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BOOOOOM COMING OFF A SOLID 8-4 WEEKEND. I HAVE WAITED ALL SEASON FOR THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS THERE WILL BE FEWER MEANINGLESS SPOTS AND INCREASED LINE VALUE AS THE PERCEPTION VS REALITY SITUATIONS BEGIN TO UNFOLD. WELL CAN'T SAY IT WAS A GREAT WEEK (COMBINED NFL & NCAAF) BUT IT WAS PROFITABLE PICKING UP A MEAGER THREE TENTHS (+.3) OF A UNIT WHEN IT WAS ALL SAID AND DONE, BUT I WAS STILL EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED IN MY NFL DAY WHERE I HAVE NOW LOST THREE WEEKS STRAIGHT AFTER OPENING THE SEASON WINNING THE FIRST 6 WEEKS. I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 23 WEEKS (86.9%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON IN NCAA AND NFL FOOTBALL. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* ALABAMA +3
2* IOWA STATE +3
2* WYOMING +5
1* KANSAS +34
1* WASHINGTON +13
1* OLE MISS -1.5
1* BOSTON COLLEGE -4.5
Opinions: ARKANSAS STATE -3; MICHIGAN -25.5
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LSU (7 - 1) at ALABAMA (9 - 0)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 3:30 PM
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Analysis
This is a key battle in the SEC West: Alabama is 6-0, LSU is 4-1 in the SEC West. Auburn is 5-1, so an LSU win would create a 3-way tie for first. LSU (7-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is on a roll, winning 6 straight since that collapse against Tennessee. The LSU Tigers offense is averaging 31.8 points, 242 yards passing, 159 yards rushing per game behind sophomore QB JaMarcus Russell and senior RB Joseph Addai (664 yds, 4.9 yds per carry, 7 TDs). The defense is outstanding, allowing 13.9 points, 107 yards rushing, 188 passing per game! LSU is 3-0 SU/ATS on the road beating teams by a 35-14 average (Arizona State, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt). Last season, LSU won 26-10 at home over an injury-depleted Alabama team. The LSU defense dominated the game allowing ‘Bama 82 rush yards on 43 carries. LSU’s offense had 192 rush yards. What a tough task they have this week as they take on an unbeaten Alabama team (9-0 SU, 3-5 ATS. Admit tingly, Alabama's offense has been struggling as they are without their best WR Tyrone Prothro, who broke a leg Oct. 1. The offense is averaging just 12 points in its three SEC games since the loss of Prothro. On the season, the Alabama offense is averaging 24 points, while the great defense is allowing 8.2 points and 243 total yards per game. The ‘Bama ‘D’ is allowing 93.8 yards rushing per game, 3.1 yards per rush.
Do you guys remember what happened last week when Miami absolutely destroyed Virginia Tech. Well, this is the exact same situation in this contest. The Crimson Tide (undefeated this season) coaches and players feel disrespected and feel like they have something to prove this weekend as Miami-Florida jumped over Alabama in the AP poll to No. 3 despite having one loss. If thats not enough motivation, adding fuel to the fire, both players and coaches are well aware of the fact that LSU is favored in Tuscaloosa and are using these intangibles as a rallying cry for Alabama and will come to play with a chip on their shoulder, much as Miami did last week at Virginia Tech. Alabama is 3-1 ATS its last 4 against LSU and 4-0 ATS its last 4 at home to L.S.U. But I think the key factor in this game is whether or not LSU will be able to muster any offense against this suffocating Alabama “D”. This is significant because Alabama has not allowed anyone to top 10 points in any of their last five games and no team has scored more than 21 points on them this season. Ad the fact that LSU checks in at a putrid 1-29-1 ATS as favorites in games in which they fail to score more than 21 points and we have no other choice but to back the undefeated home dog.
