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BEFORE I GET TO THE SUMMARY, I WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO WISH EVERYBODY AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND! BOOOOOM TOTAL DOMINATION YET AGAIN IN THE NFL LAST SUNDAY, BUT IT WAS NEEDED AFTER A DISASTEROUS NCAA FOOTBALL SHOWING. I'M STILL SICK TO MY STOMACH OVER HOW MICHIGAN LOST THAT GAME TO OHIO STATE. BASKETBALL WAS GOOD TO ME BOTH DAYS AS I GAINED A SOLID (+3.5) PROFIT. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 24 WEEKS (83.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* ARKANSAS +17.5
1* ARIZONA STATE -9.5
1* HAWAII +7
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ARKANSAS (4 - 6) at LSU (9 - 1)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 2:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
Hmmm with only 25% of the public backing Arkansas in this contest, I think its fair to say that they will not be a popular choice this week especially considering that they are on the road in Baton Rouge, La. Add that to the fact that LSU is coming off a dominating 40-7 victory against Ole Miss and needs a victory to clinch the SEC West championship and we know where the money will lie. Well I have never been one to follow the leader, so lets grab our balls and go with the Hogs. Granted I am well aware of the fact that the Razorbacks will be sitting out the bowl season for the second straight year but I can take some solace in the fact that the have shown a lot of pride and have won impressively the last two weeks with impressive wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State the last two Saturdays.
The key to the matchup is the ground game of Arkansas as Arkansas must be able to run the ball and keep its horrendous defense off the field and if their recent games are any indication, the Razorbacks have a good chance this week. Freshmen running backs Felix Jones and Darren McFadden have been quietly fueling a ground game that has gained 198 yards or more in seven of their nine games. Moreover, the Razorbacks have gained at least 241 yards on the ground in three of their last four games, including a 23-20 loss at Georgia, and they are averaging 5.29 yards per carry for the year. So what you say? Well prior to shutting down a horrible Ole Miss rushing attack, LSU was allowing a staggering 4.6 rushing yards per carry! As such, the Tigers “could” be vulnerable to the Razorbacks’ power on the ground. I say “could” because of course I am concerned of LSU’s defensive speed and strength. Given all of these facts, and the fact that LSU will certainly be utilizing a conservative game plan against the Hogs as they will essentially be playing this game “not to lose” we can conclude this will be a fast paced game that will in all likelihood going under the posted total. What’s all this mean? Take the 17.5 points!
Forecast: LSU 24, Arkansas 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +17.5
ARIZONA (3 - 7) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 5)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 3:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Ahhh yes the annual Territorial Cup but this match-up is not as sexy as it has been in previous years. The Arizona Wildcats are checking in with a dismal 2-7 record while the 5-5Sun Devils would get a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl to play BYU with a victory here. So right from the start we know that one team has something to play for, while the other one does not. Arizona’s two game winning streak was snapped hard with their 38-14 thrashing at home to the lowly Washington Huskies. In that contest freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama, who played like “Jesus” in two previous games, was harassed into throwing 3 interceptions and fumbling twice. He also suffered hand and ankle injuries in that game but is probable for this contest. Without an effective Tuitama, defenses can and will crowd the line and bottle up running back Mike Bell. Also a concern...receiver Mike Thomas broke a hand bone in the Washington contest and is doubtful for this weeks contest .Naturally that is good news for a Sun Devil defensive unit that's struggled all season long, allowing 30 points and 472 yards per game but those problems thankfully say nothing about their explosive offense. Arizona State Average an eye-popping 37 points and 518 yards a contest and is led redshirt quarterback Rudy Carpenter who has completed a amazing 72% of his passes in 3 starts, throwing for 1,119 yards with a touchdown/interception ratio of 8-1.
As mentioned above, this is a great situational spot for the Sun Devil’s, as they need this victory to become bowl eligible. Of course that’s not enough alone for this to be a play, so I will also have to tell you that this is also a revenge spot for ASU. Surely, the Sun Devils have been waiting a year to get even for last year's regular season finale when then 8-2 Arizona State laid 14 to 2-8 Arizona in Tucson and watched in horror as the Wildcats posted a season-high 34 points in the upset win. Oh by the way, the Sun Devils are 30-4 ATS in their last 34 conference revenge wins. I also mentioned above that the Sun Devil’s are averaging 37 points per game at home over the past three years and that stat is significant because Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell me that Arizona is 4-25 SU & 2-26 ATS when they allow more than 28 points to a foe off a loss. I’m sensing a blowout!
