Free College & NFL Picks + Fades

[Blackbeard]

chicagosuntimes.com

http://www.suntimes.com/output/footb...nflcaps25.html

[Blackbeard]

chicagotribune

By Terry Bannon
Tribune staff reporter

November 25, 2005


Last week's record: 10-6 | Thursday's record: 2-0 | Season's record: 102-60

GAME OF THE WEEK
GIANTS (7-3) AT SEAHAWKS (8-2)
3:15 P.M. SUNDAY
LINE: Seahawks by 4½
LAST MEETING: Giants won 9-6 at New York on Sept. 22, 2002.
KEY STAT: It's Seahawks No. 1 offense vs. Giants' No. 23 defense.
FANTASY FACTOR: Eli Manning has thrown 18 TD passes vs. 9 interceptions. Seahawks' Shaun Alexander leads NFL with 1,229 yards rushing and 19 rushing TDs.
THE BUZZ: Solid playoff preview in which Seahawks should be able to move ball. But Giants are 1 or 2 big Manning plays away from upset.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS 31 GIANTS 30

BANNON'S BEST GAMES

BEARS (7-3) AT BUCS (7-3)
NOON SUNDAY, WFLD-Ch. 32, WBBM-AM 780
LINE: Bucs by 3
LAST MEETING: Bucs won 19-7 at Tampa on Oct. 24, 2004.
KEY STAT: Bears are No. 1 in defense; Bucs are No. 3.
FANTASY FACTOR: Muhsin Muhammad leads Bears with 44 catches, 2 TDs. Joey Galloway has 51 catches, 7 TDs for Bucs.
THE BUZZ: Good defenses should shut down running games, and inexperienced quarterbacks will play it safe. Bears' defense is on a roll.
THE PICK: BEARS 20 BUCS 16

PATRIOTS (6-4) AT CHIEFS (6-4)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Chiefs by 3
LAST MEETING: Patriots won 27-19 at Kansas City on Nov. 22, 2004.
KEY STAT: Pats 3-1 (losing only to Colts) since their week off.
FANTASY FACTOR: Deion Branch leads Pats with 55 catches, 4 for TDs. Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez has 54 catches, 1 TD.
THE BUZZ: Patriots have held things together after injuries and brutal early schedule. If they can run ball some, they can win at Arrowhead.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS 24 CHIEFS 20

STEELERS (7-3) AT COLTS (10-0)
8 P.M. MONDAY, WLS-Ch. 7, WSCR-AM 670*
LINE: Colts by 8
LAST MEETING: Steelers won 28-10 at Pittsburgh on Oct. 13, 2002.
KEY STAT: Colts' 4 home wins by average of 11.3.
FANTASY FACTOR: Ben Roethlisberger (11 TD passes in 7 games before injuring knee) is due back. Can Edgerrin James, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, do it against No. 3 rushing defense?
THE BUZZ: Roethlisberger's return could inspire Steelers, but Peyton Manning will move ball well enough. Home field difference in great matchup.
THE PICK: COLTS 28 STEELERS 23

OTHER GAMES

PANTHERS (7-3) AT BILLS (4-6)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Panthers by 4
LAST MEETING: Bills won 25-24 at Buffalo on Dec. 9, 2001.
KEY STAT: Bills 4-1 at home, losing only to Falcons.
FANTASY FACTOR: Panthers' Stephen Davis has rushed for 12 TDs, third in the NFL. Bills' Willis McGahee averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
THE BUZZ: Bills' run defense has been generous, ranking 31st. Panthers will have to exploit that weakness to pick up a road win.
THE PICK: PANTHERS 28 BILLS 27

RAVENS (3-7) AT BENGALS (7-3)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Bengals by 9
LAST MEETING: Bengals won 21-9 at Baltimore on Nov. 6.
KEY STAT: Bengals go for first 8-3 start since '88, when they reached Super Bowl.
FANTASY FACTOR: Ravens' Kyle Boller has completed 57.8 percent (3 TDs, 1 interception) in 2 games at Cincy. In last 2 vs. Ravens, Carson Palmer has completed 77.4 per-cent (5 TDs, 1 interception).
THE BUZZ: Ravens showed signs of return to form in upset of Steelers. If RB Chester Taylor can repeat his 139-yard day against Bengals in '04, upset looms.
THE PICK: BENGALS 23 RAVENS 17

