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LOCK AND LOAD THE BIG PLAYS ARE FINALLY COMMING. I HAVE WAITED ALL SEASON FOR THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS THERE WILL BE FEWER MEANINGLESS SPOTS AND INCREASED LINE VALUE AS THE PERCEPTION VS REALITY SITUATIONS BEGIN TO UNFOLD. WELL CAN'T SAY IT WAS A GREAT WEEK BUT IT WAS PROFITABLE PICKING UP A MEAGER TWO TENTHS (+.2) OF A UNIT, BUT I WAS STILL EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED IN MY NFL DAY. NO MATTER HOW MUCH TIME YOU SPEND CAPPING A GAME, NOBODY CAN PREDICT WHEN A SERIOUS INJURY (IE. CULPEPPER GOING OUT IN THE 1ST QUARTER) WILL OCCUR TO KILL YOUR CHANCES OF A SPREAD COVER. NEVERTHELSS, THE TOP PLAY STILL CASHED WITH AN OUTRIGHT WIN BY SAN FRANSICO AND 2 OUT OF THE TOP 3 PLAYS CASHED IN THE NCAA. I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 19 OUT OF THE LAST 22 WEEKS (86.4%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON IN NCAA AND NFL FOOTBALL. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
5*
4*
3*
3* COMMING SOON
2* NEVADA -4.5
1* TENNESSEE +8
1* SMU -7 (-120)
1* ARMY +11 [color:green]UPGRADED[/color]
Opinions: SOUTH FLORIDA +3 DOWNGRADED
--------------------------------------------------
HAWAII (3 - 5) at NEVADA (4 - 3)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 4:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Hawaii (3-5, 3-3 WAC) suffered a crucial home loss last week to then No. 22 Fresno State (27-13). Sophomore quarterback Colt Brennan and the Warrior offense were able to out-gain Fresno State 456 to 445 in total yards and penetrated the red zone eight times, but came away with just 13 points. Brennan finished the game 35-of-54 passing for 327 yards, two interceptions and one touchdown. On the season, Brennan has completed 239-of-346 attempts for 2,777 yards, nine interceptions, and 22 touchdowns. The Irvine, Calif., native has placed himself among the nations best in total offense (362.0), first in the WAC, second nationally, and passing (347.1), first in the WAC. Freshmen receiver Davone Bess continues to put up record-breaking numbers this season. For the third consecutive game, Bess has reached the century mark. Against Fresno State, the rookie tied the school record with 14 grabs for a career high 158 yards. Senior running back Nate Ilaoa also has a career night against the Bulldogs. Ilaoa gained a career high 95 yards on 10 carries and added three receptions for 18 yards. It was the highest rushing output by any UH player this season. Meanwhile, Nevada (4-3 SU/ATS, 3-1 WAC ) is currently tied for second with Louisiana Tech and two wins ahead of the Warriors in WAC standings. Opening the season alternating wins and losses, the Wolf Pack finally hit stride with three consecutive wins against WAC foes San Jose, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech. However, head coach Chris Ault and his team suffered a lopsided 49-14 loss last week to conference leader Boise State. After meanger offensive output in the beginning of the season, Nevada is now clicking offensively under HC Chris Ault, averaging 29 points, 153 yards rushing and 276 passing per contest. Nevada's offense is led by junior quarterback Jeff Rowe. Against Boise State, Rowe was 21-of-38 for 307 yards with one touchdown and is second in the WAC in passing average (265.9) and total offense (287.7). Rowe will look to hand the ball off to running back B.J. Mitchell. The senior is second in the WAC in rushing with 134 carries for 668 yards. Mitchell was named the WAC offensive Player of the Week on Oct. 24 for his performance against Idaho. Senior Nichiren Flowers and junior Caleb Spencer are Nevada's top receivers. Both are among the WAC leaders in receptions per game. Flowers has 39 catches for 514 yards and one touchdown while Spencer has 41 grabs for 551 yards and four touchdowns. Against Boise State, Flowers had a team best nine grabs for 136 yards. The Nevada defense is ranked third in the WAC, allowing 379.4 yards per game.
