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Sagarin Ratings NFL & NCAA
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl05.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt05.htmComment
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harmon NFL:
*Detroit 21 Arizona 17 -- The Lions are not particularly solid on offense or defense, but they've managed to pull out some victories. The Cardinals might be a year away from making an impact under coach Dennis Green.
*Indianapolis 30 Houston 14 -- The lack of cohesion on the Texans' offensive line has affected the entire unit. Houston will need to protect its quarterback and give the running backs a little daylight against a Colts defense that is much improved.
*Jacksonville 21 Baltimore 14 -- The Ravens defense doesn't intimidate opponents as in recent seasons. Plus, the running game isn't performing up to par. The Jaguars should easily defend their home turf.
New England 28 *Miami 14 -- The Patriots have been hit hard by injuries, but the return of Tedy Bruschi has inspired the much-maligned defense. The Dolphins are improving under new coach Nick Saban, but they're still not at the Patriots' level.
*NY Giants 26 Minnesota 17 -- The Vikings have lost QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, which just adds to Minnesota's on-field and off-field problems. The Giants have a very good offensive attack, led by quarterback Eli Manning.
*Chicago 20 San Francisco 13 -- The Bears defense has been outperforming the 1985 Buddy Ryan-led version. San Francisco's quarterback troubles will compound its problems on the road.
Kansas City 24 *Buffalo 21 -- The Chiefs' running game is firmly established. Add in TE Tony Gonzalez, and the Bills, coming off a bye week, will certainly have their hands at home.
Denver 24 *Oakland 23 -- The Broncos' running game is one of the league's best and should be sharp coming off a bye week. However, the Raiders have been surprisingly good on offense with LaMont Jordan and Randy Moss.
*Carolina 24 NY Jets 14 -- The Panthers are effective on offense and defense, and they should have their way against the Jets, who continue to regroup on offense. Carolina also will benefit from home-field advantage.
*Seattle 24 St. Louis 23 -- Shaun Alexander is having a terrific season; his ability to effectively run the ball has opened up the Seahawks' offense. The Rams are still in recovery mode after losing coach Mike Martz to a health issue, and could suffer from being rusty following a bye in Week 9.
Washington 21 *Tampa Bay 17 -- Washington's Mark Brunell has been one of this season's top quarterbacks, much to the surprise of many experts. The Bucs need to provide protection for QB Chris Simms, who needs all the help he can get after replacing injured Brian Griese.
*Atlanta 23 Green Bay 21 -- The struggling Packers will need to depend on QB Brett Favre, who doesn't have much to work with. Michael Vick and the Falcons will take full advantage of their home turf.
*Pittsburgh 26 Cleveland 12 -- The Steelers' ability to run the ball, along with their ability to defend well, will power Pittsburgh to a victory. Cleveland is in disarray on offense.
Week 10 - Monday, Nov. 14, 2005
*Philadelphia 24 Dallas 21 -- The Eagles will try to establish a running game after being pass-happy during the first half of the season. Doing so should power them to a narrow victory against the Cowboys, who are coming off a bye week.Comment
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Chicago Tribune/Terry Bannon NFL
Terry Bannon's NFL picks
November 10, 2005, 11:01 PM CST
Game of the week: Rams at Seahawks
Idle: Cincinnati, New Orleans, San Diego, Tennessee
Last week's record: 11-3
Season record: 81-49
49ers (2-6) at Bears (5-3)
NOON SUNDAY
TV/radio: WFLD-Ch. 32, WBBM-AM 780.
Line: Bears by 13.
Last meeting: Bears won 23-13 at Soldier Field on Oct. 31, 2004.
Key stat: It's Bears' No. 3 defense vs. 49ers' No. 32 offense.
Fantasy factor: Bears rookie Cedric Benson, coming off 79-yard effort vs. Saints, should get more work. 49ers rookie Frank Gore getting 5.3 per carry.
The buzz: In his second start, can Cody Pickett do anything against the Bears' defense? Conservative offensive will work one more time for Bears.
Bannon's pick: Bears 24, 49ers 9.
Cardinals (2-6) at Lions (3-5)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Lions by 4.
Last meeting: Lions won 26-12 at Detroit on Dec. 5, 2004.
Key stat: Lions have won both meetings in last 2 seasons, both at home.
Fantasy factor: Cards' Kurt Warner has thrown only 2 TD passes vs. 5 interceptions. Scottie Vines has emerged as key receiver for Lions (21 catches, but no TDs).
The buzz: Both teams troubled, but Cardinals are an especially bad road team—0-3 this season.
Bannon's pick: Lions 24, Cardinals 13.
Texans (1-7) at Colts (8-0)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Colts by 18.
Last meeting: Colts won 38-20 at Houston on Oct. 23, 2005.
Key stat: Colts have won all 7 meetings.
Fantasy factor: Andre Johnson is healthy again, giving Texans weapon (9 catches last week). Edgerrin James, 4.6 yards per carry and 8 TDs, could run long way against soft defense.
The buzz: Don't look for post-Patriots letdown from Colts. Certainly not at home against Texans.
Bannon's pick: Colts 34, Texans 13.
Patriots (4-4) at Dolphins (3-5)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Patriots by 3.
Last meeting: Dolphins won 29-28 at Miami on Dec. 20, 2004.
Key stat: Patriots 2-2 on road.
Fantasy factor: Ronnie Brown, averaging 4.8 per carry, could have big day against weak rushing defense. Tom Brady having another fine year, with 12 TD passes vs. 4 interceptions
The buzz: Patriots reeling but still lead AFC's weakest division. After loss to Colts, do they have energy and defense to bounce back?
