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Here are some statistical observations from my Excel Program I wrote. It is not intended to be EXCLUSIVELY used for predicting, but serves as a guide to give insight into the matchups. For example, the line on the 49ers-Redskins game looks high because of the false notion that, while defensively strong, the Redskins are one of the worst offenses. The opposite is true. The Redskins are #9 in Pass Offense, #6 in Rush Offense, and #3 in Total Offense, and #2 in Net Yardage. In fact, they are the only team in the NFL to have a Top Five Offense and Top Five Defense. That's an example of the purpose of the Excel Program, to point out misconceptions and realities.
The Program is based on 17 key statistical categories which take into conderation Strength of Schedule. Points For, Points Against, Pass Yards, Pass Yards Allowed, Rush Yards, Rush Yards Allowed, Total Yards, Total Yards Allowed, Take-a-Ways, Give-a-Ways, Net Points, Net Yards, Net Turnovers, Penalties, Win Factor (weighted for most recent performance), and finally, the perhaps the most telling of all, Yards Per Pass Attempt and Yards Per Pass Attempt Against. Of the 17 Categories, five of them are given double weight: Net Points, Net Yards, Net Turnovers, Win Factor, and Yards Per Pass Attempt (offensively). With these I develop a Power Rating which in turn also gives each team a Rank.
The following are this week's games. Over the long haul I would not expect much more than 50/50 when considering every game and every total. But as mentioned before, the numbers can be used as a guide to point out good value, false faves, misconceptions and realities which hopefully will aid in making wiser decisions in the comprehensive effort of handicapping the games. Last Sunday Night was a great example. The Seahawks were better in all 17 categories--a rarity--and it showed on the scoreboard as they whitewashed the Texans 42-10.
Here's the map: The first two lines are the teams and the current consensus line (per Bigguy.com). The number beside each team is their NFL Rank (1-32) according to the Excel Program. The third line is how many categories each team is better at. For example, of the 17 categories, the Rams are ranked higher in 9, the Saints are ranked higher in 6, and they are tied in 2 categories. That gives the Rams a 9-6-2 edge. And edge of better than two out of three should get your attention. By that standard if a team is better in at least 12 categories, take note.
The 4th line is the line according to the Excel Program. If a team's power rating is, say, 5.19 points higher, then they are considered a 5-pt fave on a neutral field. Home Field Advantage is then factored in at the rate of 3.0 points, making them an 8-pt fave if they are at home, or a 2-pt fave if they are on the road. Using this example, the point at which the raw line is moved to -5.5 is if it is 5.25. So, from 5.00 to 5.24, it is rounded down. From 5.25 to 5.74, it falls on the hook (-5.5). If it is 5.75-5.99, it is rounded up to 6.0.
Below that line is the DIF, which is short for "difference". Simply put, it is the difference between the Vegas Spread and the Excel Program line. Last week the biggest DIF was the Redskins +6 to win by 5, an 11-pt DIF. Occasionally their will be a large DIF like this. The Redskins held the Chief's rushing attack to just 96 yards, ran up nearly 400 yards in total offense, and outyarded the Chiefs by 124 yards. Unfortunately they could not overcome a 3-0 disadvantage in turnovers and failed to cover by 1 point. But as you can see, it was the right side (if you will). That is the purpose of the Excel Program, to point out crazy lines like last weeks' Redskins-CHIEFS line. This game is also a good example of why you cannot use the Excel exclusively...
After a 2-0 start, KC had lost two straight. So they were at home off two straight losses and a bye week. This is why the Chiefs were a wise guy play last week and a lot of strong cappers were all over the Chiefs last week. Prior to my writing the Excel Program, man, I woulda' been all over this pick. BUT...the program warned me off of it since the wrong team was favored. Remember that the Skins were favored by 5 according to excel AFTER factoring in the Home Field, which means the Program had them 8 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. That may sound crazy, but numbers don't lie. Granted it did not pan out, but that's why capping is comprehensive. The Chiefs at home off two losses was a beautiful play, but the line was off; and be it for those turnovers, Skins win the game SU as they should. Even after last week's head to head loss to the Chiefs, the Excel Program still has Washingon rated as the better team. Regarding the Houston-Seattle Sunday night mismatch I mentioned earlier, in addition to the 17-0 edge for the Seahawks, the DIF was 8.0 as the program projected a 17-pt line over and against the Vegas line of -9.0. All the other games last week had DIFS within a FG or less of each other.
