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BOOOOM YET ANOTHER WINNING DAY YESTERDAY HITTING THE TOP TWO PLAYS WITH TENNESSEE FINALLY COMING BACK TO FORM DOMINATING KENTUCKY, AND TULANE COVERING THE NICE +21.5 SPREAD. ALSO HAD EASY WINS WITH KANSAS, UCONN/S. FLORIDA UNDER AND HOUSTON. I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 24 WEEKS (83.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
4* 0 WINS 1 LOSS (0%)
3* 6 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 10 WINS 5 LOSSES (66.6%)
1* 18 WINS 21 LOSSES (46.2%)
Opinions: 3 WINS 4 LOSEES (42.8%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
WEEK #10: 5 WINS 3 LOSSES (-.2 UNITS)
WEEK #11: 5 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.8 UNITS)
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SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
2* WASHINGTON +4
1* BUFFALO +4
1* CLEVELAND +4
1* BALTIMORE +9.5
1* TENNESSEE -8
Opinion: Cleveland/Minnesota Under 39
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SAN DIEGO (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (5 - 5)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Chargers (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) continued walking the line (to the playoffs) Sunday when they ripped the Bills 48-10 behind an outstanding performance by Drew Brees who threw for 339 yards and a season-high four touchdowns. Brees completed 17 of his first 18 passes and was 28-of-33 overall, hitting eight different receivers. RB LaDanian Tomlinson, had 67 yards on 19 carries, and caught three passes for 22 yards. The Chargers sacked J.P. Losman six times and held the Bills to just 202 total offensive yards. Meanwhile, Washington (5-5 SU, ATS) dropped to 2 games behind the conference leaders when they lost to Oakland 16-13. A 19-yard field goal with 1:08 remaining was the difference. Kerry Collins' 49-yard touchdown pass to Jerry Porter was the game's only offensive touchdown as the Raiders rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit.
You have to feel bad for the Chargers in this scheduling nightmare. For some reason or another the Chargers now have to again make the long journey from the West Coast for the third time this year. To make matters worse they have also drawn an early start time making this game at 10 a.m. their time. Even more odd is the line that Mr. Odds maker set...Washington +4! Just one month ago, San Diego traveled to the east coast to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. At that time, the Chargers were a four and a half point underdog. Here, one month later, they are favored by four against Washington. Are the Eagles really a better team then the Redskins...no fucking way! The only explanation for this deviation is the fact that the book maker sets the line based upon public perception not actual strength of a team. Given the fact that the betting public loves offense and San Diego possesses one of the best in the league, that goes a long way to explaining why a 6-4 Chargers squad is favored on the road against a 5-5 Skins team. The point spread value here lies with the Redskins.
Early betting indicators show that the San Diego side, which currently is taking on 84% of the bets being placed is the public fade for this week. Granted the Redskins have won just two of their past seven games, but be aware they are extremely tough at home where they are 4-1. Situationally, this is just a horrible spot for the Chargers, off their easy home win against Buffalo and have division rival Oakland up next. On the other hand, this game is huge for Washington. The Redskins trail the Giants and Cowboys by two games in the NFC East. They can’t afford to slip any more behind. After this match-up, the Redskins also have to play two straight road games so they will be primed and focused for this week.
Fundamentally, Washington should be able to pick apart the Chargers shaky secondary, which ranks third from the bottom in pass defense going into Week 11. So look for QB Mark Brunell to take advantage of the porous secondary with big-play wide out Santana Moss and underrated tight end Chris Cooley. The Chargers will in all likelihood be without tight end Antonio Gates, who suffered a foot injury against the Bills. That’s a huge potential loss since Gates is the key to San Diego’s passing game as he’s been the No. 1 target of Drew Brees. The Redskins can play enough defense to contain LD and, without Antonio Gates, the Charger passing game isn't as dynamic. Granted the momentum edge favors Chargers but the Redskins have been playing good football despite several close losses. In two of their losses the Skins out rushed Oakland 108-50 and Tampa Bay by 185-61. How can we not back a Home dog, in a must win situation, with the better defense. Chargers get Skinned!
