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CONTINUE TO STAY AROUND EVEN PAR IN THE NCAA BUT HAD A SMALL PROFIT LAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 3 OUT OF THE 4 TOP PLAYS DID CASH AND IT WAS THE 1* PLAYS THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE. GOT HOSED WITH MICHIGAN AND WASHINGTONS CARELESS TURNEOVERS COST US THE ATS WIN.WITH THIS CONTINUED DOMINATION, I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) 18 OUT OF THE LAST 20 WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM
1* ARMY +9
1* UNLV +12
Opinions: TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5
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VIRGINIA (4 - 2) at N CAROLINA (2 - 3)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 12:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Virginia (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) has a fine program under coach Al Grohe, and that was evident Saturday in a thrilling 26-21 victory over No. 4 Florida State. Virginia gave up a ton of yards to FSU, but they have a strong offense of their own behind junior QB Marques Hagans, who was 27-of-36 for 306 yards, 2 TDs, no picks against the Seminoles. I've never seen a quarterback make as many one-man plays as he made tonight," Bobby Bowden said of Hagans. But taken as a whole, their offense has been inconsistent as Hagans seems to turn in a solid performance every other week, so could he be due for a letdown this week. Virginia's defense has been weak the last three weeks, in a 45-33 loss at Maryland, giving up 570 yards! Then they lost 28-17 to BC, allowing 497 yards, including 196 rushing and FSU even had 472 yards. Meanwhile, North Carolina (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare....and they needed it, after a 69-14 loss at Louisville. This is a young, rebuilding UNC bunch, led by senior QB Matt Baker, and Baker had 6 TDs and 8 INTs. UNC is allowing 30 points and 253 passing yards each game, so Virginia should be able to score plenty -- though beware of a letdown spot for the high-flying Cavaliers. North Carolina is also 9-4 "over" the total its last 13 games, while Virginia is 2-0 "over" the total on the road this season.
For this big-margin revenge game, UNC will have had an extra week to prepare, plus the advantage of having been home and taking more notes while watching Virginia’s nationally televised, late-night Saturday effort against Florida State. Virginia smoked UNC 56-24 a year ago. The 592 yards Virginia piled up during the 56-24 victory was the most ever in the history of this series and Virginia has dominated the Tar Heels lately, taking four of the last five. North Carolina is coming off a bye and it had plenty to work on after a 69-14 loss at Louisville two weeks ago but lets be honest, Louisville can score 69 against anyone on a given day and they would probably score 70 against Virginia’s poor defense.
The Louisville game notwithstanding, North Carolina is playing better football than Virginia. Granted just last week Virginia played its best game of the year but I'm still having flashbacks about how Boston College pushed the Cavaliers all over the field two weeks ago. Carolina hasn’t covered in seven tries against UVA, but the Heels are 9-1 ATS in their last ten ACC games and appear poised to stop that seven-game pointspread losing streak. Moreover, NC Coach John Bunting generally prepares his team well after a bye week. After decisive road losses against Texas in 2001 and Utah in 2004, the Tar Heels returned home to capture two of the biggest victories in the history of the program, against Florida State and Miami (FL), respectively.
Projected Score: Virginia 24, No Carolina 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM
ARMY (0 - 6) at AKRON (3 - 3)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 6:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
WOW yet again Bobby Ross isn't getting a lot of respect with this betting line. Winless Army (eleven straight losses) is still struggling after last weeks 38-17 loss to TCU. The Frogs couldn't seem to shake Army (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS), which responded with a 66-yard march late in the game, highlighted by a 37-yard completion from QB Zac Dahman to Jeremy Trimble on fourth-and-4. That set up RB Carlton Jones' 3-yard touchdown run, cutting the TCU lead to seven with 8:10 left. Army is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS on the road where the Cadets are getting beat by a 41-12 average. Akron (3-3 SU/ATS) fell 51-23 to Miami of Ohio Saturday. Akron turned over the ball six times four on fumbles and two on interceptions and the Zips were penalized 10 times for 108 yards. QB Luke Getsy was 19-of-35 for 169 yards. The Cadets are being outscored 32-13 and the stagnant offense is taking time to develop.
