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NFL: Contrarian Views (Week 12)
November 27, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Chicago+3 (winner) +1000
Tennessee+4(winner) +1000
Cincinatti+5 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
Week 11: (2-1)+900
TOTAL 2005 RECORD: (21-13) +6700/ +6.7units
Is it the contrarian's turn?
As we stroll into week 12 of the 2005 NFL season, it is important to take note that traditionally, this time of year serves the contrarian's mind and bankroll very well. While the previous twelve weeks have certainly been disappointing from the contrarian's perspective (despite the winning record of this column), I expect that the pretty teams and attractive chalk will have a rough go of it for the rest of the year.
While Thanksgiving Day was certainly a loser for anyone that fades the public (Favorites went 4-0), the Friday after Thanksgiving gave us a glimmer of hope in our belief that the public usually has it wrong. Coming into Sunday, expect the easy bets on the flashy teams that have been working all year, will finally hit the wall.
Usually one can simply tune in to ESPN in the morning to get a good indication of the teams one should be finding value in fading. The analysts and prognosticators will go on and on about the Chicago Bears big win last week. They'll continue to stroke the teams that have stroked them back all year, and a few news ones that shocked the world over the last few weeks and earned their 'darling' tag.
As I've said repeatedly, this year has been a year for the chalk. The drunken bud drinkers in the bar, who I began this column by making fun of, have proved to be the kings of handicapping. They've won almost every week except Week 1, and they're planning to continue. It wouldn't surprise me if half the betting public out there is in the midst of a mid-life struggle, trying to decide whether to quit their jobs and just bet on football for a living. Seriously, this year has been a cake walk for people that simply bet on the best team in the match-up, regardless of the line.
In summary, I feel very lucky to have accumulated the record reflected in this column. Despite my firm contention that betting on the opposite side of the attractive team in most people's minds will no-doubt produce positive results long-term, I must admit that the only way one remained profitable in that manner, was through pure luck. If you faded the public on every side of every game this year, you got smoked. Ok, enough of the whining and self loathing, lets move on to this week's winners.
Game #1: Chicago Bears +2 ½ @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our "lock of the year" was released last week on the Chicago Bears. They were getting 3 from the flashy Carolina Panthers and thoroughly dominated them. I watched the entire game and take my word on it; Chicago didn't let the Delhomme breathe. He was throwing off his back foot the entire day, and looked scared the whole time. It is just his kind of dominant performance that will get a team talked about incessantly on the television. It is just this kind of 'outlier' result that also tends to create value.
The big win by Tampa Bay was also an 'outlier' and will likely act as a countering force to any creation of value for Tampa. However, the fact that the betting public will be bewildered at trying to figure out how Chris Sims deals with the Bears defense is sure to create a bit of value for us. This game opened Tampa Bay -3 and is now being offered at TB-3+110, which is a 20 cent swing. Expect this game to reach 2.5 today and play the Bucs.
TOP PLAY: Tampa BAY -2 ½ $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: San Diego -3 ½ @ Washington Redskins
San Diego was giving Buffalo double digits last week and managed to win by 38 points. Here you're classical offense versus defense match-up. The public, if forced to bet, will almost side with the offense, especially when that game immediately follows one in which all offensive weapons were displayed. On the other hand, Washington was beaten at home by the lowly Oakland Raiders. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why this line has moved 20 cents in the direction of San Diego. We'll go ahead be brave once again and back the grinder getting points at home. Play the +3+110 if you can't find the +3 ½ .
TOP PLAY: Washington Redskins +3 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: Pittsburgh Steelers +8 ½ @ Indianapolis Colts
Warning! Last week I had a warning next to the play against the Colts. Well, I guess I'll leave the warning up another week, because we keep going back to the woodshed for our bi-weekly Colts whooping. The record remains: every play involving the Indianapolis Colts whether on them or against them in this column in this year, has been a loss. But we believe in due theory, and hell, this column is due in a match-up involving the Colts. Once again the reasoning is the same, albeit counterintuitive. We'll take a feisty Pittsburgh team getting two scores against the hottest and possibly most over-rated team in the league. Sound familiar? It should, because I only changed the name of the team from last week's write-up. The Colts' opponents just keep getting tougher and the lines just keep getting bigger. Good luck fellow degenerates.
