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Hi guys,
I've been lurking here for a long time, feasting on some GREAT NBA, MLB and CBB picks. I handicap none of those sports, so I *really* appreciate some of the really good handicapping skills that are exhibited here. There are too many good handicappers here for me to list, but I'd like to give a special thanks to Frank03 for his NBA work, and Chuck for his MLB work. I bought a new 911 Porsche recently, which was largely paid for from my MLB and NBA winnings. Much appreciated guys!!
My sport is NFL, and I've been handicapping it for years, and have a number of statistical methods that I don't *think* anyone else uses...at least not in exactly the same ways that I do. I've had one losing NFL season in the past 10 years, and have averaged about 56%. With the advent of Pinnacle and thier fantastic -104 pricing, 56% is a good result. And to be honest, it would take a lot of convincing for me to believe that ANYONE can consistantly do much better than 56% over a long period of time.
My picks for Sunday:
2*
WASHINGTON: Why NY is favored I don't know. Wash should take this game, and take it fairly easily. They are superior in almost every department. The public is in love with NY's "home record". A few games do not make a trend.....and believe me, NY uses the same players at home as they do on the road. NY was *lucky* to lose as close a game to Dallas as they did, they were outplayed badly and only by way of a series of flukes was the game not a blowout.
Everyone is in love with NY after beating Denver. Well Denver was RIPE to be beaten last week, it was their sceduled let-down week...and NY was the beneficiary. Even in THAT set-up situation, Denver *still* went into the 4th quarter well in the lead and it took a miracle finish by NY to win (but still not cover).
NY is vastly overvalued by the public, and thus the linemaker. Wash cruises.
2*
Chicago:
Again, there is no reason on earth that Detroit should be favored in this game. Even without the rash of *key* injuries that Detroit have suffered I'd like Chicago to win the game outright. As it stands, only multiple turnovers by Chicago could save Detroit from *another* spanking.
2*
Minnesota:
They may not win (though I did put on a little moneyline bet) but they most definitely should cover. Carolina has run up mediocre stats against mediocre competition. Minny has run up similar stats against somewhat better competition. And Minny is sky high, and desperate. In a dogfight Minny at least keeps the game close.
1*
New Orleans:
I make this line NO -9. That makes the game a steal at only -2 1/2. Both have played teams of modest means (looking at the key stats that I use).....but NO have done better. And there IS a home field advantage in this game. At Baton Rouge NO will be playing before a home crowd, and are in a classic set-up to turn it up for a nice win. Both NO and Mia are fairly bad teams. But Miami is in chaos...and don't match NO statistically. At -3 I might balk....but at anything under -3 NO is an easy pick.
*1
Tennesse:
A slightly better team.....at home...and getting a point. What more can I say? On a neutral field I'd make Tenn -1 1/2. Throw in the home field edge, and the point, and the smart money goes on Tenn.
1*
Green Bay: If this line gets to +10 (which I think it may well) I'm a GB bettor. I know everyone and thier dog are betting on Cincy...the injuries and all that. But that's in the line already. Cincy really aren't THAT good a team. They've piled up some VERY modest stats against some very modest competition...and had a lot of turnovers in their favor to boot...without which their record would be quite different. Don't get stampeded into taking Cincy here...GB will fight this to the death...and with Cincy's huge vulnerability to the run, the GB line could open lanes for almost anyone. The points look good to me.
1*
San Francisco Same as above, everyone wants TB. Well, TB are VASTLY over-rated, and the thing that is most overlooked about SF is that their TERRIBLE stats were achieved against some really good teams. Meanwhile, TB have played nobody...and are thought of as a solid team, without ever having won a game vs. a good team. SF have one critical injury at Linebacker, which is why this isn't a 2* game, but still, I love those points and can see SF bearing down here and making some sort of a game out of this.
1*
Baltimore: Yes, I know about the injuries, and they are the only reason this isn't a 2* game. 10 1/2 points? Thank you very much. Pitt ain't that good, and Balt ain't that bad.
Three Unders:
Dallas Under: I make the number 35. That makes 40 great value. I got 40.5 earlier in the week...meaning that the *critical* 37 and the quite significant 40 are bot winners. With totals it's ALL about key numbers. 37 is the goliath. I'm really surprised the number is this high.
KC/SD Under A perfect set-up for an under. I have a favorite situational under system which landed on this game. On top of that, I made the total 48, giving 2 points of fundemental value, and a lot more in situational value. Forget recent scores, these teams bear down and play each other hard and tight. Do everything you can to get 51...and it looks like the line will move up to that level from 50.5. 51 is a key number and is light years more attractive than 50.5. I'll still take the 50.5 if need be, but I'm holding out for now.
Buff/Ne Under My situational system lands on this game as an under...AND there is 2.5 points of fundemental value in the line. What's to think about?
That's it guys, again, thanks for all the hard work that so many of you put in on this board. It's much appreciated.
