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BEFORE I GET TO THE SUMMARY, I WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO WISH EVERYBODY AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND! BOOOOOM TOTAL DOMINATION YET AGAIN IN THE NFL LAST SUNDAY, BUT IT WAS NEEDED AFTER A DISASTEROUS NCAA FOOTBALL SHOWING. I'M STILL SICK TO MY STOMACH OVER HOW MICHIGAN LOST THAT GAME TO OHIO STATE. BASKETBALL WAS GOOD TO ME BOTH DAYS AS I GAINED A SOLID (+3.5) PROFIT. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 24 WEEKS (83.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF FRIDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* ARKANSAS +17.5
1* ARIZONA STATE -9.5
1* HAWAII +7
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* KANSAS +3
2* TENNESSEE -9
1* NORTH TEXAS +2.5
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ARKANSAS (4 - 6) at LSU (9 - 1)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 2:30 PM
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Analysis
Hmmm with only 25% of the public backing Arkansas in this contest, I think its fair to say that they will not be a popular choice this week especially considering that they are on the road in Baton Rouge, La. Add that to the fact that LSU is coming off a dominating 40-7 victory against Ole Miss and needs a victory to clinch the SEC West championship and we know where the money will lie. Well I have never been one to follow the leader, so lets grab our balls and go with the Hogs. Granted I am well aware of the fact that the Razorbacks will be sitting out the bowl season for the second straight year but I can take some solace in the fact that the have shown a lot of pride and have won impressively the last two weeks with impressive wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State the last two Saturdays.
The key to the matchup is the ground game of Arkansas as Arkansas must be able to run the ball and keep its horrendous defense off the field and if their recent games are any indication, the Razorbacks have a good chance this week. Freshmen running backs Felix Jones and Darren McFadden have been quietly fueling a ground game that has gained 198 yards or more in seven of their nine games. Moreover, the Razorbacks have gained at least 241 yards on the ground in three of their last four games, including a 23-20 loss at Georgia, and they are averaging 5.29 yards per carry for the year. So what you say? Well prior to shutting down a horrible Ole Miss rushing attack, LSU was allowing a staggering 4.6 rushing yards per carry! As such, the Tigers “could” be vulnerable to the Razorbacks’ power on the ground. I say “could” because of course I am concerned of LSU’s defensive speed and strength. Given all of these facts, and the fact that LSU will certainly be utilizing a conservative game plan against the Hogs as they will essentially be playing this game “not to lose” we can conclude this will be a fast paced game that will in all likelihood going under the posted total. What’s all this mean? Take the 17.5 points!
Forecast: LSU 24, Arkansas 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +17.5
ARIZONA (3 - 7) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 5)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 3:00 PM
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Analysis
Ahhh yes the annual Territorial Cup but this match-up is not as sexy as it has been in previous years. The Arizona Wildcats are checking in with a dismal 2-7 record while the 5-5 Sun Devils would get a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl to play BYU with a victory here. So right from the start we know that one team has something to play for, while the other one does not. Arizona’s two game winning streak was snapped hard with their 38-14 thrashing at home to the lowly Washington Huskies. In that contest freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama, who played like “Jesus” in two previous games, was harassed into throwing 3 interceptions and fumbling twice. He also suffered hand and ankle injuries in that game but is probable for this contest. Without an effective Tuitama, defenses can and will crowd the line and bottle up running back Mike Bell. Also a concern...receiver Mike Thomas broke a hand bone in the Washington contest and is doubtful for this weeks contest .Naturally that is good news for a Sun Devil defensive unit that's struggled all season long, allowing 30 points and 472 yards per game but those problems thankfully say nothing about their explosive offense. Arizona State Average an eye-popping 37 points and 518 yards a contest and is led redshirt quarterback Rudy Carpenter who has completed a amazing 72% of his passes in 3 starts, throwing for 1,119 yards with a touchdown/interception ratio of 8-1.
As mentioned above, this is a great situational spot for the Sun Devil’s, as they need this victory to become bowl eligible. Of course that’s not enough alone for this to be a play, so I will also have to tell you that this is also a revenge spot for ASU. Surely, the Sun Devils have been waiting a year to get even for last year's regular season finale when then 8-2 Arizona State laid 14 to 2-8 Arizona in Tucson and watched in horror as the Wildcats posted a season-high 34 points in the upset win. Oh by the way, the Sun Devils are 30-4 ATS in their last 34 conference revenge wins. I also mentioned above that the Sun Devil’s are averaging 37 points per game at home over the past three years and that stat is significant because Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell me that Arizona is 4-25 SU & 2-26 ATS when they allow more than 28 points to a foe off a loss. I’m sensing a blowout!
