
Rushing: Larry Thomas, 638 yards, 4 TDs
Receiving: Josh Barnes, 30 rec., 398 yards, 5 Tds
Arkansas State Leaders:
Passing: Nick Noce, 146-263, 1,839 yards, 11 TDs
Rushing: Antonio Warren, 1,046 yards, 6 TDs
Receiving: Levi Dejhonette, 42 rec., 505 yards, 1 TD
Southern Mississippi
Having assured itself of a 12th-consecutive season at .500 or better, Southern Miss will be making its eighth bowl appearance in nine years, playing in the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight year. Senior Kevis Coley is the third Southern Miss linebacker in as many years to be named C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, following current Atlanta Falcon Michael Boley (2004) and current Minnesota Viking Rod Davis (2003). Southern Miss is ranked 35th nationally in passing offense (257.2 ypg), but just 107th in rushing offense (104.0). The Golden Eagles had 10 players selected All-Conference USA, including five on the first team, four on the second team and one on the third. The 10 selections mark the most for Southern Miss since it had 15 selections in 2003.
Arkansas State
ASU Head coach Steve Roberts was named Sun Belt Conference Coach of the Year after guiding a team that was picked sixth in the preseason poll to a regular season title and first bowl berth as a I-A program. Senior RB Antonio Warren rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last two years, becoming the 14th player in school history to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of the nine games he has played in this season. The Indians last bowl game was the 1970 Pecan Bowl in Arlington, Texas. Also in 1970, ASU was crowned NCAA College Division National Champion by AP and UPI. Arkansas State is 23rd in rushing (199.9 ypg), and 101st in passing (188.8)
GAME NOTES: Arkansas State is the first team other than North Texas to represent the Sun Belt Conference in the five-year old New Orleans Bowl. The Indians won a three-way tie for the regular season championship in the Sun Belt based on a head-to-head victory over Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe, which also finished 5-2 in league play, was not bowl-eligible.
Trends:
Southern Mississippi
USM was 0-4 ATS last 4 games this year, and the Golden Eagles are 0-2 ATS laying Double Digits this year.
USM head coach Bower is 6-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite away from home since 2003.
Southern Miss has beaten each of its last three Sun Belt opponents by 21 or more
Arkansas State
Arkansas State University has dropped 5 of last 7 ATS this year but is 5-2 ATS since last year as a double digit dog.
Arkansas State is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 15 or more against .600 opponents.
Sun Belt Conference & Bowl Trends
Pre-New Year's Day Double Digit favorites of -16 or more are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries.
Sun Belt teams were 7-18 ATS in non-conference games this year.
Sun Belt teams are 1-3 SU & ATS in this bowl, and 1-4 SU & ATS in bowls since ?01.
North Texas, which had clearly been a cut above the other teams in the Sun Belt in the prior three years, went 1-3 SU & ATS in 4 straight trips to this bowl, with all three losses by double digits, the last a 21-point defeat at the hands of Southern Miss.
Analysis
The 17 point spread in this game is one of the largest in bowl history and shocking considering that the Golden Eagles have only won three Division I-A games by more than 17 points (33-7 at East Carolina, 52-31 at home against Central Florida; and 26-7 against Tulane in their home finale) this season. Southern Miss also had victories this season against UAB, Marshall and Division I-AA McNeese State. Meanwhile, their opponent, Arkansas State gets a rare chance to show case their program, and while they do not bring a lot of talent to the table, they do bring effort, and play very hard. Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt in the New Orleans Bowl this season, the first time any team other than North Texas has done so. North Texas had qualified for this bowl four times, going 1-3 straight up and against the spread during that span. North Texas was an underdog in each game, getting between four and 11 points in those games. North Texas also went unbeaten in the Sun Belt each year. Arkansas State played three Division I-A teams outside the Sun Belt this season and went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS (ASU lost 44-17 at Missouri, 20-10 at Oklahoma State and 38-10 at Army). The Indians also came up very short on the road, with their only SU road win against depleted former conference #1 North Texas, which didn’t win a home game SU this year. It should be noted that the other Sun Belt teams suffered the same fate outside of the league this year, as there were no upsets of any significance. Florida Atlantic was 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, North Texas was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS, Louisiana-Lafayette was 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS, Troy was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and Louisiana-Monroe was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Middle Tennessee State was the only team to win a game outside of the league, a 17-15 upset of Vanderbilt.