Forecast: LSU 10, Alabama 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ALABAMA +3
COLORADO (7 - 2) at IOWA ST (6 - 3)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 7:00 PM
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Analysis
An interesting Big XII game Saturday. Both teams are putting up big numbers and Iowa State appears to have gotten over an early season funk that resulted in a pair of conference losses to a wispy Baylor team and Nebraska. The Buffs (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) have just one loss in league play after Saturday’s convincing 41-12 win over Missouri. Replacement tailback Lawrence Vickers replaced Hugh Charles by scoring four touchdowns and finished with a career-high 85 yards on 18 carries. QB Joel Klatt threw for 253 yards and a touchdown, Mason Crosby hit a 56-yard field goal and CU took a two-game lead over Missouri in the Big 12 North. If the Buffs win this week at Iowa State, also 3-3 in the conference, they'll secure their fourth trip to the conference title game in the last five years. Meanwhile, Iowa State (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) defeated Kansas State 45-17 on Saturday. QB Bret Meyer threw three touchdown passes and Stevie Hicks added 149 yards rushing and a touchdown for the Cyclones who have won three straight and with an additional win would become bowl-eligible for the fifth time in six seasons. The Cyclones are on a three game winning streak in which they are outscoring opponents by an average of 41-13, and their defense has been solid yielding less than 100 yards of rushing per game. .
It’s probably too late for Iowa State to catch the Buffaloes in the Big Twelve North title race, but you’d never know it by the way the Cyclones are playing. A monster win in College Station two weeks ago followed by last week’s massacre of Kansas State is hardly the stuff of a team who has folded its tent. Several team insiders are reporting that Iowa State is extremely fired up for several reasons. First, the Cyclones need to win to stay alive for Big XII North championship, which they shared with Colorado last year, only to lose a spot the in Big XII title game because of their 19-14 loss in Boulder when the Iowa kickers missed two chip-shot FGs. Hence, this is a revenge game for the Clones. Moreover, A victory also gets 5-3 Cyclones closer to a bowl, and this is the last home game for their seniors. For you trend guys, Iowa State 8-1 ATS last 9 as an underdog, with the only non-cover a 27-20 OT loss this year at Nebraska when Cyclones were getting 3½. Colorado is only 1-3 ATS on the road this season. ISU has not needed the points in any of their last three home dog meetings they won them all in straight-up fashion. Caveat Emptor, as I will share this because it scares the hell out of me...Colorado has dominated this series recently, winning 20 out of the past 21 meetings. Ohhh NO! But fuck it, lets back the seniors in their last home game.
Forecast: Colorado 21, Iowa St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON IOWA STATE +3
BYU (5 - 4) at WYOMING (4 - 5)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 6:00 PM
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Analysis
This one could very well be Wyoming HC Joe Glenn's final appearance on the sidelines in Laramie. Plenty of rumors have been circulating where the sought after coach may be heading when the season ends. Unfortunately, his resume will be slightly tainted with a 2nd half collapse. The Cowboys were primed to challenge for Mountain West Supremacy following a 4-1 SU start. But QB Corey Bramlet has been a turnover machine since a 7-turnover nightmare in game #6 against TCU. Wyoming has never recovered from that 28-14 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has gone on a nice run, since they got destroyed at Notre Dame. Last Week BYU just absolutely manhandled UNLV 55-14. The Cougars have averaged nearly 60 points per game in their last two. John Beck is slinging the ball at a very effective clip for BYU. He is completing more than 64 percent of his passes and has thrown 20 touchdown passes. BYU won last year 24-13 and has won two out of the last three in this series.
The lines maker is giving BYU way to much respect for their wins over hapless Air Force & UNLV and those “hot streak players” will pay for it here. Wyoming’s problems have been about turnovers…and that’s really it. If they are somehow able to hang onto the ball, they'll be too quick for the Cougars. BYU is slow and Cowboy WR Jevon Bouknight could be in for a huge afternoon. Again, if they turnovers can be minimized, these teams are about the same offensively. Wyoming owns the defensive edge as the Cowboys allow just 3.5 yards per carry and a solid 6.52 PYPA against. All of this sets up nicely for us Cowboy backers as we are now getting points in their home finale (they would have been touchdown favorites the first week of the season in this contest) and also knowing that they need to win this game in order to stay bowl-eligible. So far we have a better team, playing at home, getting points, with the emotion of trying to win Joe Glenn’s possible last game on Wyoming sidelines. Well that’s not it, all the talk this week has been about the quick sellout of this game as this is the final home game for 19 Wyoming Cowboy seniors and of course senior day. This of course means some additional motivation to play well in front of friends and family. Finally, I will give some mention to the fact that BYU is playing its fifth road game in seven weeks without a bye. This is also a revenge game for Wyoming. Ok…now I’m done. Take the points!