Forecast: Arizona St 44, Arizona 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA STATE -9.5
WISCONSIN (8 - 3) at HAWAII (4 - 6)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 9:00 PM
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Analysis
With a bowl trip already wrapped up, will the Badgers be fully motivated? If ever a trip to play a football game could be described as purely being a vacation, this is it. So, the question will be are they thinking about football, or bikinis? Well when I was 18-22 I was only thinking about getting laid so I’m sure they are as well. Although 8-2 on the year, I still believe Wisconsin is overrated as they have allowed 25 points per game on 431 yards. Indeed, those numbers rank them 101st and 105th in NCAA football. With the Badgers defensive struggles it is tough to see how they will slow down the Hawaii pass attack that has been averaging over 350 yards per game. Wisconsin was also held to an average of 12 points per game during those last two losses. The Badgers will be without defensive end Matt Shaughnessy, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last week. Hawaii is off a 50-23 win against Utah State, and is averaging 388 passing yards behind freshman QB Colt Brennan. Although Hawaii lost SU to both Boise State and Fresno State at home, it should be duly noted that they outgained both on this field and could have won both games.
Perhaps the only fundamental advantage I see for Wisconsin is the fact that they do possess a very strong ground attack behind RB Brian Calhoun (1,274 yards), averaging 34 points and 154 yards rushing which is not a good match-up for a Hawaii defensive unit that is allowing 166 yards rushing per game. So expect Wisconsin to have little trouble trading points with Hawaii. But motivationally, but the Rainbow Warriors seem to have little trouble getting up for these games and their week off was not full of uncertainty, rather, it was one of focus. Hawaii does have a fundamental match-up advantage themselves as Wisconson HC Barry Alvarez has never showed an acumen for stopping a spread passing attack that Hawaii possess and with Colt Brennan and his receivers now firmly on the same page (439 yards per game in the air in the last five outings), they can make some plays against the slow Badger defense.
I also cannot stop thinking of the fact that this IS Hawaii’s bowl game so they will not be any letdown whatsoever in this team this week. Playing at Hawaii has always been a nightmare for visiting teams. Hawaii beat both Northwestern and Michigan State at home last year.Wisconsin is also not without their troubles. Recent reports out of Madison talk about the lack of focus on the Badger coaching staff as the current defensive coordinator and incoming head coach Bret Bielema and how they do not plan on retaining several offensive coaches and is looking to fill his staff with Kansas State coaches. Look for Hawaii to improve to 8-0 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 3 or more points under June Jones.
Forecast: Wisconsin 28, Hawaii 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII +7
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IOWA ST (7 - 3) at KANSAS (5 - 5)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/26/2005 12:30 PM
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Analysis
Iowa State (7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS), which shared the division crown with Colorado last year, can tie for this year's title if Nebraska were to upset Colorado and beat Kansas. Meanwhile, Kansas (5-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) needs a win to be eligible for the postseason The Iowa State defense steamrolled Colorado two weeks ago 30-16. Steve Paris returned a fumble 66 yards for a touchdown after Tim Dobbins knocked the ball loose and Brent Curvey, a 305-pound defensive tackle, rumbled 66 yards for a TD with an interception to secure the Cyclones' fourth straight victory and prevent Colorado from clinching the division title. As for the Jayhawks, they were absolutely humiliated by Texas 66-14 two weeks ago. Texas held the Jayhawks to just one first down in the first half and rolled up 618 total yards, 336 on the ground against the nation's toughest run defense.
Undefeated on their home field, the Jayhawks are playing for a bowl berth. Assuming arguendo that Colorado beats Nebraska on Friday night that puts Iowa State into this game with no prize and no motivation attached. The Jayhawks are 5-0 in Lawrence this year and two of their victims are teams who beat Iowa State. If we just forget about the disaster against Texas two weeks ago (and we all know a motivated Texas team annihilates just about anyone in college football), the Jayhawks are only allowing an incredible 64.1 (1.9 yards per carry) yards per game and have held five of nine opponents to less than 50 yards rushing. Even more amazingly was their statistic against a run oriented Nebraska team. The Jayhawks held Nebraska to a paltry 21 yards on 22 carries! That’s less then a yard per carry and it is tough to see how Iowa State will sustain much offense, which makes them vulnerable laying points on the road. Last year Kansas went to Ames and enjoyed a 208-192 yardage advantage over Iowa State but lost 13-7 due to a 4-1 turnover disadvantage. Wanting to extend their season into a bowl birth, Kansas will come to play hard and, if you ask Missouri and Nebraska, when KU comes to play, lookout. I’m just never…ever…not going to play on a home dog playing with motivation and a better defense! Take the points they are a gift!