Forecast: SD Chargers 17, WAS Redskins 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON WASHINGTON +4
CAROLINA (7 - 3) at BUFFALO (4 - 6)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Overrated Carolina (7-3) hasn't played many tough teams, and that appeared to catch up with them Sunday in a 13-3 loss at Chicago. The loss also ended Carolina's reign alone atop the NFC South standings as Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta. Chicago ran through the Panthers for 122 rushing yards, and QB Jake Delhomme has not had a good season, with 15 TDs and 12 picks. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are happy to be home after their last loss, a 48-10 beating on the road against the San Diego Chargers. Buffalo could get nothing going on offense all day long as J.P. Losman was sacked six times and threw for only 168 yards. The Bills have their own power running back to throw at Carolina in Willis McGahee.
Betting rule #16:Anytime you have a warm-weather team such as Carolina laying points on a different surface in possible winter conditions you have to think underdog first. Now granted, Buffalo is off a terrible schedule spot, getting smoked 48-10 after the cross country trip to San Diego. But pay no attention to that drubbing. Remember, when New England Patriots missed the spread by –29 points to San Diego on their home field and came back to win and cover at Atlanta the next week. I expect a similar result to happen here this week. Buffalo is 0-5 on the road, but stand a solid 4-1 SU/ATS at home where they only allow a meager 13 points per game! In fact, in their last 11 home games, the Bills have picked up nine wins and covers, including 4-1 both ways this season. I think overall the Panthers are probably the superior club, but they are just 9-18 ATS when laying points, and have key division games against the Falcons and Buccaneers at home the following two weeks. The Panthers are also a pour 1-8 ATS as non-division road chalk. This weeks situational advantage clearly favors the Bills this week. There are only five games to go and New England Patriots are only two games in front of the Bills in the AFC East so this game mounts to a “must win” game for the Bills. Meanwhile, four of Carolina’s next five games are division games and that’s when their “time” can come, the hard way. Take the Home dog in the Cold weather! with his mobility. BUFFALO 21-14.
Forecast: CAR Panthers 17, BUF Bills 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO +4
CLEVELAND (4 - 6) at MINNESOTA (5 - 5)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Browns played their game of the year Sunday when they scored a 22-0 rout of the Miami Dolphins. Reuben Droughns scored on a 75-yard run on Cleveland's first play and finished with 166 yards to pace the Browns. Cleveland's defense held Miami to 55 yards passing and forced Dolphins coach Nick Saban to use an injured Gus Frerotte. Trent Dilfer finished 11-of-18 for 137 yards and threw a 6-yard TD pass to fullback Terrelle Smith as the Browns ended a six-game losing streak against Miami. Cleveland had over 375 of offense while the Fins managed just 194 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings (5-5 SU, ATS) crept back to .500 on Monday when they defeated the Packers on a game ending Paul Edinger field goal 20-17. Missing an injured Daunte Culpepper, rocked by lewd allegations from a boating trip and given up for dead a month ago, Minnesota is now 5-5 and still in the hunt for the playoffs after winning three in a row. Brad Johnson has been effective and threw for 196 yards and running back Mewelde Moore rushed for 122 yards on 22 carries as the Vikings out gained Green Bay 331 yards to 236.
Well as much as I would like to back the Vikings this week I just cannot lay points on a team that is off a off a short week and a last-second emotional win vs. a division rival. Mediocre teams like the Vikings have big problems in such situations. Cleveland’s defense should have little trouble preparing for the Vikings as its apparent from every game he’s played, that QB Brad Johnson can't throw more than 20 yards down field. As we all saw on Monday night, the Vikings can't seem to run much up the middle or between the tackles and don’t expect them to have much success against the Browns either as they won't be able to run outside against the 3-4 defense that Cleveland plays. Naturally, if you can't run the football, Minnesota will not be able sustain an offensive attack. On the flip side, Cleveland can run, but they can't throw, which is why their games go farther under this season than anyone else's in the NFL, by about -6 points per game. Look for an extremely hard fought, low scoring game and a Browns cover.