RAMS (4-6) AT TEXANS (1-9)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Rams by 3½
LAST MEETING: First meeting.
KEY STAT: It's Rams' No. 5 offense vs. Texans' No. 30 defense.
FANTASY FACTOR: Rams' Steven Jackson, averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 6 TDs, should find room to run. Jabar Gaffney leads Texans with 37 catches, 2 for TDs.
THE BUZZ: With Marc Bulger out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, Jamie Martin will run conservative attack for Rams. Texans have a shot.
THE PICK: RAMS 24 TEXANS 21

BROWNS (4-6) AT VIKINGS (5-5)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Vikings by 4
LAST MEETING: First meeting since Browns re-entered NFL as expansion team in '99.
KEY STAT: Vikings lead NFL with five TDs on returns (3 interceptions, 1 kickoff, 1 punt)
FANTASY FACTOR: Antonio Bryant, who leads Browns with 42 catches, had 8-catch game vs. Minnesota last year as Cowboy. Vikes' Brad Johnson 3-0 as starter with 3 TD passes vs. 1 interception.
THE BUZZ: Vikings haven't been overpowering, but they've found way to win 3 in row and 4 out of 5.
THE PICK: VIKINGS 27 BROWNS 20

49ERS (2-8) AT TITANS (2-8)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Titans by 7½
LAST MEETING: 49ers won 24-22 at San Francisco on Oct. 3, 1999.
KEY STAT: 49ers 0-4 on the road, losing by average of 24.8.
FANTASY FACTOR: Ex-Illini Brandon Lloyd has 30 catches, 4 TDs and 3 100-yard games. Naperville native Chris Brown has 4 TDs in last 3 games for Titans
THE BUZZ: This is your basic rebuilding bowl. Titans' defense should control this one.
THE PICK: TITANS 20 49ERS 14

CHARGERS (6-4) AT REDSKINS (5-5)
NOON SUNDAY
LINE: Chargers by 3
LAST MEETING: Chargers won 30-3 at San Diego on Sept. 9, 2001.
KEY STAT: Four of Redskins' losses have been by 7 or less.
FANTASY FACTOR: Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson 2nd in NFL with 16 touchdowns (14 rushing, 2 receiving). Redskins' Clinton Portis, an ex-Bronco, has 4 100-yard games vs. Chargers.
THE BUZZ: Redskins have been tough at home, beating Seahawks and Eagles. They have some injuries, but defense will keep them in game.
THE PICK: REDSKINS 20 CHARGERS 17

JAGUARS (7-3) AT CARDINALS (3-7)
3:05 P.M. SUNDAY
LINE: Jaguars by 3
LAST MEETING: Jaguars won 44-10 at Jacksonville on Dec. 10, 2000.
KEY STAT: Jags have 1 winning team left on schedule (Colts Dec. 11 at home).
FANTASY FACTOR: Jags' Matt Jones leads NFL rookies with 27 catches, with all 4 of his TD catches in last 5 games. Rams' Kurt Warner has 6 TD passes vs. 5 interceptions.
THE BUZZ: Although Warner has been playing better, Jaguars' defense still challenge for Cardinals.
THE PICK: JAGUARS 27 CARDINALS 20

DOLPHINS (3-7) AT RAIDERS (4-6)
3:05 P.M. SUNDAY, WBBM-Ch. 2
LINE: Raiders by 7
LAST MEETING: Dolphins won 23-17 at Miami on Dec. 15, 2002.
KEY STAT: Dolphins have been outscored 62-26 in 3-game losing streak.
FANTASY FACTOR: Lamont Jordan, who has scored 9 TDs (7 rushing, 2 passing), faces banged-up Miami defense. Dolphins rookie Ronnie Brown averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
THE BUZZ: Raiders are playing better as Dolphins are playing worse. Dolphins may have to go with Gus Frerotte at QB despite sore finger.
THE PICK: RAIDERS 27 DOLPHINS 17

PACKERS (2-8) AT EAGLES (4-6)
3:15 P.M. SUNDAY, WFLD-Ch. 32
LINE: Eagles by 4½
LAST MEETING: Eagles won 47-17 at Philadelphia on Dec. 5, 2004.
KEY STAT: Eagles have lost 4 straight, allowing 28.5 points per game.
FANTASY FACTOR: Amid the Green Bay mess, Donald Driver has 56 catches, 5 for TDs. Amid the Philadelphia mess, Brian Westbrook has scored 6 TDs (2 rushing, 4 passing).
THE BUZZ: This matchup looked great in August, not so good now. Quarterback matchup is Brett Favre vs. Mike McMahon.
THE PICK: PACKERS 28 EAGLES 24

