Thurs Chalk

[spreadman]

4-0 What are the books going to do .. Im about out of cash.
Will it continue today?:angryfire :angryfire

[spreadman]

The Chargers have been taking sportsbooks to the cleaners. (AP)
Public burning books with favorites

By Stephen Nover
Wed, Nov 23, 2005


It’s time to dispel the myth that the betting public can’t beat pro football.

They not only can, they’ve been doing it for two years now.

“The football season has been poor, especially lately,” says Jeff Sherman, sportsbook manager at the Las Vegas Hilton. “We are slightly on the negative side of the hold percentage barometer for the season thus far.”

Taking advantage of the Information Age, recreational gamblers are more informed than ever. Bookmakers say recreational bettors tend to play more favorites. Oddsmakers say they shade favorites more often than underdogs.

But when you have a season when favorites are running hot, the betting public does well. It’s been happening this year with favorites going 88-68-4 against the spread (56 percent) going into the Thanksgiving games.

“The NFL picture has not been good at all (for bookmakers) the last two years,” says Pete Korner, head oddsmaker for Sports Club, a Las Vegas oddsmaking firm, and former long-time office manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Making it worse for the house is that popular teams are doing outstanding against the number. The Colts, for instance, are 7-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 6-3-1 against the number and the Broncos are 7-2-1 against the line. The Chargers, who became a public team last season, are 6-3-1 against the spread after going an NFL-best 13-2-2 against the number last year.

That gives San Diego a two-year pointspread mark of 19-5-1 (79 percent).

“It seems the public teams that are commanding money are consistently beating up the poorer teams,” Sherman says.

Many recreational gamblers have also fared well on parlays and teasers, because of favorites doing so well. The Stardust Hotel already has had to pay off around half a million dollars on several parlay cards where the person hit 15 out of 15.

“All the favorites are falling in the teaser zone,” Korner says. “It’s one of those situations where the pendulum has fallen the player’s way.”

It’s rare when favorites end up with a better pointspread record than underdogs. Usually it’s close to 50-50. According to handicapper and author Andy Iskoe, the last time favorites had a profitable year was 1998 when they went 120-106-12.

“Favorites covering are a cyclical thing,” Iskoe says. “I am not sure why this is other than the cyclical nature of the NFL. The line still comes into play only about 15-17 percent of the time. That is true again this season. It’s just that fewer underdogs are winning outright this season.

“Spreads are in line with past seasons. Favorites, on average, are being asked to lay about 5.2 points when over the past few seasons the number has been around 5.4 points.”

Scheduling dynamics and plain bad luck have hurt the house. The public, to their credit, has been on the underdog at the right time more often than not.

There isn’t as much parity this season in the NFL either. The gap has grown between some of better and worse teams. The Texans, 49ers, Cardinals, Ravens and Jets are a combined 12-38 straight up and 17-33 against the spread. A bookmaker probably couldn’t get an average recreational bettor to even look at those clubs even if they promised no vigorish.

So, what can bookmakers do? If they shade the line too high for the favorite, you know professional gamblers are going to swoop in like they did this past Sunday taking the Cardinals against the dysfunctional Rams.

Korner’s advice for bookies is to stay the course. Keep shading the favorites, but don’t go crazy.

“You have to keep taking the action,” Korner said. “But I tell my clients to keep the favorites high and the totals high. You have to prepare for those many favorite and over parlays.”

Bookmakers regard Thanksgiving week as one of the most nerve-wracking times of the year, especially in Vegas where so many tourists are visiting. If a lot of favorites hit again this week, the books are doomed for heavy losses.

Old-time Las Vegas bookmakers still shiver recalling Thanksgiving week in 1992 when favorites covered 22 of 26 college and NFL games. Oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough, president of Las Vegas Sports Consultants at the time, estimated Nevada books lost $2 million just on parlay card betting that weekend.

This is already shaping up to be a stressful week for bookmakers with eight NFL games falling in the three-to-four-point range.