Forecast: MIN Vikings 14, CLE Browns 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CLEVELAND +4
OPINION SELECTION ON CLEVELAND/MINNESOTA UNDER 39
BALTIMORE (3 - 7) at CINCINNATI (7 - 3)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Can anybody believe that the Bengal’s have already begun selling playoff tickets. That’s pretty cocky considering the Bengals last made the post-season in 1990. I think their ticket people may want to hold off until at least after this match-up, because the Ravens are capable of pulling the upset. The Ravens (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) are off a huge victory upsetting the Steelers at home, 16-13. As soon as the Ravens' four-game losing streak had ended, players threw their arms up high and stormed the middle of the M&T Bank Stadium field. The win was in large part due to the Ravens offense which check in 2nd in the league! Meanwhile, Cincinnati (7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) is off a big downer, losing a showdown at home to the unbeaten Colts, 45-37. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns! The Steelers are 3-1 in the division. The Bengals are 2-1, and their next three games in a row are against AFC North teams: Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and home against Cleveland. Division record is the second playoff tiebreaker for teams with the same record, after head-to-head competition.
The Bengal’s have become a public team with its exciting offense featuring Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson and with three-quarters of the public on them this week is no different. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves in regards to the Bengals. Their schedule hasn’t been very difficult. They are not that good to be laying so many points here in this division match-up against a proud Ravens defense that ranked No. 1 in the AFC through the first 10 weeks. So how delicious is the 9.5 points the book is giving us this week? Yummy considering that the Ravens have covered 12 of the past 17 in this series. The Ravens also possess a 16-6-2 ATS mark in November games achieved with better teams, which speaks to the success that Billick has had in motivating his team in what is a real grind month in the NFL. Baltimore will do all that they can to shorten this game and it is worth noting that the Bengals haven’t beaten an opponent at home by more than 7 points since September and they failed to get those margins in scheduling scenarios far less distracting than this one. Look for the leagues #2 defense too keep this game close. It’s an added bonus if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are able to play. Cincinnati’s 1-4 ATS home record cements it.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 21, BAL Ravens 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BALTIMORE +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at TENNESSEE (2 - 8)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
This game could very well determine who receives the No. 1 pick overall in the 2006 NFL Draft. A failed 2-point conversion with 28 seconds left let the 49ers (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) on the short end of 27-25 loss to Seattle on Sunday. Brandon Lloyd had seven catches for 119 yards for the 49ers (2-8), who lost for the eighth time in nine games despite their offense's most encouraging performance since the season opener. Ken Dorsey was solid and even exciting, going 18-of-29 without an interception after the 49ers' fourth starting quarterback change in six games. Dorsey replaced Cody Pickett, who completed just one pass in last week's loss at Chicago. As if it could not possibly any worse for the Niners, Defensive lineman Bryant Young could miss the rest of the San Francisco 49ers' season after tearing a ligament. Tennessee didn't fare much better in their 31-28 loss to Jacksonville. Despite the fact that the Titans had the lead in last week's game against Jacksonville, Tennessee's defense couldn't stop Byron Leftwich. He had one of his best throwing days of the season, netting 258 yards and three touchdown passes. The Titans had some success throwing the ball with the return of wide receiver Drew Bennett, but it was not enough to overcome the Jaguars. After a tremendous defensive showing in the first half, the Titans allowed Jacksonville to score on four of five possessions in the second half. Each drive was more than 75 yards.
All of you who follow my plays are well aware that we have been on the right side of ever S.F. cover this year, but rest assured its time to fade them this week! The Forty Niners own the distinction of possessing the league's worst ranked offense and the league's worst ranked defense and prior to last week's win by Seattle, the Niners were held under the 200 yard barrier in five of their previous six games. Home teams have feasted on the 49ers. San Francisco is 0-4 on the road this season. The 49ers have been outscored, 142-43, in these four road games for an average losing margin of 25 points. This isn’t anything new since San Francisco has won just two of its last 22 away contest. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been in nearly everyone of their games. The Titans are 31-3 ATS in SU victories when playing off BB losses. Furthermore, Tennessee isalso 27-14-2 ATS against the NFC, including 6-1 ATS when his team is off BB losses. You know things are bad with the 49ers when kicker Joe Nedney is their most valuable player. Its lot of chalk to eat but we really do not have any other choice! Lay it.