And finally, the bottom line simply say OVER or UNDER. This simple suggests whether or not the game is prone to be lower scoring or higher scoring. If two teams are opposites like, say, the Ravens (prone to go under) and the Giants (over), then the more dominant wins out. This simply means that their are UNDER teams like Miami or Detroit, but they are not on the same level as Baltimore and Buffalo. I have programmed the Excel to spit out numbers in this regard. It takes into account the obvious: Yardage, Points, and my favorite, Yards Per Pass Attempt (offensively and defensively).
There is brief commentary after each game...
#28 Saints
#29 RAMS (-3.0, 47.5)
9-6-2 edge to RAMS
RAMS by 3.0
DIF 0.0
OVER
I was eager to be on the Rams this week because they are at home after 4> consecutive games of being minus in Turnovers. And because they have played 3 straight games in which they gave up a ton of points. This is a beautiful spot to be on the Rams...if you muster up enough faith to back Jamie Martin against NFL's #4 ranked New Orleans Pass D. Bulger is OUT. I am inclined to be wary of the OVER also. It's time BOTH of these defenses showed up, which could keep the game UNDER. However, I thought the same thing last year when the Saints and Raiders played. The defenses came out aggressive, but in the second half the game became wide open and the defenses crumbled. The verdict is still out here. I think the Rams cover and get back on the wining track, but I gotta' talk myself into backing Jamie Martin after he killed me Monday Night. Rams should cover with McCallister out. Saints dead last in net turnovers.
#18 PACKERS (-1.5, 44.0)
#30 VIKINGS
13-4-0 edge to PACKERS
PACKERS by 3.5
DIF 2.0
UNDER
Vikings are at home off two big losses and Packers are off a huge 52-3 win and a bye. Really nice spot for Vikes technically. But there's a pretty sizable gap here with the Packers outstatting them 13-4-0 at the cheap price of less than a FG. Statistically the play is Green Bay. Technically the Play is Minnesota. Prefer to find games where both sides agree. It will probably depend on how well the Vikes handle the off the field problems. Game too volatile for me.
#1 COLTS (-15.0, 45.0)
#32 TEXANS
17-0-0 edge to COLTS
COLTS by 18.5
DIF 3.5
UNDER
Speaking of a game where the stats and techs fundamentally disagree, this is the epitomy of such a game, the mother them. This is a HUGE technical play on the Texans. But the disparity here resembles more that of a College game, which means you can throw out the technical stuff. Houston ranks in the Bottom Five in 13 out of 17 categories. I just do not see how the Texans can keep this game within 20 points. But no way can I lay the points here. If Houston were not in such a strong technical position, this would be an easy choice. Over/Under 45? Program recommends UNDER. But the Colts might score that many alone. PASS on both counts.
#6 STEELERS
#2 BENGALS (-1.0, 43.0)
12-5-0 edge to BENGALS
BENGALS by 5.5
DIF 4.5
OVER
Bengals are the #2 team in the NFL statistically and have the win/loss record to back it up. But this is a virtual must win for the Steelers who will have Rallyburger back at the helm. Hard to go against him. Line is off in my opinion. Although in all fairness it did open at -3.0. Steelers could expoit #25 ranked Cincy Rush D and Bengals have been penalty prone. Cincy has amassed their #4 rank in Points For and Points Against based on Turnovers (#1 in net t.o.'s), although they are moving the ball over 400 ypg. Palmer is #2 in Yards Per Pass Attempt, a telling factor for winners. Tough call. Probably a good place for a tease. If Cincy pulls it out, and it could happen, probably won't be by more than 3-4 points.
#8 CHARGERS
#11 EAGLES (-3.5, 47.0)
9-8-0 edge to CHARGERS
EAGLES by 1.5
DIF 2.0
OVER
Philly comes home off a bye and off a 31-10 thrashing by the Cowboys of all teams. Man, Reid might be pissed. Most notable the Eagles were outyarded by over 300 yards in that game, a reason in and of itself to look in their direction. Philly is invincible off a loss, and they have the talent and heart to bounce back strong under Reid's guidance. The fact that they are playing a solid contender makes the play even better. They are that kind of team. Competitive. If they bounced back against a nobody, who cares. But they will use this game to send a message to critics who have been predicting their demise for 3 seasons. Is this the beginning of the end for them finally? Not likely. Philly is ranked dead last in Run Offense and going against the league's #3 Rush D, which means they will take to the air with their #1 ranked Pass O against San Diego's #27 ranked Pass D. Chargers are ranked #1 in Points Scored, but after the Eagles allowing 30+ in each of their last two games, look for their D to show up. EAGLES -3.5.
