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Contrarian Views (Week 10)
November 13, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Tampa Bay-2 (loser) -1100
Jacksonville-13 (loser) -1100
New England +3 ½(loser)-1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
TOTAL: (17-11) +4900 /+4.9 units
The NFL year 2005 is quickly becoming known as the year of the square. I wish this year was the first year I ever started betting sports. I wish I had never learned that eating chalk in the same way a starving dog would attack a Bellagio buffet is the fastest way to broke-city. I wish I never learned that crossing zero with teasers is a ridiculously stupid play. In fact, I wish that I was so mentally challenged that I would have hired a monkey to throw darts, selecting my 2-team 6pt teasers, making his only requirement being that he play favorites only, and I'd have a monkey picking 62%. That's right folks. This year, through week 9 if you blindly played every single 2 team combination (favorites only) in a 6 pt teaser, you have won 62% of your plays this year.
As we all know, this is really bad news for your typical sportsbook filled with squares that begin handicapping games with only one requirement, that regardless of any sophisticated thinking, they play the better team. However, these types of runs where the favorites take the money are even more disastrous for the contrarian sportsbettors. When the flashy/pretty teams cover, the contrarian can reach in his back pocket and start shelling out the benjamins. Frankly, I am shocked that this column has a winning record as far as plays go. The odds of a contrarian being a winner for the year so far are along lines of the odds of hosting an Easter egg hunt in a mine field without anyone getting their legs blown off. Sheer luck.
The favorites went 14-0 straight up last week making them 98-32 (75.4%) for the year. They also went 12-2 against the spread, bringing their season long record to 72-54-4 (57%). This has got to end, or you can expect contrarians worldwide to continue to take a beating.
Week 10
Game #1: Washington Redskins -1 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are sticking to the game plan and playing a team that has now become a horrible team in the eyes of the majority of sportsbetters. The Buccaneers are hosting a team that was featured last Monday Night in a flashy defeat of the Philadelphia Eagles. Bettors from all sides of the handicapping world played and won with the Redskins, moving the line from pick to Wash-3-120.
The results from the last 5 weeks reinforce the wrong-headed attitude that the winning approach simply to figure out which team is better than the other, and bet on them. Tampa Bay was dominated last week as their weakness in pass defense was exploited. However, this week it is their rush defense that will play the predominant role in stopping Washington. We'll make the Brave play here and take the slight dog at home.
TOP PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 for $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: Kansas City +2.5 @ Buffalo Bills
It's really tough for me to eat any chalk this week as I tend to fall into the trap of believing that the dogs are due, no matter the scenario. However, this match-up pits a "pretty" team versus what I call a "struggler". The Kansas City Chiefs win last week, despite its aid from the horrible tripping call by the ref (which was completely ignored by ESPN), was the highlight of the weekend. They are viewed in the minds of squares as an unstoppable offense that has no problem overcoming a lack of defense.
Buffalo on the other hand has come to be viewed as a grinder, only able to squeak out wins via the conservative route. Consensus reports show the public backing the road dog at a 70% clip. Traditionally, when the public is so willing to back a dog, the favorite becomes the team with the value. We'll go ahead and back the home team coming off the bye week and fade the public.
TOP PLAY: Buffalo Bills-2 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: New England Patriots -3 @ Miami Dolphins
I am going to make this one simple. Consensus reports show the public backing this team at almost a 5-1 clip. These son of a bitches have won enough money eating chalk on the road. The bullshit ends here and now. Miami for all the bacon in a pig farm!
TOP PLAY: Miami Dolphins +3 for $1000 (1 unit)
November 13, 2005
by James Patrick
Last Week's Recap: (2-1)
Tampa Bay-2 (loser) -1100
Jacksonville-13 (loser) -1100
New England +3 ½(loser)-1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
TOTAL: (17-11) +4900 /+4.9 units
The NFL year 2005 is quickly becoming known as the year of the square. I wish this year was the first year I ever started betting sports. I wish I had never learned that eating chalk in the same way a starving dog would attack a Bellagio buffet is the fastest way to broke-city. I wish I never learned that crossing zero with teasers is a ridiculously stupid play. In fact, I wish that I was so mentally challenged that I would have hired a monkey to throw darts, selecting my 2-team 6pt teasers, making his only requirement being that he play favorites only, and I'd have a monkey picking 62%. That's right folks. This year, through week 9 if you blindly played every single 2 team combination (favorites only) in a 6 pt teaser, you have won 62% of your plays this year.
As we all know, this is really bad news for your typical sportsbook filled with squares that begin handicapping games with only one requirement, that regardless of any sophisticated thinking, they play the better team. However, these types of runs where the favorites take the money are even more disastrous for the contrarian sportsbettors. When the flashy/pretty teams cover, the contrarian can reach in his back pocket and start shelling out the benjamins. Frankly, I am shocked that this column has a winning record as far as plays go. The odds of a contrarian being a winner for the year so far are along lines of the odds of hosting an Easter egg hunt in a mine field without anyone getting their legs blown off. Sheer luck.
The favorites went 14-0 straight up last week making them 98-32 (75.4%) for the year. They also went 12-2 against the spread, bringing their season long record to 72-54-4 (57%). This has got to end, or you can expect contrarians worldwide to continue to take a beating.
Week 10
Game #1: Washington Redskins -1 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are sticking to the game plan and playing a team that has now become a horrible team in the eyes of the majority of sportsbetters. The Buccaneers are hosting a team that was featured last Monday Night in a flashy defeat of the Philadelphia Eagles. Bettors from all sides of the handicapping world played and won with the Redskins, moving the line from pick to Wash-3-120.
The results from the last 5 weeks reinforce the wrong-headed attitude that the winning approach simply to figure out which team is better than the other, and bet on them. Tampa Bay was dominated last week as their weakness in pass defense was exploited. However, this week it is their rush defense that will play the predominant role in stopping Washington. We'll make the Brave play here and take the slight dog at home.
TOP PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 for $1000 (1 unit)
Game #2: Kansas City +2.5 @ Buffalo Bills
It's really tough for me to eat any chalk this week as I tend to fall into the trap of believing that the dogs are due, no matter the scenario. However, this match-up pits a "pretty" team versus what I call a "struggler". The Kansas City Chiefs win last week, despite its aid from the horrible tripping call by the ref (which was completely ignored by ESPN), was the highlight of the weekend. They are viewed in the minds of squares as an unstoppable offense that has no problem overcoming a lack of defense.
Buffalo on the other hand has come to be viewed as a grinder, only able to squeak out wins via the conservative route. Consensus reports show the public backing the road dog at a 70% clip. Traditionally, when the public is so willing to back a dog, the favorite becomes the team with the value. We'll go ahead and back the home team coming off the bye week and fade the public.
TOP PLAY: Buffalo Bills-2 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
GAME #3: New England Patriots -3 @ Miami Dolphins
I am going to make this one simple. Consensus reports show the public backing this team at almost a 5-1 clip. These son of a bitches have won enough money eating chalk on the road. The bullshit ends here and now. Miami for all the bacon in a pig farm!
TOP PLAY: Miami Dolphins +3 for $1000 (1 unit)
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