Bannon's pick: Patriots 28, Dolphins 27.
Vikings (3-5) at Giants (6-2)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Giants by 9½.
Last meeting: Giants won 34-13 at Minnesota on Oct. 31, 2004.
Key stat: Giants have beaten Vikes 3 times in last 3 years by average of 13.3 points.
Fantasy factor: Brad Johnson showed some veteran spark in 1st start with 3 TD passes. Eli Manning, with 14 TD passes vs. 5 interceptions, has thrown for TD in 9 straight games.
The buzz: Giants have built big home-field advantage—4-0, winning by average of 20 points. Vikings won't be able to do much.
Bannon's pick: Giants 30, Vikings 17.
Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (3-5)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Bills by 2½.
Last meeting: Chiefs won 38-5 at Kansas City on Dec. 26, 2003.
Key stat: KC's No. 7 rushing offense faces Bills' No. 31 rushing defense.
Fantasy factor: With Priest Holmes out for season, Larry Johnson (5.2 yards per carry) gets more work for Chiefs. Bills' Kelly Holcomb has thrown 6 TD passes vs. 3 interceptions.
The buzz: Chiefs are 2-2 on road, and their powerful running game should feel right at home in the upstate New York chill.
Bannon's pick: Chiefs 28, Bills 24.
Ravens (2-6) at Jaguars (5-3)
NOON SUNDAY
Line: Jaguars by 7.
Last meeting: Ravens won 24-17 at Baltimore on Nov. 2, 2003.
Key stat: Ravens have won last 6 meetings.
Fantasy factor: Ravens may look more to tight end Todd Heap (37 catches, 2 TDs). Jaguars look to Jimmy Smith (29 catches, 4 TDs).
The buzz: Ravens quarterback Kyle Boller returns from toe injury, but how much difference can he make? Not much. Jaguars smelling playoffs.
Bannon's pick: Jaguars 27, Ravens 16.
Broncos (6-2) at Raiders (3-5)
3:05 P.M. SUNDAY
TV: WBBM-Ch. 2.
Line: Broncos by 3.
Last meeting: Raiders won 25-24 at Denver on Nov. 28, 2004.
Key stat: Broncos 1-2 on road.
Fantasy factor: Both quarterbacks, Broncos' Jake Plummer and Raiders' Kerry Collins, having good years with 12 TD passes vs. 3 interceptions.
The buzz: Both offenses are playing well, and Raiders have been more competitive than their record indicates. Old rivalry renewed.
Bannon's pick: Raiders 30, Broncos 27.
Jets (2-6) at Panthers (6-2)
3:05 P.M. SUNDAY
Line: Panthers by 9.
Last meeting: Jets won 13-12 at Carolina on Oct. 28, 2001.
Key stat: Jets are 0-4 on road, losing by 13.3 points per game.
Fantasy factor: Brooks Bollinger, who threw 2 TD passes last week, gets start for Jets again. Panthers' Steve Smith, who leads NFL with 9 TD catches, goes for 5th straight 100-yard game.
The buzz: Panthers are class of the NFC, and Jets are just trying to find enough healthy players. A mismatch.
Bannon's pick: Panthers 31, Jets 13.
Rams (4-4) at Seahawks (6-2)
3:15 P.M. SUNDAY
Line: Seahawks by 7.
Last meeting: Seahawks won 37-31 at St. Louis on Oct. 9
Key stat: Seahawks are No. 1 in offense (387.3 yards per game), Rams second (369.6).
Fantasy factor: Rams' Steven Jackson has run for 6 TDs and caught 2 TD passes. Seahawks' Shaun Alexander has 14 TDs (all rushing).
The buzz: The Rams always problem for Seahawks, and QB Marc Bulger is back from shoulder injury. Seahawks can start to pull away in NFC West.
Bannon's pick: Seahawks 38, Rams 34.
Packers (1-7) at Falcons (6-2)
3:15 P.M. SUNDAY
TV: WFLD-Ch. 32.
Line: Falcons by 9½.
Last meeting: Falcons won NFC wild-card game 27-7 at Green Bay on Jan. 4, 2003.
Key stat: Falcons have won 11 of last 13 at home.
Fantasy factor: Donald Driver leads Packers with 41 catches, 3 for TDs. Tight end Alge Crumpler leads Falcons with 33 catches, 2 for TDs.
The buzz: Michael Vick is showing signs of developing as passer, but he should play it safe in this one. Brett Favre needs help.
Bannon's pick: Falcons 27, Packers 20.
Redskins (5-3) at Bucs (5-3)
3:15 P.M. SUNDAY
Line: Redskins by 1½.
Last meeting: Redskins won 16-10 at Washington on Sept. 12, 2004.
Key stat: Redskins have lost last 3 on road.
Fantasy factor: Bucs' Chris Simms, with only 2 TD passes vs. 4 interceptions, must improve. Redskins' Santana Moss has 49 catches, 5 TDs.
The buzz: Bucs' defense due to bounce back after last week's debacle vs. Carolina.
Bannon's pick: Bucs 20, Redskins 17.
Browns (3-5) at Steelers (6-2)
7:30 P.M. SUNDAY
TV/radio: ESPN, (WSCR-AM 670, joined in progress at 9 p.m.)
Line: Steelers by 8.
Last meeting: Steelers won 24-10 at Cleveland on Nov. 14, 2004.
Key stat: Browns have held last 6 opponents under 20 points.