TOP PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers +8 ½ for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance.
November 27, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Chicago+3 (winner) +1000
Tennessee+4(winner) +1000
Cincinatti+5 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
Week 11: (2-1)+900
TOTAL 2005 RECORD: (21-13) +6700/ +6.7units
Is it the contrarian's turn?
As we stroll into week 12 of the 2005 NFL season, it is important to take note that traditionally, this time of year serves the contrarian's mind and bankroll very well. While the previous twelve weeks have certainly been disappointing from the contrarian's perspective (despite the winning record of this column), I expect that the pretty teams and attractive chalk will have a rough go of it for the rest of the year.
While Thanksgiving Day was certainly a loser for anyone that fades the public (Favorites went 4-0), the Friday after Thanksgiving gave us a glimmer of hope in our belief that the public usually has it wrong. Coming into Sunday, expect the easy bets on the flashy teams that have been working all year, will finally hit the wall.
Usually one can simply tune in to ESPN in the morning to get a good indication of the teams one should be finding value in fading. The analysts and prognosticators will go on and on about the Chicago Bears big win last week. They'll continue to stroke the teams that have stroked them back all year, and a few news ones that shocked the world over the last few weeks and earned their 'darling' tag.
As I've said repeatedly, this year has been a year for the chalk. The drunken bud drinkers in the bar, who I began this column by making fun of, have proved to be the kings of handicapping. They've won almost every week except Week 1, and they're planning to continue. It wouldn't surprise me if half the betting public out there is in the midst of a mid-life struggle, trying to decide whether to quit their jobs and just bet on football for a living. Seriously, this year has been a cake walk for people that simply bet on the best team in the match-up, regardless of the line.
In summary, I feel very lucky to have accumulated the record reflected in this column. Despite my firm contention that betting on the opposite side of the attractive team in most people's minds will no-doubt produce positive results long-term, I must admit that the only way one remained profitable in that manner, was through pure luck. If you faded the public on every side of every game this year, you got smoked. Ok, enough of the whining and self loathing, lets move on to this week's winners.
Game #1: Chicago Bears +2 ½ @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our "lock of the year" was released last week on the Chicago Bears. They were getting 3 from the flashy Carolina Panthers and thoroughly dominated them. I watched the entire game and take my word on it; Chicago didn't let the Delhomme breathe. He was throwing off his back foot the entire day, and looked scared the whole time. It is just his kind of dominant performance that will get a team talked about incessantly on the television. It is just this kind of 'outlier' result that also tends to create value.
The big win by Tampa Bay was also an 'outlier' and will likely act as a countering force to any creation of value for Tampa. However, the fact that the betting public will be bewildered at trying to figure out how Chris Sims deals with the Bears defense is sure to create a bit of value for us. This game opened Tampa Bay -3 and is now being offered at TB-3+110, which is a 20 cent swing. Expect this game to reach 2.5 today and play the Bucs.
TOP PLAY: Tampa BAY -2 ½ $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: San Diego -3 ½ @ Washington Redskins
San Diego was giving Buffalo double digits last week and managed to win by 38 points. Here you're classical offense versus defense match-up. The public, if forced to bet, will almost side with the offense, especially when that game immediately follows one in which all offensive weapons were displayed. On the other hand, Washington was beaten at home by the lowly Oakland Raiders. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why this line has moved 20 cents in the direction of San Diego. We'll go ahead be brave once again and back the grinder getting points at home. Play the +3+110 if you can't find the +3 ½ .
TOP PLAY: Washington Redskins +3 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: Pittsburgh Steelers +8 ½ @ Indianapolis Colts
Warning! Last week I had a warning next to the play against the Colts. Well, I guess I'll leave the warning up another week, because we keep going back to the woodshed for our bi-weekly Colts whooping. The record remains: every play involving the Indianapolis Colts whether on them or against them in this column in this year, has been a loss. But we believe in due theory, and hell, this column is due in a match-up involving the Colts. Once again the reasoning is the same, albeit counterintuitive. We'll take a feisty Pittsburgh team getting two scores against the hottest and possibly most over-rated team in the league. Sound familiar? It should, because I only changed the name of the team from last week's write-up. The Colts' opponents just keep getting tougher and the lines just keep getting bigger. Good luck fellow degenerates.
TOP PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers +8 ½ for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance.
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