Forecast: Arizona St 44, Arizona 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA STATE -9.5
WISCONSIN (8 - 3) at HAWAII (4 - 6)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 9:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
With a bowl trip already wrapped up, will the Badgers be fully motivated? If ever a trip to play a football game could be described as purely being a vacation, this is it. So, the question will be are they thinking about football, or bikinis? Well when I was 18-22 I was only thinking about getting laid so I’m sure they are as well. Although 8-2 on the year, I still believe Wisconsin is overrated as they have allowed 25 points per game on 431 yards. Indeed, those numbers rank them 101st and 105th in NCAA football. With the Badgers defensive struggles it is tough to see how they will slow down the Hawaii pass attack that has been averaging over 350 yards per game. Wisconsin was also held to an average of 12 points per game during those last two losses. The Badgers will be without defensive end Matt Shaughnessy, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last week. Hawaii is off a 50-23 win against Utah State, and is averaging 388 passing yards behind freshman QB Colt Brennan. Although Hawaii lost SU to both Boise State and Fresno State at home, it should be duly noted that they outgained both on this field and could have won both games.
Perhaps the only fundamental advantage I see for Wisconsin is the fact that they do possess a very strong ground attack behind RB Brian Calhoun (1,274 yards), averaging 34 points and 154 yards rushing which is not a good match-up for a Hawaii defensive unit that is allowing 166 yards rushing per game. So expect Wisconsin to have little trouble trading points with Hawaii. But motivationally, but the Rainbow Warriors seem to have little trouble getting up for these games and their week off was not full of uncertainty, rather, it was one of focus. Hawaii does have a fundamental match-up advantage themselves as Wisconson HC Barry Alvarez has never showed an acumen for stopping a spread passing attack that Hawaii possess and with Colt Brennan and his receivers now firmly on the same page (439 yards per game in the air in the last five outings), they can make some plays against the slow Badger defense.
I also cannot stop thinking of the fact that this IS Hawaii’s bowl game so they will not be any letdown whatsoever in this team this week. Playing at Hawaii has always been a nightmare for visiting teams. Hawaii beat both Northwestern and Michigan State at home last year.Wisconsin is also not without their troubles. Recent reports out of Madison talk about the lack of focus on the Badger coaching staff as the current defensive coordinator and incoming head coach Bret Bielema and how they do not plan on retaining several offensive coaches and is looking to fill his staff with Kansas State coaches. Look for Hawaii to improve to 8-0 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 3 or more points under June Jones.
Forecast: Wisconsin 28, Hawaii 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII +7
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* ARKANSAS +17.5
1* ARIZONA STATE -9.5
1* HAWAII +7
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ARKANSAS (4 - 6) at LSU (9 - 1)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 2:30 PM
vs Analysis
Hmmm with only 25% of the public backing Arkansas in this contest, I think its fair to say that they will not be a popular choice this week especially considering that they are on the road in Baton Rouge, La. Add that to the fact that LSU is coming off a dominating 40-7 victory against Ole Miss and needs a victory to clinch the SEC West championship and we know where the money will lie. Well I have never been one to follow the leader, so lets grab our balls and go with the Hogs. Granted I am well aware of the fact that the Razorbacks will be sitting out the bowl season for the second straight year but I can take some solace in the fact that the have shown a lot of pride and have won impressively the last two weeks with impressive wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State the last two Saturdays.
The key to the matchup is the ground game of Arkansas as Arkansas must be able to run the ball and keep its horrendous defense off the field and if their recent games are any indication, the Razorbacks have a good chance this week. Freshmen running backs Felix Jones and Darren McFadden have been quietly fueling a ground game that has gained 198 yards or more in seven of their nine games. Moreover, the Razorbacks have gained at least 241 yards on the ground in three of their last four games, including a 23-20 loss at Georgia, and they are averaging 5.29 yards per carry for the year. So what you say? Well prior to shutting down a horrible Ole Miss rushing attack, LSU was allowing a staggering 4.6 rushing yards per carry! As such, the Tigers “could” be vulnerable to the Razorbacks’ power on the ground. I say “could” because of course I am concerned of LSU’s defensive speed and strength. Given all of these facts, and the fact that LSU will certainly be utilizing a conservative game plan against the Hogs as they will essentially be playing this game “not to lose” we can conclude this will be a fast paced game that will in all likelihood going under the posted total. What’s all this mean? Take the 17.5 points!