#16 CHIEFS
#22 DOLPHINS (-2.0, 41.0)
10-7-0 edge to CHIEFS
DOLPHINS by 1.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Dolphins are #12 in Net Yardage while Chiefs are #25, but Miami is killing themselves with penalties and turnovers; perhaps a reflection of a lack of resolution to the Ricky Williams thing. If Saban can get his team focussed and disciplined, I see no reason why the Dolphins cannot bounce back at home off two losses.
#23 LIONS
#24 BROWNS (-2.5, 34.5)
10-7-0 edge to LIONS
BROWNS by 3.0
DIF 0.5
UNDER
Thinking here is that the Browns come right back after a loss last week while the Lions are still smarting after blowing it last week late in the game. Heck, they almost won two in a row. I think Browns bring on the pressure and Lions fold after huge win two weeks ago followed by last week's emotional drain. Lions #28 in Yards Per Pass, the most telling stat of winning and have relied on take-a-ways (#3) like they did last year. Lean to Browns for the afforementioned reasons, but a Lions are off 3 straight games being outyarded by 100> yards in each one--usually a pretty reliable PLAY ON. Tough Call.
#31 49ERS
#10 REDSKINS (-12.5, 36.5)
14-3-0 edge to REDSKINS
REDSKINS by 17.0
DIF 4.5
UNDER
This is a little tougher to call than appears. Because San Fran is off a 25-pt loss and 17-pt loss, it's tempting to bet that they'll keep it within double-digits. But the Redskins are off 2 straight losses and playing a severely overmatched team statistically. Redskins are WAY overdue for the scoreboard to reflect just how good they really are. This could be the spot. Alex Smith was bad enough when he had the security of Rattay on the Sideline. With Rattay gone, I'm not sure he can handle the pressure of being a starter. His confidence is shot, and now he faces a Washington Defense that ranks in the Top 7 in all five defensive categories: Pts allowed, Pass D, Rush D, Yards Allowed, and Yards per pass attempt allowed. Skins are #2 in net yardage, second only to Seattle, and be it for turnovers they would be undefeated. Speaking of turnovers, they come home having been minus in the turnover department in each of their five games this season. That should change Sunday. Four of their five games have been decided by 3 or less points, the other one being decided by 7. I think the disparity between these two teams is too much for the 49ers to overcome, much less with a rookie QB on the road, and I look for the Redskins to muster their first double digit win and cover.
#4 COWBOYS
#3 SEAHAWKS (-3.0, 45.5)
9-8-0 edge to COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS by 4.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Dallas and Seattle combine for an average of about 830 yards in total offense per game. And often when you have two potential SB contenders playing it is the offenses that get the attention in the matchup of the week. But I have notice over the years that while the offenses get the attention, it is the defenses that tend to show up when they face off. This is the game of the week, and I suspect history will hold true and defense will reign in this game. I lean to the under, and even more I like UNDER 24.5 points scored by Seattle.
#17 BILLS
#26 RAIDERS (-3.0, 40.5)
10-7-0 edge to BILLS
BILLS by 1.0
DIF 4.0
UNDER
This is the tale of the tape for the Bills. We're gonna see what they are made of. In my opinion they are a legitimate SB contender with Holcomb at the helm. This week they are the better team whether or not Moss starts for the Raiders. The Bills find themselves in a sandwich game between two back-to-back division wins and the Patriots on deck. In addition, they are playing on the West Coast against a Raiders team at home off a loss and in bad need of a win. This is a real good technical spot for the Raiders. But this line is goofy, and secondly, we don't know just how good this team is with Holcomb. Be careful. There might be some wise guy money on Oakland this week, but I would warn off not only due to the bad line, but, again, Buffalo could be waaay under the radar now that Holcomb is starting. If Buffalo wins this game, they are for real; or even if they keep it close. But if Oakland handles them as the techs suggests could happen, I question whether or not the Bills are ready to be a contender. Bills are #1 in Pass Defense and #4 in net turnovers. They are aggressive defensively, have good special teams, a running game, a damn good coach, and seasoned and capable QB, and are gaining momentum. I would lable this my PASS game of the week. The techs are too strong in favor of Oakland to play the Bills, and I wouldn't play Oakland for all the reasons I already mentioned.