Fundamentally, ASU appears to possess the more dominant running game, averaging 5 yards per carry, but they might have trouble against a Southern Miss squad that allowed 4 yards per carry against much stronger competition. On defense, the Indians must contain experienced veteran USM QB Dustin Almond, who had 21 TD passes against 12 picks this season. This will be Almond’s fourth bowl game, his third start bowl start. Coaching wise, ASU head coach Steve Roberts never has prepared for a bowl, even as an assistant, while across the sidelines he will be glaring at USM head coach Jeff Bower who coached his first bowl for USM in 1990, Brett Favre was his QB.
The fact that Arkansas State is even in a bowl game, or any representative from the Sun Belt conference is a travesty especially considering that there are still 40 teams or so out there that could easily beat the Indians at any time. Since 2000, when the Sun Belt conference officially became important in our eyes (became lined), Sun Belt teams have gone 1-74 SU and 27-48 ATS (36%) in regular season play against .400 or better lined teams. But how could we possibly back Southern Mississippi who has only won three games by more than 17 points in the last two years and two of those wins were against Division I-AA foes. Naturally my recommendation would be to watch something on TV other then this game, ANYTHING! I am not betting this game, but if I had too, you simply cannot ignore the trends all of which appear to be in Arkansas State’s favor. Although Southern Miss has beaten their last three Sun Belt opponents by 21 or more, they certainly do not carry any momentum in this game as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games this year, and are 0-2 ATS laying Double Digits this year. Meanwhile, Arkansas State checks in at 5-2 ATS since last year as a double digit dog and 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 15 or more against .600 opponents. That fact that Pre-New Year's Day Double Digit favorites of -16 or more are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries cements it for those who really need to bet this disaster.
Forecast: Arkansas State 14, Southern Miss 27
SMALL OPINION SELECTION ON ARKANSAS STATE +17
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
Opinion: ARKANSAS STATE +17
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ARKANSAS ST (6 - 5) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (6 - 5)
Week 15 Tuesday, 12/20/2005 8:00 PM
New Orleans Bowl - Cajun Field - Lafayette, LA


History
This game marks the ninth meeting against the Indians with the Golden Eagles leading the series, 6-2. The two teams played for four-straight years from 1960-63 and again for four-consecutive years from 1977-80. Arkansas State won the first meeting in 1960, 14-13, before Southern Miss reeled off three-straight wins, 20-0 (1961), 20-7 (1962) and 25-0 (1963). The Golden Eagles also won three of the four games played from 1977-80, dropping the first game, 14-10 in 1977 and then winning, 21-6 (1978), 14-6 (1979) and 35-0 (1980).
Southern Miss (6-5, 5-3 in C-USA)
Last Bowl: 2004 New Orleans (Southern Miss 31, North Texas 10)
Arkansas State (6-5, 5-2 in Sun Belt)
Last Bowl: First Division I-A Bowl Appearance
Southern Miss Leaders:
Passing: Dustin Almond, 199-362, 2,607 yards, 21 TDs
Rushing: Larry Thomas, 638 yards, 4 TDs
Receiving: Josh Barnes, 30 rec., 398 yards, 5 Tds
Arkansas State Leaders:
Passing: Nick Noce, 146-263, 1,839 yards, 11 TDs
Rushing: Antonio Warren, 1,046 yards, 6 TDs
Receiving: Levi Dejhonette, 42 rec., 505 yards, 1 TD
Southern Mississippi
Having assured itself of a 12th-consecutive season at .500 or better, Southern Miss will be making its eighth bowl appearance in nine years, playing in the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight year. Senior Kevis Coley is the third Southern Miss linebacker in as many years to be named C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, following current Atlanta Falcon Michael Boley (2004) and current Minnesota Viking Rod Davis (2003). Southern Miss is ranked 35th nationally in passing offense (257.2 ypg), but just 107th in rushing offense (104.0). The Golden Eagles had 10 players selected All-Conference USA, including five on the first team, four on the second team and one on the third. The 10 selections mark the most for Southern Miss since it had 15 selections in 2003.
Arkansas State
ASU Head coach Steve Roberts was named Sun Belt Conference Coach of the Year after guiding a team that was picked sixth in the preseason poll to a regular season title and first bowl berth as a I-A program. Senior RB Antonio Warren rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last two years, becoming the 14th player in school history to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of the nine games he has played in this season. The Indians last bowl game was the 1970 Pecan Bowl in Arlington, Texas. Also in 1970, ASU was crowned NCAA College Division National Champion by AP and UPI. Arkansas State is 23rd in rushing (199.9 ypg), and 101st in passing (188.8)
GAME NOTES: Arkansas State is the first team other than North Texas to represent the Sun Belt Conference in the five-year old New Orleans Bowl. The Indians won a three-way tie for the regular season championship in the Sun Belt based on a head-to-head victory over Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe, which also finished 5-2 in league play, was not bowl-eligible.