I've been lurking here for a long time, feasting on some GREAT NBA, MLB and CBB picks. I handicap none of those sports, so I *really* appreciate some of the really good handicapping skills that are exhibited here. There are too many good handicappers here for me to list, but I'd like to give a special thanks to Frank03 for his NBA work, and Chuck for his MLB work. I bought a new 911 Porsche recently, which was largely paid for from my MLB and NBA winnings. Much appreciated guys!!
My sport is NFL, and I've been handicapping it for years, and have a number of statistical methods that I don't *think* anyone else uses...at least not in exactly the same ways that I do. I've had one losing NFL season in the past 10 years, and have averaged about 56%. With the advent of Pinnacle and thier fantastic -104 pricing, 56% is a good result. And to be honest, it would take a lot of convincing for me to believe that ANYONE can consistantly do much better than 56% over a long period of time.
My picks for Sunday:
2*
WASHINGTON: Why NY is favored I don't know. Wash should take this game, and take it fairly easily. They are superior in almost every department. The public is in love with NY's "home record". A few games do not make a trend.....and believe me, NY uses the same players at home as they do on the road. NY was *lucky* to lose as close a game to Dallas as they did, they were outplayed badly and only by way of a series of flukes was the game not a blowout.
Everyone is in love with NY after beating Denver. Well Denver was RIPE to be beaten last week, it was their sceduled let-down week...and NY was the beneficiary. Even in THAT set-up situation, Denver *still* went into the 4th quarter well in the lead and it took a miracle finish by NY to win (but still not cover).
NY is vastly overvalued by the public, and thus the linemaker. Wash cruises.
2*
Chicago:
Again, there is no reason on earth that Detroit should be favored in this game. Even without the rash of *key* injuries that Detroit have suffered I'd like Chicago to win the game outright. As it stands, only multiple turnovers by Chicago could save Detroit from *another* spanking.
2*
Minnesota:
They may not win (though I did put on a little moneyline bet) but they most definitely should cover. Carolina has run up mediocre stats against mediocre competition. Minny has run up similar stats against somewhat better competition. And Minny is sky high, and desperate. In a dogfight Minny at least keeps the game close.
1*
New Orleans:
I make this line NO -9. That makes the game a steal at only -2 1/2. Both have played teams of modest means (looking at the key stats that I use).....but NO have done better. And there IS a home field advantage in this game. At Baton Rouge NO will be playing before a home crowd, and are in a classic set-up to turn it up for a nice win. Both NO and Mia are fairly bad teams. But Miami is in chaos...and don't match NO statistically. At -3 I might balk....but at anything under -3 NO is an easy pick.
*1
Tennesse:
A slightly better team.....at home...and getting a point. What more can I say? On a neutral field I'd make Tenn -1 1/2. Throw in the home field edge, and the point, and the smart money goes on Tenn.
1*
Green Bay: If this line gets to +10 (which I think it may well) I'm a GB bettor. I know everyone and thier dog are betting on Cincy...the injuries and all that. But that's in the line already. Cincy really aren't THAT good a team. They've piled up some VERY modest stats against some very modest competition...and had a lot of turnovers in their favor to boot...without which their record would be quite different. Don't get stampeded into taking Cincy here...GB will fight this to the death...and with Cincy's huge vulnerability to the run, the GB line could open lanes for almost anyone. The points look good to me.
1*
San Francisco Same as above, everyone wants TB. Well, TB are VASTLY over-rated, and the thing that is most overlooked about SF is that their TERRIBLE stats were achieved against some really good teams. Meanwhile, TB have played nobody...and are thought of as a solid team, without ever having won a game vs. a good team. SF have one critical injury at Linebacker, which is why this isn't a 2* game, but still, I love those points and can see SF bearing down here and making some sort of a game out of this.
1*
Baltimore: Yes, I know about the injuries, and they are the only reason this isn't a 2* game. 10 1/2 points? Thank you very much. Pitt ain't that good, and Balt ain't that bad.
Three Unders:
Dallas Under: I make the number 35. That makes 40 great value. I got 40.5 earlier in the week...meaning that the *critical* 37 and the quite significant 40 are bot winners. With totals it's ALL about key numbers. 37 is the goliath. I'm really surprised the number is this high.
KC/SD Under A perfect set-up for an under. I have a favorite situational under system which landed on this game. On top of that, I made the total 48, giving 2 points of fundemental value, and a lot more in situational value. Forget recent scores, these teams bear down and play each other hard and tight. Do everything you can to get 51...and it looks like the line will move up to that level from 50.5. 51 is a key number and is light years more attractive than 50.5. I'll still take the 50.5 if need be, but I'm holding out for now.
Buff/Ne Under My situational system lands on this game as an under...AND there is 2.5 points of fundemental value in the line. What's to think about?
That's it guys, again, thanks for all the hard work that so many of you put in on this board. It's much appreciated.
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