Spear-it MNF Total

[Spearit]

St. Louis/Indy Over 24 1/2 Buy a 1/2 point if you can.

For what its worth -heres how I see this game tonight. In analyzing the stats and trends- it seems to be a game of two halves. Indy has performed offensively well in the first half of the last two games after the first three were defensive. Their defense has shut down teams and have only given up 29 points. St. Louis scores 70 % of their points in the first half. I expect 21-10 Indy in the first half and then Indy getting a 31-17 win. With Coach Martz out- Dungy outcoaches the interim for the Rams in the second half. Indy continues to be touted as the team to beat for Super Bowl consideration. The reason I don't jump on Indy is the unpredictable coaching debut on the Rams. The second half should be more defensive.

Some trends to consider. Please understand that Indy is awesome on defense and especially at home- But a number of injuries have begun to crop up on their defense. I have showed the injuries below as well. Generally wouldn't go against the defensive nature of Indy. I would be on the under without question.

Trends: Depend on these for a feel for the matchup of these two teams- next survey turnovers, yds passing and rushing, ats, home/away, etc.
ST LOUIS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 15.0, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.7, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 0*)
ST LOUIS is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.7, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 11.7, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 9.8, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 1*)
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.8, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 0*)
There are 15 trends with a total rating of 16 stars.
ST LOUIS is 16-7 OVER (+8.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.6, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 0*)
ST LOUIS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 11.8, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 2*)
ST LOUIS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 11.8, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 2*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in October games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 15.0, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.3, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.0, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.4, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.5, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*)
ST LOUIS is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 15.9, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 13.5, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 0*)
ST LOUIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 15.5, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 14.5, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 0*)
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 9.2, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.7, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS is 16-7 OVER (+8.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.6, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 0*)

Injuries:
ST LOUIS
T Rex Tucker Calf Questionable Mon. vs Ind. 10/11
TE Brandon Manumaleuna Knee Questionable Mon. vs Ind. 10/11
WR Isaac Bruce Toe Questionable Mon. vs Ind. 10/11
CB Jerametrius Butler Knee Out for the season. 8/22
INDIANAPOLIS
DB Bob Sanders Leg Questionable Mon. vs Stl. 10/11
TE Ben Utecht Chest Questionable Mon. vs Stl. 10/11
RB James Mungro Knee Questionable Mon. vs Stl. 10/11
S Joseph Jefferson Toe Questionable Mon. vs Stl. 10/11
LB Gilbert Gardner Ankle Out indefinitely. 9/29
CB Von Hutchins Foot PUP List. 8/8
DB Donald Strickland Hamstring I-R. 9/15
G Cody Campbell Pectoral I-R. 9/16
LB Kendyll Pope Suspension Out for the season. 9/4
DE Nathaniel Adibi Shoulder I-R. 9/16
DT Josh Williams Groin PUP List. 8/8
LB Deryck Toles Groin I-R. 9/16
WR Brad Pyatt Shoulder I-R. 9/16
OT Makoa Freitas Foot I-R. 9/16
QB Travis Brown Elbow I-R. 8/28

[Spearit]

As you can see below- Indy has played no real offensive team. Tenn was the most equivalent to look at. St. Louis has a decent offense- on par with Indy at this point of the season. The difference is the awesome defense of Indy. Only 6 points so far in the first half and 23 in the second half for Indy. Martz calls the plays and he is out. Rams run at Indy- but will be forced to pass with Indy's swarming defense. No one can cover Indy DE. Turnovers are the key to this over in the first half.

ST LOUIS - Team played - End score- Half-time
9/11/2005 @ SAN FRANCISCO 25-28 ---9-21
9/18/2005 @ ARIZONA 17-12 ----------10-6
9/25/2005 TENNESSEE 31-27 ----------17-10
10/2/2005 @ NY GIANTS 24-44 --------17-27
10/9/2005 SEATTLE 31-37 -------------21-24
10/17/2005 @ INDIANAPOLIS



INDIANAPOLIS -
9/11/2005 @ BALTIMORE 24-7 -----------------3-0
9/18/2005 JACKSONVILLE 10-3----------------- 0-0
9/25/2005 CLEVELAND 13-6 --------------------10-3
10/2/2005 @ TENNESSEE 31-10 ----------------17-3
10/9/2005 @ SAN FRANCISCO 28-3 -------------14-0
10/17/2005 ST LOUIS

[Lsufan]

Good Luck Spearit. Thanks for all the info.

[lowrider66]

gl today spearit!

[keawe]

Thanks for the info, and good luck today buddy!!!!!

[Spearit]

Thanx guys for your comments. Watch for Torry Holt to play or not be able to play tonight!

A little more info on the game. Martz was first hospitalized Sept. 30 with what was thought to be a sinus infection, but coached two days later during a 44-24 loss to the New York Giants. He was on the sidelines Oct. 9 as the Rams fell 37-31 to Seattle, and he blamed himself for the loss, saying offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild should have called the shots.

"I wasn't myself this week, the game plan wasn't clear for me," he said. "It's over with now, but I just feel what happened to me has affected this team, and that breaks my heart."

Here it soumds like Martz is losing it. The pressure of winning and the health problems are taking its toll. however, he has faith in Fairchild to call the plays

Marc Bulger, the league's leading passer, was 26-for-40 for 336 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last game.

