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NFL: Contrarian Views (Week 11)
November 20, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Buffalo-2 ½ (winner) +1000
Tampa Bay +1(winner) +1000
Miami+3 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
TOTAL: (19-12) +5800 /+5.8 units
Dealing with the Tough Beats
As a professional gambler, or "risk management specialist" as I call it when strangers ask me what I do for a living, the stresses of the job are sometimes overwhelming. Despite this column's record, I've recently been running worse than I ever have in my life, in both poker and in sports. The beats have been so ridiculous and so continuous, that one begins to feel as though he is marked with doom. The feeling is almost indescribable.
Despite a firm foundation in mathematics, I have a knack of falling into superstition. During bad runs in the past I've cut off my hair, as if I'm performing a 'reverse' Sampson on myself. It worked. I've literally thrown the clothes away that I happened to be wearing during a particular tough string of beats. I've also been known to take out my frustration on a few computer components, office chairs, and desks. However, this particular run as of late has been so tough that despite good money management saving the bacon, the mental strain has been virtually overwhelming. It has put me beyond the snapping point, as it seems that no complete loss of control could even justify the sickening, mathematically defying nature of the run I'm on.
Every bettor that has been doing this for any extended period of time knows exactly what I'm talking about. We are forced to learn how to deal with unfortunate results. I would imagine that some are better than others in handling those inevitable mathematically defying results, however I would grant that most are better at it than I.
It seems to me that the best solution in the midst of runs like these is to simply take a break. The confidence one has in one's own plays seems to me to be the most important factor in winning at handicapping and betting sports. Without one's confidence, the mind begins to think in confused tones, and logic no longer remains logical. It is at this point that a break is the perfect solution, if only to reach a point where the suffering bettor at least feels he's beginning with a fresh start and a fresh mind.
It has been my experience to find that most sports gamblers do not take a break until they are forced to, via the "broke-city" route. Obviously, if we intend to be long-run winners, then careful maintenance of our bankrolls is of utmost importance. Be creative in your solutions to breaking the bad runs and simply avoid that little voice in your head that urges you to chase the dragon. Disciplined losing is still losing. Don't be afraid to take a break.
This week I've decided to try something different with this column. In typical tout fashion, I am releasing my "Infinity to the 4th power, Lock of the information age."
INFINITY to the 4th POWER-LOCK OF THE INFORMATION AGE!
Game #1: Carolina Panthers -3 @ Chicago Bears
Despite the facetious tone of the play, this is my favorite selection of the year. Like a heard of buffalo headed for the cliff are the gang of sportsbettors eating the chalk in this match-up. They've been trained to lay the points with the pretty team and now it's time for the slaughter. We'll go ahead and back the grinder at home.
TOP PLAY: Chicago Bears+3 for $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 ½ @ Tennessee Titans
Let's just go ahead and say what we are all thinking. The dogs are so due that they've become ravenous. This one feels a little square with Tennessee coming off the bye week and Jacksonville having some recent struggles, but what the hell, I am betting the dog.
TOP PLAY: Tennessee Titans +4 for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: Indianapolis Colts -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Warning! Every play involving the Indianapolis Colts whether on them or against them in this column in this year, has been a loss. But we believe in due theory, and hell, this column is due in a match-up involving the Colts. Once again the reasoning is the same, albeit counterintuitive. We'll take a feisty Bengal team at home against the hottest and possibly most over-rated team in the league.
TOP PLAY: Cincinnati Bengals +5 for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance
November 20, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Buffalo-2 ½ (winner) +1000
Tampa Bay +1(winner) +1000
Miami+3 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
TOTAL: (19-12) +5800 /+5.8 units
Dealing with the Tough Beats
As a professional gambler, or "risk management specialist" as I call it when strangers ask me what I do for a living, the stresses of the job are sometimes overwhelming. Despite this column's record, I've recently been running worse than I ever have in my life, in both poker and in sports. The beats have been so ridiculous and so continuous, that one begins to feel as though he is marked with doom. The feeling is almost indescribable.
Despite a firm foundation in mathematics, I have a knack of falling into superstition. During bad runs in the past I've cut off my hair, as if I'm performing a 'reverse' Sampson on myself. It worked. I've literally thrown the clothes away that I happened to be wearing during a particular tough string of beats. I've also been known to take out my frustration on a few computer components, office chairs, and desks. However, this particular run as of late has been so tough that despite good money management saving the bacon, the mental strain has been virtually overwhelming. It has put me beyond the snapping point, as it seems that no complete loss of control could even justify the sickening, mathematically defying nature of the run I'm on.
Every bettor that has been doing this for any extended period of time knows exactly what I'm talking about. We are forced to learn how to deal with unfortunate results. I would imagine that some are better than others in handling those inevitable mathematically defying results, however I would grant that most are better at it than I.
It seems to me that the best solution in the midst of runs like these is to simply take a break. The confidence one has in one's own plays seems to me to be the most important factor in winning at handicapping and betting sports. Without one's confidence, the mind begins to think in confused tones, and logic no longer remains logical. It is at this point that a break is the perfect solution, if only to reach a point where the suffering bettor at least feels he's beginning with a fresh start and a fresh mind.
It has been my experience to find that most sports gamblers do not take a break until they are forced to, via the "broke-city" route. Obviously, if we intend to be long-run winners, then careful maintenance of our bankrolls is of utmost importance. Be creative in your solutions to breaking the bad runs and simply avoid that little voice in your head that urges you to chase the dragon. Disciplined losing is still losing. Don't be afraid to take a break.
This week I've decided to try something different with this column. In typical tout fashion, I am releasing my "Infinity to the 4th power, Lock of the information age."
INFINITY to the 4th POWER-LOCK OF THE INFORMATION AGE!
Game #1: Carolina Panthers -3 @ Chicago Bears
Despite the facetious tone of the play, this is my favorite selection of the year. Like a heard of buffalo headed for the cliff are the gang of sportsbettors eating the chalk in this match-up. They've been trained to lay the points with the pretty team and now it's time for the slaughter. We'll go ahead and back the grinder at home.
TOP PLAY: Chicago Bears+3 for $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 ½ @ Tennessee Titans
Let's just go ahead and say what we are all thinking. The dogs are so due that they've become ravenous. This one feels a little square with Tennessee coming off the bye week and Jacksonville having some recent struggles, but what the hell, I am betting the dog.
TOP PLAY: Tennessee Titans +4 for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: Indianapolis Colts -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Warning! Every play involving the Indianapolis Colts whether on them or against them in this column in this year, has been a loss. But we believe in due theory, and hell, this column is due in a match-up involving the Colts. Once again the reasoning is the same, albeit counterintuitive. We'll take a feisty Bengal team at home against the hottest and possibly most over-rated team in the league.
TOP PLAY: Cincinnati Bengals +5 for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance
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