Fantasy factor: Browns' Reuben Droughns getting 4.5 yards per carry, but no TDs. Steelers QB Charlie Batch was shaky in win at Green Bay last week.
The buzz: Browns have been feisty in Romeo Crennel's 1st season as coach, but scoring points is problem. Not good against the Steelers.
Bannon's pick: Steelers 20, Browns 10.
Cowboys (5-3) at Eagles (4-4)
8 P.M. MONDAY
TV/radio: WLS-Ch. 7, WSCR-AM 670.
Line: Eagles by 3.
Last meeting: Cowboys won 33-10 at Dallas on Oct. 9, 2005.
Key stat: Eagles have won last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
Fantasy factor: Keyshawn Johnson leads Cowboys with 37 catches, 5 TDs. Illinois product Greg Lewis (31 catches, 1 TD) playing larger role for Eagles.
The buzz: Will Eagles be looser now that Terrell Owens is out of picture? Lewis and rookie WR Reggie Brown will be key down stretch.
Bannon's pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17.Comment
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Miami herald/Greg Cote NFL picks
PATRIOTS (4-4) AT DOLPHINS (3-5)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: Chs. 4, 12
• Line: NE by 3 • Cote: MIA 24-21
The mystique has vanished from New England, mainly because -- for all of Bill Belichick's genius at stopping the other team -- the defending champs aren't defending anybody very well. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should have dual success. And if Billy-B plots to stop them, then Gus Frerotte will have an ample shot to justify Nick Saban's generous faith in him. Miami beat the Pats here last December, and NE isn't nearly as good now, while the Dolphs are better. An upset? Yeah. But not a huge one. In a duel of coaches who go way back, on this afternoon at least, protégé beats mentor.
Game of the week
COWBOYS (5-3) AT EAGLES (4-4)
• When: 9 p.m. Monday • TV: 10, 25
• Line: PHI by 3 • Cote: PHI 27-17
Slim pickings for the Game of the Week committee this week, so we'll go with a division rivalry with the added drama of the Terrell Owens mess getting the full Monday night treatment. (A T.O. halftime interview seems as unavoidable as humidity, although we're guessing agent Drew Rosenhaus won't hit Madden with, ''Next question!'') This game measures Birds' pride, and we'll bet they still have some. 'Boys won 33-10 last month in Dallas, but Donovan McNabb and a big defensive show will be enough to make desperate Phils rise up and claim a seventh straight home victory in the series.
Upset of the week
RAMS (4-4) AT SEAHAWKS (6-2)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: SEA by 7 • Cote: STL 34-30
'AAWWK!' cries the Upset Bird. 'Although I'm a fan of the Seahaaawwwks, I'm saddling up the return of Maawwc Bulger.' Admittedly a risky pick. Seattle's home and hot. But St. Lou, off a bye, has QB Marc Bulger and top targets Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce all healthy for first time in awhile, so let's make it a pure gut-hunch on the 'dogs here. 'Hawks edged Rams 37-31 a month ago in St. Louis, but Lous have won past two meetings in Seatown. ``Seattle, a lovely place despite the gloomy weather,'' notes U-Bird, ``and a city named after an Indian chief named `Seathl.' True story. AAWWK!''
Dog of the week
TEXANS (1-7) AT COLTS (8-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: IND by 18 • Cote: IND 45-14
The Dog of the Week panel was conflicted. There are other games we'd less like to watch (to mind comes Cards-Lions), but the DOW dogma allows that we may also select the week's least-competitive game. How about a season-high 18-point line? What is this, 'Canes-Wake Forest? It seems a trap game for last-unbeaten Colts, stuck between Monday's rout of Pats and next week's semi-test at Cincy. No matter. Houston is 0-4 on the road and won't hang as close to Indy as in last month's 38-20 loss. Peyton Manning is 7-0 in series and torches Texans for a career 114.0 passer rating.
CHIEFS (5-3) AT BILLS (3-5)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: BUF by 2 ½ • Cote: KC 28-17
I'll take the better team over the venue here. Priest Holmes out for the season isn't the major blow to KC that it would have been a couple of years ago. Larry Johnson is a better runner now (if not as much a dual threat), and he should roll a big number against an extremely suspect Williams run defense.
RAVENS (2-6) AT JAGUARS (5-3)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: JAX by 7 • Cote: JAX 19-13
I'm not going to pull the trigger but you could do far worse on an outright upset shot this week than Ravens. Balts have won six straight in series and get Kyle Boller back, plus hurt Fred Taylor probably will sit. I'll take the Exotic Autos to end the series skid, but see a low final inside the Vegas number.
BRONCOS (6-2) AT RAIDERS (3-5)
• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: DEN by 3 • Cote: DEN 37-31
Jake Plummer and Kerry Collins are a combined 24-6 on TDs/picks, and an airborne shootout should ensue. Don't dismiss Oaks, who may be NFL's best losing-record team, but ride the trends instead. Denver is on a 15-5 series run, is 12-4 following byes, and brings impressive, balanced offense.
BROWNS (3-5) AT STEELERS (6-2)
• When: 8:30 p.m. Sunday • TV: ESPN
• Line: PIT by 8 • Cote: PIT 20-17
Pitters have won three straight and nine of past 10 against Earthtones. With Ben Roethlisberger still out, Steelers must deploy QB Charlie Batch again (uh oh) and try to get by on defense, especially on the run-D limiting Reuben Droughns. Hunch Clevers getting a TD-plus. Batch is that bad.
