Tweet
BEFORE I GET TO THE SUMMARY, I WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO WISH EVERYBODY AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND! BOOOOOM TOTAL DOMINATION YET AGAIN IN THE NFL YESTERDAY, BUT IT WAS NEEDED AFTER A DISASTEROUS NCAA FOOTBALL SHOWING. THE TOP PLAY ON THE BEARS WAS EASY MONEY AS THE GAME WAS NEVER IN DOUBT, AS WAS CLEVELAND, THE SEATTLE OVER, AND BALTIMORE. I ADMIT WE GOT A BIT LUCKY ON THE TITANS GAME. BASKETBALL WAS GOOD TO ME BOTH DAYS AS I GAINED A SOLID (+3.5) PROFIT. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 24 WEEKS (83.3%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS WEEK #11:
[color:blue]3* CHICAGO +3.5[/color] WON
2* DETROIT +8 LOST
1* TENNESSEE +4.5 WON
1* SEATTLE/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 42 WON
1* CLEVELAND -2 WON
1* BALTIMORE +3.5 WON
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
4* 0 WINS 1 LOSS (0%)
3* 6 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 10 WINS 5 LOSSES (66.6%)
1* 18 WINS 21 LOSSES (46.2%)
Opinions: 3 WINS 4 LOSEES (42.8%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
WEEK #10: 5 WINS 3 LOSSES (-.2 UNITS)
WEEK #11: 5 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.8 UNITS)
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
1* DALLAS +2.5
1* DETROIT +3.5
Opinions: DENVER/DALLAS UNDER 41.5; ATLANTA/DETROIT OVER 43
--------------------------------------------------
DENVER (8 - 2) at DALLAS (7 - 3)
Week 12 Thursday, 11/24/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
Wow what a match-up this turns out to be as we get to sit back stuffed with Turkey and watch a couple of Division leaders going head to head. Plummer vs Bledsoe will make for an interesting battle, but the ground game will decide this one. Denver (8-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) made short work of the Jets with a 27-0 whitewash Sunday as Jake Plummer continued his impressive season. Plummer threw for 225 yards and again went without an interception while Mike Anderson ran for 113 yards and three scores. Denver held the Curtis Martin to just 7 yards on four carries, his worst output since a 5-yard game early in 2002 when he was hurting and didn't play much. Denver's defense has slipped to No. 17 although they should be well rested for this contest as they were only on the field for 18 minutes in last weeks game against the Jets. Meanwhile, this is a bit of a tough scheduling spot for Dallas (7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) as they now have to play their third game in 11 days. The Cowboys scored a 20-7 win over Detroit Sunday. QB Drew Bledsoe threw for a season-low 110 yards and didn't have a touchdown pass for the first time but RB Julius Jones returned to the starting lineup and ran for 92 yards. Dallas dominated the clock, didn't have any turnovers and allowed only one sack to win their third straight.
As I traditionally do on Thanksgiving, I’m going to give my opinions on both the side and the total on each game. Both Dallas and the Cowboys have key division match-ups looming the following week as the Cowboys have the Giants on deck, while the Broncos play the Chiefs. As such there really is no situational advantage for either team. Fundamentally, both teams are having balanced seasons and both will be going against tough defenses. However, Denver has shown more offensive diversity and their running game continues to be productive (averaging 168 ypg). So looks like we will have to look for our friend, the trend to get some answers and presto we got an angle. Dallas is beginning to re-establish its home dominance, as they are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS at home. The Cowboys are also a stellar 11-4 ATS as Turkey Day favorites. In addition you should also know that Denver has struggled on the road against winning teams as they 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 in that role. This is also just Denver’s second game on carpet this season and the Broncos are 4-7 ATS their past 11 on artificial turf. It is really hard to buck the strong home field and the Thanksgiving Day advantage for the Cowboys so take the points.
As stated above, both these teams are very balanced teams and both love to utilize the run more then the pass. The Broncos are averaging 168 yards on the ground a game, which is good for second in the NFL, while the Cowboys average 115 yards per game. Look for both teams to use a very conservative game plan (keeping that clock moving) as both have key divisional opponents on deck and will not pull out their surprises until then. Look for this one to go under the posted total.