Forecast: Iowa St 14, Kansas 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON KANSAS +3
TENNESSEE (4 - 6) at KENTUCKY (3 - 7)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/26/2005 12:30 PM
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Analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-6 SU, 1-8 ATS) are without question the most disappointing team in the country, losing again last week 28-24 at home to Vanderbilt as 13-point favorite! The Vols are 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season and its hard to remember they were so highly ranked (No. 3) back on Labor Day. The Vols needed to beat Vanderbilt Saturday, needing to win both that game and their final game at Kentucky to become eligible for a bowl game. Of course it did not happen! Phil Fulmer said, “Before you start building back anything, you have to hit rock bottom…well coach this is rock bottom! Meanwhile, Kentucky (3-7 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) doesn't pose much of a challenge, with an offense that averages just 137 yards rushing, 3.8 ypc, 168 yards passing. Last week Kentucky lost 45-13 at Georgia and the defense is allowing 35 per game (giving up 201 yards rushing, 245 yards passing pg.) Kentucky is 1-7 SU, 3-3 ATS as a dog. Kentucky is also just 3-7 ATS the last 10 meetings with Tennessee.
Here is really all you need to know in this game. Tennessee has beaten the Kentucky 20 times in a row (average win of 39-16) going 14-6 ATS in the mix. Tennessee is also 22-0 SU in its last regular season game of the year. With streaks of 20 straight and 22 straight, I'm going to make Tennessee the SU winner here. With that assumption made, we can look at these impressive numbers: The Volunteers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 SU road wins when not off an ATS win, including 24-0 to the money when not favored by 13 or more points. They are also 15-1 ATS in their last 16 SU road wins when coming off a SU loss. Kentucky is 3-32 against the line in its last 35 SU home losses when that line is less than +13. Finally, the Vols are also a sterling 45-13 ATS in its last 58 SEC road wins. Granted Vanderbilt beat them, but will Kentucky…if they do I’m done betting forever!
Injury Update: Wildcat QB Andre Woodson, who left last week’s game with a thumb injury, is questionable. Erik Ainge is the starter this week at QB for the Vols, with sr. Rick Clausen doubtful with a knee injury.
Forecast: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TENNESSEE -9
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF FRIDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* ARKANSAS +17.5
1* ARIZONA STATE -9.5
1* HAWAII +7
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* KANSAS +3
2* TENNESSEE -9
1* NORTH TEXAS +2.5
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ARKANSAS (4 - 6) at LSU (9 - 1)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 2:30 PM
vs Analysis
Hmmm with only 25% of the public backing Arkansas in this contest, I think its fair to say that they will not be a popular choice this week especially considering that they are on the road in Baton Rouge, La. Add that to the fact that LSU is coming off a dominating 40-7 victory against Ole Miss and needs a victory to clinch the SEC West championship and we know where the money will lie. Well I have never been one to follow the leader, so lets grab our balls and go with the Hogs. Granted I am well aware of the fact that the Razorbacks will be sitting out the bowl season for the second straight year but I can take some solace in the fact that the have shown a lot of pride and have won impressively the last two weeks with impressive wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State the last two Saturdays.
The key to the matchup is the ground game of Arkansas as Arkansas must be able to run the ball and keep its horrendous defense off the field and if their recent games are any indication, the Razorbacks have a good chance this week. Freshmen running backs Felix Jones and Darren McFadden have been quietly fueling a ground game that has gained 198 yards or more in seven of their nine games. Moreover, the Razorbacks have gained at least 241 yards on the ground in three of their last four games, including a 23-20 loss at Georgia, and they are averaging 5.29 yards per carry for the year. So what you say? Well prior to shutting down a horrible Ole Miss rushing attack, LSU was allowing a staggering 4.6 rushing yards per carry! As such, the Tigers “could” be vulnerable to the Razorbacks’ power on the ground. I say “could” because of course I am concerned of LSU’s defensive speed and strength. Given all of these facts, and the fact that LSU will certainly be utilizing a conservative game plan against the Hogs as they will essentially be playing this game “not to lose” we can conclude this will be a fast paced game that will in all likelihood going under the posted total. What’s all this mean? Take the 17.5 points!