49ERS (2-6) AT BEARS (5-3)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: CHI by 13 • Cote: CHI 24-7
Niners assistant head coach Mike Singletary faces ex-team for first time. He may wish he could switch sides. Not sure Chicago, despite four straight wins, should be favored over anybody by these kind of points, but SF's defense is that bad. And Pandas' D will be rougher on Cody Pickett than any rodeo was.
CARDINALS (2-6) AT LIONS (3-5)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: DET by 4 • Cote: DET 28-17
I'd rather spend an afternoon clipping Grandma's toenails than watching this game. Arizona kicker Neil Rackers is on pace for NFL field-goals record. Hmm. Dubious. Motown's offense is nothing you'd brag about, either, but at least Lions have a decent defense. Redbirds don't, and are winless on the road.
VIKINGS (3-5) AT GIANTS (6-2)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: NYG by 9 ½ • Cote: NYG 30-20
Line may be fat, but make it a venue call all the way. Biggies are unbeaten in the Meadow, and Vikes are notoriously awful playing on the road. Minny is on a 9-32 skid away from dome, including 0-4 in '05. Only hesitation here is NYG maybe looking ahead to Eagles on deck.
REDSKINS (5-3) AT BUCCANEERS (5-3)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: 7, 29
• Line: WAS by 1 ½ • Cote: TB 19-17
This is week's only game with two winning records. How sad. See Bucs with a bounceback after embarrassing effort vs. Carolina last week. Washers are only 1-3 on the road, and Bucs have won four straight at home in series. Shaky Chris Simms might not win it, but his defense will.
PACKERS (1-7) AT FALCONS (6-2)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: ATL by 9 ½ • Cote: ATL 27-20
Brett Favre vs. Michael Vick makes it a marquee QB matchup, at least. Not sure if Atlanta is anywhere close to great. And not sure if G-Bay is quite as pitiful as its record. Outright upset would not shock, but let's meet in the middle. Homebirds take it, but Cheesers lose respectably (again).
JETS (2-6) AT PANTHERS (6-2)
• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: CAR by 9 • Cote: CAR 28-13
NYJ, going nowhere on a bullet train, is winless on the road and has Brooks Bollinger at quarterback. Carolina is on league-best five-game win streak and Jake Delhomme has 100-plus passer rating in all five. I give Jets absolutely no shot here -- unless the category is whose cheerleaders are better-behaved.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Not many breaks vs. the spread lately. Lost two games against the number by one point each, while the Bears pushed in our outright upset shot on Saints. We did call Vikes' mini-upset of Lions, but we ain't braggin'. Had some real stinker picks, like Bucs beating Carolina, and Pats on Monday night. Also misfired with Philly on our Bird call. The result? We're down to two games over .500 and looking for a tourniquet disguised as, say, a 9-5? Don't want to get greedy.
OVERALL VS. SPREAD
Last week 10-4 .714 5-8-1 .393
Season 83-47 .638 63-61-6 .508Comment
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sportingnews:
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas at Philadelphia. This is the biggest regular-season game for the Eagles since they started 0-2 in 2003. There have been more marquee matchups in their recent run of success, but I think you learn the most about a consistently good franchise in the direst of situations.
The Eagles are in the strange position of last place in the NFC East and moving forward without Terrell Owens on the field. That makes this team what it was in '03 -- reliant on sound defense and Donovan McNabb to make play after play. The bright side of last week's loss at Washington: There was an indication of both, only with McNabb just falling short in rally mode.
I think with their finger on the desperation button, they will put together their best all-around performance to beat a very tough Dallas team that thrashed them 33-10 in Week 5. They'll play better in coverage against the Cowboys' veteran receivers and execute blitzes against Drew Bledsoe, while a healthier McNabb will spread the ball around well without Owens.
The Cowboys will counter with a good running game, heavy hitting and some big plays of their own, but at home, on Monday night, if the Eagles have any hopes of saving their season, they will come up bigger. Eagles 24, Cowboys 21.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
New England at Miami. The Patriots are another team in a strange position -- they're not winning every game anymore. At 4-4, they still remain in first place in the AFC East, but they need this victory to maintain their one-game lead over the Bills and this week's opponent, the Dolphins. I'm sure the Pats also remember the unbelievable rally that allowed Miami to win this matchup last season.
The Dolphins will have success running with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but they don't have the passing game and defense to exploit the Pats' injured state. With Tom Brady vs. Gus Frerotte, the visitors will make fewer mistakes, allowing Bill Belichick to get the better of coaching protege Nick Saban. Patriots 23, Dolphins 16.
RIVALRY OF THE WEEK
Denver at Oakland. The Broncos, who went 5-0 at home in the first half of the season, start the second half with a big division road game against coach Mike Shanahan's archenemy. Despite being 3-5, the Raiders have played pretty good football -- their two close losses against the Chiefs have hurt them.
Look for the Broncos' running game to get back on a roll after a week off, which will help Jake Plummer continue to play a hot hand in the passing game. The Raiders have offensive balance with Kerry Collins and LaMont Jordan, but Denver's daunting defense will make it difficult for them to rally. Broncos 27, Raiders 20.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
St. Louis at Seattle. For the well-rested Rams, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are returning just in time for this big division game. Shaun Alexander has been unstoppable, and Matt Hasselbeck has been unflappable. These teams lit it up to the tune of a 37-31 Seattle win in Missouri in Week 5, and they'll keep up a similar pace in Washington. I just think the 'Hawks have turned the corner as a legit NFC contender, and they will all but wrap up the division title with another win here. Seahawks 38, Rams 34.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Kansas City over Buffalo. Yes, this is a minor upset, but when you consider the Bills have played their best games at home against AFC opponents and the bad news about Priest Holmes, it won't be an easy week for the Chiefs.
