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Guys, sorry, but I've only been following this site for a little less than a year...so I'm not fully up to speed. I know I'd bet on ANY game in the NBA that Frank puts out. If Chuck likes a baseball side, that's good enough for my money. And of course there are plenty of others in here who will win net units each year.
But I really didn't have a chance last year to keep track of the College BB picks here.
Who stands out as someone who has come out net units ahead for the season more often than not?
Many thanks,
P.S. I am removing Green Bay as a play from my NFL picks. I did a study some time ago that showed betting *on* a team the *first* (and only the first) week that their starting QB was out was a *winning* bet....not the losing bet that your intuition would tell you.
There are several factors at work: 1) The line moves...often too much to reflect the real extent of the loss 2) The rest of the team that lost the QB brings their game up to another level, since they know they are up against it (look what Baltimore did last week when they knew they were without their two defensive stars) 3) The opponent has a slight let down "Phew.....so and so's out, this is going to be a lot easier" 4) In most cases, the difference between the starter and the back-up is not as great as is generally believed.
All of these factors are subtle, but when combined they give you a definite bias to the team that lost the QB.
Since I otherwise liked GB...I'm just going to lay off the game.
And remember, this system does *not* apply to any other weeks but the first week the regular starter doesn't start.
Best of luck!
But I really didn't have a chance last year to keep track of the College BB picks here.
Who stands out as someone who has come out net units ahead for the season more often than not?
Many thanks,
P.S. I am removing Green Bay as a play from my NFL picks. I did a study some time ago that showed betting *on* a team the *first* (and only the first) week that their starting QB was out was a *winning* bet....not the losing bet that your intuition would tell you.
There are several factors at work: 1) The line moves...often too much to reflect the real extent of the loss 2) The rest of the team that lost the QB brings their game up to another level, since they know they are up against it (look what Baltimore did last week when they knew they were without their two defensive stars) 3) The opponent has a slight let down "Phew.....so and so's out, this is going to be a lot easier" 4) In most cases, the difference between the starter and the back-up is not as great as is generally believed.
All of these factors are subtle, but when combined they give you a definite bias to the team that lost the QB.
Since I otherwise liked GB...I'm just going to lay off the game.
And remember, this system does *not* apply to any other weeks but the first week the regular starter doesn't start.
Best of luck!
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