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Anytime you take odds on a 2-touchdown underdog it is understood that you probably will not win the bet. But sometimes the matchup dictates good value.
I like the Rams to cover and also am risking a 1/4 unit on the ML. Much like Memphis Saturday on the ML (winner), Virginia on the ML (winner), and Florida on the ML (loser).
In those 3 games the ML looked good. And I think it looks good tonight. But my first objective is to cover the spread which gives me a winning night even if they do not win SU.
I see a lot about how good the Colts are. But the Rams (even with their swiss cheese defense) are still a pretty darn good club w/Jackson and Faulk and a Solid QB--all looking to post a win for Martz.
I'm a little taken back by how little respect the Rams are getting in this game at a number of forums. They are a good team that needs a little defensive help.
The Colts have not given up many points, but they have not played any team with offensive power. The Rams are #2 in Offense in the League and #6 in Scoring.
The Rams have allowed 81 points in their last two games (44 and 37) which only tells me they might actually show up tonight defensively—at least for their limited standards.
One of the best NFL Betting Systems EVER is to GO AGAINST an NFL Team that has won their last two games scoring 30> and allowing 12 or less in each of those games if they are now playing outside their division. This comes scarily close to that as the Colts have won their last two 31-10 and 28-3.
Earlier this season the Steelers were in a similar situation after winning 34-7 and 27-7. "Close" to the criteria. They had every reason to get revenge on the Patriots, but when the final whistle sounded, the Steelers fell flat to the system (or, "almost" system).
While technically not a play according to the System's own criteria, imo it is close enough to warrant--at the very least--not laying DOUBLE DIGITS to the NFL's #2 Offense in the League and the Colts FIRST REAL TEST of the Season regarding how much their defense has or has not improved.
Other observations:
When the Rams played San Fran they went against Rattay. The Colts went against Alex Smith.
The Rams have played below their season average in net yardage for 2 straight weeks and could play up.
After being +2 in Turnovers their first 2 games, the Rams are -8 in their last 3 including. Bounce back?
After being blown out by 20 points against the Giants due to giving up 44 points, they followed up by handling the Seahawks until…their defense collapsed in a 31-37 OT loss. Emphasis on D tonight?
Rams have passed for 743 yards last two games going over 300 in each. Usually a good spot to look to go against faves or with dogs.
Rams pass D has allowed nearly 300 yards each of last 2 games. Usually a good spot to look to them as a dog.
Rams have rushed for a combined 119 yards in last two games, both of which fell under their first 3 games average and beneath their current season average. Rams key in on run tonight.
After allowing a total of about 200 rush yards in their first 3 games combined, Rams have allowed nearly 300 in their last 2 combined. Key in on defense.
In the turnover department, the Rams have zero take aways in each of last two games. This is not an automatic play on because sometimes teams just don’t force turnovers. But in this case, the Rams have proven themselves in forcing 8 take aways in their first 3 games. Good spot to force t.o.’s.
After turning the ball over only twice in their first 2 games, the Rams have turned it over 11 (count’em) times in their last 3 games.
The Rams are in a contrare bounce back situation in virtually every statistical category—which means nothing if they are just a BAD football team. As you know, contrare capping will kill ya’ with BAD teams. But they a not a bad team. They have won games, they have covered games, and they are outstanding on at least one side of the ball and primed to bounce back on the other side.
The only objection would be if the line is bad, or if Vegas had not caught up with the Rams opponent yet (see Va Tech and Texas Univ). But that is not the case. This year’s Colts are not the ’99 Rams or ’04 Chargers. They are not under the Radar by any means. Let’s look at it logically. If the stinkin’ Browns and average Jags can COVER against this year’s Colts, why not the RAMS? And all the more coming off a few losses in a very realistic bounce back role?
All this in and of itself would be enough. Now couple that with the fact that the Rams in tonight’s situation have the added emotional incentive to win this one for Martz. And finally, as if a realistic and probable bounce back is not enough, they are going against a team that is in somewhat of a letdown role…
They are off two big wins and playing outside their division with the PATRIOTS on deck! Think their not thinking of that game yet???? You better believe it! A Monday Night Matchup to AVENGE the Pats! Trust me, despite the fact that they play Houston next week and then a Bye, THE PATS ON NEXT ON DECK. What is their to think about vs the Texans? They are looking right past them and on to the Pats. I doubt they are looking past the Rams tonight, but they know their game of the year vs the Pats is on deck for all practical purposes.
The Colts are not unbeatable, and they are only 3-2 ATS and coming off 2 SU and ATS ******.
Indy has played over their season average in each of their last two games in net yardage.
They have won each of their last two by double digits (actually by 21 or more). Can they make it 3 in a row against hungry and inspired Rams?
They have gone over their season average in Pass Yards in each of last 3 games.
After allowing an average of 222 yards Passing in their first 4 games, they gave up 44 yards last week. Not a good place to lay points to a high powered passing offense.
The Colts had 5 take-aways last week after having 1 in the prior three.
I think this is a really good spot to take a shot. The ML pays 7-1. In my opinion if this same scenario comes up 8 times with the same two teams in the same situation, the Rams win SU MORE THAN 1 out of eight times; perhaps as many as 4 SU wins, a few ******, and a non-cover. For those playing the Rams, let's hope tonight is not the non-cover. That happens sometimes too…
gl,
dave
I like the Rams to cover and also am risking a 1/4 unit on the ML. Much like Memphis Saturday on the ML (winner), Virginia on the ML (winner), and Florida on the ML (loser).
