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I've seen a lot of posts in this forum, many by otherwise very knowledgable handicappers, advising to buy the 1/2 point on some particular game.
I KNOW it seems tempting to buy that +6 1/2 up to +7, and yes, given the choice of course *I'd* rather have 7 than 6 1/2. That's not the question. The question is one of mathmatical *value*. The bookmaker is "selling" you something......1/2 a point, in this case. At a certain price it's worth buying...but beyond that it's just another over-priced commodity.
Think of it as you do insurance.....you'd LIKE insurance against everything in your house being stolen...and for a few hundred a year it probably makes sense...but what if the insurance company wanted $20,000 a year? The fact that you'd LIKE insurance is out-weighed by the fact that the price has taken the value out of it. In effect, if you buy that +9 1/2 up to +10, you are buying insurance from the bookmaker that the team you bet on won't lose by *exactly* 10 points, as this is the *only* scenario in which having not bought the 1/2 point will hurt you.
Great....some games *do* end up on 10 points, nobody would dispute that. BUT....the question, again, is are you getting mathmatically sound value for what you're paying? Nope. If you're a dime bettor, you're paying a $100 insurance policy to protect $1,100. That's *9%*. You're paying a WHOPPING 9% premium to insure against something that happens *much* less often than one time in 11....which is the breakeven point for whether it would make numerical sense or not to buy the hook.
I did a very comprehensive study on this...and it's not a matter of my opinion...or really even open to debate. If you buy a 1/2 point...EXCEPT onto or off of 3...you are losing money. And even at 3, it's only somewhat profitable if you're only having to lay an extra 10 cents, i.e. -120 instead of -110. And how many bookmakers let you do even THAT anymore. Most of them figured out that they were losing money by letting you buy the 1/2 off or or onto 3 for only -120 and raised it to -130..if not worse, a long time ago.
You may say..."Well...what about X game...I bought the 1/2 and it saved me from a loss". That's like saying that you bet on red once on a roulette wheel and won, after I've told you that roulette is a losing proposition in the long run. You don't lose every roll of the roulette wheel, that's not the issue. The issue is that if you made 1,000,000 rolls, you'ld lose 5.19% of the total amount bet.
So of course *sometimes* you'll do better if you had bought the 1/2, but that's irrelevant. The question is....what happens if you do it 1,000X, or a million times? The answer is (and again, this is simple math, and if you care to spend a WHOLE lot of time on research, which I've already done, you'll find the same answer for yourself) that you'll be WORSE off than if you'd just suffered in silence and settled for that +6 1/2, or 9 1/2 or 13 1/2...or any one of those other numbers that are so tempting to buy your way off of.
Percentages. Percentages. You're already fighting the bookie's juice, even at Pinnacle it will shred you if you're not careful. Do NOT make any donations to the bookie by throwing money away on over-priced insurance.
If you can't bring yourself to think this way than you have a gambler's mentality...and gamblers *always* lose in the end, which is why Caesars Palace is as plush and wonderful as it is
If you understand Blackjack and cardcounting, you will know that you *must* hit a 16 against a dealer's 10 (unless you are counting and the count is high...but we're talking about a basic strategy player...who just wants to follow the established mathmatical rules to keep his losses to the minimum). I've sat next to people playing blackjack who KNEW this, and still refused to hit the 16 because "I've got a huge bet out and I don't want to break". It is EXACTLY this misguided attitude that can lead people to buy 1/2 points. The rules of math don't change just because you're betting more. A money-losing deal at $1.00 is just as much a money-losing deal at $10,000.
Bite the bullet, shop for the best lines...but do NOT buy points!!
By the way, I gave out all of the NFL plays I am personally making in an earlier post. I am also making a value bet on the NE moneyline. I'm not willing to lay all the points on this particular game, but I *am* willing to lay -375 on a simple win by NE. You don't get 27% interest in one day in the bank, an NE won't lose this game. They may not cover, but they won't let Buff have the game.
