Indianapolis at New England. Here we go again. Last season, we didn't have to wait so long for the marquee-est of matchups -- it hit us on Thursday of Week 1. For the first time in this recent rivalry, regular season or playoffs, it seems like everything favors the Colts -- undefeated record, improved defense, two weeks to prepare for Monday night and injuries having had more of an impact on the Patriots.
It hasn't been easy for the Pats. They've had to scratch out their victories and have seemed overmatched in their losses. Meanwhile, the Colts have been rolling along, with no opponents capable of keeping up with them.
If the game was at the RCA Dome, I would easily pick Indy. But there's something about Bill Belichick vs. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in big games that I can't pick against New England at Foxboro in this particular pairing.
The Colts will get their points, led by league-leading rusher Edgerrin James, but the Pats can counter well on the ground, and Brady's ability to get rid of the ball quickly and spread it around will neutralize the speed and aggressiveness of the Colts' defense. It might not be pretty statistically for the Pats' defenders, but they will once again be inspired to make the key plays to make the statement that "We're still the champs." Patriots 27, Colts 24.
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Carolina at Tampa Bay. The Panthers' 1-2 start made me worry about their Super Bowl chances, but since then, they've reeled off four straight victories in typical Cardiac Cats fashion. They won't always blow people away, but they have a knack for winning close games, someway, somehow. Style points don't show up in the standings.
Jake Delhomme-to-Steve Smith has been the league's top passing combination, and their defense has responded well up front despite losing stalwart tackle Kris Jenkins for the second straight season. Stephen Davis isn't eating up big yards, but he's money at paydirt time. Then there's coach John Fox, who has gotten the most out of his versatile roster.
As for the Bucs, their defense is back to befuddling every opponent, but some major offensive concerns have risen with a QB change to Chris Simms and a backfield that's battling nagging injuries. The pleasant surprise on that offense has been Joey Galloway, who's back to burning defensive backs.
The NFC South is a tough division, with these teams virtually tied with the Falcons in first place. It will take defense, discipline and big plays in the clutch to emerge as the division winner. Although Tampa Bay has the first part down, Fox and Delhomme give Carolina the edge in the other two. Panthers 17, Buccaneers 13.
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK II
Philadelphia at Washington. Both teams are coming off defensive debacles against high-powered offenses on the road, so this will be somewhere in between on the scoreboard. The Eagles usually play their best games when they're the most desperate, especially in prime time, and the energy of a Sunday night home crowd will certainly fire up the Redskins. With both teams wired as such, this game will go down to the wire.
It's just a hunch, but the Eagles will find a way to keep Washington's balance of Clinton Portis and Mark Brunell in check just enough to give their explosive passing game a chance to take it late. Eagles 23, Redskins 20.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears at Baton Rouge. Bears fans and Mike Ditka both know nearby New Orleans well -- it's where 20 years ago, they capped their dominant 15-1 1985 season with a Super Bowl victory, and it was Ditka's coaching stop after the Second City. While Chicago continues to celebrate the White Sox's World Series victory, it's time to get excited about its pro football team again.
Rookie Kyle Orton isn't exactly a "funky QB," but their defense has become a similar daunting force and Thomas Jones has brought a little Sweetness back to their running game. As for this week's opponent, the home-away-from-Superdome Saints, their offensive mistakes will only be magnified against Brian Urlacher and friends. Bears 19, Saints 10.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Oakland at Kansas City. When these teams met in Week 2, neither offense had found its rhythm and the result was a "low-scoring" 40 points combined affair. The Raiders seem to finally have melded run it hard and throw it deep with their new personnel, while the Chiefs have finally rediscovered their downfield passing game.
This game should start being about Priest Holmes-Larry Johnson vs. LaMont Jordan, but that will only open things up later for Trent Green and Kerry Collins and their receivers against the teams' burnable secondaries. I see another entertaining contest between AFC West archrivals, with the Arrowhead faithful helping KC eke it out. Chiefs 33, Raiders 30.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
New York Jets over San Diego. The Chargers' challenging schedule has played a part in their 4-4 start, but they won't get any sympathy from the Jets, who also have faced a row of difficult opponents and the added obstacle of major injuries. Herman Edwards' team has the heart to stay competitive, and they'll be a little more than that coming off a bye against a team making a long road trip.