#19 RAVENS
#15 BEARS (-1.0, 30.5)
9-8-0 edge to RAVENS
BEARS by 5.0
DIF 4.0
UNDER
I'm gonna pull a SWAMI (espn) on this one...FINAL: 3-2 (don't ask me who wins)
#27 TITANS
#21 CARDS (-3.0, 45.5)
11-6-0 edge to CARDS
CARDS by 6.0
DIF 3.0
OVER
I lean to Arizona here, but we'll see how McCown responds off two huge outings. Will he continue to shine, or will he letdown after his big outings? Remember, he's only 1 year removed from last season's disaster. Better games on the board.
#9 BRONCOS
#13 GIANTS (-2.0, 47.0)
10-7 edge to BRONCOS
GIANTS by 1.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Broncos are the better team, but Coughlin has a team this year and has a way of getting his team up off a loss. Home teams often do well after low-scoring loss. Lean to Giants for those reasons, but not crazy about going against improving Broncos who could be going on a run. They're good enough right now to win a SB. Plus Giants #29 in net yardage while winning based partly on #2 rank in net turnovers. Tough Call. Lean to the OVER.
#25 JETS
#14 FALCONS (-7.0, 40.5)
9-8-0 edge to FALCONS
FALCONS by 8.0
DIF 1.0
UNDER
Jets have a lot of problems. Testaverde needs to retire. It does not appear to me that he is playing for a Championship, but rather a paycheck and only to stay healthy. Falcons have played two straight games playing under their Season Average in Net Yardage including being outyarded by nearly 200 yards last week against New Orleans. They could bounce back against troubled Jets. But Jets have a respectable Pass D and are disciplined (#4 in least penalties). They are off a double digit loss and could keep it close with Edward inspiration. They are capable of winning. I like the UNDER in this game. The Jets are an Under-oriented team according to the Excel Program and the Falcons should play tougher defense after allowing over 30 in each of their last 2 games. Birds may have to rely on ground game, chewing the clock. UNDER.
RECAP:
RAMS
EAGLES
REDSKINS
SEA UNDER 24.5
gl,
dave
The Program is based on 17 key statistical categories which take into conderation Strength of Schedule. Points For, Points Against, Pass Yards, Pass Yards Allowed, Rush Yards, Rush Yards Allowed, Total Yards, Total Yards Allowed, Take-a-Ways, Give-a-Ways, Net Points, Net Yards, Net Turnovers, Penalties, Win Factor (weighted for most recent performance), and finally, the perhaps the most telling of all, Yards Per Pass Attempt and Yards Per Pass Attempt Against. Of the 17 Categories, five of them are given double weight: Net Points, Net Yards, Net Turnovers, Win Factor, and Yards Per Pass Attempt (offensively). With these I develop a Power Rating which in turn also gives each team a Rank.
The following are this week's games. Over the long haul I would not expect much more than 50/50 when considering every game and every total. But as mentioned before, the numbers can be used as a guide to point out good value, false faves, misconceptions and realities which hopefully will aid in making wiser decisions in the comprehensive effort of handicapping the games. Last Sunday Night was a great example. The Seahawks were better in all 17 categories--a rarity--and it showed on the scoreboard as they whitewashed the Texans 42-10.
Here's the map: The first two lines are the teams and the current consensus line (per Bigguy.com). The number beside each team is their NFL Rank (1-32) according to the Excel Program. The third line is how many categories each team is better at. For example, of the 17 categories, the Rams are ranked higher in 9, the Saints are ranked higher in 6, and they are tied in 2 categories. That gives the Rams a 9-6-2 edge. And edge of better than two out of three should get your attention. By that standard if a team is better in at least 12 categories, take note.
The 4th line is the line according to the Excel Program. If a team's power rating is, say, 5.19 points higher, then they are considered a 5-pt fave on a neutral field. Home Field Advantage is then factored in at the rate of 3.0 points, making them an 8-pt fave if they are at home, or a 2-pt fave if they are on the road. Using this example, the point at which the raw line is moved to -5.5 is if it is 5.25. So, from 5.00 to 5.24, it is rounded down. From 5.25 to 5.74, it falls on the hook (-5.5). If it is 5.75-5.99, it is rounded up to 6.0.