On the bright side, teams have roamed at will against Buffalo's run defense, and Larry Johnson has proved capable of carrying the load for KC. Kelly Holcomb, Eric Moulds and Lee Evans will make it interesting late against a bad Chiefs pass defense, but Johnson also will play the role of closer. Whether you favor team A or B, however, you can't go wrong with Arthur Bryant's or the Anchor Bar for your game-watching meal of choice. Chiefs 28, Bills 24.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Carolina over New York Jets. Look how far my preseason Super Bowl prediction has fallen. While the Jets have tanked with injuries playing a major part, at least the Panthers are making good on my promise, making this at least a "half" Super Bowl preview. I like the fact the Jets aren't giving up, but there's no way John Fox's team gives in to them this week.
Carolina's front seven will have a dominant field day against Brooks Bollinger and Curtis Martin, and I have a strange hunch that guys named Steve and Stephen will do some scoring for the home team. Panthers 31, Jets 14.
REST OF THE WEEK
Arizona at Detroit. Inexplicably, many had both teams pegged as NFC division title contenders in the preseason, and predictably, they've both disappointed. The Cardinals can't run or stop the run, and the Lions can't seem to forge an identity. Injuries and ineffective personnel are responsible for the team's respective problems, so that will help one of them find temporary solutions this week. Just two little words -- "at Detroit" -- tell me to pick the Leos. Lions 20, Cardinals 13.
Houston at Indianapolis. The Colts' attitude and focus has never been sharper after finally winning at New England, and that, plus the fact the Texans made a game of it in Week 7, will keep Indy from letting up and letting down. On Edgerrin, on Peyton, on Marvin, on Dwight, your team has never looked so bright. Running, passing, pass rush -- the Colts have too many ways to beat teams, and the Texans, with shaky fronts on both sides of the ball, just have too few. Colts 45, Texans 17.
San Francisco at Chicago. There's a summer wind blowing through Soldier Field with Lovie Smith continuing to build his coach of the year campaign. Great defense and a great running game usually lead to great things, and that's my kind of team, Chicago is. As for the Niners, they looked awful in this exact matchup last season, and they're even worse off this time around. Bears 24, 49ers 10.
Minnesota at New York Giants. The Vikings can't stop explosive, versatile running backs, athletic tight ends or big-play go-to receivers, and the G-Men have one each of those. Brad Johnson will give Minny a chance against New York's secondary woes, but what he does won't be enough to compensate for what Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress will do. Giants 34, Vikings 20.
Baltimore at Jacksonville. This game should feature more onomatopoeia than either John Madden's analysis or those Car-X commercials. Pound for pound, the team that has more heavyweights will be the winner, and with Ray Lewis out of the lineup and Jamal Lewis out of top shape, I'm in the corner of gritty Byron Leftwich and grittier coach Jack Del Rio. Jaguars 20, Ravens 17.
Green Bay at Atlanta. Hot new NFL name Samkon Gado gives the Pack someone to run with against the Falcons, but their comeback attempt will be grounded at the Georgia Dome. The combination of Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and Alge Crumpler will work over Green Bay's front seven, while Falcons defensive coordinator Ed Donatell will scheme his fast and furious unit to hold back his former team's offense late. Falcons 27, Packers 20.
Washington at Tampa Bay. The Bucs are heading toward fading from the NFC playoff picture, and the Redskins aren't too far behind. Both will bring solid defensive efforts into this matchup against the others' limited offenses, but the difference will be turnovers. While the Redskins have forced only six takeaways, the Bucs, with playmakers such as Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber, have 15, and they will benefit from the energy of playing at home to force some more this week. Buccaneers 17, Redskins 13.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Without Ben Roethlisberger for the third time this season, the Steelers will keep things as simple as possible with their running game, regardless of whether it's Duce Staley, Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis, Verron Haynes, you or your accountant pounding it between the tackles behind their stout offensive line. Once they have no problems wearing down the Browns, even Charlie Batch can't botch that. Steelers 23, Browns 13.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 9 straight up: 11-3
Week 9 record vs. the spread: 8-6
Season record straight up: 84-46
Season record vs. the spread: 63-67Comment
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SI.com:ncaa
Week 10
3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) No. 5 LSU (7-1) at No. 4 Alabama (9-0)
If you think Alabama is worthy of the Rose Bowl, you must be in dreamland -- and I don't mean the BBQ joint. The Tide have scored just one offensive TD in their past three SEC games. But wait! Mike Shula's gang has not allowed a touchdown of any sort in 15 quarters and only one TD in the past five games. Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (8.2 points per game)! Expect the Dangerfield Factor ("We don't get no respect!") to kick in and the Tide to keep the "BCS-needs-fixin'" argument alive at least one more week.
Alabama 18, LSU 17
7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) No. 15 Auburn (7-2) at No. 9 Georgia (7-1)
In this photo, Bulldogs quarterback D.J. Shockley sings along to Young Jeezy's Soul Survivor while backup Joe Tereshinski III provides the beat. "'Cuz er'body know the game don't stop/Tryin' to make it to the top for your ass get popped." Three weeks ago against Arkansas, Shockley's knee got popped, and the game stopped for him. D.J.'s back now, and the Dawgs are eager to climb back up the charts.