Look for Gang Green to follow what the Eagles did two weeks ago -- sell out to stop LaDainian Tomlinson, and take their chances with Drew Brees, who isn't nearly as effective away from SoCal. The Jets have wanted to throw the ball downfield themselves, and this is their chance. They should open it up against the Bolts' biggest hole -- the secondary. Jets 20, Chargers 17.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Atlanta over Miami. If you're in a survival football pool, you're probably scratching your head looking for "sure things" this week after already using eight teams. I think of all the games this week, this is the most favorable matchup for the favorite.
Why? Well, off a bye, Jim Mora will have his fast, aggressive defense rested and ready to go after Gus Frerotte. Offensively, rest also means fresher legs for Michael Vick and the healthy return of T.J. Duckett to bolster the league's top rushing offense. Even though the Dolphins should have some good success running the ball, they will lose the time-of-possession, field-position and turnover battles as well as the game, despite playing at home. Falcons 24, Dolphins 20.
REST OF THE WEEK
Houston at Jacksonville. The Texans have shown some life of late and are coming off their first victory, and they swept this division series last season. That confidence will keep them in the game for a while -- until the Jags' front four establishes its dominance against the shaky line that's blocking for David Carr and Domanick Davis. Jaguars 17, Texans 10.
Cincinnati at Baltimore. The Ravens showed great fight Monday night, and they can't afford to let up against their former defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis' young, fiery team. The Bengals will get a key road victory thanks to their aggressive defense forcing mistakes from Anthony Wright and Carson Palmer leading their versatile offense. Bengals 20, Ravens 19.
Detroit at Minnesota. With Daunte Culpepper out, Super Bowl-winning veteran backup Brad Johnson should benefit from a greater emphasis on maximum protection, the running of Mewelde Moore and a high-percentage short passing game. The Lions will counter with plenty of Kevin Jones, but their injury and inconsistency concerns at quarterback and wide receiver will keep them from rallying to win the game in the fourth quarter. Vikings 24, Lions 23.
Tennessee at Cleveland. Jeff Fisher and Romeo Crennel will have their teams ready to knock heads in a defensive-minded matchup that will result in big hits and big mistakes for both teams' limited offenses. There still will be a game-turning big play or two, and that will come from an individual Backyard Brawl with Browns/former Pitt wide receiver Antonio Bryant gobbling up yards against struggling Titans rookie/former West Virginia cornerback Pacman Jones. Browns 20, Titans 16.
Seattle at Arizona. The Seahawks will avoid falling into this trap game by keeping it simple -- letting Shaun Alexander carry the load and control the clock while the Cards' running game continues to dry up. Expect Seattle to dominate both lines of scrimmage, making it a long afternoon for Dennis Green against Mike Holmgren, his former NFC Central coaching counterpart. Seahawks 34, Cardinals 20.
New York Giants at San Francisco. Another Giants team will feel right at home by the Bay, although the Park will be Monster, not SBC. Speaking of monster, these Giants will avoid a post-shutout cross-country meltdown by just letting Eli Manning, Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress do their things against an overmatched 49ers defense. I like the fight in Niners accidental quarterback Cody Pickett, but he won't get nearly enough help. This one's for Trey Junkin. Giants 31, 49ers 23.
Pittsburgh at Green Bay. The Steelers have had everything Brett Favre would like to have this season -- a cohesive offensive line, a strong running game, healthy wideouts and a stingy defense. The combination will all help Black and Gold outshine Green and Gold. Win or lose this week, both teams can still boast the richest of fans and proudest of traditions. I think Charlie Batch won't do too much, but he also won't cost his team the game. Steelers 20, Packers 16.
Week 8 straight up: 9-5
Week 8 record vs. the spread: 7-7
Season record straight up: 73-43
Season record vs. the spread: 55-61
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