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WELL IN MY MOVING WEEKEND I FINALLY SNAPPED MY AMAZING STREAK OF WINNING 15 STRAIGHT WEEKS IN THE NFL BUT I ONLY RELEASED ALL 1* UNIT SELECTIONS AND MADE YOU ALL WELL AWARE OF WHAT I THOUGHT THE STRENGTH OF THE PLAYS WERE. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON AN AMAZING 18 OUT OF THE LAST 21 WEEKS COMBINED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON AND WON AN AMAZING 15 OUT OF 16 STRAIGHT WEEKS IN THE NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
SPECIAL NOTE: THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW PLAYS THIS WEEK UNLESS THE LINES MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS I DO NOT SEE MUCH VALUE THIS WEEK.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 9 WINS 1 LOSS (90%)
1* 9 WINS 15 LOSSES (37.5%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
3* SAN FRANSICO +11
2* DETROIT -3 +100
1* KANSAS CITY +6
1* NEW ORLEANS -2.5
1* HOUSTON -1
1* MINNESOTA +7.5
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CHICAGO (3 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 3)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
First place in the Black and Blue Division at stake for both of these 3-3 teams! The Bears (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) won their second straight game Sunday when they caged the Ravens 10-6. RB Thomas Jones topped the 100-yard mark for the fourth time in five games, rushing for 83 of his 139 yards in the fourth quarter in a driving rain at Soldier Field. The Bears held Baltimore to 199 net yards and remain the league's only team not to have allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Rookie QB Kyle Orton, who finished 15-of-29 for 145 yards, led the Bears on the early 78-yard TD drive that proved to be all they needed. Chicago is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, 27th in total offense! The Lions haven't been an offensive juggernaut, either, ranking 26th, though they found a QB Sunday. The days of Joey Harrington, otherwise known as the anti-Tom Brady, are over. Jeff Garcia is healthy and has replaced Harrington, who lost 33 of his 44 starts while throwing 58 interceptions. The Lions evened their record at 3-3 Sunday when they defeated Cleveland 13-10. QB Jeff Garcia, released by the Browns this year, came back and got some payback by running for a touchdown while leading the injury-ravaged Lions to the win. Garcia finished 22-of-34 for 210 yards, didn't turn the ball over and wasn't sacked. Detroit's defense intercepted three of Trent Dilfer's passes, sacked him four times and held the Browns to 174 total yards. By the end of Sunday's game, the injury list included all three of their Pro Bowl players from last season. Detroit return specialist Eddie Drummond has been out since the opening kickoff two weeks ago with a bruised left shin and sprained left knee. Defensive tackle Shaun Rogers went out in the first half Sunday with ligament damage in his right knee. CB Dre Bly, a Pro Bowler the last two years, went out in the third quarter with an injured right wrist. The Lions won both games a year ago (both unders) and this shapes up as a defensive struggle as well.
There are many angles on this game as to why the play is Detroit this weekend. First, we have a rookie quarterback (Orton) on the road who has shown us absolutely no ability to run a successful offense on the road. In his two previous road contests, Orton was only able to manage a total of 17 points while producing only one TD pass. As a whole, he is prone to mistakes, and his offensive line is a walking wounded with many players not 100% for this contest. Second, this is a huge revenge spot for Detroit as Bears humiliated them back in Week 2, winning 38-6. Couple that fact with the fact that the Lions are 15-5 ATS at home in same season revenge situations and the fact that they have defeated Chicago the past three times at home and we have some strong supporting data on the Lions. However, the most important angle on this game is the tremendous lift for the Lions by replacing Harrington with Garcia. Defenses can no longer put eight men in the box to key solely on Kevin Jones with Garcia passing now. Also helping the Lions is the return of fullback Corey Schlesinger, an excellent lead blocker. Jones has been having a down season and look for that to change with Garcia and Schlesinger in the lineup. Lastly, I cannot ignore the fact that Chicago boasts the NFL’s number #1 rated defense, but the lions have been playing good defense of their own, only allowing more than 21 points once in the Chicago loss. Who thought we would be saying in Week #9 that the Lions are in first place? I’m a believer...lay the small number.