Bulger and the Rams, second in the league in offensive yards per game (384.8) and fourth in scoring average (25.6), pose a significant test for a Colts defense that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL.

It should be noted here that St. Louis is 40-10 at home and not a great road team. Also Bulger has provided 19 fumbles and retrieved only 6 of them in 41 games.

Led by speedy defensive linemen Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, the Colts have piled up a league-leading 20 sacks. Mathis is tied for the NFL lead with six and Freeney, who had an NFL-best 16 in 2004, has five.

The Colts have struggled against the run at times this season,

Indianapolis sacked 49ers No. 1 draft pick Alex Smith five times in his first start and intercepted four of his passes to overcome a sluggish offense.

STANDINGS: Rams -- 2nd place, NFC West. Colts -- 1st place, AFC South.

RAMS LEADERS: Offense -- Bulger, 1,648 passing yards and 10 passing TDs; Steven Jackson, 295 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs; Torry Holt, 38 receptions, 568 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. Defense -- Leonard Little, 4 sacks; Adam Archuleta, DeJuan Groce and Michael Hawthorne, 1 INT.

COLTS LEADERS: Offense -- Manning, 1,123 passing yards and 7 passing TDs; James, 519 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs; Marvin Harrison, 26 receptions and 3 receiving TDs; Reggie Wayne, 289 receiving yards. Defense -- Mathis, 6 sacks; Cato June, 3 INTs.

RAMS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense -- 83.4 yards per game (23rd in NFL); Passing Offense -- 301.4 ypg (3rd); Total Offense -- 384.8 ypg (2nd). Rushing Defense -- 100.2 ypg (12th); Passing Defense -- 263.8 ypg (28th); Total Defense -- 364.0 ypg (26th).

COLTS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense -- 112.6 ypg (17th); Passing Offense -- 222.6 ypg (14th); Total Offense -- 335.2 ypg (15th). Rushing Defense -- 104.4 ypg (16th); Passing Defense -- 187.0 ypg (9th); Total Defense -- 291.4 ypg (7th).

STREAKS AND NOTES: Rams -- Bulger surpassed 11,000 passing yards last week in his 41st career game, second fastest all-time behind ex-Ram Kurt Warner. ... WR Holt has 36 career 100-yard games, tied for fourth-best in a player's first seven seasons. Colts -- Manning started his 117th consecutive game against the Niners, the second-longest streak among QBs behind Brett Favre (210). ... The Colts are 37-6 when RB James rushes for 100 yards. ... LB June has two INT returns for TDs this season.

[superfly]

hey spearit..thanks for all the info. my book has the first half at 27...do u still
like the over? that means 4 touchdowns.hopefull6y 3 for indy and1 for da rams
your input would be much appreciated. thanks spearit

[RJeremy]

oh, is that a 1st half bet? i don't think it said that.


GL tonight!

[Spearit]

Ya know RJ -You are right. All first half trends and notes. This is going to be a great game tonight- such as the college games on Saturday were. I would hesitate on the 27 as the number itself seems to be to0 high. Remember for every point the public takes away from the original Vegas point line - there is a 3% change in rather it succeeds in winning. In this case, we are looking at a 7.5% difference in the betting structure. This is generally a no bet for me - Check to see if Torry Holt plays and then you may have a better idea what you want to do. Holt for St. Louis is questionable (and a big Bulger target) according to the Colts team page.

[ThaCooler]

Good Luck!!

[Spearit]

I wanted to put this up again- (These are notes from Frank I believe.)
The reason to look at the half point is common sense. Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the first-half:

17 -- 9 percent of all games

13 -- 8 percent of all games

20 -- 7.9 percent of all games

24 -- 7.3 percent of all games

Judging by these figures, you should be wary of laying a half point on either side of these key numbers in the first-half. For instance, if you expect a low-scoring first-half and want to bet UNDER, 17.5 is a much stronger total to go UNDER than 16.5. That extra point means you pick up 9 percent of value. With 20 and 24, the same holds true. It is generally advisable (all other factors being equal) to bet OVER 23.5 and UNDER 24.5. The half point can play a really big role, when there is only 30-minutes of football to be played.


I played the 24 1/2 - so I am at fault in these rules- I guess. However, 27 when you think about it has only 25 or 26 as different numbers you could lose by. Since these numbers are rare- what is the difference of betting 24. 5 and 26.5 or 27. I would generally win the 27 bet and you would tie-no big deal.

Most totals (for halves) fall somewhere in the 17 to 24 range. A very small number of games may have a first-half totals set at 16.5 or less (when there are two dominant defenses, or inclement weather). A few games have totals set at 24.5 and higher (usually Rams' games and teams with explosive offenses playing at home).

The actual average number of points scored in the first-half is 20.8. Just seems these offenses go over in the first half. :uzi:

[phonepole]

Spearit... I saw a 1st half total of 26 and a 1st quarter total of 10.... the over 10 looks pretty good, what do you think?

[Kaptain]

gl to ya----the first qtr OVER 10 is a great looking bet....kapt

[Spearit]

Generally the first quarter is not as prolific as the second quarter for these teams- but who can argue with 10. That is not a bad bet.

[ChuckLazar]

Great to see you back, good luck Pal!!