Forecast: LSU 24, Arkansas 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +17.5
ARIZONA (3 - 7) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 5)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 3:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ahhh yes the annual Territorial Cup but this match-up is not as sexy as it has been in previous years. The Arizona Wildcats are checking in with a dismal 2-7 record while the 5-5 Sun Devils would get a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl to play BYU with a victory here. So right from the start we know that one team has something to play for, while the other one does not. Arizona’s two game winning streak was snapped hard with their 38-14 thrashing at home to the lowly Washington Huskies. In that contest freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama, who played like “Jesus” in two previous games, was harassed into throwing 3 interceptions and fumbling twice. He also suffered hand and ankle injuries in that game but is probable for this contest. Without an effective Tuitama, defenses can and will crowd the line and bottle up running back Mike Bell. Also a concern...receiver Mike Thomas broke a hand bone in the Washington contest and is doubtful for this weeks contest .Naturally that is good news for a Sun Devil defensive unit that's struggled all season long, allowing 30 points and 472 yards per game but those problems thankfully say nothing about their explosive offense. Arizona State Average an eye-popping 37 points and 518 yards a contest and is led redshirt quarterback Rudy Carpenter who has completed a amazing 72% of his passes in 3 starts, throwing for 1,119 yards with a touchdown/interception ratio of 8-1.
As mentioned above, this is a great situational spot for the Sun Devil’s, as they need this victory to become bowl eligible. Of course that’s not enough alone for this to be a play, so I will also have to tell you that this is also a revenge spot for ASU. Surely, the Sun Devils have been waiting a year to get even for last year's regular season finale when then 8-2 Arizona State laid 14 to 2-8 Arizona in Tucson and watched in horror as the Wildcats posted a season-high 34 points in the upset win. Oh by the way, the Sun Devils are 30-4 ATS in their last 34 conference revenge wins. I also mentioned above that the Sun Devil’s are averaging 37 points per game at home over the past three years and that stat is significant because Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell me that Arizona is 4-25 SU & 2-26 ATS when they allow more than 28 points to a foe off a loss. I’m sensing a blowout!
Forecast: Arizona St 44, Arizona 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA STATE -9.5
WISCONSIN (8 - 3) at HAWAII (4 - 6)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 9:00 PM
vs Analysis
With a bowl trip already wrapped up, will the Badgers be fully motivated? If ever a trip to play a football game could be described as purely being a vacation, this is it. So, the question will be are they thinking about football, or bikinis? Well when I was 18-22 I was only thinking about getting laid so I’m sure they are as well. Although 8-2 on the year, I still believe Wisconsin is overrated as they have allowed 25 points per game on 431 yards. Indeed, those numbers rank them 101st and 105th in NCAA football. With the Badgers defensive struggles it is tough to see how they will slow down the Hawaii pass attack that has been averaging over 350 yards per game. Wisconsin was also held to an average of 12 points per game during those last two losses. The Badgers will be without defensive end Matt Shaughnessy, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last week. Hawaii is off a 50-23 win against Utah State, and is averaging 388 passing yards behind freshman QB Colt Brennan. Although Hawaii lost SU to both Boise State and Fresno State at home, it should be duly noted that they outgained both on this field and could have won both games.
Perhaps the only fundamental advantage I see for Wisconsin is the fact that they do possess a very strong ground attack behind RB Brian Calhoun (1,274 yards), averaging 34 points and 154 yards rushing which is not a good match-up for a Hawaii defensive unit that is allowing 166 yards rushing per game. So expect Wisconsin to have little trouble trading points with Hawaii. But motivationally, but the Rainbow Warriors seem to have little trouble getting up for these games and their week off was not full of uncertainty, rather, it was one of focus. Hawaii does have a fundamental match-up advantage themselves as Wisconson HC Barry Alvarez has never showed an acumen for stopping a spread passing attack that Hawaii possess and with Colt Brennan and his receivers now firmly on the same page (439 yards per game in the air in the last five outings), they can make some plays against the slow Badger defense.
I also cannot stop thinking of the fact that this IS Hawaii’s bowl game so they will not be any letdown whatsoever in this team this week. Playing at Hawaii has always been a nightmare for visiting teams. Hawaii beat both Northwestern and Michigan State at home last year.Wisconsin is also not without their troubles. Recent reports out of Madison talk about the lack of focus on the Badger coaching staff as the current defensive coordinator and incoming head coach Bret Bielema and how they do not plan on retaining several offensive coaches and is looking to fill his staff with Kansas State coaches. Look for Hawaii to improve to 8-0 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 3 or more points under June Jones.