Georgia 27, Auburn 19
Noon ET (ABC) No. 25 Northwestern (6-3) at No. 7-2 Ohio St. (10)
Just finished reading the 637-page interview with Bono in the November 3 issue of Rolling Stone. The U2 frontman reveals that if he hadn't found salvation in a band, he "would've been a journalist." I can see it now: "Paul Hewson's Hurling Power Rankings." And if 2004 Mr. Ohio football Tyrell Sutton had remained in-state the Wildcats would not have a prayer at the Horseshoe. But Sutton chose Northwestern, which makes this game interesting.
Ohio State 42, Northwestern 27
3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) No. 1 USC (9-0) at California (6-3)
My favorite sub-plot of the Terrell Owens-saga is that former Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Hugh Douglas is the franchise's official "ambassador." Sweet gig! The Golden Bears and Trojans have unofficial ambassadors in musicians Adam Duritz (Counting Crows) and Snoop Dogg. USC returns to Memorial Stadium, the site of its most recent defeat some 747 days ago. Will the Trojans, who succumbed in overtime that day, avenge their lone loss of the past 2 1/2 seasons? Fashizzle
USC 44, Cal 21
3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) Kansas (5-4) at No. 2 Texas (9-0)
The Jayhawks (the only BCS school named for an alt-country rock band) will be covering a tune from Mike and the Mechanics in Austin: All I Need is a Miracle. Kansas snapped Nebraska's 36-game stranglehold on their program a week ago in Lawrence, but guess what, Coach Mangino? "You're ___ __ ______ ___ ____." (a line so obvious I was ashamed to print it out. The Vince Young Heisman campaign rolls on.
Texas 49, Kansas 17
1 p.m. ET (NBC) Navy (5-3) at No. 7 Notre Dame (6-2)
From the official Notre Dame athletic site, concerning safety Tom Zbikowski's prep track career: holds 11 school records in track and field, including the 100 meters at 10.4. From the official USC athletic site, concerning tailback Reggie Bush's prep track career: placed third in the 2002 California state 100 meters final and posted bests of 10.42 in the 100. Worth noting in case the "not particularly fast" Z scores his fifth touchdown of the season versus the Midshipmen. Don't mean to harp, Mr. Haden.
Notre Dame 45, Navy 17
12:30 p.m ET (Jefferson Pilot) No. 12 Florida (7-2) at South Carolina (6-3)
Okay, it's the wrong Carolina, and it's the wrong level of football, but this is as close as I'll come to being able to opine on the Carolina Panthers cheerleader fiasco, so here goes. Angela, Renee, listen up: Next time you go Taradise in a public restroom, do it in the Men's room. Trust me, no one will hurry you. No one will mind.
South Carolina 17, Florida 16
7 p.m. ET (ABC) Arizona St. (5-4) at No. 14 UCLA (8-1)
The Bruins face their second freshman quarterback from an Arizona school in as many Saturdays, and the results may be just as gruesome. Sun Devil redshirt freshman QB Rudy Carpenter (whose dad is in construction!) has taken over for injured incumbent Sam Keller and in 2 1/2 games is 74-of-102 (73 percent) with eight TDs and two INT. Carpenter will ****** the Bruins' secondary with passes to senior wideout Derek Hagan, who needs just seven receptions to become the Pac-10 career leader.
ASU 41, UCLA 38
Noon ET (ESPN) No. 17 Florida St. (7-2) at Clemson (5-4)
Hey, remember Chris Rix? The former four-year starter at quarterback for the Seminoles is not on any NFL roster. His former coach, Bobby Bowden, recently said of Rix, "We had a guy who maybe played more snaps than anybody and just didn't get better." Ooh, snap. Rix's replacement, Drew Weatherford, is the top-rated freshman passer in the nation. Can he outduel the Tigers' own four-year starter, Charlie Whitehurst?
Florida State 20, Clemson 16
7 p.m. ET (Fox Sports Net) No. 22 Colorado (7-2) at Iowa St. (6-3)
Okay, I'm not making this up. The Cyclones' leading scorer is junior fullback Ryan Kock, whose last name, as Iowa State officials take pains to inform the media, is pronounced COOK. Kock has scored 12 touchdowns this season, which led one fervent female student in Ames to don an "I LOVE KOCK" T-shirt at a recent home game. I only report the news. The Buffs only losses this season (blowouts, though) were to Top-five teams Miami and Texas.
Colorado 20, Iowa State 17Comment
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SI.com:NFL
Week 10 Matchups
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Houston (1-7) at Indianapolis (8-0)
If you expect the Colts to have mercy on the Texans, you will be disappointed. This is an Edgerrin James get-the-stats-so-I-can-force-the-Colts-to-pay-me game. And there are plenty of stats to be had.
Indianapolis 38, Houston 10
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Minnesota (3-5) at New York (6-2)
The Giants are getting scant credit for this, but it's the reason why they're 6-2 and in first place in the NFC East at the midpoint: They can play defense. It's been 148 Minutes -- nine quarters and 13 minutes -- since the G-men have allowed a touchdown.
New York Giants 23, Minnesota 9
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Baltimore (2-6) at Jacksonville (5-3)
Is it just me, or is anyone else stunned at how the return of Kyle Boller is being viewed as the return of a gimpy Willis Reed to the 1970 Knicks? Sheesh.
Jacksonville 19, Baltimore 10
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup San Francisco (2-6) at Chicago (5-3)
Just wondering: Do the Bears have any NFL teams on their schedule this year?
Chicago 20, San Francisco 3
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Arizona (2-6) at Detroit (3-5)
Six percent of the country will be treated to (or tormented by) this game on TV. The only redeeming value of this one is watching to see how many field goals Neil Rackers kicks. He's having the best season a kicker has ever had and no one is noticing.