Below that line is the DIF, which is short for "difference". Simply put, it is the difference between the Vegas Spread and the Excel Program line. Last week the biggest DIF was the Redskins +6 to win by 5, an 11-pt DIF. Occasionally their will be a large DIF like this. The Redskins held the Chief's rushing attack to just 96 yards, ran up nearly 400 yards in total offense, and outyarded the Chiefs by 124 yards. Unfortunately they could not overcome a 3-0 disadvantage in turnovers and failed to cover by 1 point. But as you can see, it was the right side (if you will). That is the purpose of the Excel Program, to point out crazy lines like last weeks' Redskins-CHIEFS line. This game is also a good example of why you cannot use the Excel exclusively...
After a 2-0 start, KC had lost two straight. So they were at home off two straight losses and a bye week. This is why the Chiefs were a wise guy play last week and a lot of strong cappers were all over the Chiefs last week. Prior to my writing the Excel Program, man, I woulda' been all over this pick. BUT...the program warned me off of it since the wrong team was favored. Remember that the Skins were favored by 5 according to excel AFTER factoring in the Home Field, which means the Program had them 8 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. That may sound crazy, but numbers don't lie. Granted it did not pan out, but that's why capping is comprehensive. The Chiefs at home off two losses was a beautiful play, but the line was off; and be it for those turnovers, Skins win the game SU as they should. Even after last week's head to head loss to the Chiefs, the Excel Program still has Washingon rated as the better team. Regarding the Houston-Seattle Sunday night mismatch I mentioned earlier, in addition to the 17-0 edge for the Seahawks, the DIF was 8.0 as the program projected a 17-pt line over and against the Vegas line of -9.0. All the other games last week had DIFS within a FG or less of each other.
And finally, the bottom line simply say OVER or UNDER. This simple suggests whether or not the game is prone to be lower scoring or higher scoring. If two teams are opposites like, say, the Ravens (prone to go under) and the Giants (over), then the more dominant wins out. This simply means that their are UNDER teams like Miami or Detroit, but they are not on the same level as Baltimore and Buffalo. I have programmed the Excel to spit out numbers in this regard. It takes into account the obvious: Yardage, Points, and my favorite, Yards Per Pass Attempt (offensively and defensively).
There is brief commentary after each game...
#28 Saints
#29 RAMS (-3.0, 47.5)
9-6-2 edge to RAMS
RAMS by 3.0
DIF 0.0
OVER
I was eager to be on the Rams this week because they are at home after 4> consecutive games of being minus in Turnovers. And because they have played 3 straight games in which they gave up a ton of points. This is a beautiful spot to be on the Rams...if you muster up enough faith to back Jamie Martin against NFL's #4 ranked New Orleans Pass D. Bulger is OUT. I am inclined to be wary of the OVER also. It's time BOTH of these defenses showed up, which could keep the game UNDER. However, I thought the same thing last year when the Saints and Raiders played. The defenses came out aggressive, but in the second half the game became wide open and the defenses crumbled. The verdict is still out here. I think the Rams cover and get back on the wining track, but I gotta' talk myself into backing Jamie Martin after he killed me Monday Night. Rams should cover with McCallister out. Saints dead last in net turnovers.
#18 PACKERS (-1.5, 44.0)
#30 VIKINGS
13-4-0 edge to PACKERS
PACKERS by 3.5
DIF 2.0
UNDER
Vikings are at home off two big losses and Packers are off a huge 52-3 win and a bye. Really nice spot for Vikes technically. But there's a pretty sizable gap here with the Packers outstatting them 13-4-0 at the cheap price of less than a FG. Statistically the play is Green Bay. Technically the Play is Minnesota. Prefer to find games where both sides agree. It will probably depend on how well the Vikes handle the off the field problems. Game too volatile for me.