Forecast: Wyoming 34, BYU 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON WYOMING +5
KANSAS (5 - 4) at TEXAS (9 - 0)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 3:30 PM
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Analysis
Bet this game early as the number will go down. Kansas (5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) snapped its 36-game losing streak against Nebraska last Saturday and is riding a two game winning streak. Last weeks 4-15 drubbing of Nebraska was impressive on many front. Kansas lead a balanced offensive attack which totaled 428 yards, gaining 213 yards rushing and 215 yards passing. Senior quarterback Jason Swanson finished 16-of-27 for 215 yards and two touchdown passes. Senior wide receiver Mark Simmons was on the receiving end of both scores, finishing the game with six catches for 100 yards. Capitalizing on the holes created by the offensive line, Green carried the ball 22 times for 100 yards and Cornish carried 10 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. It marked the first time since 1980 that Kansas had two 100-yard rushers and a 100-yard receiver in the same game. The Kansas rush defense, which entered the game ranked second in the nation, held the Cornhuskers to 21 yards on 22 carries. Nebraska found little success through the air as well, finishing with 117 yards passing. Meanwhile, BCS #2, the undefeated Longhorns (9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS) haven't been tested lately. Texas quarterback Vince Young continues his run for the Heisman Trophy, and the Longhorns are steamrolling opponents for more than 278 ypg on the ground. Texas is the No. 2 offense in the nation, and has beaten opponents by an average of more than 40 points.
Is anybody interested in laying 33 points against the #1 ranked rushing defense in the league? Well I’m certainly not. Indeed, the Jayhawks are allowing an incredible 64.1 (1.9 yards per carry) yards per game and have held five of nine opponents to less than 50 yards rushing. Even more amazingly was last weekend statics against a run oriented Nebraska. The Jayhawks held Nebraska to a paltry 21 yards on 22 carries! That’s less then a yard per carry…are you kidding me? Now they are getting almost 5 full TD’s? When these two teams met up last year, Texas needed some questionable calls to go their way when they escaped with a four-point victory as a -22 favorite at Kansas last season. Whats changed since last year? Granted, the Longhorn defense has talented and dominating athletes that will make it difficult for Kansas to score. However, logic dictates that this spread is way too high and I expect that Texas will have more difficulty moving the ball this week.
Forecast: Texas 28, Kansas 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS +34
WASHINGTON (1 - 8) at ARIZONA (3 - 6)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 6:00 PM
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Analysis
Ty Willingham's initial campaign in Seattle continues to fall apart as the Huskies dropped to 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS on the year with an 18-10 loss at home to Oregon St. It was Washington's 14th straight Pac 10 loss. Willingham pulled out all the stops, benching QB Isaiah Stanback and inserting ****** Durocher to start the 2nd half, but it made no difference as the offense was held to just 226 total yards. Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off a huge victory, knocking UCLA from the ranks of the unbeatens with a 52-14 drubbing of the Bruins. The Wildcats went with Willie Tuitama at quarterback, and he threw two early scores that set the tone. Along the way the Wildcats rolled up a season-high in points and yards (519).
This is a classic situation where last weeks results (i.e. Arizona’s incredible 52-14 win again UCLA) has made Mr. Line maker over react. This of course is not very goot for those who each chalk for a living, but for us dog bettors this is heaven. Although Washington has lost 18 of its last twenty games, a look inside the numbers shows that there has been and continues to be significant improvement in this squad. Incredibly enough for a team with a 1-8 record, the Huskies have posted the first score of the game in seven of nine contests this season. Only against Notre Dame on September 24, and last week against Oregon State has the UW's opponent scored first in a game this year. In the seven games in which the Huskies have scored first, they've opened with a touchdown four times and a field goal on three occasions. In addition, although the Huskies' record at this point is the same as it was last season, Washington has shown marked improvement in a number of key statistics. The Huskies are doing considerably better in both the passing and rushing games, as they're scoring more and they've cut down significantly on turnovers. In addition, the Huskies played only one ranked opponent in their first eight games last year (No. 1 USC in the seventh game) while they have faced five ranked opponents through eight games in 2005.