b]Forecast: TEN Titans 31, SF 49ers 10[/b]
PLAY 1* UNIT ON TENNESSEE -8
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
4* 0 WINS 1 LOSS (0%)
3* 6 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 10 WINS 5 LOSSES (66.6%)
1* 18 WINS 21 LOSSES (46.2%)
Opinions: 3 WINS 4 LOSEES (42.8%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
WEEK #10: 5 WINS 3 LOSSES (-.2 UNITS)
WEEK #11: 5 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.8 UNITS)
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS:
2* WASHINGTON +4
1* BUFFALO +4
1* CLEVELAND +4
1* BALTIMORE +9.5
1* TENNESSEE -8
Opinion: Cleveland/Minnesota Under 39
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SAN DIEGO (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (5 - 5)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Chargers (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) continued walking the line (to the playoffs) Sunday when they ripped the Bills 48-10 behind an outstanding performance by Drew Brees who threw for 339 yards and a season-high four touchdowns. Brees completed 17 of his first 18 passes and was 28-of-33 overall, hitting eight different receivers. RB LaDanian Tomlinson, had 67 yards on 19 carries, and caught three passes for 22 yards. The Chargers sacked J.P. Losman six times and held the Bills to just 202 total offensive yards. Meanwhile, Washington (5-5 SU, ATS) dropped to 2 games behind the conference leaders when they lost to Oakland 16-13. A 19-yard field goal with 1:08 remaining was the difference. Kerry Collins' 49-yard touchdown pass to Jerry Porter was the game's only offensive touchdown as the Raiders rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit.
You have to feel bad for the Chargers in this scheduling nightmare. For some reason or another the Chargers now have to again make the long journey from the West Coast for the third time this year. To make matters worse they have also drawn an early start time making this game at 10 a.m. their time. Even more odd is the line that Mr. Odds maker set...Washington +4! Just one month ago, San Diego traveled to the east coast to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. At that time, the Chargers were a four and a half point underdog. Here, one month later, they are favored by four against Washington. Are the Eagles really a better team then the Redskins...no fucking way! The only explanation for this deviation is the fact that the book maker sets the line based upon public perception not actual strength of a team. Given the fact that the betting public loves offense and San Diego possesses one of the best in the league, that goes a long way to explaining why a 6-4 Chargers squad is favored on the road against a 5-5 Skins team. The point spread value here lies with the Redskins.
Early betting indicators show that the San Diego side, which currently is taking on 84% of the bets being placed is the public fade for this week. Granted the Redskins have won just two of their past seven games, but be aware they are extremely tough at home where they are 4-1. Situationally, this is just a horrible spot for the Chargers, off their easy home win against Buffalo and have division rival Oakland up next. On the other hand, this game is huge for Washington. The Redskins trail the Giants and Cowboys by two games in the NFC East. They can’t afford to slip any more behind. After this match-up, the Redskins also have to play two straight road games so they will be primed and focused for this week.
Fundamentally, Washington should be able to pick apart the Chargers shaky secondary, which ranks third from the bottom in pass defense going into Week 11. So look for QB Mark Brunell to take advantage of the porous secondary with big-play wide out Santana Moss and underrated tight end Chris Cooley. The Chargers will in all likelihood be without tight end Antonio Gates, who suffered a foot injury against the Bills. That’s a huge potential loss since Gates is the key to San Diego’s passing game as he’s been the No. 1 target of Drew Brees. The Redskins can play enough defense to contain LD and, without Antonio Gates, the Charger passing game isn't as dynamic. Granted the momentum edge favors Chargers but the Redskins have been playing good football despite several close losses. In two of their losses the Skins out rushed Oakland 108-50 and Tampa Bay by 185-61. How can we not back a Home dog, in a must win situation, with the better defense. Chargers get Skinned!