#1 COLTS (-15.0, 45.0)
#32 TEXANS
17-0-0 edge to COLTS
COLTS by 18.5
DIF 3.5
UNDER
Speaking of a game where the stats and techs fundamentally disagree, this is the epitomy of such a game, the mother them. This is a HUGE technical play on the Texans. But the disparity here resembles more that of a College game, which means you can throw out the technical stuff. Houston ranks in the Bottom Five in 13 out of 17 categories. I just do not see how the Texans can keep this game within 20 points. But no way can I lay the points here. If Houston were not in such a strong technical position, this would be an easy choice. Over/Under 45? Program recommends UNDER. But the Colts might score that many alone. PASS on both counts.
#6 STEELERS
#2 BENGALS (-1.0, 43.0)
12-5-0 edge to BENGALS
BENGALS by 5.5
DIF 4.5
OVER
Bengals are the #2 team in the NFL statistically and have the win/loss record to back it up. But this is a virtual must win for the Steelers who will have Rallyburger back at the helm. Hard to go against him. Line is off in my opinion. Although in all fairness it did open at -3.0. Steelers could expoit #25 ranked Cincy Rush D and Bengals have been penalty prone. Cincy has amassed their #4 rank in Points For and Points Against based on Turnovers (#1 in net t.o.'s), although they are moving the ball over 400 ypg. Palmer is #2 in Yards Per Pass Attempt, a telling factor for winners. Tough call. Probably a good place for a tease. If Cincy pulls it out, and it could happen, probably won't be by more than 3-4 points.
#8 CHARGERS
#11 EAGLES (-3.5, 47.0)
9-8-0 edge to CHARGERS
EAGLES by 1.5
DIF 2.0
OVER
Philly comes home off a bye and off a 31-10 thrashing by the Cowboys of all teams. Man, Reid might be pissed. Most notable the Eagles were outyarded by over 300 yards in that game, a reason in and of itself to look in their direction. Philly is invincible off a loss, and they have the talent and heart to bounce back strong under Reid's guidance. The fact that they are playing a solid contender makes the play even better. They are that kind of team. Competitive. If they bounced back against a nobody, who cares. But they will use this game to send a message to critics who have been predicting their demise for 3 seasons. Is this the beginning of the end for them finally? Not likely. Philly is ranked dead last in Run Offense and going against the league's #3 Rush D, which means they will take to the air with their #1 ranked Pass O against San Diego's #27 ranked Pass D. Chargers are ranked #1 in Points Scored, but after the Eagles allowing 30+ in each of their last two games, look for their D to show up. EAGLES -3.5.
#16 CHIEFS
#22 DOLPHINS (-2.0, 41.0)
10-7-0 edge to CHIEFS
DOLPHINS by 1.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Dolphins are #12 in Net Yardage while Chiefs are #25, but Miami is killing themselves with penalties and turnovers; perhaps a reflection of a lack of resolution to the Ricky Williams thing. If Saban can get his team focussed and disciplined, I see no reason why the Dolphins cannot bounce back at home off two losses.
#23 LIONS
#24 BROWNS (-2.5, 34.5)
10-7-0 edge to LIONS
BROWNS by 3.0
DIF 0.5
UNDER
Thinking here is that the Browns come right back after a loss last week while the Lions are still smarting after blowing it last week late in the game. Heck, they almost won two in a row. I think Browns bring on the pressure and Lions fold after huge win two weeks ago followed by last week's emotional drain. Lions #28 in Yards Per Pass, the most telling stat of winning and have relied on take-a-ways (#3) like they did last year. Lean to Browns for the afforementioned reasons, but a Lions are off 3 straight games being outyarded by 100> yards in each one--usually a pretty reliable PLAY ON. Tough Call.
#31 49ERS
#10 REDSKINS (-12.5, 36.5)
14-3-0 edge to REDSKINS
REDSKINS by 17.0
DIF 4.5
UNDER
This is a little tougher to call than appears. Because San Fran is off a 25-pt loss and 17-pt loss, it's tempting to bet that they'll keep it within double-digits. But the Redskins are off 2 straight losses and playing a severely overmatched team statistically. Redskins are WAY overdue for the scoreboard to reflect just how good they really are. This could be the spot. Alex Smith was bad enough when he had the security of Rattay on the Sideline. With Rattay gone, I'm not sure he can handle the pressure of being a starter. His confidence is shot, and now he faces a Washington Defense that ranks in the Top 7 in all five defensive categories: Pts allowed, Pass D, Rush D, Yards Allowed, and Yards per pass attempt allowed. Skins are #2 in net yardage, second only to Seattle, and be it for turnovers they would be undefeated. Speaking of turnovers, they come home having been minus in the turnover department in each of their five games this season. That should change Sunday. Four of their five games have been decided by 3 or less points, the other one being decided by 7. I think the disparity between these two teams is too much for the 49ers to overcome, much less with a rookie QB on the road, and I look for the Redskins to muster their first double digit win and cover.
