Great situation for a Baltimore upset. The Ravens played with a ton of heart of Monday night in a tight loss to the Steelers. Based on their performance and the comments following the game I think we'll see them gain alot confidence headed into their matchup vs the Bengals. This game is a total role reversal with the Bengals coming in as road favorites and the Ravens have always been tough in the underdog role. The Raven's performance on Monday night was especially impressive because it was on the road vs a very tough opponent and the matchups were poor for them. Now we see them at home as underdogs with very favorable matchups. The Bengals run defense is among the worst in the league (allowing a whopping 4.7 yards/rush) and that's something the Ravens can ****** away at. QB Anthony made big strides on Monday and all they need is the threat of the pass to take the heat off the running game. For the Bengals offense, their worst matchup is vs a team that can defend the pass. The Ravens are #1 and that completes an ideal underdog matchup on both sides of the ball. I also expect Baltimore's edge in toughness to play a significant role. Finally, a couple systems come into play. First, teams off close Monday night losses have covered +70% of the time the following game and it's even stronger at home. So don't buy into the "they'll be deflated" thing. Remember, this was a struggling team that put together a solid effort in a very difficult situation. This is the type of team that wants to get back on the field, especially at home. Next, this one qualifies as a play under my favorite situation which is betting on live home dogs vs an opponent off a S/U win where they performed below expectations. A bad sign as they hit the road and these away favorites cover less than 35% of the time the following game. The situation, matchups, line, and motivational edge all line up in our favor here
i have very dependable info on this and if it goes the ravens way, we should see a turnover party in baltimore---I personally do not see it happening unless the bengals take a dive---theyre better on offense, and right now defense. aLSO BALTIMORE played a physical monday night game....everything favors the bengals - except the line, it should at least be -6 ..
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