Thanksgiving but no turkeys

[griswold]

NFL YTD 22-12 +13.05 units
2* 7-2 +9.4 units
1* 15-10 +3.65 units

CFB YTD 49-33 +24.2 units
4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 12-5 +13.0 units
1* 35-28 +4.2 units

Combined 71-45 +37.25 units
4* 1-0 +4.0 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 19-7 +22.4 units
1* 50-38 +7.85 units

I cooled off last week, going 3-3 in college and 2-2 in pros. While my card this weekend will be thin (probably four NFL and only three CFB), my favorite two plays of the entire weekend are on turkey day.

2* Cowboys +3 (-130)
The money's been on Denver all week and I'm taking advantage of it to buy all the way to +3. I've been riding Dallas all year and keep winning. This is a really strong spot. The Broncos are sailing in the AFC West and can afford a letdown while Dallas must keep winning in the contentious NFC East. The Broncos' shutout of the terible Jets (both QBs hurt) is giving line value here. Dallas has a great running game (Jones and Barber are both outstanding) and has a very underrated defense. Homefield advantage for Dallas. I almost considered this one for my pro GOY (but Denver's too good to go against them on a monster play) but I do predict a straight up upset.

1* Lions/Falcons OVER 42
Play this as soon as possible as the line keeps moving up (a very bad opening line). Atlanta has been running the ball like crazy but may be a little worn down, forcing Vick to throw. In the meantime, Atlanta's defense is shockingly bad right now and is having trouble stopping the running game. Atlanta has lost two in a row at home (because of awful defensive play) and will try to light it up on offense. Way over the total.

One play for Sunday posted now because the line will move dramatically against me.

1* Eagles -4 1/2
(I'll write this up during the weekend with my other Sunday NFL pick(s).)

Opinions only: Lions, Pitt (almost made them a play as WV is overrated in the lousy Big East and Pitt is coming on but there was just bad karma trying to bet Wannstedt on turkey day)

[mes5107]

GL Griswold!!! if i may ask....how come you're buying the hook if it was almost your GOY?

[griffey_mojo]

GL Gris!

[shortymac27]

Good Luck Gris!! Like the Dallas play..upset alert!

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck on Turkey Day buddy!

[RJeremy]

GL Gris! You'll heat back up again!

[slappy's son]

Hey Mes.... why ask a stupid question? Shit happens, especially in pro sports, and it would be stupid not to buy it up to +3 as insurance. Do you have life insurance for you family? I hope so. Chances are you'll never need it, but there may be that time when you might (hopefully not). So asking why he needs to but the 1/2 point as insurance, since it was almost his GOY, to maybe get away with a push instead of a loss, apprears that you're doing nothing more than egging him on and giving an him an unnecessary shot! We don't need it!

IMHO...I think anyone who plays a game at +2.5 instead of buying to 3 needs to find another form of investment or hobby.

[mes5107]

My question was not made to "egg him on" or meant to be stupid in any way. I have been following griswold the past couple of weeks and been doing very well. If I am capping my own games and he has a take on one of my games either side, I take his play into huge consideration. That aside. I'm just trying to pick his brain a bit. Maybe an answer to my question would be: "This game will be close and come down to the final drive, so I just want to make sure it's covered."

As far as you saying anyone who plays a game at +2.5 instead of +3 needs to find another form of investment or hobby, I will say this: You are paying another 20% in vig for to have insurance on a final score that will happen less than 20% of the time. However, if Griswold thinks this will be a very close game, the hook could be worth it.

[Lsufan]

Good Luck Gris

[slappy's son]

My apologies MES. I see too many posters who love to jump on the give their "digs" into someone trying to post a winner for the board! Sorry I took your comment that way. To me, when it comes to +2.5, +6.5 and +9.5, I ALWAYS buy these key hooks! And if the game is as strong as Gris thinks, this extra juice will not matter anyway. But should something happen, and we lose by 3, I'll be damned if I'm gonna lose a big wager due to NOT buying the extra 1/2 point! And to me, the BIGGER the wager, the more important this 1/2 point becomes.

Again, sorry for my response if this was not what you had intended.

[mes5107]

It's cool, I should have explained the reasoning for my question a little earlier.

[griswold]

GL Griswold!!! if i may ask....how come you're buying the hook if it was almost your GOY?

No offense taken by the question.

I almost always buy to +3 (in this case I jumped on a +2 1/2 at one offshore, Olympic, and bought it up). Buying on or off the 3 in the NFL is very controversial but it has given me two NFL pushes this year and has only cost me on two of my losses. So I added some extra juice in losses but saved two wagers.

Some people never buy the 1/2 point on or off 3. Studies show it's pretty close as to whether it pays off in the long run. I know that it's helped me this year and makes me feel better (for whatever that's worth). One other point, I ALWAYS but to 3 if the line is 2 1/2 (+100) as the juice factor is reduced.

[10DimeBry]

GL and have a great holiday gris

[Meg30]

Good Luck Gris..Happy Thanksgiving!!

[***THA FIX***]

Good Luck Gris