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Here are some essential money management reminders.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, NEVER BET MORE MONEY THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Remember, this is gambling. You don't have total control of the situation. Even if your analysis is right on, you can still lose a football bet because of weather, injuries, a fluke play, or a bad call. Realize that once you make your bet, the outcome is in the hands of over-excited college youngsters, sometimes-disinterested NFL millionaires, placekickers from foreign lands, coaches who are sometimes not the brightest, and/or overweight officials, all of whom are far less concerned about the final score margin of the game than you are. If losses are forcing you to change your lifestyle or are negatively affecting your personal life, you should back off. If losses are making you desperate and depressed, stop until you get a grip on yourself.
ESTABLISH A SPECIFIC SPORTSBETTING BANKROLL. Your bankroll should only include money that is not essential for anything else, especially for food, rent, mortgage payments, taxes, or the welfare of your family. Wagering such essential funds on a ball game is simply stupid and irresponsible. Once you have all your essentials covered, you can establish some of your remaining discretionary "entertainment" funds as your sportswagering bankroll. If you lose all of those funds, you should consider your sportsbetting "on hold" until you once again have enough money to establish a new bankroll.
DECIDE HOW MUCH "ONE UNIT" WILL BE FOR YOU. For most people, a unit size of 3 to 4 percent of your total bankroll is about right. For some people, that's $30 or $40. For others, $150 or $200. Some, $300 or $400. For others, $3,000 or $4,000. Calculate the size of one unit for you based on your own sportsbetting bankroll.
TRY TO EMPLOY A PERCENTAGE-OF-BANKROLL METHOD. That is, if your bankroll declines significantly, you can stick with the same 3 to 4 percent of it for one unit, but the actual amount of the unit will be smaller because the size of your bankroll is smaller. If you use this simple percentage-of-bankroll approach, you will find it easier to keep your ego and emotions out of your wagering because you know you are employing a pre-determined discipline that makes sense.
DON'T GET BLOWN OUT EARLY IN THE SEASON. It's a long season. There will be lots of games. You're going to learn a lot about teams in the first two or three weeks of play. Try to restrain your enthusiasm early, and save a good portion of your speculative bankroll for later when you know more about the teams and when the games become more formful. If you find yourself playing too many games, cut the amount you bet on each game. For NFL preseason games, consider establishing a smaller unit that is about one-half or two-thirds of your regular-season wagers in recognition of the fact those games are truly "exhibitions" and thus tend to have a larger "X Factor" than games in the regular season.
AVOID IMPULSE BETTING. It's tough enough to beat the oddsmaker even when you have thorough knowledge of the teams and of all the factors at work in a football game. So it's very unlikely you're going to be successful over the course of the season if you bet on games merely because you suddenly get a good "feeling" about them. If you want to win, you can't guess at games. You should have good, solid reasons before making a play. Keep the preponderance of edges on your side.
DON'T PLUNGE. As pointed out above, it's best to employ a percentage-of-bankroll method when deciding how much to bet on games, usually about 3 or 4 percent of your bankroll on one-unit, regular plays; 5 to 6 percent on "Top Choice" games that have a few more edges going for them; 7 to 8 percent on only the few best-of-the-best situations pf the year. If you bet more than twice as much on any one game, you could be asking for trouble, because if you lose just a couple of those plays, you'll have a hard time achieving a profitable season even if you have a solid winning handicapping percentage! That thought should be anathema to you.
NEVER CHASE YOUR MONEY. This is probably the worst money-management mistake of all! Always go with well-handicapped, high-percentage plays. It's inevitable that some of them won't work out, if for no other reason than a few early turnovers, in-game injuries, or game-altering special teams plays. But if you think you're going to immediately get your money back that night or the next day by making low-percentage "guess" wagers to immediately make up for a few bad beats in high-percentage situations, you're most likely going to be severely disappointed. Learn to take your losses "like a man" (even if you're a woman). Survive to battle the oddsmaker another day. If you know what you're doing and maintain your poise, you'll eventually get your share of winners.
DON'T BET ON TOO MANY GAMES. It is true in sportsbetting that "a play is a play is a play." Inevitably there are some weeks in the football season that offer more high-percentage plays than other weeks. If there appear to you to be more good plays than normal some week, it's usually best to decide on the total portion of your bankroll you intend to risk that week (usually no more than 30-35 percent) and then divide that money into smaller-than-normal units, thus wagering the same total amount over the greater number of games.