This is really a tricky spot for the now overvalued home Zips, as they have a much-anticipated showdown against Bowling Green on deck. Akron knows exactly what his task is here – get the win, keep everyone healthy, and then move on, with that huge home showdown next week. That by itself helps to keep this one close, since both teams lack big play ability on offense and will be content to work the clock with their power ground game. We are also getting some significant line value due to Army’s loss at T.C.U. on Saturday night, which as stated above was misleading since they only trailed 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter. Look for Carlton Jones and Scott Wesley to find plenty of room on the ground vs. this defense, which creates a chance to control the football and the game flow. This is a very generous number so take the points.
Projected Score: Akron 21, Army 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARMY +9
UTAH (3 - 4) at UNLV (2 - 5)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Rebels played their game for a half at Air Force last week. They were within 7 at the intermission, but couldn't stay away from costly mistakes over the final two quarters. UNLV (2-5 SU/ATS) has only one way to win games right now. Play close to the vest on offense and let the defense stuff the opponent. QB Jarrod Jackson does not understand this spread-option offense and is struggling to say the least. So, HC Mike Sanford has simplified the attack, turning it basically into a "3-yards and a cloud of dust" approach. However, UNLV's defense is still holding opponents to an amazing 2.9 yards per carry! Rebel coach Mike Sanford was the offensive coordinator of the Utes in their two dream seasons of 2003 and 2004. He famously rushed out of a Utah practice for the Fiesta Bowl to take the UNLV job. Obviously he is intimately familiar with the Utes and their entire program. He knows the personnel, the schemes, the talent, the strengths and weaknesses. He also has a couple of staffers with him from Utah. Meanwhile, Utah (3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is in a definite rebuilding mode, and the offense has struggled away from Salt Lake (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on the road). Utah has basically fallen off the map in the Mountain West, losing four of five after last week's embarrassing loss to San Diego State. Did you know that the Utes have not covered a game this season? They've lost all 3 games on the road, running for less than 4 yards per carry and scoring a grand total of just 54 points which equates to a measly 18 PPG.
When this line came out I balked at it, thought it was in error and patiently waited for some sort of adjustment. Now three days after the lines opened it is still the same. Perhaps both the lines maker and the betting public are thinking of Utah (last years version). The Utes average game last year was a 45-20 win, this year 24-24 tie. Last year, Utah was favored by 24 over UNLV. That game was at Utah, but if you take away 3 for home field and give that 3 to UNLV we’re looking at about 18 or so and considering that UNLV is just about as bad as they were this year, this line suggests that Utah is only 5 points worse than they were this same weekend last year. FYI they are a lot worse! With line value, UNLV coaches' familiarity with the opponent, and a struggling Ute team on the road we have not other choice but to back this home dog. Take the generous points.
Projected Score: Utah 17, UNLV 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UNLV +12
FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 4) at TROY ST (2 - 4)
Week 8 Thursday, 10/20/2005 7:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
A Sun Belt battle featuring two teams that have a long ways to go. Florida International (1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) beat Florida A&M 23-6, but other than that nothing has gone right. In fairness, they opened the season with big losses to Kansas State, Texas Tech and Arkansas State all on the road! Junior QB Josh Padrick (5 TDs, 7 INTs) is still learning, while RB Ben West anchors the ground attack, but the defense is weak allowing 35 points per game. They were a home favorite over North Texas Saturday, but lost 13-10. The Golden Panthers (0-2 Sun Belt) drove the field late in the fourth quarter, driving 62 yards on eight plays. But on a fourth-and-one from the North Texas 24-yard line, FIU head coach Don Strock called on placekicker Adam Moss to attempt a tying 41-yard field goal. The kick sailed wide left. The drive ended and so did the game. This will be the Trojans’ (2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) first home game in more than a month as they has played four straight road games. They have no resemblance of any running game whatsoever or much offense of any kind (15 points, 158 pass yards per game). Troy did have a huge 13-10 upset of North Texas, which ended the Mean Green's 26-game Sun Belt Conference winning streak, but they regressed last week in a 27-3 loss at UL-Monroe. They certainly looked tired last week against Louisiana-Monroe, as they committed four turnovers and were penalized 12 times. Sophomore Kenny Cattouse leads this young, conservative offense. True freshman QB Julius Foster completed 15 of 24 passes for 174 yards in his collegiate debut. Troy beat FIU 21-10 in 2003 in the only meeting between the schools and we'd expect a similar result here this season. Don't look for much offense in this (yawn) one.