Forecast: DEN Broncos 17 DAL Cowboys 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DALLAS +2.5
OPINION SELECTION ON DENVER/DALLAS UNDER 41.5
ATLANTA (6 - 4) at DETROIT (4 - 6)
Week 12 Thursday, 11/24/2005 12:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
In losing to Tampa Bay 30-27, Atlanta (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) remained one game back in the hotly contested NFC South division after their second straight loss at home. Atlanta fell behind 13-0, then moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay's highly ranked defense. Michael Vick led five straight scoring possessions, including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins that gave the Falcons a 27-20 lead with 7:36 remaining. Oddly enough, Atlanta has been better on the road this season (3-1 SU) than at home (3-3). Meanwhile, the Lions (4-6) came up short yet again in a 20-7 losing effort to Dallas Sunday but a large part of that was due to the fact that Detroit was penalized 17 times for 129 yards and nine first downs. Indeed, each of Dallas' four scoring drives included a failed third down that became a first down thanks to a penalty against the Lions. Coach Steve Mariucci will not name the starting quarterback for this game until Thursday staying with Joey Harrington for a third straight game or play Jeff Garcia. This of course makes me shit my pants because to date I’m 0-2 on selections with the lions betting on Harrington so lets hope Garcia is healthy.
Early betting indicators show that only 17% of the betting public are going to the window and betting on Detroit. 17%? I just do not get it! This is an absolutely terrible situational spot for the Falcons. Not only do they have to travel off a short week, but they are right in the middle of a meaningless NFC South sandwich game having just played Tampa Bay, and next week get to play division leader Carolina and they now have to face team that they couldn’t beat on their home field last year. There are some many interesting angles on this games as well, as Lions’ head coach Steve Mariucci has inside info on the workings of the brain of both the Falcons’ head coach Jim Mora, Jr. and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp because Mariucci hired both Mora and Knapp as his coordinators in San Francisco back in the day. The Lions are also 11-6 SU & ATS at home on Turkey Day, including 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS when the foe played at home in their last game and with both Roy Williams and Kevin Jones returning to form, the Lions could be dangerous at home in their annual turkey day game! Get out the carving knife but were not going to carve a Turkey on this day…I prefer a Falcon.
Forecast: ATL 24, DET Lions 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DETROIT +3.5
OPINION SELECTION ON ATLANTA/DETROIT OVER 43
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS WEEK #11:
[color:blue]3* CHICAGO +3.5[/color] WON
2* DETROIT +8 LOST
1* TENNESSEE +4.5 WON
1* SEATTLE/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 42 WON
1* CLEVELAND -2 WON
1* BALTIMORE +3.5 WON
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
4* 0 WINS 1 LOSS (0%)
3* 6 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 10 WINS 5 LOSSES (66.6%)
1* 18 WINS 21 LOSSES (46.2%)
Opinions: 3 WINS 4 LOSEES (42.8%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
WEEK #10: 5 WINS 3 LOSSES (-.2 UNITS)
WEEK #11: 5 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.8 UNITS)
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
1* DALLAS +2.5
1* DETROIT +3.5
Opinions: DENVER/DALLAS UNDER 41.5; ATLANTA/DETROIT OVER 43
--------------------------------------------------
DENVER (8 - 2) at DALLAS (7 - 3)
Week 12 Thursday, 11/24/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
Wow what a match-up this turns out to be as we get to sit back stuffed with Turkey and watch a couple of Division leaders going head to head. Plummer vs Bledsoe will make for an interesting battle, but the ground game will decide this one. Denver (8-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) made short work of the Jets with a 27-0 whitewash Sunday as Jake Plummer continued his impressive season. Plummer threw for 225 yards and again went without an interception while Mike Anderson ran for 113 yards and three scores. Denver held the Curtis Martin to just 7 yards on four carries, his worst output since a 5-yard game early in 2002 when he was hurting and didn't play much. Denver's defense has slipped to No. 17 although they should be well rested for this contest as they were only on the field for 18 minutes in last weeks game against the Jets. Meanwhile, this is a bit of a tough scheduling spot for Dallas (7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) as they now have to play their third game in 11 days. The Cowboys scored a 20-7 win over Detroit Sunday. QB Drew Bledsoe threw for a season-low 110 yards and didn't have a touchdown pass for the first time but RB Julius Jones returned to the starting lineup and ran for 92 yards. Dallas dominated the clock, didn't have any turnovers and allowed only one sack to win their third straight.