DON'T BET ON "BAD NUMBERS." It's difficult enough to win when the pointspreads are "fair." Most bookmakers these days, even the legal ones in Nevada and "offshore," tend to move their pointspreads faster and farther than ever, especially when there seems to be a consensus move on a popular team. If you consistently lay 5½ points when the "real" spread should be 3½, or 8 points when the "real" spread is 6½, or if you take only 3 points on an underdog when the consensus line is actually +4, it is going to be very difficult for you to come out ahead in the long run. In sportsbetting, it is usually best to anticipate the line moves caused by the "public." Unless you know your wager is going against the public consensus on a game, it's usually better to make your plays earlier in the week rather than later. If you anticipate successfully, you will find yourself laying smaller "prices" on the favorites you play and getting more points on your underdogs. (This is another reason why it's best to avoid just-before-the-game impulse wagers.)
BE CAREFUL WITH EXOTIC WAGERS. For most professionals, there's nothing like making a single, solid wager on a happening, hard-trying team at good pointspread value. Make enough of those bets and you'll usually have a nice, winning season. Most professional handicappers are not very enamored with exotic wagers such as teasers and parlays. Many of them don't even like over/under wagers. And, it usually takes lots of experience to become proficient with half-time wagers. However, sportsbooks LOVE their customers to make lots and lots of exotic wagers, the more the merrier! Parlays, teasers, totals, half-times, propositions, whatever. The more combinations, the better. Why? Because the sportsbooks know there's a greater chance for the public to screw up its high-percentage wagers by tying them to lots of guesses and low-percentage plays. The bookies want you to bet all the TV games, especially if you're just guessing, especially if you're trying to "get out" for the week. They love their clients to make as many uninformed, low-percentage, undisciplined, poor-value, high-risk, sudden-impulse bets as possible, at "bad numbers," especially if those customers have had a few cocktails. Because that's what sportsbooks WANT you to do is why you SHOULDN'T do it.
DON'T BET ON GAMES JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE ON TV. Betting a game merely because it's on TV is one of the worst criteria for making a wager. If you're going to bet on such games just because they're televised--and it's somewhat understandable if you are, given the number of high-profile TV games these days--you should do so at a "recreational" wagering level. A "recreational" unit should be about 25 or 30 percent of your normal wager. If you win, great. But, if you're under .500 on those fun-to-watch but tough-to-call TV games, you'll still have a good chance to have a winning season because of your high-percentage, full-unit plays.
CONSIDER BETTING A LITTLE B IT MORE WHEN YOU'RE WINNING. If you're consistently picking winners week after week and seem to be in tune with the season, you should try to maximize your return while you're in a winning rhythm. Slightly increase the size of the unit you're wagering as your bankroll increases. And you might even consider adding a game or two to your weekly list, but only as long as you keep hitting that solid winning percentage. Similarly, lower the size and number of your wagers when you're in a losing rhythm or your preferred handicapping style doesn't seem to be working that season. Your style might not win every year; nobodies does. Remember, the amount of money you win is more important than your winning percentage.
BEWARE OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES. In handicapping terms, exogenous variables are things outside of sportsbetting that might effect your success. If you're extremely tired, or under an abnormal amount of stress, or having marital problems, or ill, or drunk, or greatly out of your normal handicapping routine for any other reason, your concentration, logic and discipline are quite likely to be affected. It's important for you to recognize these distracting variables and to either limit your wagers for a while or to avoid them entirely, at least until circumstances return to normal. Your surest bet is the knowledge that your sportsbook is EAGER for you to wager when you are drunk, or ill, or "on tilt," or under great personal stress.
LASTLY, IF THINGS AREN'T GOING YOUR WAY, BACK OFF! If you're in a losing rhythm, or absorbing an inordinate number of bad beats, reduce the number of your wagers or cut the size of your wagers, or both. Don't be stubborn about it, and never "double up." Sportsbetting, like life, is a mind game. Pressing only makes things worse. If you are pressing, take a week off. Take two weeks. Relax. Regain your perspective on the season. Examine your previous wagers. Then, just try to hit a "line drive up the middle" with a wager or two before you try to hit a "grand slam." Remember, some seasons will be better for your handicapping style than others. If you're using good handicapping techniques and disciplined money management, by and by things will turn around.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, NEVER BET MORE MONEY THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Remember, this is gambling. You don't have total control of the situation. Even if your analysis is right on, you can still lose a football bet because of weather, injuries, a fluke play, or a bad call. Realize that once you make your bet, the outcome is in the hands of over-excited college youngsters, sometimes-disinterested NFL millionaires, placekickers from foreign lands, coaches who are sometimes not the brightest, and/or overweight officials, all of whom are far less concerned about the final score margin of the game than you are. If losses are forcing you to change your lifestyle or are negatively affecting your personal life, you should back off. If losses are making you desperate and depressed, stop until you get a grip on yourself.