Forecast: LSU 24, Arkansas 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +17.5
ARIZONA (3 - 7) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 5)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 3:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ahhh yes the annual Territorial Cup but this match-up is not as sexy as it has been in previous years. The Arizona Wildcats are checking in with a dismal 2-7 record while the 5-5Sun Devils would get a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl to play BYU with a victory here. So right from the start we know that one team has something to play for, while the other one does not. Arizona’s two game winning streak was snapped hard with their 38-14 thrashing at home to the lowly Washington Huskies. In that contest freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama, who played like “Jesus” in two previous games, was harassed into throwing 3 interceptions and fumbling twice. He also suffered hand and ankle injuries in that game but is probable for this contest. Without an effective Tuitama, defenses can and will crowd the line and bottle up running back Mike Bell. Also a concern...receiver Mike Thomas broke a hand bone in the Washington contest and is doubtful for this weeks contest .Naturally that is good news for a Sun Devil defensive unit that's struggled all season long, allowing 30 points and 472 yards per game but those problems thankfully say nothing about their explosive offense. Arizona State Average an eye-popping 37 points and 518 yards a contest and is led redshirt quarterback Rudy Carpenter who has completed a amazing 72% of his passes in 3 starts, throwing for 1,119 yards with a touchdown/interception ratio of 8-1.
As mentioned above, this is a great situational spot for the Sun Devil’s, as they need this victory to become bowl eligible. Of course that’s not enough alone for this to be a play, so I will also have to tell you that this is also a revenge spot for ASU. Surely, the Sun Devils have been waiting a year to get even for last year's regular season finale when then 8-2 Arizona State laid 14 to 2-8 Arizona in Tucson and watched in horror as the Wildcats posted a season-high 34 points in the upset win. Oh by the way, the Sun Devils are 30-4 ATS in their last 34 conference revenge wins. I also mentioned above that the Sun Devil’s are averaging 37 points per game at home over the past three years and that stat is significant because Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell me that Arizona is 4-25 SU & 2-26 ATS when they allow more than 28 points to a foe off a loss. I’m sensing a blowout!
Forecast: Arizona St 44, Arizona 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA STATE -9.5
WISCONSIN (8 - 3) at HAWAII (4 - 6)
Week 13 Friday, 11/25/2005 9:00 PM
vs Analysis
With a bowl trip already wrapped up, will the Badgers be fully motivated? If ever a trip to play a football game could be described as purely being a vacation, this is it. So, the question will be are they thinking about football, or bikinis? Well when I was 18-22 I was only thinking about getting laid so I’m sure they are as well. Although 8-2 on the year, I still believe Wisconsin is overrated as they have allowed 25 points per game on 431 yards. Indeed, those numbers rank them 101st and 105th in NCAA football. With the Badgers defensive struggles it is tough to see how they will slow down the Hawaii pass attack that has been averaging over 350 yards per game. Wisconsin was also held to an average of 12 points per game during those last two losses. The Badgers will be without defensive end Matt Shaughnessy, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last week. Hawaii is off a 50-23 win against Utah State, and is averaging 388 passing yards behind freshman QB Colt Brennan. Although Hawaii lost SU to both Boise State and Fresno State at home, it should be duly noted that they outgained both on this field and could have won both games.
Perhaps the only fundamental advantage I see for Wisconsin is the fact that they do possess a very strong ground attack behind RB Brian Calhoun (1,274 yards), averaging 34 points and 154 yards rushing which is not a good match-up for a Hawaii defensive unit that is allowing 166 yards rushing per game. So expect Wisconsin to have little trouble trading points with Hawaii. But motivationally, but the Rainbow Warriors seem to have little trouble getting up for these games and their week off was not full of uncertainty, rather, it was one of focus. Hawaii does have a fundamental match-up advantage themselves as Wisconson HC Barry Alvarez has never showed an acumen for stopping a spread passing attack that Hawaii possess and with Colt Brennan and his receivers now firmly on the same page (439 yards per game in the air in the last five outings), they can make some plays against the slow Badger defense.
I also cannot stop thinking of the fact that this IS Hawaii’s bowl game so they will not be any letdown whatsoever in this team this week. Playing at Hawaii has always been a nightmare for visiting teams. Hawaii beat both Northwestern and Michigan State at home last year.Wisconsin is also not without their troubles. Recent reports out of Madison talk about the lack of focus on the Badger coaching staff as the current defensive coordinator and incoming head coach Bret Bielema and how they do not plan on retaining several offensive coaches and is looking to fill his staff with Kansas State coaches. Look for Hawaii to improve to 8-0 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 3 or more points under June Jones.
Forecast: Wisconsin 28, Hawaii 34
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII +7
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