It would make all of the logical sense in the world that the Rainbow Warriors would struggle when having to play in cold and windy Reno in November, and for the second time in three years they are stuck with this trip. Ever what is like to be a player on Hawaii having to travel on the road. Well I have and here is there travel itinerary for this week trip to Nevada. The Warriors will meet for team breakfast a 9:30 a.m. and get on a bus to the airport by 10:15. They then will board a plane which is scheduled to depart Honolulu at 1 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 3 (Aloha Airlines Charter Flight). They will arrive in Reno, Nev. at 8:21 p.m. They then have to board a bus, travel to their Hotel (John Ascuaga's Nugget) and hopefully should be in bed by 11 p.m. They then have a practice, press conference ad sleep again. The team will depart immediately after the game aboard another Aloha Airline Charter Flight scheduled to arrive in Honolulu at approximately 11:19 p.m on Sunday. I’m sure the Hawaii players are happy that this is their final road game of the year.
The home team has dominated the series. The host is 5-0 ATS in this series, with the home team on an 18-3 spread run in Reno games, as well as a 14-6 spread run in Rainbow tilts. Nevada is 7-0 ATS at home before BB road games and has covered five in a row as home chalk. The last time Hawaii made this trip they generated only 14 points in a 10-point loss. That is part of an 0-4 ATS tally in November road games the past four seasons, games that they lost to the spread by a combined 60 points. Now they have to not only deal with the elements and a Wolfpack secondary that can match up to their tactics (allowing just 46.5% completions this season, with two interception returns for TD’s), but also do it the week after their intense effort to try to upset Fresno State. Nevada is already 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season in Chris Ault’s return, creating the aura of “just like old times” around the region, impressively beating the spread by 55 points in the process. And don't look now, but the Wolfpack of Nevada is only 2 wins from bowl eligibility. Oh and it that’s not enough, Nevada is also play with revenge and surely want to erase the memory of the 48-26 pounding they took on the Island last year. Lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: Nevada Reno 37, Hawaii 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEVADA -4.5
TENNESSEE (3 - 4) at NOTRE DAME (5 - 2)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 2:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
Tennessee breaks from Southeastern Conference play and travels north to South Bend, Ind., where it looks to get back on the winning track against Notre Dame. Tennessee (3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is the most disappointing team in the country, expected to be a Top 10 team this season they have lost 3 in a row. Many argue that Tennessee is second in the nation in NFL-level talent, behind only USC in terms of the number and quality of players on the roster that will be playing on Sundays in seasons to come. But all of that talent has done little for the Volunteers this year because the team has little chemistry and ongoing quarterback problems. Their offense has been unable to run the ball (3.3 yards per carry, 110 yds rushing pg) and averaging a meager 16 points per contest. Sophomore QB Erick Ainge and senior Rick Clausen have been erratic. Phil Fulmer used both QBs in last week’s 16-15 loss at home to South Carolina, the first time the Gamecocks ever won there. Ainge was 9-of-21 for 65 yards, Claussen was 5-of-11 for 34 yards, one pick. Both QBs have lost confidence. Also, Randy Sanders resigned as Tennessee's offensive coordinator Monday, two days after the Volunteers lost their third straight game with another punchless performance. Tennessee's offense averages 16 points a game, and they are 99th in total offense, 98th in rushing offense, and 101st in passing efficiency. The defense is good, but they take on an explosive Notre Dame offense. Notre Dame (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) has had an extra week to prepare and Charlie Weis's offense is averaging 37.8 points, 152 yards rushing, 340 passing per game. Junior QB Brady Quinn has transformed himself into one of the elite quarterbacks in the nation with 65.8% completion, 2,352 yards, 20 TDs, 4 INTs. All in all there is really no dispute that Notre Dame has the superior offense between the two clubs, but their losses to both Michigan State and USC were shootouts against teams with vulnerable defenses. One year ago, Notre Dame pulled a 17-13 upset win at No. 11 Tennessee. The Vols also lead the all-time series with Notre Dame 4-3, dating to 1978. Tennessee is 2-1 all-time in South Bend.