Forecast: Wisconsin 28, Hawaii 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII +7
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IOWA ST (7 - 3) at KANSAS (5 - 5)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/26/2005 12:30 PM
vs Analysis
Iowa State (7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS), which shared the division crown with Colorado last year, can tie for this year's title if Nebraska were to upset Colorado and beat Kansas. Meanwhile, Kansas (5-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) needs a win to be eligible for the postseason The Iowa State defense steamrolled Colorado two weeks ago 30-16. Steve Paris returned a fumble 66 yards for a touchdown after Tim Dobbins knocked the ball loose and Brent Curvey, a 305-pound defensive tackle, rumbled 66 yards for a TD with an interception to secure the Cyclones' fourth straight victory and prevent Colorado from clinching the division title. As for the Jayhawks, they were absolutely humiliated by Texas 66-14 two weeks ago. Texas held the Jayhawks to just one first down in the first half and rolled up 618 total yards, 336 on the ground against the nation's toughest run defense.
Undefeated on their home field, the Jayhawks are playing for a bowl berth. Assuming arguendo that Colorado beats Nebraska on Friday night that puts Iowa State into this game with no prize and no motivation attached. The Jayhawks are 5-0 in Lawrence this year and two of their victims are teams who beat Iowa State. If we just forget about the disaster against Texas two weeks ago (and we all know a motivated Texas team annihilates just about anyone in college football), the Jayhawks are only allowing an incredible 64.1 (1.9 yards per carry) yards per game and have held five of nine opponents to less than 50 yards rushing. Even more amazingly was their statistic against a run oriented Nebraska team. The Jayhawks held Nebraska to a paltry 21 yards on 22 carries! That’s less then a yard per carry and it is tough to see how Iowa State will sustain much offense, which makes them vulnerable laying points on the road. Last year Kansas went to Ames and enjoyed a 208-192 yardage advantage over Iowa State but lost 13-7 due to a 4-1 turnover disadvantage. Wanting to extend their season into a bowl birth, Kansas will come to play hard and, if you ask Missouri and Nebraska, when KU comes to play, lookout. I’m just never…ever…not going to play on a home dog playing with motivation and a better defense! Take the points they are a gift!
Forecast: Iowa St 14, Kansas 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON KANSAS +3
TENNESSEE (4 - 6) at KENTUCKY (3 - 7)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/26/2005 12:30 PM
vs Analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-6 SU, 1-8 ATS) are without question the most disappointing team in the country, losing again last week 28-24 at home to Vanderbilt as 13-point favorite! The Vols are 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season and its hard to remember they were so highly ranked (No. 3) back on Labor Day. The Vols needed to beat Vanderbilt Saturday, needing to win both that game and their final game at Kentucky to become eligible for a bowl game. Of course it did not happen! Phil Fulmer said, “Before you start building back anything, you have to hit rock bottom…well coach this is rock bottom! Meanwhile, Kentucky (3-7 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) doesn't pose much of a challenge, with an offense that averages just 137 yards rushing, 3.8 ypc, 168 yards passing. Last week Kentucky lost 45-13 at Georgia and the defense is allowing 35 per game (giving up 201 yards rushing, 245 yards passing pg.) Kentucky is 1-7 SU, 3-3 ATS as a dog. Kentucky is also just 3-7 ATS the last 10 meetings with Tennessee.
Here is really all you need to know in this game. Tennessee has beaten the Kentucky 20 times in a row (average win of 39-16) going 14-6 ATS in the mix. Tennessee is also 22-0 SU in its last regular season game of the year. With streaks of 20 straight and 22 straight, I'm going to make Tennessee the SU winner here. With that assumption made, we can look at these impressive numbers: The Volunteers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 SU road wins when not off an ATS win, including 24-0 to the money when not favored by 13 or more points. They are also 15-1 ATS in their last 16 SU road wins when coming off a SU loss. Kentucky is 3-32 against the line in its last 35 SU home losses when that line is less than +13. Finally, the Vols are also a sterling 45-13 ATS in its last 58 SEC road wins. Granted Vanderbilt beat them, but will Kentucky…if they do I’m done betting forever!
Injury Update: Wildcat QB Andre Woodson, who left last week’s game with a thumb injury, is questionable. Erik Ainge is the starter this week at QB for the Vols, with sr. Rick Clausen doubtful with a knee injury.
Forecast: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TENNESSEE -9
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