Trends:
Southern Mississippi
USM was 0-4 ATS last 4 games this year, and the Golden Eagles are 0-2 ATS laying Double Digits this year.
USM head coach Bower is 6-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite away from home since 2003.
Southern Miss has beaten each of its last three Sun Belt opponents by 21 or more
Arkansas State
Arkansas State University has dropped 5 of last 7 ATS this year but is 5-2 ATS since last year as a double digit dog.
Arkansas State is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 15 or more against .600 opponents.
Sun Belt Conference & Bowl Trends
Pre-New Year's Day Double Digit favorites of -16 or more are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries.
Sun Belt teams were 7-18 ATS in non-conference games this year.
Sun Belt teams are 1-3 SU & ATS in this bowl, and 1-4 SU & ATS in bowls since ?01.
North Texas, which had clearly been a cut above the other teams in the Sun Belt in the prior three years, went 1-3 SU & ATS in 4 straight trips to this bowl, with all three losses by double digits, the last a 21-point defeat at the hands of Southern Miss.
Analysis
The 17 point spread in this game is one of the largest in bowl history and shocking considering that the Golden Eagles have only won three Division I-A games by more than 17 points (33-7 at East Carolina, 52-31 at home against Central Florida; and 26-7 against Tulane in their home finale) this season. Southern Miss also had victories this season against UAB, Marshall and Division I-AA McNeese State. Meanwhile, their opponent, Arkansas State gets a rare chance to show case their program, and while they do not bring a lot of talent to the table, they do bring effort, and play very hard. Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt in the New Orleans Bowl this season, the first time any team other than North Texas has done so. North Texas had qualified for this bowl four times, going 1-3 straight up and against the spread during that span. North Texas was an underdog in each game, getting between four and 11 points in those games. North Texas also went unbeaten in the Sun Belt each year. Arkansas State played three Division I-A teams outside the Sun Belt this season and went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS (ASU lost 44-17 at Missouri, 20-10 at Oklahoma State and 38-10 at Army). The Indians also came up very short on the road, with their only SU road win against depleted former conference #1 North Texas, which didn’t win a home game SU this year. It should be noted that the other Sun Belt teams suffered the same fate outside of the league this year, as there were no upsets of any significance. Florida Atlantic was 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, North Texas was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS, Louisiana-Lafayette was 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS, Troy was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and Louisiana-Monroe was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Middle Tennessee State was the only team to win a game outside of the league, a 17-15 upset of Vanderbilt.
Fundamentally, ASU appears to possess the more dominant running game, averaging 5 yards per carry, but they might have trouble against a Southern Miss squad that allowed 4 yards per carry against much stronger competition. On defense, the Indians must contain experienced veteran USM QB Dustin Almond, who had 21 TD passes against 12 picks this season. This will be Almond’s fourth bowl game, his third start bowl start. Coaching wise, ASU head coach Steve Roberts never has prepared for a bowl, even as an assistant, while across the sidelines he will be glaring at USM head coach Jeff Bower who coached his first bowl for USM in 1990, Brett Favre was his QB.
The fact that Arkansas State is even in a bowl game, or any representative from the Sun Belt conference is a travesty especially considering that there are still 40 teams or so out there that could easily beat the Indians at any time. Since 2000, when the Sun Belt conference officially became important in our eyes (became lined), Sun Belt teams have gone 1-74 SU and 27-48 ATS (36%) in regular season play against .400 or better lined teams. But how could we possibly back Southern Mississippi who has only won three games by more than 17 points in the last two years and two of those wins were against Division I-AA foes. Naturally my recommendation would be to watch something on TV other then this game, ANYTHING! I am not betting this game, but if I had too, you simply cannot ignore the trends all of which appear to be in Arkansas State’s favor. Although Southern Miss has beaten their last three Sun Belt opponents by 21 or more, they certainly do not carry any momentum in this game as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games this year, and are 0-2 ATS laying Double Digits this year. Meanwhile, Arkansas State checks in at 5-2 ATS since last year as a double digit dog and 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 15 or more against .600 opponents. That fact that Pre-New Year's Day Double Digit favorites of -16 or more are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries cements it for those who really need to bet this disaster.
Forecast: Arkansas State 14, Southern Miss 27
SMALL OPINION SELECTION ON ARKANSAS STATE +17
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