SAINTS (2-8) AT JETS (2-8)
7:30 P.M. SUNDAY, ESPN, WSCR-AM 670*
LINE: Saints by 1
LAST MEETING: Jets won 16-9 at New Orleans on Nov. 4, 2001.
KEY STAT: Combined, teams have 11 straight losses (Saints 6, Jets 5).
FANTASY FACTOR: Saints' Aaron Brooks has only 9 TD passes, but Jets have injuries on defense. Laveranues Coles has 50 catches, 2 TDs for Jets.
THE BUZZ: Saints played tough at New England last week before losing by 7. Jets are running out of quarterbacks.
THE PICK: SAINTS 17 JETS 16

[Blackbeard]

nynewsday:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/footba...sports-utility

[Blackbeard]

miami herald:

DOLPHINS (3-7) at RAIDERS (4-6)

• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: 4, 12

• Line: OAK by 7 • Cote: OAK 27-17

Dolphins players distributed several hundred turkeys to needy families this week, not counting the turkey they left in Cleveland. Hard to envision Miami finding much luck on this long trip in a tough cauldron of a venue, despite a five-game series win streak that seems pretty irrelevant. Zach Thomas won't play; that's bad news. Gus Frerotte will; that's usually bad news, too. Oakers are coming off an upset win (Washington) and facing a division rival (San Diego) next, so this is a potential trap game, but the Dolphins should only be so lucky. Kerry Collins should torch a bad pass defense for big numbers as ol' Norv Turner leaves the field smiling against yet another former employer.

Game of the week
STEELERS (7-3) at COLTS (10-0)

• When: 9 p.m. Monday • TV: 10, 25

• Line: Off the board • Cote: IND 24-17

Prime-time Monday gem finds Ben Roethlisberger finally back for Steelers (lingering doubts kept game off board) and Pitt 6-0 vs. Indy under Bill Cowher. Won't matter. Colts are that good. Scary good. Good enough to make the 1972 Dolphins wish they owned stock in Pepto-Bismol. Still can't see Indy finishing unbeaten, but this admittedly would be a huge hurdle that would make a whole bunch remaining doubters think they might. How can you not like Peyton Manning at home? He has 18 scoring passes in past seven games. He is 11-2 on TDs/picks in his past four Monday night games. And he is looking more and more like the league MVP. Again.

Upset of the week
RAMS (4-6) at TEXANS (1-9)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: STL by 4 • Cote: HOU 24-23

'AAWWK!'' says the Upset Bird, always thankful this time of year to be an unappetizing crow. ``One word. Houstaawwk.'' Granted, at 1-9, they've been the Houston Toxins. But very few teams go 1-15, and Texans have ample weapons to present to a lousy Rams defense. Call it a hunch pick. Why not? What's St. Lou, again down to its backup QB, done to earn anybody's trust? ``A valid rhetorical,'' notes U-Bird. ``I might point out that four of the Rams' losses have been to teams with a combined 33-7 raawwcord. Except that wouldn't feather the case for this pick. AAWWK!''
Dog of the week
49ERS (2-8) at TITANS (2-8)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: TEN by 7 ½ • Cote: TEN 30-27

In the season's closest Dog of the Week balloting, this game narrowly edged Saints-Jets on the first tiebreaker: game most likely to cause prisoners to protest against TV privileges. Make it a venue call, despite concerns distracted Tenners could have an eye on Indy on deck. Line feels fat, though. Even though Niners have lost their best defender, Bryant Young, to injury, Frans make a habit of losing close. Well, I've run out of things to say, but must fill two more lines. Umm, let's see. ``Deck the halls with boughs of holly, fa la la la la, la what a bad game!''

PANTHERS (7-3) at BILLS (4-6)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: CAR by 4 • Cote: CAR 20-10

Weather alone is a wild card making the Buffs a tempting home dog, but Carolina -- off a loss to Chicago and with Atlanta up next -- needs this win or its playoff standing could get shaky fast. Panthers' stout run defense will force the game into J.P. Losman's hands, which is where a Carolina fan would much rather it be.

