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Confirmed Ncaa Plays (week #11) (update #1)

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  • Confirmed Ncaa Plays (week #11) (update #1)

    BOOOOOM COMING OFF A SOLID 8-4 WEEKEND. I HAVE WAITED ALL SEASON FOR THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS THERE WILL BE FEWER MEANINGLESS SPOTS AND INCREASED LINE VALUE AS THE PERCEPTION VS REALITY SITUATIONS BEGIN TO UNFOLD. WELL CAN'T SAY IT WAS A GREAT WEEK (COMBINED NFL & NCAAF) BUT IT WAS PROFITABLE PICKING UP A MEAGER THREE TENTHS (+.3) OF A UNIT WHEN IT WAS ALL SAID AND DONE, BUT I WAS STILL EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED IN MY NFL DAY WHERE I HAVE NOW LOST THREE WEEKS STRAIGHT AFTER OPENING THE SEASON WINNING THE FIRST 6 WEEKS. I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 20 OUT OF THE LAST 23 WEEKS (86.9%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON IN NCAA AND NFL FOOTBALL. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.

    NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.

    8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
    6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
    5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES

    4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
    3* STRONG SELECTION
    2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
    1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER

    OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
    --------------------------------------------------
    SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
    2* WYOMING +5
    1* KANSAS +34
    --------------------------------------------------
    BYU (5 - 4) at WYOMING (4 - 5)
    Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 6:00 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    This one could very well be Wyoming HC Joe Glenn's final appearance on the sidelines in Laramie. Plenty of rumors have been circulating where the sought after coach may be heading when the season ends. Unfortunately, his resume will be slightly tainted with a 2nd half collapse. The Cowboys were primed to challenge for Mountain West Supremacy following a 4-1 SU start. But QB Corey Bramlet has been a turnover machine since a 7-turnover nightmare in game #6 against TCU. Wyoming has never recovered from that 28-14 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has gone on a nice run, since they got destroyed at Notre Dame. Last Week BYU just absolutely manhandled UNLV 55-14. The Cougars have averaged nearly 60 points per game in their last two. John Beck is slinging the ball at a very effective clip for BYU. He is completing more than 64 percent of his passes and has thrown 20 touchdown passes. BYU won last year 24-13 and has won two out of the last three in this series.

    The lines maker is giving BYU way to much respect for their wins over hapless Air Force & UNLV and those “hot streak players” will pay for it here. Wyoming’s problems have been about turnovers…and that’s really it. If they are somehow able to hang onto the ball, they'll be too quick for the Cougars. BYU is slow and Cowboy WR Jevon Bouknight could be in for a huge afternoon. Again, if they turnovers can be minimized, these teams are about the same offensively. Wyoming owns the defensive edge as the Cowboys allow just 3.5 yards per carry and a solid 6.52 PYPA against. All of this sets up nicely for us Cowboy backers as we are now getting points in their home finale (they would have been touchdown favorites the first week of the season in this contest) and also knowing that they need to win this game in order to stay bowl-eligible. So far we have a better team, playing at home, getting points, with the emotion of trying to win Joe Glenn’s possible last game on Wyoming sidelines. Well that’s not it, all the talk this week has been about the quick sellout of this game as this is the final home game for 19 Wyoming Cowboy seniors and of course senior day. This of course means some additional motivation to play well in front of friends and family. Finally, I will give some mention to the fact that BYU is playing its fifth road game in seven weeks without a bye. This is also a revenge game for Wyoming. Ok…now I’m done. Take the points!

    Forecast: Wyoming 34, BYU 24
    PLAY 2* UNITS ON WYOMING +5

    KANSAS (5 - 4) at TEXAS (9 - 0)
    Week 11 Saturday, 11/12/2005 3:30 PM
    vs

    Analysis

    Bet this game early as the number will go down. Kansas (5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) snapped its 36-game losing streak against Nebraska last Saturday and is riding a two game winning streak. Last weeks 4-15 drubbing of Nebraska was impressive on many front. Kansas lead a balanced offensive attack which totaled 428 yards, gaining 213 yards rushing and 215 yards passing. Senior quarterback Jason Swanson finished 16-of-27 for 215 yards and two touchdown passes. Senior wide receiver Mark Simmons was on the receiving end of both scores, finishing the game with six catches for 100 yards. Capitalizing on the holes created by the offensive line, Green carried the ball 22 times for 100 yards and Cornish carried 10 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. It marked the first time since 1980 that Kansas had two 100-yard rushers and a 100-yard receiver in the same game. The Kansas rush defense, which entered the game ranked second in the nation, held the Cornhuskers to 21 yards on 22 carries. Nebraska found little success through the air as well, finishing with 117 yards passing. Meanwhile, BCS #2, the undefeated Longhorns (9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS) haven't been tested lately. Texas quarterback Vince Young continues his run for the Heisman Trophy, and the Longhorns are steamrolling opponents for more than 278 ypg on the ground. Texas is the No. 2 offense in the nation, and has beaten opponents by an average of more than 40 points.

    Is anybody interested in laying 33 points against the #1 ranked rushing defense in the league? Well I’m certainly not. Indeed, the Jayhawks are allowing an incredible 64.1 (1.9 yards per carry) yards per game and have held five of nine opponents to less than 50 yards rushing. Even more amazingly was last weekend statics against a run oriented Nebraska. The Jayhawks held Nebraska to a paltry 21 yards on 22 carries! That’s less then a yard per carry…are you kidding me? Now they are getting almost 5 full TD’s? When these two teams met up last year, Texas needed some questionable calls to go their way when they escaped with a four-point victory as a -22 favorite at Kansas last season. Whats changed since last year? Granted, the Longhorn defense has talented and dominating athletes that will make it difficult for Kansas to score. However, logic dictates that this spread is way too high and I expect that Texas will have more difficulty moving the ball this week.

    Forecast: Texas 28, Kansas 10
    PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS +34

  • #2
    GL Guru!
    It's always noon somewhere!

    My Fish and Aquariums

    Griffey's Posted Record

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    • #3
      gl to ya guru---like em both---kapt


      Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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      • #4
        I love Wyoming straight up as a home doggie - good luck!

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        • #5
          good luck Guru

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