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WELL ALL GOOD THINGS HA TO COME TO AN END AND IM NOT SUPRISED THIS IS THE WEEK CONSIDERING I TOLD ALL OF YOU AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK I DIDN'T LIKE ANY GAMES AND I DIDN'T GET TO SPEND MUCH TIME CAPPING THE GAMES. WELL THANKS EVERYBODY FOR BEING UNDERSTANDING ABOUT MY BIG MOVE AND THE LACK OF ANALYSIS THIS WEEK. I'M HAPPY TO REPORT THAT I WILL BE BACK IN FULL SWING THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO STAY AROUND EVEN PAR IN THE NCAA LAST WEEKEND. I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) 18 OUT OF THE LAST 21 WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* NC STATE -6.5
1* UTEP/RICE OVER 57.5
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SOUTHERN MISS (4 - 2) at NC STATE (2 - 4)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/29/2005 12:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Both teams step out of their conferences for this game These two teams last met in the 1990 All-American Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., where the Wolfpack held off a late rally by Brett Favre and the Golden Eagles to win, 31-27. The 1990 contest was the first between the two squads in 24 years and it also marked the debut of Jeff Bower as head coach of Southern Miss. Since that time Bower has faced some long odds when he took over for Curley Hallman but 15 years later, the man who was named "Sun Belt Coach of the Decade" oversees a program that has, among other things, gone on the road and stunned the likes of Nebraska and Alabama over the years.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) began a four-game road stretch with a 37-28 victory at UAB on Friday night. Southern Miss is now 6-0 all-time against the Blazers and the win was the school's 50th all-time victory in C-USA play. The Golden Eagles are 50-15 since the league's inaugural season in 1996. Senior QB Dustin Almond was 18-of-33 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. He has eight TD passes in the last two games and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of the team's five games this season. Almond's 14 TD passes this season is already a career high. RB Larry Thomas finished with 129 yards and Caleb Hendrix had two sacks as the Golden Eagle defense posted seven sacks for the second consecutive week. Offensively Southern Miss has a balanced offense attack that is averaging 34 points, and 238 yards passing and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
For NC State, a promising season has turned sour fast at (2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS). Chuck Amato's team has been undisciplined and sloppy, off a 31-10 home loss as a favorite to Clemson and Saturday's 3-turnover, 27-19 loss to Wake Forest. QB Jay Davis had two picks in the defeat, and he has 6 TDs, 8 INTs this season. He may have lost his confidence, too, and the last time they played at home he was booed, and the crowd cheered when he was replaced by Marcus Stone in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the biggest problem has been that in their last 4 games, NC State has averaged only 56.5 net rushing yards. In those three games, the Wolfpack's average yards per rush has been only 2.0 which has no doubt had some effect on third down conversions (16-of-56). That lack of third down efficiency has contributed to State's defense being on the field an average of 7.5 minutes longer than its offense during that four game span. "We're out there playing our fannies off," said N.C. State coach Chuck Amato. However, despite a horrendous first half of the season, NC State insiders are reporting that the team is surprisingly upbeat for this non-conference match-up, which is crucial for any hope of getting into a bowl game this season. Starting linebacker Stephen Tulloch put it best during this week’s press conference, "The season isn't over yet. A lot of people are counting us out, but we have five games left. Right now we're worried about Southern Miss. We've just got to prepare for them and come out with a victory. We've just got to keep fighting and get to a bowl game; that's what we're trying to do."
An interesting but not often though of angle on this game involves the fact that Southern Miss’s two new coordinators for the Offense and Defense, who were promoted from within, have little knowledge of this new, non-conference opponent from the ACC. Indeed, the last time Southern Miss encountered a stranger, their QB Dustin Almond threw five INTs into the Tulsa secondary. Regarless of this year performance, few would argue that NC State’s defense is bigger and faster than Tulsa’s, and the Wolfpack secondary makes a habit of pouncing on any ball not totally secured. Although their records indicate otherwise, how could we not back the more talented, at home, and motivated (need to win 4 out of the next 5 to become bowl eligible) team and laying such a short price.
Forecast: Southern Miss 17, NC State 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NC STATE -6.5
UTEP (5 - 1) at RICE (0 - 6)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/29/2005 6:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Ken Hatfield's Rice team is a perfect 0-6 SU and ATS. Not the kind of perfection the coach is looking for. They've had a brutal schedule, but, unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier here against a potent, disciplined and versatile UTEP offense under coach Mike Price. Price runs a wide-open attack at UTEP (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS), averaging 32 points behind QB Jordan Palmer and RB Tyler Ebell. Palmer threw three touchdown passes for the third-consecutive game and fourth time this season and Ebell rushed 13 times for 92 yards as the Miners dominated Marshall 31-3 Saturday. The victory was UTEP's 100th in school history at The Sun Bowl. Junior QB Jordan Palmer threw a trio of touchdown passes. Junior WR John ny Lee Higgins caught a touchdown pass for the fifth-consecutive game and he has eight total TD receptions in that span. LB Jeremy Jones tallied a career-high 17 tackles and has been in on double-digit tackles in five of the Miners' six games this season. Jones leads the league with a 12.3 tpg average and is second overall with 74 total tackles. The three points allowed by the UTEP defense is the lowest in a C-USA league game this season. UTEP is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS its last 12 as a favorite under Price.