Forecast: FLA International 14, Troy State 17
OPINION SELECTION ON TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM
1* ARMY +9
1* UNLV +12
Opinions: TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5
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VIRGINIA (4 - 2) at N CAROLINA (2 - 3)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 12:00 PM
vs Analysis
Virginia (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) has a fine program under coach Al Grohe, and that was evident Saturday in a thrilling 26-21 victory over No. 4 Florida State. Virginia gave up a ton of yards to FSU, but they have a strong offense of their own behind junior QB Marques Hagans, who was 27-of-36 for 306 yards, 2 TDs, no picks against the Seminoles. I've never seen a quarterback make as many one-man plays as he made tonight," Bobby Bowden said of Hagans. But taken as a whole, their offense has been inconsistent as Hagans seems to turn in a solid performance every other week, so could he be due for a letdown this week. Virginia's defense has been weak the last three weeks, in a 45-33 loss at Maryland, giving up 570 yards! Then they lost 28-17 to BC, allowing 497 yards, including 196 rushing and FSU even had 472 yards. Meanwhile, North Carolina (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare....and they needed it, after a 69-14 loss at Louisville. This is a young, rebuilding UNC bunch, led by senior QB Matt Baker, and Baker had 6 TDs and 8 INTs. UNC is allowing 30 points and 253 passing yards each game, so Virginia should be able to score plenty -- though beware of a letdown spot for the high-flying Cavaliers. North Carolina is also 9-4 "over" the total its last 13 games, while Virginia is 2-0 "over" the total on the road this season.
For this big-margin revenge game, UNC will have had an extra week to prepare, plus the advantage of having been home and taking more notes while watching Virginia’s nationally televised, late-night Saturday effort against Florida State. Virginia smoked UNC 56-24 a year ago. The 592 yards Virginia piled up during the 56-24 victory was the most ever in the history of this series and Virginia has dominated the Tar Heels lately, taking four of the last five. North Carolina is coming off a bye and it had plenty to work on after a 69-14 loss at Louisville two weeks ago but lets be honest, Louisville can score 69 against anyone on a given day and they would probably score 70 against Virginia’s poor defense.
The Louisville game notwithstanding, North Carolina is playing better football than Virginia. Granted just last week Virginia played its best game of the year but I'm still having flashbacks about how Boston College pushed the Cavaliers all over the field two weeks ago. Carolina hasn’t covered in seven tries against UVA, but the Heels are 9-1 ATS in their last ten ACC games and appear poised to stop that seven-game pointspread losing streak. Moreover, NC Coach John Bunting generally prepares his team well after a bye week. After decisive road losses against Texas in 2001 and Utah in 2004, the Tar Heels returned home to capture two of the biggest victories in the history of the program, against Florida State and Miami (FL), respectively.
Projected Score: Virginia 24, No Carolina 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM
ARMY (0 - 6) at AKRON (3 - 3)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 6:00 PM
vs Analysis
WOW yet again Bobby Ross isn't getting a lot of respect with this betting line. Winless Army (eleven straight losses) is still struggling after last weeks 38-17 loss to TCU. The Frogs couldn't seem to shake Army (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS), which responded with a 66-yard march late in the game, highlighted by a 37-yard completion from QB Zac Dahman to Jeremy Trimble on fourth-and-4. That set up RB Carlton Jones' 3-yard touchdown run, cutting the TCU lead to seven with 8:10 left. Army is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS on the road where the Cadets are getting beat by a 41-12 average. Akron (3-3 SU/ATS) fell 51-23 to Miami of Ohio Saturday. Akron turned over the ball six times four on fumbles and two on interceptions and the Zips were penalized 10 times for 108 yards. QB Luke Getsy was 19-of-35 for 169 yards. The Cadets are being outscored 32-13 and the stagnant offense is taking time to develop.
This is really a tricky spot for the now overvalued home Zips, as they have a much-anticipated showdown against Bowling Green on deck. Akron knows exactly what his task is here – get the win, keep everyone healthy, and then move on, with that huge home showdown next week. That by itself helps to keep this one close, since both teams lack big play ability on offense and will be content to work the clock with their power ground game. We are also getting some significant line value due to Army’s loss at T.C.U. on Saturday night, which as stated above was misleading since they only trailed 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter. Look for Carlton Jones and Scott Wesley to find plenty of room on the ground vs. this defense, which creates a chance to control the football and the game flow. This is a very generous number so take the points.