Most of the talk surrounded the theory of Arizona’s Mike Stoops playing for next season with the insertion of QB Willie Tuitama who rejuvenate the Arizona offense. But there is one significant difference between the Wildcat’s performances the last couples of weeks and this weeks situation. All of Tuitama’s heroics have come with Arizona as an underdog and that is significant as the favorite in this series is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings. Arizona is also 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home finales and a horrible 2-13 ATS in their last 15 chances as home chalk. Mark Lawrence come foreward with this gem of a trend....the Arizona Wilcats are 1-33-1 ATS at home in games in which they surrender more than 28 points. I guess its possible Washington could score 28 but in either case Arizona is no way 13 points better then Washington. Take the nice value in the Dog.
Forecast: Arizona 28, Washington 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON WASHINGTON +13
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* ALABAMA +3
2* IOWA STATE +3
2* WYOMING +5
1* KANSAS +34
1* WASHINGTON +13
1* OLE MISS -1.5
1* BOSTON COLLEGE -4.5
Opinions: ARKANSAS STATE -3; MICHIGAN -25.5
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LSU (7 - 1) at ALABAMA (9 - 0)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
This is a key battle in the SEC West: Alabama is 6-0, LSU is 4-1 in the SEC West. Auburn is 5-1, so an LSU win would create a 3-way tie for first. LSU (7-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is on a roll, winning 6 straight since that collapse against Tennessee. The LSU Tigers offense is averaging 31.8 points, 242 yards passing, 159 yards rushing per game behind sophomore QB JaMarcus Russell and senior RB Joseph Addai (664 yds, 4.9 yds per carry, 7 TDs). The defense is outstanding, allowing 13.9 points, 107 yards rushing, 188 passing per game! LSU is 3-0 SU/ATS on the road beating teams by a 35-14 average (Arizona State, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt). Last season, LSU won 26-10 at home over an injury-depleted Alabama team. The LSU defense dominated the game allowing ‘Bama 82 rush yards on 43 carries. LSU’s offense had 192 rush yards. What a tough task they have this week as they take on an unbeaten Alabama team (9-0 SU, 3-5 ATS. Admit tingly, Alabama's offense has been struggling as they are without their best WR Tyrone Prothro, who broke a leg Oct. 1. The offense is averaging just 12 points in its three SEC games since the loss of Prothro. On the season, the Alabama offense is averaging 24 points, while the great defense is allowing 8.2 points and 243 total yards per game. The ‘Bama ‘D’ is allowing 93.8 yards rushing per game, 3.1 yards per rush.
Do you guys remember what happened last week when Miami absolutely destroyed Virginia Tech. Well, this is the exact same situation in this contest. The Crimson Tide (undefeated this season) coaches and players feel disrespected and feel like they have something to prove this weekend as Miami-Florida jumped over Alabama in the AP poll to No. 3 despite having one loss. If thats not enough motivation, adding fuel to the fire, both players and coaches are well aware of the fact that LSU is favored in Tuscaloosa and are using these intangibles as a rallying cry for Alabama and will come to play with a chip on their shoulder, much as Miami did last week at Virginia Tech. Alabama is 3-1 ATS its last 4 against LSU and 4-0 ATS its last 4 at home to L.S.U. But I think the key factor in this game is whether or not LSU will be able to muster any offense against this suffocating Alabama “D”. This is significant because Alabama has not allowed anyone to top 10 points in any of their last five games and no team has scored more than 21 points on them this season. Ad the fact that LSU checks in at a putrid 1-29-1 ATS as favorites in games in which they fail to score more than 21 points and we have no other choice but to back the undefeated home dog.
Forecast: LSU 10, Alabama 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ALABAMA +3
COLORADO (7 - 2) at IOWA ST (6 - 3)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 7:00 PM
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An interesting Big XII game Saturday. Both teams are putting up big numbers and Iowa State appears to have gotten over an early season funk that resulted in a pair of conference losses to a wispy Baylor team and Nebraska. The Buffs (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) have just one loss in league play after Saturday’s convincing 41-12 win over Missouri. Replacement tailback Lawrence Vickers replaced Hugh Charles by scoring four touchdowns and finished with a career-high 85 yards on 18 carries. QB Joel Klatt threw for 253 yards and a touchdown, Mason Crosby hit a 56-yard field goal and CU took a two-game lead over Missouri in the Big 12 North. If the Buffs win this week at Iowa State, also 3-3 in the conference, they'll secure their fourth trip to the conference title game in the last five years. Meanwhile, Iowa State (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) defeated Kansas State 45-17 on Saturday. QB Bret Meyer threw three touchdown passes and Stevie Hicks added 149 yards rushing and a touchdown for the Cyclones who have won three straight and with an additional win would become bowl-eligible for the fifth time in six seasons. The Cyclones are on a three game winning streak in which they are outscoring opponents by an average of 41-13, and their defense has been solid yielding less than 100 yards of rushing per game. .
