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Spear-it NFL Public Money Fades- 8-0- Add your fade.
I found it interesting that some of you have placed info on what your books are showing as money favorites. In football and basketball- these figures can earn a tidy profit. I know most of you are not even thinking NFL at this time.
I regret playing against this system on Pitt and loss money like many of you- I am determined not to let the trends and public sway me in the future-if I can help it. Trends do not take in the overkill that the public performs on a game- I believe the opening line is used for trends but can't prove it. They do show money moving a game stats- so this may be a true fact. Anyone with info - please respond. This is a fade on public money- It hits at between 55 and 60 % religiously in most sports. Baseball is much less.
Every week a direct contact with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and which games are the Sharps pounding. Already this NFL season has produce a lot of surprises.
NFL Week 8 Recap
NFL Week 8 had all the makings for a stellar Sunday for the Public, lots of mismatched teams, and key football numbers to tease. Handle sizes reflected this, growing by over 10%. But even the sure things, weren’t so “sure” in Week 8.
“They (the public) teased the hell out of Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh,” said 5Dimes line manager. All of those teams failing to cover straight bets and teaser bets was the driving force behind a profitable Sunday, and a monstrous Monday Night game for the books. “Sunday was a good day,” said Scott Kaminsky line manager for Bowmans, “but Monday night was our biggest game of the year.” This sentiment was echoed around the sports betting industry.
Again the public fades showed that in games with over 65% of the action on one side the Public posted another losing record 1-4. That makes 8 straight losing weekends for the Public.
Yes, 8 straight losing weekends for the Public! 8-0 for public fades.
Games to Watch analysis posted another winning weekend with a 2-1 record for NFL Week 8. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 21-10= 68% so far on public fades in NFL alone.
NFL Week 9 – Games to Watch
With all those teasers losing last week, handle sizes will be slightly off this week.
The public teams continue to be San Diego, Carolina, Seattle, and of course, Indy. This week’s surprise Public team is Atlanta.
The theme of this week’s column is home cooking. Bad teams playing at home tend to play with a little more heart. This week offers a couple of excellent examples of home field advantage. Let’s see what NFL Week 9 has in store.
San Diego vs New York Jets
New York Jets +7
The Public can’t get enough of L-Train and the Chargers. “We did get some Sharp buy back at 6.5, but the San Diego game will be one of our biggest games of the week”, informs Scott Kaminsky, line manager for Bowmans.” Most books opened at 5.5 and quickly retreated to 6 and 6.5. I’m even seeing a 7 at 5Dimes if you’re willing to lay 7 -120. I anticipate the Public money pushing this line to 6.5-7 by kickoff.
New York Giants vs San Fran
San Fran +11.5
The Giants are coming off a 36-0 trouncing of a pretty decent Washington Redskins squad. Now they take their show on the road and play the rejuvenated San Fran 49ers. San Fran is coming off their biggest win in years. Already Public action has pushed this game from NYG -9.5 to -11.5. The media fueling hype around Eli Manning as the second coming of God has helped distort the Public perception. Eli, the day of reckoning is almost at hand!
“We opened at 10 and immediately saw a flood of Giants money,” said Scott from Bowmans. “We’ve quickly moved to 10.5, and then 11.” The Public money continues to pour in on NYG.
I fully expect to see 12 on the board before kick. I’d wait to bet this game late on Sunday. The general feeling on the sportsbook side is the Sharp buy back will come on Sunday when the game hits 12 or 12.5. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m showing 5Dimes.com offering an 11.5. I’ll take it.
Seattle vs Arizona
Play on Arizona +4
I talked with Steve Stone, line manger at Oasis, who said, “We opened at 4.5 and the Public ate it up. I’d say in the first 12 hours we only wrote tickets for Seattle. Then whamo, we had a couple of Sharp accounts take Arizona +4.5 pushing us down to 4.”
With the large amount of Public action Seattle is generating, I’d be surprised if this game didn’t move back to 4.5 or even 5.5 by game time. As always our money is with the Sharps, but I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m seeing only 4 available.
Games to Watch (21-10)
New York Jets +7
San Fran +11.5
Arizona +4
I am doing a four team teaser with Baltimore. I sense Baltimore played well enough to win last Monday and they will have the rocks to avoid losing again. Wright is playing well at QB. Team is motivated.
Each team gets 13 points for tease. Waiting and seeing when time is right for the bet.