This line opened at Notre Dame -8 and has surprisingly bet up to -9.5. Also early betting numbers show that for every one bet on Tennessee three bets are being placed on the Irish. Hmmmm? Certainly very interesting but not surprising as Notre Dame is traditionally a public favorite. Of course though for me I will be backing Tennessee with A LOT of confidence. I mean come on...9.5 points sure is a lot of points to lay to a team some preseason experts thought would win the national championship, and its actually a lot of points to lay to any Tennessee team. All the trends I have discovered back the Vols. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last ten as road dogs while the Irish chime in with a pitiful 2-11-1 ATS mark as home favorites off a SU ATS win. In addition, the Irish are a poor 10-26 at home against avenging teams. Aside from the trends lets take a look at the match-ups. As stated above, everybody knows of Tennessee’s struggles offensively, but many of their opponents (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) fielded defenses that were far superior to the Notre Dame defense they will see this weekend. Like the rest of the good teams in the SEC, Tennessee has a superior defense that is by far the best defense that Notre Dame has faced by a considerable margin (132 yards superior to the Irish D), so I expect the Vols to give Brady Quinn a hard time this weekend. Also keeping in mind that the only team with a winning record that Notre Dame has beaten is Michigan and I have no other choice but to the considerable points with this live dog.
Forecast: Notre Dame 21, Tennessee 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON TENNESSEE +9.5
RICE (0 - 7) at SMU (2 - 6)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 3:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Owls of Rice (0-7 SU/1-6 ATS) have been an embarrassment with their 13-game losing streak, along with a defense which has allowed 44 ppg in their last 11 outings. Indeed, Rice just completed a three-game home stand...and amazing lost all three. That's significant because Rice hasn't won a game. The Owls have had a brutal schedule, with big losses at Texas and UCLA playing mostly road games. They've had manageable games against UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa and Navy, but lost them all, giving up 45, 41, 41 and 41 points. The defense has been the weak spot allowing 211 rushing yards per contest. They did play with some spunk Saturday, losing 38-31 to mighty UTEP as a +19 home dog but even this is a bit misleading as that ATS win was in large park thanks to a 21-pt 2nd half, with all 3 TDs coming off UTEP turnovers. This week's game and the following week at home against a beatable Tulane would be its best shots to avoid a winless season. Enter the SMU Mustangs (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS), who've certainly turned more than few heads this season, which began with their upset of TCU in game #2, & resumed in game #4, after a pair of bombs vs Texas A&M & Tulane. ****** of 8½, 21, & 7 pts in 3 of their last 4 games. SMU is playing better behind quarterback Jerad Romo (5 TDs, 6 INTs). They are kind of a fluke team, with stunning wins over TCU and UAB, yet losses to Marshall, East Carolina and Tulsa. In fact, they were a favorite once this season, against East Carolina, and Romo had his worst game of the season in a 24-17 loss to East Carolina with no TDs and 4 picks. Before that, SMU had a stunning 28-27 upset of UAB as a 20-point underdog on a 31-yard touchdown catch by Bobby Chase as time expired. Romo completed 30 of 43 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns in that one, so you never know which QB (or team) is going to show up. They've had two weeks to prepare after Tulsa defeated Southern Methodist 20-13. The SMU defense is allowing 27.8 points, 148 yards rushing and 256 passing each contest.
SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this avenging homecoming game which is one of the major factors as to why I’m all over this selection. The term “revenge” is often thrown around a little too lightly in the handicapping world, but when you embarrassed and humiliated like SMU was last season then it hold a little more water like in this case. As mentioned above Rice is on a 13 game loosing streak. Anybody know who their last win Was against? SMU! Indeed the Owls clobbered them 44-10 last year and continued to run up the score eve when the game was securely in the books. SMU has already reversed a 44-0 margin against them vs. TCU this season (by 55 points, into 21-10 for), and this is their first revenge game since. Last season’s result against was 44-10, with Rice’s second, third, fourth, fifth and six scores made on drives of 24, 28, 21, 0 and 28 yards. SMU defense has since been vastly improved and arguably one of the more underrated squads in the country. I’m not sure I can sum up this game any better then an article I read on it so I will quote it for your benefit. “Unlike Rice’s first point-spread cover of the season last week, which occurred home with the benefit of a three-score, pre-game cushion vs. disinterested favorite UTEP, this opponent sees fire in its eyes when the winless Owls’ logo shows up. “These guys stink, yet they beat us in their place last season when we were 1-5 and had nothing to look forward to? Now we’re 3-5 and still with a chance to be 6-5?” Kill!