It’s probably too late for Iowa State to catch the Buffaloes in the Big Twelve North title race, but you’d never know it by the way the Cyclones are playing. A monster win in College Station two weeks ago followed by last week’s massacre of Kansas State is hardly the stuff of a team who has folded its tent. Several team insiders are reporting that Iowa State is extremely fired up for several reasons. First, the Cyclones need to win to stay alive for Big XII North championship, which they shared with Colorado last year, only to lose a spot the in Big XII title game because of their 19-14 loss in Boulder when the Iowa kickers missed two chip-shot FGs. Hence, this is a revenge game for the Clones. Moreover, A victory also gets 5-3 Cyclones closer to a bowl, and this is the last home game for their seniors. For you trend guys, Iowa State 8-1 ATS last 9 as an underdog, with the only non-cover a 27-20 OT loss this year at Nebraska when Cyclones were getting 3½. Colorado is only 1-3 ATS on the road this season. ISU has not needed the points in any of their last three home dog meetings they won them all in straight-up fashion. Caveat Emptor, as I will share this because it scares the hell out of me...Colorado has dominated this series recently, winning 20 out of the past 21 meetings. Ohhh NO! But fuck it, lets back the seniors in their last home game.
Forecast: Colorado 21, Iowa St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON IOWA STATE +3
BYU (5 - 4) at WYOMING (4 - 5)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 6:00 PM
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This one could very well be Wyoming HC Joe Glenn's final appearance on the sidelines in Laramie. Plenty of rumors have been circulating where the sought after coach may be heading when the season ends. Unfortunately, his resume will be slightly tainted with a 2nd half collapse. The Cowboys were primed to challenge for Mountain West Supremacy following a 4-1 SU start. But QB Corey Bramlet has been a turnover machine since a 7-turnover nightmare in game #6 against TCU. Wyoming has never recovered from that 28-14 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has gone on a nice run, since they got destroyed at Notre Dame. Last Week BYU just absolutely manhandled UNLV 55-14. The Cougars have averaged nearly 60 points per game in their last two. John Beck is slinging the ball at a very effective clip for BYU. He is completing more than 64 percent of his passes and has thrown 20 touchdown passes. BYU won last year 24-13 and has won two out of the last three in this series.
The lines maker is giving BYU way to much respect for their wins over hapless Air Force & UNLV and those “hot streak players” will pay for it here. Wyoming’s problems have been about turnovers…and that’s really it. If they are somehow able to hang onto the ball, they'll be too quick for the Cougars. BYU is slow and Cowboy WR Jevon Bouknight could be in for a huge afternoon. Again, if they turnovers can be minimized, these teams are about the same offensively. Wyoming owns the defensive edge as the Cowboys allow just 3.5 yards per carry and a solid 6.52 PYPA against. All of this sets up nicely for us Cowboy backers as we are now getting points in their home finale (they would have been touchdown favorites the first week of the season in this contest) and also knowing that they need to win this game in order to stay bowl-eligible. So far we have a better team, playing at home, getting points, with the emotion of trying to win Joe Glenn’s possible last game on Wyoming sidelines. Well that’s not it, all the talk this week has been about the quick sellout of this game as this is the final home game for 19 Wyoming Cowboy seniors and of course senior day. This of course means some additional motivation to play well in front of friends and family. Finally, I will give some mention to the fact that BYU is playing its fifth road game in seven weeks without a bye. This is also a revenge game for Wyoming. Ok…now I’m done. Take the points!