RAVENS (3-7) at BENGALS (7-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: CIN by 9 • Cote: CIN 23-17

Classic sandwich game for Bengals, stuck quietly between last week's showdown with Indy and next week's biggie at Pittsburgh. That and Brian Billick's 9-4 record vs. Cincy make you think Balts have a big chance. Cincy beat Crows 21-9 three weeks ago and won't turn around and lose at home. But play it close.

PATRIOTS (6-4) at CHIEFS (6-4)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: KC by 3 • Cote: KC 31-27

KayCee is a notch better at home and has the offensive weaponry to move the chains and score big against England's broken-down, banged-up, bandaged defense. Did you see Larry Johnson run last week? (Priest Who?) Tom Brady getting points is always worth a thought, but, when in doubt, stay home.

BROWNS (4-6) at VIKINGS (5-5)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: MIN by 4 ½ • Cote: MIN 30-13

Teams' first meeting since 1995 finds Minny on a 5-0 home roll vs. AFC teams and bounced back nicely overall from a 1-4 start. Another win here and the S.S. Love Boat will be right back in the playoff chase, thanks in large part to new cap'n Brad Johnson. And, Dolphin debacle notwithstanding, Browns are lousy.

BEARS (7-3) at BUCCANEERS (7-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: 7, 29

• Line: TB by 3 • Cote: TB 17-13

Game of the Week runner-up matches two big-time defenses. Chicago's is a shade better, leading that six-game win streak. But Bucs are on a 6-1 series run at home, so make it a venue call. Big game in rookie-of-the-year race, too, with Kyle Orton and Cadillac Williams as Dolphin Ronnie Brown's biggest competition.

CHARGERS (6-4) at REDSKINS (5-5)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: SD by 3 • Cote: SD 31-17

Even at 6-4, Bolts might be as good right now as any NFL team not based in Indianapolis, with Drew Brees -- whom the Dolphins could have drafted; ouch! -- proving that his breakout season in 2004 was no fluke. Fast-fading Skins are desperate and home, but in Drew and LaDainian I trust.

JAGUARS (7-3) at CARDINALS (3-7)

• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: JAX by 3 • Cote: JAX 34-20

Kurt Warner proved he can still play in directing 'Zona to its monthly win last week, but the idea of the Redbirds winning two in a row stretches credulity to the snapping point. Hot Jax (on a 5-1 roll) is coming around offensively, and Arizona's disappointing defense should be in for another rough day.

PACKERS (2-8) at EAGLES (4-6)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: PHI by 4 ½ • Cote: PHI 24-17

Interesting game, given the records. Built-in desperate drama when NFL's two most disappointing teams meet. Brett Favre's Cheesers have lost toughies, including Monday, and are due some sort of break other than a heartbreak. But stick with Phils at home. Birds are too good, even sans T.O., to lose fifth straight.

GIANTS (7-3) at SEAHAWKS (8-2)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: 7, 29

• Line: SEA by 4 ½ • Cote: SEA 31-20

'Hawks can be first team to clinch playoff spot if they win and St. Lou loses. Shoutout to their punter, ex-UMer Jeff Feagles, who sets an NFL record Sunday by playing in his 283rd straight game. Underregarded Seattle is on a 17-3 home run with Matt Hasselbeck starting, and the good times roll on.

SAINTS (2-8) at JETS (2-8)

• When: 8:30 p.m. Sunday • TV: ESPN

• Line: Off the board • Cote: NO 24-14

Not-ready-for-prime-time matchup finds these teams having lost a combined 11 straight. Aints are bad enough to have been dominated by Miami. Planes have seen their offense disappear and probably will Brooks Bollinger despite a concussion. At least when he throws an interception, he might not remember it.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Picking the Dolphins to win a game they lost 22-0 worked as a pretty fair harbinger of our week, and of our continuing slump against the spread. Best I can say is that I had a better week than the Marlins. Highlights? A few. We bull's-eyed our Upset of the Week call on Bears over Panthers (``Aawwk!''), were on the right side of the big Colts-Bengals show, and had underdog Tampa-plus-points at Atlanta. After which we were mostly southbound on a greased pole. We've got some work

to do now vs. the betting line to get back up over .500. No

doubt we have a better chance to get there than the Dolphins do, but that's faint praise.

• Note: Records below do not include Thanksgiving Day games. Picks were: Falcons (-3) over Lions 27-17; and Cowboys (+2) over Broncos 24-20.


OVERALL VS. SPREAD
Last week 10-6 .625 6-9-1 .406
Season 101-59 .631 74-79-7 .484

[Spearit]

Thanx once again Blackbeard.