Forecast: SD Chargers 17, WAS Redskins 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON WASHINGTON +4
CAROLINA (7 - 3) at BUFFALO (4 - 6)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Overrated Carolina (7-3) hasn't played many tough teams, and that appeared to catch up with them Sunday in a 13-3 loss at Chicago. The loss also ended Carolina's reign alone atop the NFC South standings as Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta. Chicago ran through the Panthers for 122 rushing yards, and QB Jake Delhomme has not had a good season, with 15 TDs and 12 picks. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are happy to be home after their last loss, a 48-10 beating on the road against the San Diego Chargers. Buffalo could get nothing going on offense all day long as J.P. Losman was sacked six times and threw for only 168 yards. The Bills have their own power running back to throw at Carolina in Willis McGahee.
Betting rule #16:Anytime you have a warm-weather team such as Carolina laying points on a different surface in possible winter conditions you have to think underdog first. Now granted, Buffalo is off a terrible schedule spot, getting smoked 48-10 after the cross country trip to San Diego. But pay no attention to that drubbing. Remember, when New England Patriots missed the spread by –29 points to San Diego on their home field and came back to win and cover at Atlanta the next week. I expect a similar result to happen here this week. Buffalo is 0-5 on the road, but stand a solid 4-1 SU/ATS at home where they only allow a meager 13 points per game! In fact, in their last 11 home games, the Bills have picked up nine wins and covers, including 4-1 both ways this season. I think overall the Panthers are probably the superior club, but they are just 9-18 ATS when laying points, and have key division games against the Falcons and Buccaneers at home the following two weeks. The Panthers are also a pour 1-8 ATS as non-division road chalk. This weeks situational advantage clearly favors the Bills this week. There are only five games to go and New England Patriots are only two games in front of the Bills in the AFC East so this game mounts to a “must win” game for the Bills. Meanwhile, four of Carolina’s next five games are division games and that’s when their “time” can come, the hard way. Take the Home dog in the Cold weather! with his mobility. BUFFALO 21-14.
Forecast: CAR Panthers 17, BUF Bills 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO +4
CLEVELAND (4 - 6) at MINNESOTA (5 - 5)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Browns played their game of the year Sunday when they scored a 22-0 rout of the Miami Dolphins. Reuben Droughns scored on a 75-yard run on Cleveland's first play and finished with 166 yards to pace the Browns. Cleveland's defense held Miami to 55 yards passing and forced Dolphins coach Nick Saban to use an injured Gus Frerotte. Trent Dilfer finished 11-of-18 for 137 yards and threw a 6-yard TD pass to fullback Terrelle Smith as the Browns ended a six-game losing streak against Miami. Cleveland had over 375 of offense while the Fins managed just 194 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings (5-5 SU, ATS) crept back to .500 on Monday when they defeated the Packers on a game ending Paul Edinger field goal 20-17. Missing an injured Daunte Culpepper, rocked by lewd allegations from a boating trip and given up for dead a month ago, Minnesota is now 5-5 and still in the hunt for the playoffs after winning three in a row. Brad Johnson has been effective and threw for 196 yards and running back Mewelde Moore rushed for 122 yards on 22 carries as the Vikings out gained Green Bay 331 yards to 236.
Well as much as I would like to back the Vikings this week I just cannot lay points on a team that is off a off a short week and a last-second emotional win vs. a division rival. Mediocre teams like the Vikings have big problems in such situations. Cleveland’s defense should have little trouble preparing for the Vikings as its apparent from every game he’s played, that QB Brad Johnson can't throw more than 20 yards down field. As we all saw on Monday night, the Vikings can't seem to run much up the middle or between the tackles and don’t expect them to have much success against the Browns either as they won't be able to run outside against the 3-4 defense that Cleveland plays. Naturally, if you can't run the football, Minnesota will not be able sustain an offensive attack. On the flip side, Cleveland can run, but they can't throw, which is why their games go farther under this season than anyone else's in the NFL, by about -6 points per game. Look for an extremely hard fought, low scoring game and a Browns cover.