Also playing each straight up. Good Luck.
It should be another wild NFL Weekend.
I regret playing against this system on Pitt and loss money like many of you- I am determined not to let the trends and public sway me in the future-if I can help it. Trends do not take in the overkill that the public performs on a game- I believe the opening line is used for trends but can't prove it. They do show money moving a game stats- so this may be a true fact. Anyone with info - please respond. This is a fade on public money- It hits at between 55 and 60 % religiously in most sports. Baseball is much less.
Every week a direct contact with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and which games are the Sharps pounding. Already this NFL season has produce a lot of surprises.
NFL Week 8 Recap
NFL Week 8 had all the makings for a stellar Sunday for the Public, lots of mismatched teams, and key football numbers to tease. Handle sizes reflected this, growing by over 10%. But even the sure things, weren’t so “sure” in Week 8.
“They (the public) teased the hell out of Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh,” said 5Dimes line manager. All of those teams failing to cover straight bets and teaser bets was the driving force behind a profitable Sunday, and a monstrous Monday Night game for the books. “Sunday was a good day,” said Scott Kaminsky line manager for Bowmans, “but Monday night was our biggest game of the year.” This sentiment was echoed around the sports betting industry.
Again the public fades showed that in games with over 65% of the action on one side the Public posted another losing record 1-4. That makes 8 straight losing weekends for the Public.
Yes, 8 straight losing weekends for the Public! 8-0 for public fades.
Games to Watch analysis posted another winning weekend with a 2-1 record for NFL Week 8. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 21-10= 68% so far on public fades in NFL alone.
NFL Week 9 – Games to Watch
With all those teasers losing last week, handle sizes will be slightly off this week.
The public teams continue to be San Diego, Carolina, Seattle, and of course, Indy. This week’s surprise Public team is Atlanta.
The theme of this week’s column is home cooking. Bad teams playing at home tend to play with a little more heart. This week offers a couple of excellent examples of home field advantage. Let’s see what NFL Week 9 has in store.
San Diego vs New York Jets
New York Jets +7
The Public can’t get enough of L-Train and the Chargers. “We did get some Sharp buy back at 6.5, but the San Diego game will be one of our biggest games of the week”, informs Scott Kaminsky, line manager for Bowmans.” Most books opened at 5.5 and quickly retreated to 6 and 6.5. I’m even seeing a 7 at 5Dimes if you’re willing to lay 7 -120. I anticipate the Public money pushing this line to 6.5-7 by kickoff.
New York Giants vs San Fran
San Fran +11.5
The Giants are coming off a 36-0 trouncing of a pretty decent Washington Redskins squad. Now they take their show on the road and play the rejuvenated San Fran 49ers. San Fran is coming off their biggest win in years. Already Public action has pushed this game from NYG -9.5 to -11.5. The media fueling hype around Eli Manning as the second coming of God has helped distort the Public perception. Eli, the day of reckoning is almost at hand!
“We opened at 10 and immediately saw a flood of Giants money,” said Scott from Bowmans. “We’ve quickly moved to 10.5, and then 11.” The Public money continues to pour in on NYG.
I fully expect to see 12 on the board before kick. I’d wait to bet this game late on Sunday. The general feeling on the sportsbook side is the Sharp buy back will come on Sunday when the game hits 12 or 12.5. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m showing 5Dimes.com offering an 11.5. I’ll take it.
Seattle vs Arizona
Play on Arizona +4
I talked with Steve Stone, line manger at Oasis, who said, “We opened at 4.5 and the Public ate it up. I’d say in the first 12 hours we only wrote tickets for Seattle. Then whamo, we had a couple of Sharp accounts take Arizona +4.5 pushing us down to 4.”
With the large amount of Public action Seattle is generating, I’d be surprised if this game didn’t move back to 4.5 or even 5.5 by game time. As always our money is with the Sharps, but I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m seeing only 4 available.
Games to Watch (21-10)
New York Jets +7
San Fran +11.5
Arizona +4
I am doing a four team teaser with Baltimore. I sense Baltimore played well enough to win last Monday and they will have the rocks to avoid losing again. Wright is playing well at QB. Team is motivated.
Each team gets 13 points for tease. Waiting and seeing when time is right for the bet.
Also playing each straight up. Good Luck.
It should be another wild NFL Weekend.
It's always noon somewhere! 
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