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Here is how I see the derby playing out aftrer studying the form and doing some internet research.
The start
I expect a very fast pace with Indian Express, Brancusi, and Peace Rules going out fast. I expect Peace Rules to let Indian Express and Brancusi carry the fast pace and hold back just off the lead. FunnyCide and Scrimshaw should be just behind Peace Rules and trhe other horses will be jockeying for position farther back.
The middle
I expect Peace rules to run by the tiring front runners about 3/4 to 1 mile into the race. Then it is up to the rest to catch Peace Rules, which is somethin no one has been very good at. At this point, Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Ten most wanted and Domestic dispute should be within striking distance.
The stretch run
I think Peace Rules will be tough to catch as long as he doesn't expend too much energy making his move too soon. I think Funny Cide and Scrimshaw will tire from chasing a better horse. I think Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Domestic Disturbence, and Ten most wanted will make a huge move down the stretch. Domestic disturbance will not be able to keep up with the better horses. Atswhatimtalkingabout will start its move too late and will not be able to catch these good horses. My guess with Pat Day is that he will run a poor race which will keep Ten most wanted from havng a chance to win, but he should be close.
At the Wire
I expect Buddy Gil and Empire Maker to be breathing down Peace Rules neck in what should be a tight finish. It is tough to go against the great track announcer Dave Johnson, and the horses own trainer who says that Peace Rules cannot beat Empire Maker, but if I had to pick a straight triple it would be
1.) Peace Rules
2.) Empire Maker
3.) Buddy Gil.
The triple wheel I will play is the following. For a $1 bet it will cost $54
1st: Peace Rules/Buddy Gil/Empire Maker
2nd: Same 3 as up top/Ten Most Wanted
3rd: Same 4 as in 2nd/Funny Cide/Scrimshaw/Domestic Disturbance/atswhatimtalkingabout
Good luck to all
The start
I expect a very fast pace with Indian Express, Brancusi, and Peace Rules going out fast. I expect Peace Rules to let Indian Express and Brancusi carry the fast pace and hold back just off the lead. FunnyCide and Scrimshaw should be just behind Peace Rules and trhe other horses will be jockeying for position farther back.
The middle
I expect Peace rules to run by the tiring front runners about 3/4 to 1 mile into the race. Then it is up to the rest to catch Peace Rules, which is somethin no one has been very good at. At this point, Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Ten most wanted and Domestic dispute should be within striking distance.
The stretch run
I think Peace Rules will be tough to catch as long as he doesn't expend too much energy making his move too soon. I think Funny Cide and Scrimshaw will tire from chasing a better horse. I think Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Domestic Disturbence, and Ten most wanted will make a huge move down the stretch. Domestic disturbance will not be able to keep up with the better horses. Atswhatimtalkingabout will start its move too late and will not be able to catch these good horses. My guess with Pat Day is that he will run a poor race which will keep Ten most wanted from havng a chance to win, but he should be close.
At the Wire
I expect Buddy Gil and Empire Maker to be breathing down Peace Rules neck in what should be a tight finish. It is tough to go against the great track announcer Dave Johnson, and the horses own trainer who says that Peace Rules cannot beat Empire Maker, but if I had to pick a straight triple it would be
1.) Peace Rules
2.) Empire Maker
3.) Buddy Gil.
The triple wheel I will play is the following. For a $1 bet it will cost $54
1st: Peace Rules/Buddy Gil/Empire Maker
2nd: Same 3 as up top/Ten Most Wanted
3rd: Same 4 as in 2nd/Funny Cide/Scrimshaw/Domestic Disturbance/atswhatimtalkingabout
Good luck to all
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