Rice (0-6 SU/ATS) has had a brutal schedule, with big losses at Texas and UCLA. After their fifth consecutive road losses to open the season, the Owls finally returned to Rice Stadium to play their first home game of the season against Navy, which was originally scheduled for Sept. 24, but postponed due to Hurricane Rita. The Midshipmen never trailed as they dealt the Owls a 41-9 setback in the contest. The Owls yielded 41 points for the third-consecutive game and were held below double digits for the first time this season. RB Quinton Smith registered his second 100-yard rushing game of the season, racking up 124 yards, just one yard short of his season high set on Oct. 8 against UAB.
If I were to take a side on this game it would have been Rice. Historically Rice has been a very profitable home dog, but all good things come to an end. The Owls, who were once a perfect 12-0 ATS in that role have since lost their last three continuing their 12 game loosing streak. Interestingly, the home team has won the last five meetings in the series, but contrast that with the fact that UTEP has covered 17 of their last 18 road wins. Motivationally, UTEP will want to remain perfect in the league as they can almost taste the Conference USA title, but report out of Houston are indicating that Rice has worked extra hard this week and believes they can win this game in front of their home fans. With these conflicting trends I’m not going to back either side in this contest.
However, a look at the total in this contest warrants a play on the over. As mentioned above, although Rice has played one of the more brutal schedules in the league, they also had some very manageable games against the likes of UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa and Navy, but they lost them all, giving up shocking numbers of 45, 41, 41 and 41 points and have been outscored by an average of 48-21 so far this season. Granted those are competitive teams but now in comes pass happy UTEP who has averaged 32.5 points per game this season which is a terrible match-up for Rice who has the worst pass defense in the nation. Moreover, the Owls are ranked dead last in total defense in yardage allowed. Simply put, they will get torched through the air. However, UTEP will not be the only team scoring this weekend, as Rice with their amazing trickery and triple option threat always give opposing defenses trouble so they should be able to run the ball against the Miners and put up some points as well. In either case, both of the best units on the field will be the offensives from each side. With that in mind, and clear sunny ski’s with temperature near 80 degrees, we have no other choice but to go over the posted total.
Forecast: UTEP 42, Rice 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTEP/RICE OVER 57.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* NC STATE -6.5
1* UTEP/RICE OVER 57.5
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SOUTHERN MISS (4 - 2) at NC STATE (2 - 4)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/29/2005 12:00 PM
vs Analysis
Both teams step out of their conferences for this game These two teams last met in the 1990 All-American Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., where the Wolfpack held off a late rally by Brett Favre and the Golden Eagles to win, 31-27. The 1990 contest was the first between the two squads in 24 years and it also marked the debut of Jeff Bower as head coach of Southern Miss. Since that time Bower has faced some long odds when he took over for Curley Hallman but 15 years later, the man who was named "Sun Belt Coach of the Decade" oversees a program that has, among other things, gone on the road and stunned the likes of Nebraska and Alabama over the years.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) began a four-game road stretch with a 37-28 victory at UAB on Friday night. Southern Miss is now 6-0 all-time against the Blazers and the win was the school's 50th all-time victory in C-USA play. The Golden Eagles are 50-15 since the league's inaugural season in 1996. Senior QB Dustin Almond was 18-of-33 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. He has eight TD passes in the last two games and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of the team's five games this season. Almond's 14 TD passes this season is already a career high. RB Larry Thomas finished with 129 yards and Caleb Hendrix had two sacks as the Golden Eagle defense posted seven sacks for the second consecutive week. Offensively Southern Miss has a balanced offense attack that is averaging 34 points, and 238 yards passing and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
For NC State, a promising season has turned sour fast at (2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS). Chuck Amato's team has been undisciplined and sloppy, off a 31-10 home loss as a favorite to Clemson and Saturday's 3-turnover, 27-19 loss to Wake Forest. QB Jay Davis had two picks in the defeat, and he has 6 TDs, 8 INTs this season. He may have lost his confidence, too, and the last time they played at home he was booed, and the crowd cheered when he was replaced by Marcus Stone in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the biggest problem has been that in their last 4 games, NC State has averaged only 56.5 net rushing yards. In those three games, the Wolfpack's average yards per rush has been only 2.0 which has no doubt had some effect on third down conversions (16-of-56). That lack of third down efficiency has contributed to State's defense being on the field an average of 7.5 minutes longer than its offense during that four game span. "We're out there playing our fannies off," said N.C. State coach Chuck Amato. However, despite a horrendous first half of the season, NC State insiders are reporting that the team is surprisingly upbeat for this non-conference match-up, which is crucial for any hope of getting into a bowl game this season. Starting linebacker Stephen Tulloch put it best during this week’s press conference, "The season isn't over yet. A lot of people are counting us out, but we have five games left. Right now we're worried about Southern Miss. We've just got to prepare for them and come out with a victory. We've just got to keep fighting and get to a bowl game; that's what we're trying to do."