[Blackbeard]

fox:

Miami at Oakland: If a tie is like kissing your sister, then losing to the Browns 22-0 as the Dolphins did last week is like being kicked in the groin by your sister. Raiders 27, Dolphins 9.

Carolina at Buffalo: The Panthers used to have a pair of cheerleaders who could have put up more of a fight than Carolina did last week against Chicago. Panthers 20, Bills 10.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals are great at beating awful teams. It's the good ones that give them fits. Bengals 30, Ravens 10.

St. Louis at Houston: What will we see first, a new episode of The Sopranos or a Texans' victory? Rams 17, Texans 13.

Cleveland at Minnesota: Finally we can talk about a Johnson (Brad) making some noise in Minnesota and it has nothing to do with a late-night boat ride. Vikings 23, Browns 17.

Atlanta at Detroit: Jeff Garcia will replace Joey Harrington early in the game, but the Lions will still be embarrassed at home. Falcons 27, Lions 7.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: If you had told me four months ago that the Bears would be in first place this late in the season I would have kicked you in the knee and hit on your girlfriend. Bears 24, Bucs 20.

New England at Kansas City: Nicole Richie's cheeks have more depth than the Patriots' secondary does. Chiefs 31, Patriots 20.

San Francisco at Tennessee: I think I'd rather have strep throat for a month than be forced to watch this disaster. 49ers 27, Titans 23.

San Diego at Washington: A friend of mine asked me who I thought was funnier, Clinton Portis or Carrot Top. I answered by politely asking my friend to leave my house. Chargers 34, Redskins 13.

Denver at Dallas: Ron Dayne will have a big game, including a long run late that will set up a game-winning field goal by Jason Elam. Broncos 27, Cowboys 24 OT.


Some nice people who have seen their beloved team fall on hard times. It's a shame. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Jacksonville at Arizona: If Kurt Warner's monster performance last week in St. Louis taught us anything, it's that God really likes Kurt Warner. Cardinals 20, Jaguars 17.

Green Bay at Philadelphia: I can't help but feel bad for Eagles fans. I mean why should such a nice group of people be forced to watch their team's season go down the drain so quickly. Sometimes life just isn't fair, is it? Eagles 13, Packers 10.

New York Giants at Seattle: A friend of mine offered me $100 if I could name one guy on the Seahawks' defense. I could have really used that cash. Giants 31, Seahawks 17.

New Orleans at New York Jets (Sunday night): Not even ESPN sideline reporter Suzy Kolber can get excited about this doozy and that's saying A LOT, considering a bowl of cereal can make her go into hysterics. Jets 13, Saints 3

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: Just a few more wins for the Colts and the 1972 Dolphins will be like the 2004 Dolphins: irrelevant. Colts 27, Steelers 13

[Blackbeard]

sporting news:

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis. How do you beat the 2005 Colts? Well, there are few teams left who can provide answers. The Steelers, with their willingness to grind it out with a run-first ball-control offense, a 3-4 defense that can sometimes confuse Peyton Manning and just a pure physical style, may have the best formula. The problem is, it's Manning in prime time, at home in the ideal environment to challenge Pittsburgh's beatable cornerbacks and make this game a track meet early.

Once Indy gets a few big plays that turn into scores, the Steelers aren't a team designed to play catchup with the passing game. Their only chance will be to sustain a few long drives and get multiple turnovers in the first half, which isn't likely against a home-standing Manning. Colts 27, Steelers 14.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

New York Giants at Seattle. A preview of the NFC championship game? Perhaps. But the Giants have a long road ahead, starting with this long road trip out West. Both Eli Manning and their defense have had their best success East, and while the former will need to deal with an aggressive pass rush that will go after him, the latter will have its plate full with Shaun Alexander.

I see Eli, his receivers and Tiki Barber keeping the G-Men in the game for four quarters, but eventually what Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck will do will put the game out of reach. Seahawks 27, Giants 20.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

New England at Kansas City. The Patriots will try to slow down what the Chiefs do best -- run the ball with Larry Johnson behind their great offensive line. That once again will leave their secondary vulnerable to another big passing day, this time by Trent Green, who found his rhythm in Houston last week.