Forecast: DET Lions 24, CHI Bears 7
PLAY 2* UNITS ON DETROIT -3 +100
KANSAS CITY (4 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 4)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 4:05 PM
vs
Analysis
This shapes up as one of the more entertaining games of the day. KC is 9th in the NFL in total offense, with a variety of weapons, and San Diego is 14th overall. Both teams are also in the Top 7 in scoring offense. The Chiefs (4-2 SU/ATS) still have defensive problems, sixth worst in the league in total defense. However, the offense is as good as ever and rolled over Miami last week, getting a boost with the recent return of Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf back in the lineup. That game was moved to Friday, so KC has a few extra days to prepare for this one. QB Trent Green and RBs Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson will keep the offense going, but this pass defense is weak, something the Chargers can exploit if they don't get too caught up in Marty Schottenheimer's conservative game plans. Meanwhile, San Diego (3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is outscoring opponents by a 27-21 average, but is off a shocking defeat in Philadelphia. The Eagles stacked the line to stop the San Diego running game led by star LaDainian Tomlinson, and it worked as San Diego had an incredible 21 rushing yards, 1.1 ypc! The Chargers lost a gut-wrenching game 20-17 in Philadelphia last week when a field goal was blocked late in the contest and returned for a game winning touchdown by the Eagles There's no doubt this is a talented team that has won at New England (41-17) and blew out the NY Giants, but they have excruciating close losses to Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas and now Philly. The Chargers have been out coached in those losses and they are not getting the breaks, a deadly combination. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a track meet.
As stated above, KC has a few extra days to prepare for this match-up and had the advantage of watching whenPhiladelphia presented a blueprint on how to keep LT contained so you can bet KC defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham took notes. Now LT goes against the leagues 7th ranked rush defense so the Chargers might have some difficulties again running the football. So in order to put some points up, the Chargers will have to get some points through the air, but agin might have some trouble as the Chief’s secondary is finally healthy with the return of CB Eric Warfield to the starting line-up; Warfield combined with CB Patrick Surtain should keep the Chargers receivers contained. We know that the Chiefs can run the football, and they'll be able to run it on the Chargers. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Chargers secondary is very suspect so look for KC to take some down field shots. The trend is also our friend as the underdog in this series is 5-0-2 ATS while KC has cashed in nine of their last thirteen tries as dogs with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when playing off a win. Take the generous points on this dangerous road dog.
Forecast: KC Chiefs 24, SD Chargers 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY +6
MIAMI (2 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 4:05 PM
* Note: Time change
vs 
Analysis
The Saints are going to have a lot of motivation playing for the first time this season in Louisiana as this game is in Baton Rouge, which is just about 80 miles from New Orleans. There are strong rumors about Saints owner Tom Benson moving his team away to San Antonio. Saints fans don’t want to see that and they’re going to be out in force to support their team. Miami (2-4 SU, ATS) got crushed by KC last week 30-20 when Hurricane Wilma moved their game from Sunday to Friday night. Gus Frerotte misfired on two potential touchdown passes and went 11-for-29, Ricky Williams lost 1 yard in six carries and the defense gave up four scoring drives of eight plays or more. Trent Green threw for 289 yards against Miami's injury-depleted secondary, and the Chiefs totaled a season-high 462 yards while controlling the ball for nearly 42 minutes. Miami is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road and has problems in the secondary, at quarterback and along the offensive line. The traveling Saints continue to have troubles as well, and lost to the Rams 28-17 on Sunday after leading 14-0. QB Aaron Brooks was 18-for-39 for 230 yards and threw touchdown passes of 11 yards to Donte' Stallworth and 17 yards to Az-Zahir Hakim for a quick 14-0 lead with five minutes left in the first quarter.
As stated above with specificity, this game basically amounts to a motivational play (with the Saints first game just 80 miles from their original New Orleans home), but there is some supporting data that also makes the Saints the right side this week. Can’t ignore the fact that Miami’s QB Gus Frerotte is playing miserable. He has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in four of the past five games. After playing this past Friday, the Dolphins have had a few more days off than New Orleans. However, to say the Dolphins have had A extra rest or prep time would be a stretch, as their preparations were disrupted by problems associated with Hurricane Wilma as it rolled through south Florida. Indeed, HC Nick Saban had to hack his way through debris in his yard just to get out of his house, and the teams facilities have been without air conditioning. This is also a very winnable game for the Saints and they know it. The Saints are very talented on offense, ranked 12th overall in total offense. They also boast a solid passing attack which will have some key fundamental match-up advantages against SS Tavares Tillman who replaces Tebucky Jones for Miami. The loss of the 220-pound Jones (torn chest muscle) is a big setback by the Dolphins, as Tillman (a converted CB weighing 190) has been largely a disappointment since being signed as a veteran free agent TY from the Carolina Panthers. Take the better team at home.