In those 3 games the ML looked good. And I think it looks good tonight. But my first objective is to cover the spread which gives me a winning night even if they do not win SU.
I see a lot about how good the Colts are. But the Rams (even with their swiss cheese defense) are still a pretty darn good club w/Jackson and Faulk and a Solid QB--all looking to post a win for Martz.
I'm a little taken back by how little respect the Rams are getting in this game at a number of forums. They are a good team that needs a little defensive help.
The Colts have not given up many points, but they have not played any team with offensive power. The Rams are #2 in Offense in the League and #6 in Scoring.
The Rams have allowed 81 points in their last two games (44 and 37) which only tells me they might actually show up tonight defensively—at least for their limited standards.
One of the best NFL Betting Systems EVER is to GO AGAINST an NFL Team that has won their last two games scoring 30> and allowing 12 or less in each of those games if they are now playing outside their division. This comes scarily close to that as the Colts have won their last two 31-10 and 28-3.
Earlier this season the Steelers were in a similar situation after winning 34-7 and 27-7. "Close" to the criteria. They had every reason to get revenge on the Patriots, but when the final whistle sounded, the Steelers fell flat to the system (or, "almost" system).
While technically not a play according to the System's own criteria, imo it is close enough to warrant--at the very least--not laying DOUBLE DIGITS to the NFL's #2 Offense in the League and the Colts FIRST REAL TEST of the Season regarding how much their defense has or has not improved.
Other observations:
When the Rams played San Fran they went against Rattay. The Colts went against Alex Smith.
The Rams have played below their season average in net yardage for 2 straight weeks and could play up.
After being +2 in Turnovers their first 2 games, the Rams are -8 in their last 3 including. Bounce back?
After being blown out by 20 points against the Giants due to giving up 44 points, they followed up by handling the Seahawks until…their defense collapsed in a 31-37 OT loss. Emphasis on D tonight?
Rams have passed for 743 yards last two games going over 300 in each. Usually a good spot to look to go against faves or with dogs.
Rams pass D has allowed nearly 300 yards each of last 2 games. Usually a good spot to look to them as a dog.
Rams have rushed for a combined 119 yards in last two games, both of which fell under their first 3 games average and beneath their current season average. Rams key in on run tonight.
After allowing a total of about 200 rush yards in their first 3 games combined, Rams have allowed nearly 300 in their last 2 combined. Key in on defense.
In the turnover department, the Rams have zero take aways in each of last two games. This is not an automatic play on because sometimes teams just don’t force turnovers. But in this case, the Rams have proven themselves in forcing 8 take aways in their first 3 games. Good spot to force t.o.’s.
After turning the ball over only twice in their first 2 games, the Rams have turned it over 11 (count’em) times in their last 3 games.
The Rams are in a contrare bounce back situation in virtually every statistical category—which means nothing if they are just a BAD football team. As you know, contrare capping will kill ya’ with BAD teams. But they a not a bad team. They have won games, they have covered games, and they are outstanding on at least one side of the ball and primed to bounce back on the other side.
The only objection would be if the line is bad, or if Vegas had not caught up with the Rams opponent yet (see Va Tech and Texas Univ). But that is not the case. This year’s Colts are not the ’99 Rams or ’04 Chargers. They are not under the Radar by any means. Let’s look at it logically. If the stinkin’ Browns and average Jags can COVER against this year’s Colts, why not the RAMS? And all the more coming off a few losses in a very realistic bounce back role?
All this in and of itself would be enough. Now couple that with the fact that the Rams in tonight’s situation have the added emotional incentive to win this one for Martz. And finally, as if a realistic and probable bounce back is not enough, they are going against a team that is in somewhat of a letdown role…
They are off two big wins and playing outside their division with the PATRIOTS on deck! Think their not thinking of that game yet???? You better believe it! A Monday Night Matchup to AVENGE the Pats! Trust me, despite the fact that they play Houston next week and then a Bye, THE PATS ON NEXT ON DECK. What is their to think about vs the Texans? They are looking right past them and on to the Pats. I doubt they are looking past the Rams tonight, but they know their game of the year vs the Pats is on deck for all practical purposes.
The Colts are not unbeatable, and they are only 3-2 ATS and coming off 2 SU and ATS ******.
Indy has played over their season average in each of their last two games in net yardage.
They have won each of their last two by double digits (actually by 21 or more). Can they make it 3 in a row against hungry and inspired Rams?
They have gone over their season average in Pass Yards in each of last 3 games.
After allowing an average of 222 yards Passing in their first 4 games, they gave up 44 yards last week. Not a good place to lay points to a high powered passing offense.
The Colts had 5 take-aways last week after having 1 in the prior three.
I think this is a really good spot to take a shot. The ML pays 7-1. In my opinion if this same scenario comes up 8 times with the same two teams in the same situation, the Rams win SU MORE THAN 1 out of eight times; perhaps as many as 4 SU wins, a few ******, and a non-cover. For those playing the Rams, let's hope tonight is not the non-cover. That happens sometimes too…
gl,
dave
It's always noon somewhere! 
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