And really, that's fine with the Pats, because they have the utmost confidence in Tom Brady and their deep wide receiver and tight end corps to thrive against a bad Chiefs pass defense that will be without top cornerback Patrick Surtain. Brady will be unfazed in front of Arrowhead's hostile crowd, and I have confidence he will make the big play when it counts. Patriots 31, Chiefs 27.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Oakland over Miami. The pickings are getting slim in "win and stay in" survival football pools, so I thought I would offer some help again. The Norv Turner Tour made a successful stop in Washington last week, and make it two in a row against the team whose offense he used to coordinate, the Dolphins.

Without Zach Thomas on this tough cross-country road test, Miami's defense will have trouble slowing down LaMont Jordan in the running game, which should allow Oakland to open up the passing game with Randy Moss against a secondary prone to giving up big plays. In addition, with the push the Raiders are getting with their front four, they will be able to stop a limited Fins' offense. Raiders 30, Dolphins 14.

REST OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Cincinnati. The Bengals may still be catching their breath after trying to keep up with the Colts last week, but their offense won't have much burden of proof in this matchup. Expect their defense to take out their Manning frustrations with a turnover-fest vs. Kyle Boller, and for Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and Rudi Johnson to be too much for the injury-riddled Ravens' D to handle on the road. Bengals 31, Ravens 13.

Carolina at Buffalo. The Bills' struggles against the run are now leading to undue pressure on their usually good pass defense, and the Panthers should find much more room to pound the ball and set up high-percentage passes off play-action this week than they did against the Bears last week. Also look for a dominant performance by Carolina's front four against a Buffalo offensive line full of moving parts. Panthers 24, Bills 17.

Chicago at Tampa Bay. Speaking of the Bears, their defense has been dominant, and while the Bucs' D has struggled of late, it still has the talent to keep this a low-scoring affair. Both teams will look to grind it out in a field-position battle, but home-field advantage and slightly better passing game will make a difference for Jon Gruden's team vs. former Bucs assistant Lovie Smith's familiar schemes. Buccaneers 14, Bears 13.

Cleveland at Minnesota. Of all the helmets in the NFL, the Browns' most resemble a cooked turkey, but that won't be enough to help them against a suddenly sizzling Vikings team. Expect plenty more of Mewelde Moore to burn the Browns' front seven, and Minnesota's defense will step up to stop Reuben Droughns to leave Cleveland with limited options for moving the ball. Vikings 27, Browns 19.

San Diego at Washington. The Chargers have caught a spark with their passing game coming alive, while the Redskins' air show has been grounded of late. Injuries to the hosts' defensive line won't help against LaDainian Tomlinson, and Drew Brees will continue to work toward a big contract by working around the ball to several different targets. The visitors' top-ranked run defense will help by keeping Clinton Portis in check. Chargers 24, Redskins 20.

St. Louis at Houston. Rumor has it sidelined Rams coach Mike Martz might be headed to the Texans next season, but for now, the hosts will need to settle for facing the Rams' shell of a defense to help jump-start their dormant offense. With Marc Bulger likely out again, it might actually dawn on the Rams to give Steven Jackson 20-plus carries against the league's worst run defense. Counterpart Domanick Davis will keep the game close. Rams 27, Texans 24.

Green Bay at Philadelphia. Those "if the Eagles had Brett Favre" comments should provide the Eagles' T.O.-less and Donovan McNabb-less offense with a little more motivation, and their Lito Sheppard-less defense also will respond. Brian Westbrook is a near-impossible matchup for the Packers' linebackers and safeties, and McNabb replacement Mike McMahon will make some big plays with his athleticism and strong arm. Eagles 24, Packers 20.

Jacksonville at Arizona. The Jaguars are slowly putting their "young team" label behind them by playing more consistent offense to go with their hard-hitting defense. Byron Leftwich is starting to play with more confidence with a better receiving corps, and whoever's running the ball should run free on the Cards. Kurt Warner will be facing a very physical defense, and the Jags will deliver the blows to slow down Arizona's pass-happy offense. Jaguars 20, Cardinals 17.

REST OF THE WEAK

Week 12 also gives us two matchups featuring two 2-8 teams. Those right on the heels of the Texans in the running for USC's Reggie Bush are ...

San Francisco at Tennessee. Defensively, the Titans have the pass rush to keep the 49ers off-balance all afternoon, and offensively, they have the balance to enjoy a gold rush of points against the visitors' 3-4, which struggles away from the Bay. Hold off on a Bush or Matt Leinart reunion with Norm Chow, because Jeff Fisher's team isn't that bad to pick so high. Titans 28, 49ers 19.