Forecast: SMU 34, Rice 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SMU -7 (-120 BUY ½ POINT)
ARMY (1 - 6) at AIR FORCE (3 - 6)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 3:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
The battle for the Commander in Chief's Trophy between two teams limping through poor seasons. Army (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) actually comes in on the winning streak, with a 20-0 victory over a bad Akron defense. QB Zac Dahman and RB Carlton Jones lead a young ground-oriented attack that is averaging just 14 points and 2.8 yards per rush. Army is 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS on the road where the Cadets are getting beat by a 27-14 average, though the last game was at Akron. Meanwhile, Air Force (3-6) has lost 6 of 7 games and the defense has been positively brutal, allowing 48 and 62 the last two games and the back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in the Fisher DeBerry era (1984-present)! Air Force also has problems behind center as do-it-all quarterback Shaun Carney left the BYU game with a hand injury and is not expected to start this week. Air Force has the top-rated rushing offense in the MWC and is ranked eighth in the country, averaging 244.9 yards per game but their major downfall this season has been their defense which currently ranks dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Indeed, their defense has been destroyed to the tune of 110 points and 1,209 yards the past two weeks, including allowing B.Y.U. (last week) to reach 300 both running and passing yards. Not only have the losses been taking their toll, but this is also the 10th straight game without a bye week, which takes an additional measure away from a squad that is short on depth.
The SU trends certainly do not lie as Air Force has won 13 straight at home vs. Army, dating back to 1977 when the Black Knights won 31-6 in Falcon Stadium and leads the series 26-12-1. Air Force has won eight straight against Army and 15 of the last 16. But this Air Force program is in absolute turmoil after legendary coach Fisher DeBerry made his second insensitive racial remark about black athletes (and their ability to run the ball better then white athletes…like we didn’t know that already…but still should not be said publically) in less than a year. Unfortunately, this distraction has hurt the players on their field, as their campus has been a media circus. Defensively, Air force ranks 106th in the NCAA defensively and that’s a full 115 yards worse than Army's. To complicate matters, the Cadets have an extra week to prepare for their tricky option attack, which can give non-defensive minded clubs fits. Army has had two weeks to prepare for this contest fresh off of their first win of the season, and the one-two rushing tandem of Carlton Jones (219 yards vs. the Falcons last year) and Scott Wesley can control the ball for long stretches in this one, while also setting up some play action opportunities for senior QB Zac Dahman. Just when I thought I was done, Mark Lawrence chimed in to tell me that Army has yet to allow ANY team 200 rushing yards this season. That certainly does not bode well for the Falcons who, under DeBerry, are 17-34-1 SU & 14-34 ATS (29%) in games when they fail to rush for 200 yards, including 0-8 ATS as home favorites of 4 or more points. So who cares who wins SU, lets take the generous points and hope for a close battle.
Forecast: Air Force 28, Army 24
OPINION SELECTION ON ARMY +11
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
5*
4*
3*
3* COMMING SOON
2* NEVADA -4.5
1* TENNESSEE +8
1* SMU -7 (-120)
1* ARMY +11 [color:green]UPGRADED[/color]
Opinions: SOUTH FLORIDA +3 DOWNGRADED
--------------------------------------------------
HAWAII (3 - 5) at NEVADA (4 - 3)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 4:00 PM
vs Analysis
Hawaii (3-5, 3-3 WAC) suffered a crucial home loss last week to then No. 22 Fresno State (27-13). Sophomore quarterback Colt Brennan and the Warrior offense were able to out-gain Fresno State 456 to 445 in total yards and penetrated the red zone eight times, but came away with just 13 points. Brennan finished the game 35-of-54 passing for 327 yards, two interceptions and one touchdown. On the season, Brennan has completed 239-of-346 attempts for 2,777 yards, nine interceptions, and 22 touchdowns. The Irvine, Calif., native has placed himself among the nations best in total offense (362.0), first in the WAC, second nationally, and passing (347.1), first in the WAC. Freshmen receiver Davone Bess continues to put up record-breaking numbers this season. For the third consecutive game, Bess has reached the century mark. Against Fresno State, the rookie tied the school record with 14 grabs for a career high 158 yards. Senior running back Nate Ilaoa also has a career night against the Bulldogs. Ilaoa gained a career high 95 yards on 10 carries and added three receptions for 18 yards. It was the highest rushing output by any UH player this season. Meanwhile, Nevada (4-3 SU/ATS, 3-1 WAC ) is currently tied for second with Louisiana Tech and two wins ahead of the Warriors in WAC standings. Opening the season alternating wins and losses, the Wolf Pack finally hit stride with three consecutive wins against WAC foes San Jose, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech. However, head coach Chris Ault and his team suffered a lopsided 49-14 loss last week to conference leader Boise State. After meanger offensive output in the beginning of the season, Nevada is now clicking offensively under HC Chris Ault, averaging 29 points, 153 yards rushing and 276 passing per contest. Nevada's offense is led by junior quarterback Jeff Rowe. Against Boise State, Rowe was 21-of-38 for 307 yards with one touchdown and is second in the WAC in passing average (265.9) and total offense (287.7). Rowe will look to hand the ball off to running back B.J. Mitchell. The senior is second in the WAC in rushing with 134 carries for 668 yards. Mitchell was named the WAC offensive Player of the Week on Oct. 24 for his performance against Idaho. Senior Nichiren Flowers and junior Caleb Spencer are Nevada's top receivers. Both are among the WAC leaders in receptions per game. Flowers has 39 catches for 514 yards and one touchdown while Spencer has 41 grabs for 551 yards and four touchdowns. Against Boise State, Flowers had a team best nine grabs for 136 yards. The Nevada defense is ranked third in the WAC, allowing 379.4 yards per game.
