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Spear-it Weekend Warrior Plays
An NFL play that you might want to get in early. I wish to thank Shorty, RJ, Wayne and Homer for some nice winning plays recently.
NFL- Top plays Teased.
New England Patriots +9 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
(177) Chicago Bears vs. (178) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 38½ Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
1) Last November, the Patriots came into Arrowhead Stadium and left with a 27-19 victory. Tom Brady threw for 315 yards and a touchdown, Deion Branch caught six passes for 105 yards and Corey Dillon rushed for 98 yards and two scores.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick succeeded in stopping Kansas City's vaunted running game. The Chiefs rushed for just 64 yards, but Trent Green threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns - both to Eddie Kennison.
Priest Holmes did not play in last year's game against the Patriots and will not play this time as well due to head and neck injuries. But Larry Johnson proved he is ready to take over as the feature back, rushing for a franchise-record 211 yards in the Chiefs' 45-17 win at Houston last week.
However, the Texans own the worst record in the league at 1-9. Kansas City's next four opponents - New England, Denver, Dallas and the New York Giants - are first-place teams. After that, the Chiefs finish with home games against San Diego, which won the AFC West last season, and Cincinnati, which is tied with Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North.
The Patriots have played the last two games without Dillon, who has been bothered a groin injury. Fullbacks Heath Evans and Patrick Pass combined for 127 yards on 29 carries in a 24-17 win over New Orleans last week.
Brady threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns last week and leads the NFL with 2,782 passing yards.
Patriots linebackers Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi combined for 21 tackles in last week's win. Vrabel also caught a touchdown pass after lining up as a tight end.
Seeking its third straight AFC East title, New England has a two-game lead over Buffalo.
The Chiefs trail first-place Denver by two games in the AFC West and will host the Broncos next week.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs right end Jared Allen, who has seven sacks this season, lines up against rookie left tackle Nick Kazcur.
Patriots have won the last three meetings.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 28.1, OPPONENT 16.4
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 27.1, OPPONENT 17.0
NEW ENGLAND is 37-13 ATS (+22.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 25.2, OPPONENT 17.9
NEW ENGLAND is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.5, OPPONENT 17.7
In this game, New England must keep KC under 22 points or the ATS flips an advantage to KC. New England is hurting big but Brady has been very good against the lower rung teams- has losses to Indy, San Diego and Denver. Can't see them losing here either and will take the points.
2) The Bucs have scored 36 and 30 points in winning their last two games. But now they go up against a Bears defense that is allowing just 11.0 points per game and has held teams in single digits six times.
Williams returned to his early season form last week, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in a 30-27 victory at Atlanta. He had been held to 92 yards on 45 carries in his previous four contests.
This game will be the biggest test to date for Bucs quarterback Chris Simms, who is 2-2 in four starts since replacing the injured Brian Griese. The lefthander has thrown for five touchdowns with five intercetions in his four starts.
Two weeks ago, Simms enjoyed the best game of his career, throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns in a wild 36-35 victory over Washington. He went 11-of-19 for 118 yards with an interception last week.
Tampa Bay ranks third in total defense, allowing 272.7 yards per game. Chicago gives up 252.1 yards.
Michael Pittman rushed for 112 yards and touchdown to lead the Bucs to a 19-7 victory over the Bears here last season.
Matchup to watch: Bears left end Adewale Ogunleye, who matched a career high with three sacks last week, against right tackle Kenyatta Walker.
Team Plays/Trends
CHICAGO is 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 14.0, OPPONENT 11.4
CHICAGO is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.0, OPPONENT 17.3
CHICAGO is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 8.9, OPPONENT 19.4
CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 14.2, OPPONENT 15.5
TAMPA BAY is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when they allow 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 19.3, OPPONENT 8.8
TAMPA BAY is 43-12 UNDER (+29.8 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points since 1992.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.8, OPPONENT 11.6
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 19.1, OPPONENT 9.1
TAMPA BAY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 17.3, OPPONENT 9.6
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.8, OPPONENT 9.5
TAMPA BAY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 15.5, OPPONENT 11.4
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 total yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.7, OPPONENT 15.2
System Plays/Trends
Play Under - Any team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(41-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.9%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in November games.
(36-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(36-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(69-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +34.9 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in November games.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(34-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85%, +27.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in the second half of the season.
(59-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.2%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*)
Expect this game to feature their running backs and tight ends. Pressure on Sims from Kenyatta Walkers position will probably get ugly. Numerous false starts/offsides may occur in the Bucs front line trying to get a jump. Cadillac contributes.