I KNOW it seems tempting to buy that +6 1/2 up to +7, and yes, given the choice of course *I'd* rather have 7 than 6 1/2. That's not the question. The question is one of mathmatical *value*. The bookmaker is "selling" you something......1/2 a point, in this case. At a certain price it's worth buying...but beyond that it's just another over-priced commodity.
Think of it as you do insurance.....you'd LIKE insurance against everything in your house being stolen...and for a few hundred a year it probably makes sense...but what if the insurance company wanted $20,000 a year? The fact that you'd LIKE insurance is out-weighed by the fact that the price has taken the value out of it. In effect, if you buy that +9 1/2 up to +10, you are buying insurance from the bookmaker that the team you bet on won't lose by *exactly* 10 points, as this is the *only* scenario in which having not bought the 1/2 point will hurt you.
Great....some games *do* end up on 10 points, nobody would dispute that. BUT....the question, again, is are you getting mathmatically sound value for what you're paying? Nope. If you're a dime bettor, you're paying a $100 insurance policy to protect $1,100. That's *9%*. You're paying a WHOPPING 9% premium to insure against something that happens *much* less often than one time in 11....which is the breakeven point for whether it would make numerical sense or not to buy the hook.
I did a very comprehensive study on this...and it's not a matter of my opinion...or really even open to debate. If you buy a 1/2 point...EXCEPT onto or off of 3...you are losing money. And even at 3, it's only somewhat profitable if you're only having to lay an extra 10 cents, i.e. -120 instead of -110. And how many bookmakers let you do even THAT anymore. Most of them figured out that they were losing money by letting you buy the 1/2 off or or onto 3 for only -120 and raised it to -130..if not worse, a long time ago.
You may say..."Well...what about X game...I bought the 1/2 and it saved me from a loss". That's like saying that you bet on red once on a roulette wheel and won, after I've told you that roulette is a losing proposition in the long run. You don't lose every roll of the roulette wheel, that's not the issue. The issue is that if you made 1,000,000 rolls, you'ld lose 5.19% of the total amount bet.
So of course *sometimes* you'll do better if you had bought the 1/2, but that's irrelevant. The question is....what happens if you do it 1,000X, or a million times? The answer is (and again, this is simple math, and if you care to spend a WHOLE lot of time on research, which I've already done, you'll find the same answer for yourself) that you'll be WORSE off than if you'd just suffered in silence and settled for that +6 1/2, or 9 1/2 or 13 1/2...or any one of those other numbers that are so tempting to buy your way off of.
Percentages. Percentages. You're already fighting the bookie's juice, even at Pinnacle it will shred you if you're not careful. Do NOT make any donations to the bookie by throwing money away on over-priced insurance.
If you can't bring yourself to think this way than you have a gambler's mentality...and gamblers *always* lose in the end, which is why Caesars Palace is as plush and wonderful as it is
If you understand Blackjack and cardcounting, you will know that you *must* hit a 16 against a dealer's 10 (unless you are counting and the count is high...but we're talking about a basic strategy player...who just wants to follow the established mathmatical rules to keep his losses to the minimum). I've sat next to people playing blackjack who KNEW this, and still refused to hit the 16 because "I've got a huge bet out and I don't want to break". It is EXACTLY this misguided attitude that can lead people to buy 1/2 points. The rules of math don't change just because you're betting more. A money-losing deal at $1.00 is just as much a money-losing deal at $10,000.
Bite the bullet, shop for the best lines...but do NOT buy points!!
By the way, I gave out all of the NFL plays I am personally making in an earlier post. I am also making a value bet on the NE moneyline. I'm not willing to lay all the points on this particular game, but I *am* willing to lay -375 on a simple win by NE. You don't get 27% interest in one day in the bank, an NE won't lose this game. They may not cover, but they won't let Buff have the game.
Bet with your head...Not over it 
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