It would make all of the logical sense in the world that the Rainbow Warriors would struggle when having to play in cold and windy Reno in November, and for the second time in three years they are stuck with this trip. Ever what is like to be a player on Hawaii having to travel on the road. Well I have and here is there travel itinerary for this week trip to Nevada. The Warriors will meet for team breakfast a 9:30 a.m. and get on a bus to the airport by 10:15. They then will board a plane which is scheduled to depart Honolulu at 1 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 3 (Aloha Airlines Charter Flight). They will arrive in Reno, Nev. at 8:21 p.m. They then have to board a bus, travel to their Hotel (John Ascuaga's Nugget) and hopefully should be in bed by 11 p.m. They then have a practice, press conference ad sleep again. The team will depart immediately after the game aboard another Aloha Airline Charter Flight scheduled to arrive in Honolulu at approximately 11:19 p.m on Sunday. I’m sure the Hawaii players are happy that this is their final road game of the year.
The home team has dominated the series. The host is 5-0 ATS in this series, with the home team on an 18-3 spread run in Reno games, as well as a 14-6 spread run in Rainbow tilts. Nevada is 7-0 ATS at home before BB road games and has covered five in a row as home chalk. The last time Hawaii made this trip they generated only 14 points in a 10-point loss. That is part of an 0-4 ATS tally in November road games the past four seasons, games that they lost to the spread by a combined 60 points. Now they have to not only deal with the elements and a Wolfpack secondary that can match up to their tactics (allowing just 46.5% completions this season, with two interception returns for TD’s), but also do it the week after their intense effort to try to upset Fresno State. Nevada is already 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season in Chris Ault’s return, creating the aura of “just like old times” around the region, impressively beating the spread by 55 points in the process. And don't look now, but the Wolfpack of Nevada is only 2 wins from bowl eligibility. Oh and it that’s not enough, Nevada is also play with revenge and surely want to erase the memory of the 48-26 pounding they took on the Island last year. Lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: Nevada Reno 37, Hawaii 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEVADA -4.5
TENNESSEE (3 - 4) at NOTRE DAME (5 - 2)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 2:30 PM
vs Analysis
Tennessee breaks from Southeastern Conference play and travels north to South Bend, Ind., where it looks to get back on the winning track against Notre Dame. Tennessee (3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is the most disappointing team in the country, expected to be a Top 10 team this season they have lost 3 in a row. Many argue that Tennessee is second in the nation in NFL-level talent, behind only USC in terms of the number and quality of players on the roster that will be playing on Sundays in seasons to come. But all of that talent has done little for the Volunteers this year because the team has little chemistry and ongoing quarterback problems. Their offense has been unable to run the ball (3.3 yards per carry, 110 yds rushing pg) and averaging a meager 16 points per contest. Sophomore QB Erick Ainge and senior Rick Clausen have been erratic. Phil Fulmer used both QBs in last week’s 16-15 loss at home to South Carolina, the first time the Gamecocks ever won there. Ainge was 9-of-21 for 65 yards, Claussen was 5-of-11 for 34 yards, one pick. Both QBs have lost confidence. Also, Randy Sanders resigned as Tennessee's offensive coordinator Monday, two days after the Volunteers lost their third straight game with another punchless performance. Tennessee's offense averages 16 points a game, and they are 99th in total offense, 98th in rushing offense, and 101st in passing efficiency. The defense is good, but they take on an explosive Notre Dame offense. Notre Dame (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) has had an extra week to prepare and Charlie Weis's offense is averaging 37.8 points, 152 yards rushing, 340 passing per game. Junior QB Brady Quinn has transformed himself into one of the elite quarterbacks in the nation with 65.8% completion, 2,352 yards, 20 TDs, 4 INTs. All in all there is really no dispute that Notre Dame has the superior offense between the two clubs, but their losses to both Michigan State and USC were shootouts against teams with vulnerable defenses. One year ago, Notre Dame pulled a 17-13 upset win at No. 11 Tennessee. The Vols also lead the all-time series with Notre Dame 4-3, dating to 1978. Tennessee is 2-1 all-time in South Bend.