#4 COWBOYS
#3 SEAHAWKS (-3.0, 45.5)
9-8-0 edge to COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS by 4.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Dallas and Seattle combine for an average of about 830 yards in total offense per game. And often when you have two potential SB contenders playing it is the offenses that get the attention in the matchup of the week. But I have notice over the years that while the offenses get the attention, it is the defenses that tend to show up when they face off. This is the game of the week, and I suspect history will hold true and defense will reign in this game. I lean to the under, and even more I like UNDER 24.5 points scored by Seattle.
#17 BILLS
#26 RAIDERS (-3.0, 40.5)
10-7-0 edge to BILLS
BILLS by 1.0
DIF 4.0
UNDER
This is the tale of the tape for the Bills. We're gonna see what they are made of. In my opinion they are a legitimate SB contender with Holcomb at the helm. This week they are the better team whether or not Moss starts for the Raiders. The Bills find themselves in a sandwich game between two back-to-back division wins and the Patriots on deck. In addition, they are playing on the West Coast against a Raiders team at home off a loss and in bad need of a win. This is a real good technical spot for the Raiders. But this line is goofy, and secondly, we don't know just how good this team is with Holcomb. Be careful. There might be some wise guy money on Oakland this week, but I would warn off not only due to the bad line, but, again, Buffalo could be waaay under the radar now that Holcomb is starting. If Buffalo wins this game, they are for real; or even if they keep it close. But if Oakland handles them as the techs suggests could happen, I question whether or not the Bills are ready to be a contender. Bills are #1 in Pass Defense and #4 in net turnovers. They are aggressive defensively, have good special teams, a running game, a damn good coach, and seasoned and capable QB, and are gaining momentum. I would lable this my PASS game of the week. The techs are too strong in favor of Oakland to play the Bills, and I wouldn't play Oakland for all the reasons I already mentioned.
#19 RAVENS
#15 BEARS (-1.0, 30.5)
9-8-0 edge to RAVENS
BEARS by 5.0
DIF 4.0
UNDER
I'm gonna pull a SWAMI (espn) on this one...FINAL: 3-2 (don't ask me who wins)
#27 TITANS
#21 CARDS (-3.0, 45.5)
11-6-0 edge to CARDS
CARDS by 6.0
DIF 3.0
OVER
I lean to Arizona here, but we'll see how McCown responds off two huge outings. Will he continue to shine, or will he letdown after his big outings? Remember, he's only 1 year removed from last season's disaster. Better games on the board.
#9 BRONCOS
#13 GIANTS (-2.0, 47.0)
10-7 edge to BRONCOS
GIANTS by 1.0
DIF 1.0
OVER
Broncos are the better team, but Coughlin has a team this year and has a way of getting his team up off a loss. Home teams often do well after low-scoring loss. Lean to Giants for those reasons, but not crazy about going against improving Broncos who could be going on a run. They're good enough right now to win a SB. Plus Giants #29 in net yardage while winning based partly on #2 rank in net turnovers. Tough Call. Lean to the OVER.
#25 JETS
#14 FALCONS (-7.0, 40.5)
9-8-0 edge to FALCONS
FALCONS by 8.0
DIF 1.0
UNDER
Jets have a lot of problems. Testaverde needs to retire. It does not appear to me that he is playing for a Championship, but rather a paycheck and only to stay healthy. Falcons have played two straight games playing under their Season Average in Net Yardage including being outyarded by nearly 200 yards last week against New Orleans. They could bounce back against troubled Jets. But Jets have a respectable Pass D and are disciplined (#4 in least penalties). They are off a double digit loss and could keep it close with Edward inspiration. They are capable of winning. I like the UNDER in this game. The Jets are an Under-oriented team according to the Excel Program and the Falcons should play tougher defense after allowing over 30 in each of their last 2 games. Birds may have to rely on ground game, chewing the clock. UNDER.
RECAP:
RAMS
EAGLES
REDSKINS
SEA UNDER 24.5
gl,
dave
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