ESTABLISH A SPECIFIC SPORTSBETTING BANKROLL. Your bankroll should only include money that is not essential for anything else, especially for food, rent, mortgage payments, taxes, or the welfare of your family. Wagering such essential funds on a ball game is simply stupid and irresponsible. Once you have all your essentials covered, you can establish some of your remaining discretionary "entertainment" funds as your sportswagering bankroll. If you lose all of those funds, you should consider your sportsbetting "on hold" until you once again have enough money to establish a new bankroll.
DECIDE HOW MUCH "ONE UNIT" WILL BE FOR YOU. For most people, a unit size of 3 to 4 percent of your total bankroll is about right. For some people, that's $30 or $40. For others, $150 or $200. Some, $300 or $400. For others, $3,000 or $4,000. Calculate the size of one unit for you based on your own sportsbetting bankroll.
TRY TO EMPLOY A PERCENTAGE-OF-BANKROLL METHOD. That is, if your bankroll declines significantly, you can stick with the same 3 to 4 percent of it for one unit, but the actual amount of the unit will be smaller because the size of your bankroll is smaller. If you use this simple percentage-of-bankroll approach, you will find it easier to keep your ego and emotions out of your wagering because you know you are employing a pre-determined discipline that makes sense.
DON'T GET BLOWN OUT EARLY IN THE SEASON. It's a long season. There will be lots of games. You're going to learn a lot about teams in the first two or three weeks of play. Try to restrain your enthusiasm early, and save a good portion of your speculative bankroll for later when you know more about the teams and when the games become more formful. If you find yourself playing too many games, cut the amount you bet on each game. For NFL preseason games, consider establishing a smaller unit that is about one-half or two-thirds of your regular-season wagers in recognition of the fact those games are truly "exhibitions" and thus tend to have a larger "X Factor" than games in the regular season.
AVOID IMPULSE BETTING. It's tough enough to beat the oddsmaker even when you have thorough knowledge of the teams and of all the factors at work in a football game. So it's very unlikely you're going to be successful over the course of the season if you bet on games merely because you suddenly get a good "feeling" about them. If you want to win, you can't guess at games. You should have good, solid reasons before making a play. Keep the preponderance of edges on your side.
DON'T PLUNGE. As pointed out above, it's best to employ a percentage-of-bankroll method when deciding how much to bet on games, usually about 3 or 4 percent of your bankroll on one-unit, regular plays; 5 to 6 percent on "Top Choice" games that have a few more edges going for them; 7 to 8 percent on only the few best-of-the-best situations pf the year. If you bet more than twice as much on any one game, you could be asking for trouble, because if you lose just a couple of those plays, you'll have a hard time achieving a profitable season even if you have a solid winning handicapping percentage! That thought should be anathema to you.
NEVER CHASE YOUR MONEY. This is probably the worst money-management mistake of all! Always go with well-handicapped, high-percentage plays. It's inevitable that some of them won't work out, if for no other reason than a few early turnovers, in-game injuries, or game-altering special teams plays. But if you think you're going to immediately get your money back that night or the next day by making low-percentage "guess" wagers to immediately make up for a few bad beats in high-percentage situations, you're most likely going to be severely disappointed. Learn to take your losses "like a man" (even if you're a woman). Survive to battle the oddsmaker another day. If you know what you're doing and maintain your poise, you'll eventually get your share of winners.
DON'T BET ON TOO MANY GAMES. It is true in sportsbetting that "a play is a play is a play." Inevitably there are some weeks in the football season that offer more high-percentage plays than other weeks. If there appear to you to be more good plays than normal some week, it's usually best to decide on the total portion of your bankroll you intend to risk that week (usually no more than 30-35 percent) and then divide that money into smaller-than-normal units, thus wagering the same total amount over the greater number of games.