New Orleans at New York Jets. The Jets have their eye on Bush but won't roll over to get him. This is the Saints' second prime-time trip to the Meadowlands, the first being a Monday night "home" game they lost to the Giants. This Sunday nighter will go to the team that makes fewer mistakes. In the Brooks Bowl, the Jets' emphasis on protecting the ball and forcing takeaways will help Bollinger get the better of Aaron. Jets 20, Saints 17.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 11 straight up: 8-8


Week 11 record vs. the spread: 7-9


Season record straight up: 102-58
Season record vs. the spread: 77-83

[Blackbeard]

espn bill simmons:

CHIEFS (-3) over Patriots
Ladies and gentleman, the New Triplets: Tom Brady, Heath Evans and Andre Davis! And yes, the Patriots are officially in "We're locked into the AFC East and the No. 4 spot, let's get everyone healthy for January" mode. Fine with me.

BILLS (+4) over Panthers
I'm never taking Jake Delhomme on the road again. You can go to hell, Jake Delhomme. You can go straight to hell.

(Annoying announcer trend of the week: Both Fox guys kept calling Steve Smith "Steven Smith" last week. I think they thought Stephen A. Smith was playing. Why does stuff like this happen? 2005 could go down as the worst year in the history of NFL announcing. I'm convinced.)

BENGALS (-9) over Ravens
The Ravens are so bad, it took them five quarters to beat a team playing Tommy Maddox at QB. By the way, did anyone else think the Bengals would have won that Colts game if Carson Palmer didn't choke with that last interception? That's two games now where that Bengals team blinked as soon as someone else looked them in the eye. Not working in January.

Chargers (-3) over REDSKINS
Easiest game on the board. And since I have nothing else to add, Brad in Columbus solves my "Who's the MLB equivalent to Raef LaFrentz and Gus Frerotte" from last week's column:

"I think it has to be Hideo Nomo. Nomo just seems to be one of those guys that stinks and has hurt every team he's played for since leaving the Dodgers (the first time) but he keeps showing up and getting a chance somehow (a la Gus and Raef). And the thing all 3 of these guys have in common is that at some point they randomly come up with some huge game. Gus's 360 yards vs the Pats ... Raef's 7-for-7 from 3 ... Nomo's no-hitter for the Red Sox in 2001. I think the amount of parity in pro sports today breeds this kind of thing. If you took 5 teams out of the NFL and MLB, do you think guys like Gus Frerotte and Hideo Nomo would still be around? I think not."

BUCS (-3) over Bears
I'm not sure if Chicago needs this one nearly as much as Tampa does -- they have three straight road games after this one. By the way, everyone was worried that I jumped off the Bears Bandwagon last week -- hey, I haven't gone anywhere. I picked them to finish 10-6, they're going to finish 10-6. I even have $50 on them at 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. So there.

(Feud of the week: Phil Simms screaming about Steve Young saying Chris Simms wasn't tough enough because he grew up in a "laissez faire atmosphere." Meanwhile, Steve Young came from the mean streets of Greenwich, Connecticut. You'd hate to see this thing end with somebody getting strangled to death by a Burberry's scarf.)

VIKINGS (-4) over Browns
The lesson, as always: if you replace a talented QB who makes consistently horrible mistakes with a mediocre QB who doesn't make any mistakes, you'll win more games with the mediocre QB.

(From reader Andrew B. in Santa Monica: "Is there anything funnier in the NFL right now than the ongoing Mike Tice 'Trying to Figure Out if I Won the Challenge' Face? Last week vs. the Giants (on that quasi-Eli-fumble/forward pass play) he is marching down the sidelines, arm outstretched and pointing as if the Vikes are going to get the ball, and only about 5 seconds after the ref gives the Giants the ball back does he finally realize that he's wrong. Then yesterday, on the interception return for a touchdown, he looked like he was trying to do long division in his head for about 10 seconds until he realized the touchdown would stand. The NFL should require that Tice challenge one play per half just to show his struggles in interpreting the ref's decision.")

NINERS (+8) over Titans
The Niners are just frisky enough that this line seems high. By the way, has any receiver in the history of mankind vacillated between "absolutely unbelievable" and "freaking terrible" like Brandon Lloyd? Either he's the next Lynn Swann or the next Hart Lee Dykes. Maybe a little of both.

