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I want to refine my Program. I use 17 different statistical categories.
I do not use Special Team categories. Based on my research, in and of itself it is not a determing factor in teams that win--unlike Total Offensive Yardage which is a HUGE determination in Winning.
Another huge determining factor is Yards Per Pass Attempt. Bud Goode is a statistical expert and claims this is the number one determining factor.
Obviously Turnovers play a role, but I believe there are as many by LUCK as by aggressiveness.
Net Points is a Big Factor.
Yards Per Rush is not necessarily a big factor, but Yards Rushing Per Game is.
So I've narrowed it down to either 15 or 17 categories, depending on whether take-a-ways and give-a-ways should each have their own category or if Net Turnovers is sufficient.
I am inclined to think Net Turnovers is sufficient since a team's Turnover Rank can go from, say, 7th in the league to 19th in the league in one or 2 games. And therefore, with that kind of volatility, perhaps it is better not to TRIPLE that influence by factoring in take-a-ways and give-a-ways along with the NET.
So here's 15 categories, and I am wondering how much weight to give to each one in fine tuning my Program. I welcome your input, and we'll build a killer program.
First, here are Four Categories that I am already convinced need to be weighted more than other categories:
1.) The Win Factor
The win factor is that something special that teams like the Patriots have. They just win even if the stats say otherwise. This must be weighted for more than other categories.
2.) Yards Per Pass Attempt
I have kept an eye on this since I first read some articles by Bud Goode, a professional capper and statistician. He's right. This is a HUGE determining factor.
3.) Net Points
This is a no-brainer. Obviously since the final score determines who wins or loses, it should count for more.
4.) Total Offensive Yardage
Seems to be more important in "getting to the playoffs". Once there, it seems to be all about defense.
Now the 2 categories that I do not think needs to be weighted...
5.) Net Turnovers
This can swing up and down through out the season based on a teams last 1 or 2 games. It's too volatile to factor in more weight.
6.) Penalties
Like turnovers, because the numbers are usually single digits (average penalties less than 8 per team per game), it is too volatile.
That leaves 9 categories I am unsure of. What do you think? What categories are worthy of more weight?
7.) Points For (redundant since NET is already weighted?)
8.) Points Against (ditto)
9.) Pass Yards (redundant since YPPA is already weighted?)
10.) Pass Yards Against (my hunch is no extra weight here)
11.) Rush Yards Per Game (maybe?)
12.) Rush Yards Against (no)
13.) Total Yards Against (no)
14.) Net Yardage (probably)
15.) Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed (?)
Feedback welcome.
dave
I do not use Special Team categories. Based on my research, in and of itself it is not a determing factor in teams that win--unlike Total Offensive Yardage which is a HUGE determination in Winning.
Another huge determining factor is Yards Per Pass Attempt. Bud Goode is a statistical expert and claims this is the number one determining factor.
Obviously Turnovers play a role, but I believe there are as many by LUCK as by aggressiveness.
Net Points is a Big Factor.
Yards Per Rush is not necessarily a big factor, but Yards Rushing Per Game is.
So I've narrowed it down to either 15 or 17 categories, depending on whether take-a-ways and give-a-ways should each have their own category or if Net Turnovers is sufficient.
I am inclined to think Net Turnovers is sufficient since a team's Turnover Rank can go from, say, 7th in the league to 19th in the league in one or 2 games. And therefore, with that kind of volatility, perhaps it is better not to TRIPLE that influence by factoring in take-a-ways and give-a-ways along with the NET.
So here's 15 categories, and I am wondering how much weight to give to each one in fine tuning my Program. I welcome your input, and we'll build a killer program.
First, here are Four Categories that I am already convinced need to be weighted more than other categories:
1.) The Win Factor
The win factor is that something special that teams like the Patriots have. They just win even if the stats say otherwise. This must be weighted for more than other categories.
2.) Yards Per Pass Attempt
I have kept an eye on this since I first read some articles by Bud Goode, a professional capper and statistician. He's right. This is a HUGE determining factor.
3.) Net Points
This is a no-brainer. Obviously since the final score determines who wins or loses, it should count for more.
4.) Total Offensive Yardage
Seems to be more important in "getting to the playoffs". Once there, it seems to be all about defense.
Now the 2 categories that I do not think needs to be weighted...
5.) Net Turnovers
This can swing up and down through out the season based on a teams last 1 or 2 games. It's too volatile to factor in more weight.
6.) Penalties
Like turnovers, because the numbers are usually single digits (average penalties less than 8 per team per game), it is too volatile.
That leaves 9 categories I am unsure of. What do you think? What categories are worthy of more weight?
7.) Points For (redundant since NET is already weighted?)
8.) Points Against (ditto)
9.) Pass Yards (redundant since YPPA is already weighted?)
10.) Pass Yards Against (my hunch is no extra weight here)
11.) Rush Yards Per Game (maybe?)
12.) Rush Yards Against (no)
13.) Total Yards Against (no)
14.) Net Yardage (probably)
15.) Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed (?)
Feedback welcome.
dave
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