DON'T BET ON "BAD NUMBERS." It's difficult enough to win when the pointspreads are "fair." Most bookmakers these days, even the legal ones in Nevada and "offshore," tend to move their pointspreads faster and farther than ever, especially when there seems to be a consensus move on a popular team. If you consistently lay 5½ points when the "real" spread should be 3½, or 8 points when the "real" spread is 6½, or if you take only 3 points on an underdog when the consensus line is actually +4, it is going to be very difficult for you to come out ahead in the long run. In sportsbetting, it is usually best to anticipate the line moves caused by the "public." Unless you know your wager is going against the public consensus on a game, it's usually better to make your plays earlier in the week rather than later. If you anticipate successfully, you will find yourself laying smaller "prices" on the favorites you play and getting more points on your underdogs. (This is another reason why it's best to avoid just-before-the-game impulse wagers.)
BE CAREFUL WITH EXOTIC WAGERS. For most professionals, there's nothing like making a single, solid wager on a happening, hard-trying team at good pointspread value. Make enough of those bets and you'll usually have a nice, winning season. Most professional handicappers are not very enamored with exotic wagers such as teasers and parlays. Many of them don't even like over/under wagers. And, it usually takes lots of experience to become proficient with half-time wagers. However, sportsbooks LOVE their customers to make lots and lots of exotic wagers, the more the merrier! Parlays, teasers, totals, half-times, propositions, whatever. The more combinations, the better. Why? Because the sportsbooks know there's a greater chance for the public to screw up its high-percentage wagers by tying them to lots of guesses and low-percentage plays. The bookies want you to bet all the TV games, especially if you're just guessing, especially if you're trying to "get out" for the week. They love their clients to make as many uninformed, low-percentage, undisciplined, poor-value, high-risk, sudden-impulse bets as possible, at "bad numbers," especially if those customers have had a few cocktails. Because that's what sportsbooks WANT you to do is why you SHOULDN'T do it.
DON'T BET ON GAMES JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE ON TV. Betting a game merely because it's on TV is one of the worst criteria for making a wager. If you're going to bet on such games just because they're televised--and it's somewhat understandable if you are, given the number of high-profile TV games these days--you should do so at a "recreational" wagering level. A "recreational" unit should be about 25 or 30 percent of your normal wager. If you win, great. But, if you're under .500 on those fun-to-watch but tough-to-call TV games, you'll still have a good chance to have a winning season because of your high-percentage, full-unit plays.
CONSIDER BETTING A LITTLE B IT MORE WHEN YOU'RE WINNING. If you're consistently picking winners week after week and seem to be in tune with the season, you should try to maximize your return while you're in a winning rhythm. Slightly increase the size of the unit you're wagering as your bankroll increases. And you might even consider adding a game or two to your weekly list, but only as long as you keep hitting that solid winning percentage. Similarly, lower the size and number of your wagers when you're in a losing rhythm or your preferred handicapping style doesn't seem to be working that season. Your style might not win every year; nobodies does. Remember, the amount of money you win is more important than your winning percentage.
BEWARE OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES. In handicapping terms, exogenous variables are things outside of sportsbetting that might effect your success. If you're extremely tired, or under an abnormal amount of stress, or having marital problems, or ill, or drunk, or greatly out of your normal handicapping routine for any other reason, your concentration, logic and discipline are quite likely to be affected. It's important for you to recognize these distracting variables and to either limit your wagers for a while or to avoid them entirely, at least until circumstances return to normal. Your surest bet is the knowledge that your sportsbook is EAGER for you to wager when you are drunk, or ill, or "on tilt," or under great personal stress.
LASTLY, IF THINGS AREN'T GOING YOUR WAY, BACK OFF! If you're in a losing rhythm, or absorbing an inordinate number of bad beats, reduce the number of your wagers or cut the size of your wagers, or both. Don't be stubborn about it, and never "double up." Sportsbetting, like life, is a mind game. Pressing only makes things worse. If you are pressing, take a week off. Take two weeks. Relax. Regain your perspective on the season. Examine your previous wagers. Then, just try to hit a "line drive up the middle" with a wager or two before you try to hit a "grand slam." Remember, some seasons will be better for your handicapping style than others. If you're using good handicapping techniques and disciplined money management, by and by things will turn around.