Forecast: Wyoming 34, BYU 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON WYOMING +5
KANSAS (5 - 4) at TEXAS (9 - 0)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
Bet this game early as the number will go down. Kansas (5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) snapped its 36-game losing streak against Nebraska last Saturday and is riding a two game winning streak. Last weeks 4-15 drubbing of Nebraska was impressive on many front. Kansas lead a balanced offensive attack which totaled 428 yards, gaining 213 yards rushing and 215 yards passing. Senior quarterback Jason Swanson finished 16-of-27 for 215 yards and two touchdown passes. Senior wide receiver Mark Simmons was on the receiving end of both scores, finishing the game with six catches for 100 yards. Capitalizing on the holes created by the offensive line, Green carried the ball 22 times for 100 yards and Cornish carried 10 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. It marked the first time since 1980 that Kansas had two 100-yard rushers and a 100-yard receiver in the same game. The Kansas rush defense, which entered the game ranked second in the nation, held the Cornhuskers to 21 yards on 22 carries. Nebraska found little success through the air as well, finishing with 117 yards passing. Meanwhile, BCS #2, the undefeated Longhorns (9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS) haven't been tested lately. Texas quarterback Vince Young continues his run for the Heisman Trophy, and the Longhorns are steamrolling opponents for more than 278 ypg on the ground. Texas is the No. 2 offense in the nation, and has beaten opponents by an average of more than 40 points.
Is anybody interested in laying 33 points against the #1 ranked rushing defense in the league? Well I’m certainly not. Indeed, the Jayhawks are allowing an incredible 64.1 (1.9 yards per carry) yards per game and have held five of nine opponents to less than 50 yards rushing. Even more amazingly was last weekend statics against a run oriented Nebraska. The Jayhawks held Nebraska to a paltry 21 yards on 22 carries! That’s less then a yard per carry…are you kidding me? Now they are getting almost 5 full TD’s? When these two teams met up last year, Texas needed some questionable calls to go their way when they escaped with a four-point victory as a -22 favorite at Kansas last season. Whats changed since last year? Granted, the Longhorn defense has talented and dominating athletes that will make it difficult for Kansas to score. However, logic dictates that this spread is way too high and I expect that Texas will have more difficulty moving the ball this week.
Forecast: Texas 28, Kansas 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS +34
WASHINGTON (1 - 8) at ARIZONA (3 - 6)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 6:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ty Willingham's initial campaign in Seattle continues to fall apart as the Huskies dropped to 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS on the year with an 18-10 loss at home to Oregon St. It was Washington's 14th straight Pac 10 loss. Willingham pulled out all the stops, benching QB Isaiah Stanback and inserting ****** Durocher to start the 2nd half, but it made no difference as the offense was held to just 226 total yards. Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off a huge victory, knocking UCLA from the ranks of the unbeatens with a 52-14 drubbing of the Bruins. The Wildcats went with Willie Tuitama at quarterback, and he threw two early scores that set the tone. Along the way the Wildcats rolled up a season-high in points and yards (519).
This is a classic situation where last weeks results (i.e. Arizona’s incredible 52-14 win again UCLA) has made Mr. Line maker over react. This of course is not very goot for those who each chalk for a living, but for us dog bettors this is heaven. Although Washington has lost 18 of its last twenty games, a look inside the numbers shows that there has been and continues to be significant improvement in this squad. Incredibly enough for a team with a 1-8 record, the Huskies have posted the first score of the game in seven of nine contests this season. Only against Notre Dame on September 24, and last week against Oregon State has the UW's opponent scored first in a game this year. In the seven games in which the Huskies have scored first, they've opened with a touchdown four times and a field goal on three occasions. In addition, although the Huskies' record at this point is the same as it was last season, Washington has shown marked improvement in a number of key statistics. The Huskies are doing considerably better in both the passing and rushing games, as they're scoring more and they've cut down significantly on turnovers. In addition, the Huskies played only one ranked opponent in their first eight games last year (No. 1 USC in the seventh game) while they have faced five ranked opponents through eight games in 2005.
Most of the talk surrounded the theory of Arizona’s Mike Stoops playing for next season with the insertion of QB Willie Tuitama who rejuvenate the Arizona offense. But there is one significant difference between the Wildcat’s performances the last couples of weeks and this weeks situation. All of Tuitama’s heroics have come with Arizona as an underdog and that is significant as the favorite in this series is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings. Arizona is also 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home finales and a horrible 2-13 ATS in their last 15 chances as home chalk. Mark Lawrence come foreward with this gem of a trend....the Arizona Wilcats are 1-33-1 ATS at home in games in which they surrender more than 28 points. I guess its possible Washington could score 28 but in either case Arizona is no way 13 points better then Washington. Take the nice value in the Dog.
Forecast: Arizona 28, Washington 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON WASHINGTON +13
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