Detroit 17, Arizona 12
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Kansas City (5-3) at Buffalo (3-5)
Now I don't think Buffalo's better, but I think several elements combine to make this happen. One, Priest Holmes is out for the year. Two, Patrick Surtain's not healthy and the secondary is shreddable without him. And three, The weather adventures of Buffalo in mid-November.
Buffalo 21, Kansas City 20
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New England (4-4) at Miami (3-5)
I can't see how the Patriots stop the Miami running game. And by the way, where in the world is Richard Seymour?
Miami 16, New England 14
4:05 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Denver (6-2) at Oakland (3-5)
You would be shocked to know -- shocked, just shocked! -- that the fans at the Coliseum have pelted Mike Shanahan with batteries several times since he left the Raiders. Gee, I thought they just did that to the home-team coach, you know, as a sign of affection.
Denver 30, Oakland 28
4:05 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New York (2-6) at Carolina (6-2)
Maybe the most stunning stat in all of football is that the Carolina Panthers are fourth in the league in scoring. And I don't mean the cheerleaders either.
Carolina 27, New York Jets 10
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Green Bay (1-7) at Atlanta (6-2)
After the game, Mike Vick says, "And this week, I don't want any criticism of my hairstyle, either."
Atlanta 19, Green Bay 17
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Washington (5-3) at Tampa Bay (5-3)
Memo to Chris Simms: If you want to have a career as an NFL starting QB, and you want it to be for the team with the pewter pants and the crazy coach, this would be the game you'd want to emulate your Dad's performance in Super Bowl XXI. You know, the 22-for-25 game.
Tampa Bay 16, Washington 13
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup St. Louis (4-4) at Seattle (6-2)
Ray Rhodes, for the sake of yourself, your family and your life, I would recommend you watch the games on TV for a while.
Seattle 24, St. Louis 17
8:30 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Cleveland (3-5) at Pittsburgh (6-2)
How insane is it that Charlie Batch is going to be 2-0 as a starter in 2005 by midnight on Sunday? Just goes to show you that maybe, just maybe, that's not the stat it's cracked up to be.
Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 7
9 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Dallas (5-3) at Philadelphia (4-4)
I love this game. Just love it. And just watch, Reggie Brown: two TDs, 117 yards receiving.
Philadelphia 17, Dallas 16Comment
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Swami Picks
Chris Berman
Last week 0-6-1
Season 27-25
Bills 24~KC 23
TB 17~Wash 15
Jax 19~Balt 16
NE 24~Mia 17
Phily 26~Dall 19Comment
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espn bill simmons:
Redskins (-1) over BUCS
Isn't Chris Simms turning into the poor man's Scott Mitchell? And did you even think that was possible?
DOLPHINS (+3) over Patriots
My vote for "worst trend of 2005": Coaches splitting carries between quality running backs and diluting their fantasy value. First, it's not fair to the millions of losers who live and die with their fantasy teams every week (like me, for example). Second, you're putting some fans in the awkward position of watching someone like Holmes get knocked semiconscious, then immediately getting excited because they have Larry Johnson on their team (which just makes everyone feel crummy). And third, there aren't nearly enough good running backs, anyway -- why hoard them? I just think it's selfish. Some poor fantasy fool has to start Sam Gado this week; meanwhile, Nick Saban is juggling Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams like he's toggling between two channels on a TV screen. You can go to hell, Nick Saban.
(And yes, I have Ricky and Ronnie on my East Coast fantasy team. I will now snort a spoonful of healing cayenne pepper.)
Rams (+6.5) over SEAHAWKS
Aren't we due for one of those catastrophic Seahawks collapses soon? It's almost like when you know it's time to get another haircut. If only this game were on CBS, they could have keep cutting to commercials for that "Category 7: The End of the World" disaster movie as the Hawks were self-destructing. Randy Quaid, Shannen Doherty, Tom Skerritt, Gina Gershon … and Matt Hasselbeck as Matt!
BEARS (-13) over Niners
Have a couple of thoughts on this one…
1. You don't have to thank me for the Bears' bandwagon. Seriously, I'm happy to help, it's my job. No, come on, you don't have to. Please, sit down. You're welcome, you're welcome. Come on, this is awkward. Just stop. Fine, we can hug. OK, that's enough.
2. Kyle Orton has officially reached Trent Dilfer Memorial "I'm not gonna kill you, and I can even make a few throws when it matters to help you win a close game against a crappy team" status. You can win 10 games with a guy like that.
3. During the Giants-Niners game two weeks ago, they showed a No. 10 on the Niners flying around special teams trying to make a play, and it seemed like a QB, and then the announcers pointed out that it was Cody Pickett, and I remember making the obligatory, "Wow, he's the 21st-century Jim Jensen!" comment to myself before flicking channels. A few minutes later, I came back … and Pickett was taking snaps in the actual game. Ladies and gentleman, your 2005 San Francisco 49ers!
4. Two days after that game, they named Pickett the starter and signed Jesse Palmer as his new backup, which happened so abruptly that Jesse had to cancel his scheduled appearance as the emcee of FHM's Top 100 Hottest Foreign Brunettes party. Once again, ladies and gentleman, your 2005 San Francisco 49ers!
Cards (+3.5) over LIONS
Forget the game -- I'm more excited for the postgame handshake between Kurt Warner and Joey Harrington.
Hang in there.
No, you hang in there.
No, you hang in there.