Forecast: MIN Vikings 14, CLE Browns 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CLEVELAND +4
OPINION SELECTION ON CLEVELAND/MINNESOTA UNDER 39
BALTIMORE (3 - 7) at CINCINNATI (7 - 3)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Can anybody believe that the Bengal’s have already begun selling playoff tickets. That’s pretty cocky considering the Bengals last made the post-season in 1990. I think their ticket people may want to hold off until at least after this match-up, because the Ravens are capable of pulling the upset. The Ravens (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) are off a huge victory upsetting the Steelers at home, 16-13. As soon as the Ravens' four-game losing streak had ended, players threw their arms up high and stormed the middle of the M&T Bank Stadium field. The win was in large part due to the Ravens offense which check in 2nd in the league! Meanwhile, Cincinnati (7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) is off a big downer, losing a showdown at home to the unbeaten Colts, 45-37. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns! The Steelers are 3-1 in the division. The Bengals are 2-1, and their next three games in a row are against AFC North teams: Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and home against Cleveland. Division record is the second playoff tiebreaker for teams with the same record, after head-to-head competition.
The Bengal’s have become a public team with its exciting offense featuring Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson and with three-quarters of the public on them this week is no different. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves in regards to the Bengals. Their schedule hasn’t been very difficult. They are not that good to be laying so many points here in this division match-up against a proud Ravens defense that ranked No. 1 in the AFC through the first 10 weeks. So how delicious is the 9.5 points the book is giving us this week? Yummy considering that the Ravens have covered 12 of the past 17 in this series. The Ravens also possess a 16-6-2 ATS mark in November games achieved with better teams, which speaks to the success that Billick has had in motivating his team in what is a real grind month in the NFL. Baltimore will do all that they can to shorten this game and it is worth noting that the Bengals haven’t beaten an opponent at home by more than 7 points since September and they failed to get those margins in scheduling scenarios far less distracting than this one. Look for the leagues #2 defense too keep this game close. It’s an added bonus if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are able to play. Cincinnati’s 1-4 ATS home record cements it.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 21, BAL Ravens 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BALTIMORE +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at TENNESSEE (2 - 8)
Week 12 Sunday, 11/27/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
This game could very well determine who receives the No. 1 pick overall in the 2006 NFL Draft. A failed 2-point conversion with 28 seconds left let the 49ers (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) on the short end of 27-25 loss to Seattle on Sunday. Brandon Lloyd had seven catches for 119 yards for the 49ers (2-8), who lost for the eighth time in nine games despite their offense's most encouraging performance since the season opener. Ken Dorsey was solid and even exciting, going 18-of-29 without an interception after the 49ers' fourth starting quarterback change in six games. Dorsey replaced Cody Pickett, who completed just one pass in last week's loss at Chicago. As if it could not possibly any worse for the Niners, Defensive lineman Bryant Young could miss the rest of the San Francisco 49ers' season after tearing a ligament. Tennessee didn't fare much better in their 31-28 loss to Jacksonville. Despite the fact that the Titans had the lead in last week's game against Jacksonville, Tennessee's defense couldn't stop Byron Leftwich. He had one of his best throwing days of the season, netting 258 yards and three touchdown passes. The Titans had some success throwing the ball with the return of wide receiver Drew Bennett, but it was not enough to overcome the Jaguars. After a tremendous defensive showing in the first half, the Titans allowed Jacksonville to score on four of five possessions in the second half. Each drive was more than 75 yards.
All of you who follow my plays are well aware that we have been on the right side of ever S.F. cover this year, but rest assured its time to fade them this week! The Forty Niners own the distinction of possessing the league's worst ranked offense and the league's worst ranked defense and prior to last week's win by Seattle, the Niners were held under the 200 yard barrier in five of their previous six games. Home teams have feasted on the 49ers. San Francisco is 0-4 on the road this season. The 49ers have been outscored, 142-43, in these four road games for an average losing margin of 25 points. This isn’t anything new since San Francisco has won just two of its last 22 away contest. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been in nearly everyone of their games. The Titans are 31-3 ATS in SU victories when playing off BB losses. Furthermore, Tennessee isalso 27-14-2 ATS against the NFC, including 6-1 ATS when his team is off BB losses. You know things are bad with the 49ers when kicker Joe Nedney is their most valuable player. Its lot of chalk to eat but we really do not have any other choice! Lay it.
b]Forecast: TEN Titans 31, SF 49ers 10[/b]
PLAY 1* UNIT ON TENNESSEE -8
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