This line opened at Notre Dame -8 and has surprisingly bet up to -9.5. Also early betting numbers show that for every one bet on Tennessee three bets are being placed on the Irish. Hmmmm? Certainly very interesting but not surprising as Notre Dame is traditionally a public favorite. Of course though for me I will be backing Tennessee with A LOT of confidence. I mean come on...9.5 points sure is a lot of points to lay to a team some preseason experts thought would win the national championship, and its actually a lot of points to lay to any Tennessee team. All the trends I have discovered back the Vols. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last ten as road dogs while the Irish chime in with a pitiful 2-11-1 ATS mark as home favorites off a SU ATS win. In addition, the Irish are a poor 10-26 at home against avenging teams. Aside from the trends lets take a look at the match-ups. As stated above, everybody knows of Tennessee’s struggles offensively, but many of their opponents (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) fielded defenses that were far superior to the Notre Dame defense they will see this weekend. Like the rest of the good teams in the SEC, Tennessee has a superior defense that is by far the best defense that Notre Dame has faced by a considerable margin (132 yards superior to the Irish D), so I expect the Vols to give Brady Quinn a hard time this weekend. Also keeping in mind that the only team with a winning record that Notre Dame has beaten is Michigan and I have no other choice but to the considerable points with this live dog.
Forecast: Notre Dame 21, Tennessee 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON TENNESSEE +9.5
RICE (0 - 7) at SMU (2 - 6)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 3:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Owls of Rice (0-7 SU/1-6 ATS) have been an embarrassment with their 13-game losing streak, along with a defense which has allowed 44 ppg in their last 11 outings. Indeed, Rice just completed a three-game home stand...and amazing lost all three. That's significant because Rice hasn't won a game. The Owls have had a brutal schedule, with big losses at Texas and UCLA playing mostly road games. They've had manageable games against UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa and Navy, but lost them all, giving up 45, 41, 41 and 41 points. The defense has been the weak spot allowing 211 rushing yards per contest. They did play with some spunk Saturday, losing 38-31 to mighty UTEP as a +19 home dog but even this is a bit misleading as that ATS win was in large park thanks to a 21-pt 2nd half, with all 3 TDs coming off UTEP turnovers. This week's game and the following week at home against a beatable Tulane would be its best shots to avoid a winless season. Enter the SMU Mustangs (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS), who've certainly turned more than few heads this season, which began with their upset of TCU in game #2, & resumed in game #4, after a pair of bombs vs Texas A&M & Tulane. ****** of 8½, 21, & 7 pts in 3 of their last 4 games. SMU is playing better behind quarterback Jerad Romo (5 TDs, 6 INTs). They are kind of a fluke team, with stunning wins over TCU and UAB, yet losses to Marshall, East Carolina and Tulsa. In fact, they were a favorite once this season, against East Carolina, and Romo had his worst game of the season in a 24-17 loss to East Carolina with no TDs and 4 picks. Before that, SMU had a stunning 28-27 upset of UAB as a 20-point underdog on a 31-yard touchdown catch by Bobby Chase as time expired. Romo completed 30 of 43 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns in that one, so you never know which QB (or team) is going to show up. They've had two weeks to prepare after Tulsa defeated Southern Methodist 20-13. The SMU defense is allowing 27.8 points, 148 yards rushing and 256 passing each contest.
SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this avenging homecoming game which is one of the major factors as to why I’m all over this selection. The term “revenge” is often thrown around a little too lightly in the handicapping world, but when you embarrassed and humiliated like SMU was last season then it hold a little more water like in this case. As mentioned above Rice is on a 13 game loosing streak. Anybody know who their last win Was against? SMU! Indeed the Owls clobbered them 44-10 last year and continued to run up the score eve when the game was securely in the books. SMU has already reversed a 44-0 margin against them vs. TCU this season (by 55 points, into 21-10 for), and this is their first revenge game since. Last season’s result against was 44-10, with Rice’s second, third, fourth, fifth and six scores made on drives of 24, 28, 21, 0 and 28 yards. SMU defense has since been vastly improved and arguably one of the more underrated squads in the country. I’m not sure I can sum up this game any better then an article I read on it so I will quote it for your benefit. “Unlike Rice’s first point-spread cover of the season last week, which occurred home with the benefit of a three-score, pre-game cushion vs. disinterested favorite UTEP, this opponent sees fire in its eyes when the winless Owls’ logo shows up. “These guys stink, yet they beat us in their place last season when we were 1-5 and had nothing to look forward to? Now we’re 3-5 and still with a chance to be 6-5?” Kill!
Forecast: SMU 34, Rice 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SMU -7 (-120 BUY ½ POINT)
ARMY (1 - 6) at AIR FORCE (3 - 6)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/5/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
The battle for the Commander in Chief's Trophy between two teams limping through poor seasons. Army (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) actually comes in on the winning streak, with a 20-0 victory over a bad Akron defense. QB Zac Dahman and RB Carlton Jones lead a young ground-oriented attack that is averaging just 14 points and 2.8 yards per rush. Army is 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS on the road where the Cadets are getting beat by a 27-14 average, though the last game was at Akron. Meanwhile, Air Force (3-6) has lost 6 of 7 games and the defense has been positively brutal, allowing 48 and 62 the last two games and the back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in the Fisher DeBerry era (1984-present)! Air Force also has problems behind center as do-it-all quarterback Shaun Carney left the BYU game with a hand injury and is not expected to start this week. Air Force has the top-rated rushing offense in the MWC and is ranked eighth in the country, averaging 244.9 yards per game but their major downfall this season has been their defense which currently ranks dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Indeed, their defense has been destroyed to the tune of 110 points and 1,209 yards the past two weeks, including allowing B.Y.U. (last week) to reach 300 both running and passing yards. Not only have the losses been taking their toll, but this is also the 10th straight game without a bye week, which takes an additional measure away from a squad that is short on depth.
The SU trends certainly do not lie as Air Force has won 13 straight at home vs. Army, dating back to 1977 when the Black Knights won 31-6 in Falcon Stadium and leads the series 26-12-1. Air Force has won eight straight against Army and 15 of the last 16. But this Air Force program is in absolute turmoil after legendary coach Fisher DeBerry made his second insensitive racial remark about black athletes (and their ability to run the ball better then white athletes…like we didn’t know that already…but still should not be said publically) in less than a year. Unfortunately, this distraction has hurt the players on their field, as their campus has been a media circus. Defensively, Air force ranks 106th in the NCAA defensively and that’s a full 115 yards worse than Army's. To complicate matters, the Cadets have an extra week to prepare for their tricky option attack, which can give non-defensive minded clubs fits. Army has had two weeks to prepare for this contest fresh off of their first win of the season, and the one-two rushing tandem of Carlton Jones (219 yards vs. the Falcons last year) and Scott Wesley can control the ball for long stretches in this one, while also setting up some play action opportunities for senior QB Zac Dahman. Just when I thought I was done, Mark Lawrence chimed in to tell me that Army has yet to allow ANY team 200 rushing yards this season. That certainly does not bode well for the Falcons who, under DeBerry, are 17-34-1 SU & 14-34 ATS (29%) in games when they fail to rush for 200 yards, including 0-8 ATS as home favorites of 4 or more points. So who cares who wins SU, lets take the generous points and hope for a close battle.
Forecast: Air Force 28, Army 24
OPINION SELECTION ON ARMY +11
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention to arrive safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but,rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming: WOW!!! What a ride!! 
It's always noon somewhere! 
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