No, seriously, you hang in there.
GIANTS (-9.5) over Vikings
Interesting point from L.A. reader Mike Landers after my Manning-Manning column two weeks ago: "Fine, Eli Manning is a good QB, and he will continue to get better. But, for the sake of the NFL and football fans around the world, it is your duty and every other sportswriter's duty to comment about Eli's draft fiasco after every compliment you throw his way. What he did was worse for the NFL than anything the Vikings, T.O. or any Raiders fan has done in the last five years. Why bother having a draft if players can decide that they won't play for what they view as a subpar team? Maybe I'm being a broken record but I cannot and will not ever cheer for Eli Manning regardless of what team he ever ends up on."
Point taken. And while we're on the subject, if Manning knew then what he knows now, would he really have passed up the chance to play with LDT and Antonio Gates in 80-degree weather for the next 10 years? Can somebody ask him this after spiking his mixed drink at a Manhattan nightclub with four cc's of truth serum?
(Speaking of the Giants, as my friend Shek astutely pointed out when we were watching football last weekend, couldn't they have found a better picture of Wellington Mara to circulate for the TV stations after he passed away? Why do they always show the latest and most unflattering picture possible of a late celebrity, with one exception: Elvis? Why did Elvis get a free ride?)
Texans (+17.5) over COLTS
The ol' Letdown Game! One of my favorites. By the way, I forgot to mention in the Vikings paragraph that the Daunte Culpepper Fantasy Support Group would like to thank everyone for their time, patience and understanding over these past few weeks. Please refrain from mailing your own feces to Daunte in the hospital -- they have security dogs sniffing every package that comes in. It's over. Let it go. Thanks again.
JAGS (-6.5) over Ravens
Newspaper blurb of the week, courtesy of Sports Weekly: "With [Jamal] Lewis stuck in his season-long rut, the Ravens had to turn frequently to quarterback Anthony Wright. He completed 61 percent of his passes, throwing six TDs and nine interceptions. In his last two games, Wright was 3-for-16 for 30 yards in the red zone. But Kyle Boller should be back to try to revive the offense after missing seven games with a toe injury."
(Lemme tell you something … any time the words "Kyle Boller" and "try to revive the offense" are in the same sentence, you know your season's over.)
FALCONS (-9.5) over Packers
Poor Brett Favre. Wow. Holy schmoly. This is like seeing Noah Wyle finishing out his contract on "E.R." last season, when he was moping through the hospital scenes and you're thinking, "Just kill him already, run him over with an ambulance or something!" -- only you know he still has, like, seven episodes to go.
Jets (+9.5) over PANTHERS
You know the NFL quarterbacking situation is in tough shape when I'm watching the Jets-Chargers game with a bunch of friends on Sunday, and we have the obligatory, "You know, Brooks Bollinger isn't terrible" conversation … and none of us are kidding.
(Random question: Why does Steve Smith have huge games only when someone trash-talks him? Does this transfer to other activities? If I were playing pool against him in a bar, and I talked some smack, would he immediately run the table on me? What if he entered the Hot Dog Contest in Coney Island and Kobayashi started talking smack to him? Would he throw down 150 dogs? Is it just a good idea to never talk trash with Steve Smith about anything? Can somebody find out? And speaking of inexplicable story lines about the Panthers … )
Renee (-9) over Angela
One of the greatest high-lows in the history of the Internet: Finding out that two NFL cheerleaders were going at it in a bathroom stall and eventually arrested … and then seeing the pictures of the two cheerleaders. I mean, I haven't felt that letdown since Teri Hatcher's topless scene in "Heaven's Prisoners." Is there a way for everyone to chip in to convince Angela not to pose naked for Penthouse? I'm in for $20.
(Speaking of the cheerleaders, I agreed with this e-mail from Chicago reader Adam B.: "Hope you caught 'Inside the NFL' this week, when Cris Carter had this gem to say about the Carolina Panthers cheerleading situation: 'If they let the cheerleaders date the players, then they wouldn't have to go make out with each other.' This caused Cris Collinsworth to show the 'Is that Janet Jackson's nipple?' face. I think this should be nominated for the Faces Hall of Fame.")
Browns (+8) over STEELERS
Let's just say that Chaz Batch looked a little rusty last week. Literally. He looked like Rusty Hilger.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Burning questions: If the Eagles can't run the ball with Brian Westbrook, why would it be a good idea to give him $25 million over five years when it seems like he's a third-down back? What's the difference between a hernia and a sports hernia? How many people were injured in the Reggie Brown Fantasy Stampede this week? How many Marion Barbers are we up to at this point? What would happen if T.O. bought a ticket and just sat in the stands with a big smile on his face? And why do I feel like the Eagles have Ewing Theory written all over them?
Broncos (-3) over RAIDERS
After the Colts-Pats shellacking, I thought about flying my buddy Gus (a diehard Broncos fan) to a log cabin in the mountains of Russia, just so I could give this speech to him in person, but I settled for doing it over the phone because it was considerably cheaper. Anyway, here's what I told him:
"Bill Belichick was like my son. I raised him. And when the Patriots' defense died on Monday night, a part of me died, too. But now you're the one. You're the one that's gonna keep Bill Belichick's spirit alive. You're the one who's gonna make sure that his defense didn't die for nothing. Now you're gonna have to go through hell. Worse than any nightmare you ever dreamed. But in the end, I know the Broncos will be the one standing in the AFC. You know what you have to do. Do it. DO IT."
Last week: 6-7-1 Season: 67-60-2Comment
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