Projected Score: Akron 21, Army 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARMY +9
UTAH (3 - 4) at UNLV (2 - 5)
Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Rebels played their game for a half at Air Force last week. They were within 7 at the intermission, but couldn't stay away from costly mistakes over the final two quarters. UNLV (2-5 SU/ATS) has only one way to win games right now. Play close to the vest on offense and let the defense stuff the opponent. QB Jarrod Jackson does not understand this spread-option offense and is struggling to say the least. So, HC Mike Sanford has simplified the attack, turning it basically into a "3-yards and a cloud of dust" approach. However, UNLV's defense is still holding opponents to an amazing 2.9 yards per carry! Rebel coach Mike Sanford was the offensive coordinator of the Utes in their two dream seasons of 2003 and 2004. He famously rushed out of a Utah practice for the Fiesta Bowl to take the UNLV job. Obviously he is intimately familiar with the Utes and their entire program. He knows the personnel, the schemes, the talent, the strengths and weaknesses. He also has a couple of staffers with him from Utah. Meanwhile, Utah (3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is in a definite rebuilding mode, and the offense has struggled away from Salt Lake (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on the road). Utah has basically fallen off the map in the Mountain West, losing four of five after last week's embarrassing loss to San Diego State. Did you know that the Utes have not covered a game this season? They've lost all 3 games on the road, running for less than 4 yards per carry and scoring a grand total of just 54 points which equates to a measly 18 PPG.
When this line came out I balked at it, thought it was in error and patiently waited for some sort of adjustment. Now three days after the lines opened it is still the same. Perhaps both the lines maker and the betting public are thinking of Utah (last years version). The Utes average game last year was a 45-20 win, this year 24-24 tie. Last year, Utah was favored by 24 over UNLV. That game was at Utah, but if you take away 3 for home field and give that 3 to UNLV we’re looking at about 18 or so and considering that UNLV is just about as bad as they were this year, this line suggests that Utah is only 5 points worse than they were this same weekend last year. FYI they are a lot worse! With line value, UNLV coaches' familiarity with the opponent, and a struggling Ute team on the road we have not other choice but to back this home dog. Take the generous points.
Projected Score: Utah 17, UNLV 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UNLV +12
FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 4) at TROY ST (2 - 4)
Week 8 Thursday, 10/20/2005 7:30 PM
vs Analysis
A Sun Belt battle featuring two teams that have a long ways to go. Florida International (1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) beat Florida A&M 23-6, but other than that nothing has gone right. In fairness, they opened the season with big losses to Kansas State, Texas Tech and Arkansas State all on the road! Junior QB Josh Padrick (5 TDs, 7 INTs) is still learning, while RB Ben West anchors the ground attack, but the defense is weak allowing 35 points per game. They were a home favorite over North Texas Saturday, but lost 13-10. The Golden Panthers (0-2 Sun Belt) drove the field late in the fourth quarter, driving 62 yards on eight plays. But on a fourth-and-one from the North Texas 24-yard line, FIU head coach Don Strock called on placekicker Adam Moss to attempt a tying 41-yard field goal. The kick sailed wide left. The drive ended and so did the game. This will be the Trojans’ (2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) first home game in more than a month as they has played four straight road games. They have no resemblance of any running game whatsoever or much offense of any kind (15 points, 158 pass yards per game). Troy did have a huge 13-10 upset of North Texas, which ended the Mean Green's 26-game Sun Belt Conference winning streak, but they regressed last week in a 27-3 loss at UL-Monroe. They certainly looked tired last week against Louisiana-Monroe, as they committed four turnovers and were penalized 12 times. Sophomore Kenny Cattouse leads this young, conservative offense. True freshman QB Julius Foster completed 15 of 24 passes for 174 yards in his collegiate debut. Troy beat FIU 21-10 in 2003 in the only meeting between the schools and we'd expect a similar result here this season. Don't look for much offense in this (yawn) one.
Forecast: FLA International 14, Troy State 17
OPINION SELECTION ON TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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