TEXANS (+4) over Rams
I think Maguire, Theismann and Patrick should do every Texans game. What's better than Patrick saying "This kid has all the tools" about David Carr (who's only like 3-58 in his last 61 starts), or Theismann yelping, "You cannot blame Dom Capers for what's happening here" as the cameras show Capers frozen on the sidelines with his mouth open, almost like he's trying to catch flies. And by the way, if they can't come within four points of the imploding Rams this week, that should answer the "Should Capers come back?" and "Should we renew Carr?" questions. Emphatically.

(Speaking of Theismann, here's an e-mail from Brendan in Indy: "With just around 1:00 left in the 3rd Quarter and the Texans facing a 4th and 4 from the 4 yard line. Down 31-14, the Texans lined up like they were going to go for it. At which point Joe Theismann says 'the Texans are going to go for it, and I love that call' following by the Texans calling a timeout and the game going to a commercial break. When the game returns, the Texans are kicking the field goal and the announcers are arguing about the decision to kick the field goal, with Theismann arguing FOR the field goal. I thought that maybe I had misheard who had said they loved the call to go for it, so with the beauty of TiVo I was able to go back and watch it again, and sure enough it was the great Joe Theismann! He really is creating arguments with himself!")

CARDS (+3.5) over Jaguars
On the Vengeance Scale, Kurt Warner's dramatic win in St. Louis last Sunday was at least a 0.2 or a 0.3.

RAIDERS (-7) over Dolphins
The Dolphins are this year's winner of the "Team That's Had Their Hearts Ripped Out Because of Their Crappy QB's" Award. But here's the good news: Last year's winner? The Bears. So there's hope.

EAGLES (-4.5) over Packers
I'm enjoying the Mike McMahon Era -- even have him starting for both my fantasy teams. Plus, as Amy from New Jersey points out: "How is McMahon starting if he is considered the third string QB for the Eagles? Do you think that Detmer's neck-beard is holding him back? Is he better than McMahon, but the Eagles don't want him on TV due to the neck-beard? I got all excited a few weeks ago when McNabb left the Denver game because I thought we would see the neck-beard. But, guess what? Detmer came into the game WITHOUT the neck-beard! Did the Eagles reward him for shaving it off? Also, it has been documented that Detmer travels to road games only with the clothes he is wearing and a toothbrush. (So how did he shave the neck-beard when they were playing at Denver?) Does this all lead to getting passed over when the starter gets hurt? Or is it because Detmer's the place-holder and they can't mess with the karma there? Even if it didn't cost Detmer a start, I think neck-beards should be avoided."

(See, there's a place for female footballs fans on this planet. And you thought there wasn't.)

Giants (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS
Two straight "Vegas had no idea where to set these lines" games! That's always fun. This feels like a three-point game to me.

JETS (+1.5) over Saints
I don't mean to sound callous -- really, I don't -- but if Katrina doesn't happen, there's no way Jim Haslett still has a job. Just a terrible coach. The Saints have quit on him now for four straight seasons -- he's coming up on Wayne Fontes's record. This year, everyone thinks they quit because of the hurricane after-effects, and I'm sure that played a part, there's no question. But these guys always look out undisciplined and underprepared. Always. At some point, you have to look at the coach.

COLTS (-5) over Steelers
I'm never going against the 2005 Colts again. By the way, classic moment in the Bengals/Colts game last week when they showed Chad Johnson writing something in big letters after his touchdown, and Jim Nantz happily said, "Oh, boy, let's see what Chad's up to now," and then Chad showed off his message -- "TO -- I got you baby" -- leading to this exchange:

-- Nantz: "Ah ... "
-- Simms: "Ah, jeez.."

(Four full seconds of silence.)

LAST WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 80-77-2

[Blackbeard]

Fades

Record: 60-37-3
CFB: 38-17-1
NFL: 22-20-2
----------------------------------
2-1 yesterday, damn college is much easier for some reason than NFL, may have some more picks later:

Bills +3.5
Patriots +3.5
Redskins +3.5

[Blackbeard]

Son Of A Whore!!!!!!!!!

Gonna Have To Go Back To Chalkboard For Nfl, Its Not Performing So Good, Also Bills Fade Was Based On 4.5 Line, But I Bet It At 3.5 Like A Dope....

Looks Like 1-2 After Skins Int

[Blackbeard]

double son of a whore!!!!!!!!!!!!!

0-3, i give up

[griffey_mojo]

Get 'em next week BB!

[x2gold]

Nice work as always BB!