As I traditionally do on Thanksgiving, I’m going to give my opinions on both the side and the total on each game. Both Dallas and the Cowboys have key division match-ups looming the following week as the Cowboys have the Giants on deck, while the Broncos play the Chiefs. As such there really is no situational advantage for either team. Fundamentally, both teams are having balanced seasons and both will be going against tough defenses. However, Denver has shown more offensive diversity and their running game continues to be productive (averaging 168 ypg). So looks like we will have to look for our friend, the trend to get some answers and presto we got an angle. Dallas is beginning to re-establish its home dominance, as they are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS at home. The Cowboys are also a stellar 11-4 ATS as Turkey Day favorites. In addition you should also know that Denver has struggled on the road against winning teams as they 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 in that role. This is also just Denver’s second game on carpet this season and the Broncos are 4-7 ATS their past 11 on artificial turf. It is really hard to buck the strong home field and the Thanksgiving Day advantage for the Cowboys so take the points.
As stated above, both these teams are very balanced teams and both love to utilize the run more then the pass. The Broncos are averaging 168 yards on the ground a game, which is good for second in the NFL, while the Cowboys average 115 yards per game. Look for both teams to use a very conservative game plan (keeping that clock moving) as both have key divisional opponents on deck and will not pull out their surprises until then. Look for this one to go under the posted total.
Forecast: DEN Broncos 17 DAL Cowboys 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DALLAS +2.5
OPINION SELECTION ON DENVER/DALLAS UNDER 41.5
ATLANTA (6 - 4) at DETROIT (4 - 6)
Week 12 Thursday, 11/24/2005 12:30 PM
vs Analysis
In losing to Tampa Bay 30-27, Atlanta (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) remained one game back in the hotly contested NFC South division after their second straight loss at home. Atlanta fell behind 13-0, then moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay's highly ranked defense. Michael Vick led five straight scoring possessions, including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins that gave the Falcons a 27-20 lead with 7:36 remaining. Oddly enough, Atlanta has been better on the road this season (3-1 SU) than at home (3-3). Meanwhile, the Lions (4-6) came up short yet again in a 20-7 losing effort to Dallas Sunday but a large part of that was due to the fact that Detroit was penalized 17 times for 129 yards and nine first downs. Indeed, each of Dallas' four scoring drives included a failed third down that became a first down thanks to a penalty against the Lions. Coach Steve Mariucci will not name the starting quarterback for this game until Thursday staying with Joey Harrington for a third straight game or play Jeff Garcia. This of course makes me shit my pants because to date I’m 0-2 on selections with the lions betting on Harrington so lets hope Garcia is healthy.
Early betting indicators show that only 17% of the betting public are going to the window and betting on Detroit. 17%? I just do not get it! This is an absolutely terrible situational spot for the Falcons. Not only do they have to travel off a short week, but they are right in the middle of a meaningless NFC South sandwich game having just played Tampa Bay, and next week get to play division leader Carolina and they now have to face team that they couldn’t beat on their home field last year. There are some many interesting angles on this games as well, as Lions’ head coach Steve Mariucci has inside info on the workings of the brain of both the Falcons’ head coach Jim Mora, Jr. and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp because Mariucci hired both Mora and Knapp as his coordinators in San Francisco back in the day. The Lions are also 11-6 SU & ATS at home on Turkey Day, including 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS when the foe played at home in their last game and with both Roy Williams and Kevin Jones returning to form, the Lions could be dangerous at home in their annual turkey day game! Get out the carving knife but were not going to carve a Turkey on this day…I prefer a Falcon.
Forecast: ATL 24, DET Lions 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DETROIT +3.5
OPINION SELECTION ON ATLANTA/DETROIT OVER 43
Comment