Projected Score: NO Saints 23, MIA Dolphins 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ORLEANS -2.5
SPECIAL NOTE: THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW PLAYS THIS WEEK UNLESS THE LINES MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS I DO NOT SEE MUCH VALUE THIS WEEK.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 9 WINS 1 LOSS (90%)
1* 9 WINS 15 LOSSES (37.5%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
3* SAN FRANSICO +11
2* DETROIT -3 +100
1* KANSAS CITY +6
1* NEW ORLEANS -2.5
1* HOUSTON -1
1* MINNESOTA +7.5
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CHICAGO (3 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 3)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
First place in the Black and Blue Division at stake for both of these 3-3 teams! The Bears (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) won their second straight game Sunday when they caged the Ravens 10-6. RB Thomas Jones topped the 100-yard mark for the fourth time in five games, rushing for 83 of his 139 yards in the fourth quarter in a driving rain at Soldier Field. The Bears held Baltimore to 199 net yards and remain the league's only team not to have allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Rookie QB Kyle Orton, who finished 15-of-29 for 145 yards, led the Bears on the early 78-yard TD drive that proved to be all they needed. Chicago is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, 27th in total offense! The Lions haven't been an offensive juggernaut, either, ranking 26th, though they found a QB Sunday. The days of Joey Harrington, otherwise known as the anti-Tom Brady, are over. Jeff Garcia is healthy and has replaced Harrington, who lost 33 of his 44 starts while throwing 58 interceptions. The Lions evened their record at 3-3 Sunday when they defeated Cleveland 13-10. QB Jeff Garcia, released by the Browns this year, came back and got some payback by running for a touchdown while leading the injury-ravaged Lions to the win. Garcia finished 22-of-34 for 210 yards, didn't turn the ball over and wasn't sacked. Detroit's defense intercepted three of Trent Dilfer's passes, sacked him four times and held the Browns to 174 total yards. By the end of Sunday's game, the injury list included all three of their Pro Bowl players from last season. Detroit return specialist Eddie Drummond has been out since the opening kickoff two weeks ago with a bruised left shin and sprained left knee. Defensive tackle Shaun Rogers went out in the first half Sunday with ligament damage in his right knee. CB Dre Bly, a Pro Bowler the last two years, went out in the third quarter with an injured right wrist. The Lions won both games a year ago (both unders) and this shapes up as a defensive struggle as well.
There are many angles on this game as to why the play is Detroit this weekend. First, we have a rookie quarterback (Orton) on the road who has shown us absolutely no ability to run a successful offense on the road. In his two previous road contests, Orton was only able to manage a total of 17 points while producing only one TD pass. As a whole, he is prone to mistakes, and his offensive line is a walking wounded with many players not 100% for this contest. Second, this is a huge revenge spot for Detroit as Bears humiliated them back in Week 2, winning 38-6. Couple that fact with the fact that the Lions are 15-5 ATS at home in same season revenge situations and the fact that they have defeated Chicago the past three times at home and we have some strong supporting data on the Lions. However, the most important angle on this game is the tremendous lift for the Lions by replacing Harrington with Garcia. Defenses can no longer put eight men in the box to key solely on Kevin Jones with Garcia passing now. Also helping the Lions is the return of fullback Corey Schlesinger, an excellent lead blocker. Jones has been having a down season and look for that to change with Garcia and Schlesinger in the lineup. Lastly, I cannot ignore the fact that Chicago boasts the NFL’s number #1 rated defense, but the lions have been playing good defense of their own, only allowing more than 21 points once in the Chicago loss. Who thought we would be saying in Week #9 that the Lions are in first place? I’m a believer...lay the small number.