An interesting but not often though of angle on this game involves the fact that Southern Miss’s two new coordinators for the Offense and Defense, who were promoted from within, have little knowledge of this new, non-conference opponent from the ACC. Indeed, the last time Southern Miss encountered a stranger, their QB Dustin Almond threw five INTs into the Tulsa secondary. Regarless of this year performance, few would argue that NC State’s defense is bigger and faster than Tulsa’s, and the Wolfpack secondary makes a habit of pouncing on any ball not totally secured. Although their records indicate otherwise, how could we not back the more talented, at home, and motivated (need to win 4 out of the next 5 to become bowl eligible) team and laying such a short price.
Forecast: Southern Miss 17, NC State 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NC STATE -6.5
UTEP (5 - 1) at RICE (0 - 6)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/29/2005 6:00 PM
vs Analysis
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Ken Hatfield's Rice team is a perfect 0-6 SU and ATS. Not the kind of perfection the coach is looking for. They've had a brutal schedule, but, unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier here against a potent, disciplined and versatile UTEP offense under coach Mike Price. Price runs a wide-open attack at UTEP (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS), averaging 32 points behind QB Jordan Palmer and RB Tyler Ebell. Palmer threw three touchdown passes for the third-consecutive game and fourth time this season and Ebell rushed 13 times for 92 yards as the Miners dominated Marshall 31-3 Saturday. The victory was UTEP's 100th in school history at The Sun Bowl. Junior QB Jordan Palmer threw a trio of touchdown passes. Junior WR John ny Lee Higgins caught a touchdown pass for the fifth-consecutive game and he has eight total TD receptions in that span. LB Jeremy Jones tallied a career-high 17 tackles and has been in on double-digit tackles in five of the Miners' six games this season. Jones leads the league with a 12.3 tpg average and is second overall with 74 total tackles. The three points allowed by the UTEP defense is the lowest in a C-USA league game this season. UTEP is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS its last 12 as a favorite under Price.
Rice (0-6 SU/ATS) has had a brutal schedule, with big losses at Texas and UCLA. After their fifth consecutive road losses to open the season, the Owls finally returned to Rice Stadium to play their first home game of the season against Navy, which was originally scheduled for Sept. 24, but postponed due to Hurricane Rita. The Midshipmen never trailed as they dealt the Owls a 41-9 setback in the contest. The Owls yielded 41 points for the third-consecutive game and were held below double digits for the first time this season. RB Quinton Smith registered his second 100-yard rushing game of the season, racking up 124 yards, just one yard short of his season high set on Oct. 8 against UAB.
If I were to take a side on this game it would have been Rice. Historically Rice has been a very profitable home dog, but all good things come to an end. The Owls, who were once a perfect 12-0 ATS in that role have since lost their last three continuing their 12 game loosing streak. Interestingly, the home team has won the last five meetings in the series, but contrast that with the fact that UTEP has covered 17 of their last 18 road wins. Motivationally, UTEP will want to remain perfect in the league as they can almost taste the Conference USA title, but report out of Houston are indicating that Rice has worked extra hard this week and believes they can win this game in front of their home fans. With these conflicting trends I’m not going to back either side in this contest.
However, a look at the total in this contest warrants a play on the over. As mentioned above, although Rice has played one of the more brutal schedules in the league, they also had some very manageable games against the likes of UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa and Navy, but they lost them all, giving up shocking numbers of 45, 41, 41 and 41 points and have been outscored by an average of 48-21 so far this season. Granted those are competitive teams but now in comes pass happy UTEP who has averaged 32.5 points per game this season which is a terrible match-up for Rice who has the worst pass defense in the nation. Moreover, the Owls are ranked dead last in total defense in yardage allowed. Simply put, they will get torched through the air. However, UTEP will not be the only team scoring this weekend, as Rice with their amazing trickery and triple option threat always give opposing defenses trouble so they should be able to run the ball against the Miners and put up some points as well. In either case, both of the best units on the field will be the offensives from each side. With that in mind, and clear sunny ski’s with temperature near 80 degrees, we have no other choice but to go over the posted total.
Forecast: UTEP 42, Rice 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UTEP/RICE OVER 57.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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