NFL- Top plays Teased.
New England Patriots +9 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
(177) Chicago Bears vs. (178) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 38½ Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
1) Last November, the Patriots came into Arrowhead Stadium and left with a 27-19 victory. Tom Brady threw for 315 yards and a touchdown, Deion Branch caught six passes for 105 yards and Corey Dillon rushed for 98 yards and two scores.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick succeeded in stopping Kansas City's vaunted running game. The Chiefs rushed for just 64 yards, but Trent Green threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns - both to Eddie Kennison.
Priest Holmes did not play in last year's game against the Patriots and will not play this time as well due to head and neck injuries. But Larry Johnson proved he is ready to take over as the feature back, rushing for a franchise-record 211 yards in the Chiefs' 45-17 win at Houston last week.
However, the Texans own the worst record in the league at 1-9. Kansas City's next four opponents - New England, Denver, Dallas and the New York Giants - are first-place teams. After that, the Chiefs finish with home games against San Diego, which won the AFC West last season, and Cincinnati, which is tied with Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North.
The Patriots have played the last two games without Dillon, who has been bothered a groin injury. Fullbacks Heath Evans and Patrick Pass combined for 127 yards on 29 carries in a 24-17 win over New Orleans last week.
Brady threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns last week and leads the NFL with 2,782 passing yards.
Patriots linebackers Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi combined for 21 tackles in last week's win. Vrabel also caught a touchdown pass after lining up as a tight end.
Seeking its third straight AFC East title, New England has a two-game lead over Buffalo.
The Chiefs trail first-place Denver by two games in the AFC West and will host the Broncos next week.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs right end Jared Allen, who has seven sacks this season, lines up against rookie left tackle Nick Kazcur.
Patriots have won the last three meetings.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 28.1, OPPONENT 16.4
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 27.1, OPPONENT 17.0
NEW ENGLAND is 37-13 ATS (+22.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 25.2, OPPONENT 17.9
NEW ENGLAND is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.5, OPPONENT 17.7
In this game, New England must keep KC under 22 points or the ATS flips an advantage to KC. New England is hurting big but Brady has been very good against the lower rung teams- has losses to Indy, San Diego and Denver. Can't see them losing here either and will take the points.
2) The Bucs have scored 36 and 30 points in winning their last two games. But now they go up against a Bears defense that is allowing just 11.0 points per game and has held teams in single digits six times.
Williams returned to his early season form last week, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in a 30-27 victory at Atlanta. He had been held to 92 yards on 45 carries in his previous four contests.
This game will be the biggest test to date for Bucs quarterback Chris Simms, who is 2-2 in four starts since replacing the injured Brian Griese. The lefthander has thrown for five touchdowns with five intercetions in his four starts.
Two weeks ago, Simms enjoyed the best game of his career, throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns in a wild 36-35 victory over Washington. He went 11-of-19 for 118 yards with an interception last week.
Tampa Bay ranks third in total defense, allowing 272.7 yards per game. Chicago gives up 252.1 yards.
Michael Pittman rushed for 112 yards and touchdown to lead the Bucs to a 19-7 victory over the Bears here last season.
Matchup to watch: Bears left end Adewale Ogunleye, who matched a career high with three sacks last week, against right tackle Kenyatta Walker.
Team Plays/Trends
CHICAGO is 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 14.0, OPPONENT 11.4
CHICAGO is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.0, OPPONENT 17.3
CHICAGO is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 8.9, OPPONENT 19.4
CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 14.2, OPPONENT 15.5
TAMPA BAY is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when they allow 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 19.3, OPPONENT 8.8
TAMPA BAY is 43-12 UNDER (+29.8 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points since 1992.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.8, OPPONENT 11.6
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 19.1, OPPONENT 9.1
TAMPA BAY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 17.3, OPPONENT 9.6
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.8, OPPONENT 9.5
TAMPA BAY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 15.5, OPPONENT 11.4
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 total yards over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.7, OPPONENT 15.2
System Plays/Trends
Play Under - Any team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(41-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.9%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in November games.
(36-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(36-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off a upset win as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(69-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +34.9 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in November games.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in weeks 10 through 13.
(34-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85%, +27.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Under - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in the second half of the season.
(59-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.2%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*)
Expect this game to feature their running backs and tight ends. Pressure on Sims from Kenyatta Walkers position will probably get ugly. Numerous false starts/offsides may occur in the Bucs front line trying to get a jump. Cadillac contributes.
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