Forecast: DET Lions 24, CHI Bears 7
PLAY 2* UNITS ON DETROIT -3 +100
KANSAS CITY (4 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 4)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 4:05 PM
vsAnalysis
This shapes up as one of the more entertaining games of the day. KC is 9th in the NFL in total offense, with a variety of weapons, and San Diego is 14th overall. Both teams are also in the Top 7 in scoring offense. The Chiefs (4-2 SU/ATS) still have defensive problems, sixth worst in the league in total defense. However, the offense is as good as ever and rolled over Miami last week, getting a boost with the recent return of Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf back in the lineup. That game was moved to Friday, so KC has a few extra days to prepare for this one. QB Trent Green and RBs Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson will keep the offense going, but this pass defense is weak, something the Chargers can exploit if they don't get too caught up in Marty Schottenheimer's conservative game plans. Meanwhile, San Diego (3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is outscoring opponents by a 27-21 average, but is off a shocking defeat in Philadelphia. The Eagles stacked the line to stop the San Diego running game led by star LaDainian Tomlinson, and it worked as San Diego had an incredible 21 rushing yards, 1.1 ypc! The Chargers lost a gut-wrenching game 20-17 in Philadelphia last week when a field goal was blocked late in the contest and returned for a game winning touchdown by the Eagles There's no doubt this is a talented team that has won at New England (41-17) and blew out the NY Giants, but they have excruciating close losses to Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas and now Philly. The Chargers have been out coached in those losses and they are not getting the breaks, a deadly combination. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a track meet.
As stated above, KC has a few extra days to prepare for this match-up and had the advantage of watching whenPhiladelphia presented a blueprint on how to keep LT contained so you can bet KC defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham took notes. Now LT goes against the leagues 7th ranked rush defense so the Chargers might have some difficulties again running the football. So in order to put some points up, the Chargers will have to get some points through the air, but agin might have some trouble as the Chief’s secondary is finally healthy with the return of CB Eric Warfield to the starting line-up; Warfield combined with CB Patrick Surtain should keep the Chargers receivers contained. We know that the Chiefs can run the football, and they'll be able to run it on the Chargers. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Chargers secondary is very suspect so look for KC to take some down field shots. The trend is also our friend as the underdog in this series is 5-0-2 ATS while KC has cashed in nine of their last thirteen tries as dogs with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when playing off a win. Take the generous points on this dangerous road dog.
Forecast: KC Chiefs 24, SD Chargers 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY +6
MIAMI (2 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5)
Week 8 Sunday, 10/30/2005 4:05 PM
* Note: Time change
vs Analysis
The Saints are going to have a lot of motivation playing for the first time this season in Louisiana as this game is in Baton Rouge, which is just about 80 miles from New Orleans. There are strong rumors about Saints owner Tom Benson moving his team away to San Antonio. Saints fans don’t want to see that and they’re going to be out in force to support their team. Miami (2-4 SU, ATS) got crushed by KC last week 30-20 when Hurricane Wilma moved their game from Sunday to Friday night. Gus Frerotte misfired on two potential touchdown passes and went 11-for-29, Ricky Williams lost 1 yard in six carries and the defense gave up four scoring drives of eight plays or more. Trent Green threw for 289 yards against Miami's injury-depleted secondary, and the Chiefs totaled a season-high 462 yards while controlling the ball for nearly 42 minutes. Miami is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road and has problems in the secondary, at quarterback and along the offensive line. The traveling Saints continue to have troubles as well, and lost to the Rams 28-17 on Sunday after leading 14-0. QB Aaron Brooks was 18-for-39 for 230 yards and threw touchdown passes of 11 yards to Donte' Stallworth and 17 yards to Az-Zahir Hakim for a quick 14-0 lead with five minutes left in the first quarter.
As stated above with specificity, this game basically amounts to a motivational play (with the Saints first game just 80 miles from their original New Orleans home), but there is some supporting data that also makes the Saints the right side this week. Can’t ignore the fact that Miami’s QB Gus Frerotte is playing miserable. He has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in four of the past five games. After playing this past Friday, the Dolphins have had a few more days off than New Orleans. However, to say the Dolphins have had A extra rest or prep time would be a stretch, as their preparations were disrupted by problems associated with Hurricane Wilma as it rolled through south Florida. Indeed, HC Nick Saban had to hack his way through debris in his yard just to get out of his house, and the teams facilities have been without air conditioning. This is also a very winnable game for the Saints and they know it. The Saints are very talented on offense, ranked 12th overall in total offense. They also boast a solid passing attack which will have some key fundamental match-up advantages against SS Tavares Tillman who replaces Tebucky Jones for Miami. The loss of the 220-pound Jones (torn chest muscle) is a big setback by the Dolphins, as Tillman (a converted CB weighing 190) has been largely a disappointment since being signed as a veteran free agent TY from the Carolina Panthers. Take the better team at home.
Projected Score: NO Saints 23, MIA Dolphins 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ORLEANS -2.5