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YET ANOTHER PROFITABLE WEEKEND IN THE NFL, TRADITIONALLY MY SPECIALITY AGAIN WINNING THE TOP TWO PLAYS WITH CLEVELAND AND NEW YORK COVERING WITH EASE. I HAVE NOW WON 17 OUT OF THE LAST 19 WEEKS COMBINED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. WITH LAST WEEKS PROFIT, I HAVE ALSO NOT HAD A LOSING WEEK THIS YEAR IN THE NFL, AND HAVE WON AN AMAZING 14 STRAIGHT WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 7 WINS 1 LOSS (87.5%)
1* 5 WINS 9 LOSSES (35.7%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* BALTIMORE -5.5
1* BUFFALO -3 ADDED
1* NEW ORLEANS +5.5 ADDED
1* HOUSTON +10
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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Cleveland (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. The offense is 16th in NFL (16 points, 75 yds rushing, 251 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer leads a passing attack that is 9th in the NFL! Most impressive has been a tough defense that, despite a lack of depth and talent, is 16th in the NFL. Cleveland is off a 20-10 win over the Bears, even though HC Romeo Crennel's defense was sliced up for 137 yards rushing by Thomas Jones. However, it cranked up the heat on Chicago rookie quarterback Kyle Orton when the game was put in his hands. In the last 6½ minutes, Orton was sacked twice, stripped of the ball once and pressured into 3-of-7 passing for 18 yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The Ravens play old school football, pounding the ball with their running game while playing tough defensively. Despite getting smoked on Sunday, 35-17 at Detroit, the defense is still 2nd in the NFL (allowing 11 points, 91 yds rushing, 167 passing pg). However, the final score was a bit misleading as the Ravens had an edge in total yards 387-266.
At 1-3 SU (the worst start in franchise history) a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season. Also don’t be surprised if we see a game that fly’s over the posted total as I think this is a great situation for the Baltimore offense to get back on track against a team that is allowing 44 YPG more than it gains. Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell us that .250 Game Five home teams playing off a loss against an opponent off a win are 32-12-3 ATS since 1980. With the strong home field in which the Ravens have won seven of 10 by more than a touchdown and the fact that the Ravens have a season's worth of frustrations to vent. Today's the day to lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: BAL Ravens 28, CLE Browns 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE -5.5
NY JETS (2 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
The AFC East walking wounded meet! Actually, both have had QB trouble and have been disappointments, though both found a win last week. The limping NY Jets (2-3 SU/ATS) did the unthinkable, topping the previously undefeated Buccaneers 14-12 behind newcomer QB Vinnie Testaverde. However, it was the defense that got the job done, as the miserable NY offense got 212 TOTAL yards and 2.3 yards rushing per carry. Testaverde didn't scare anyone going 13-of-19 for 163 yards, one pick. RB Curtis Martin was held to 30 yards on 13 carries two weeks ago and had 59 yards (2.6 ypc) against Tampa Bay. This is still a very bad offense. The Jets are also 4-16 SU, 6-11-3 ATS their last 20 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Buffalo (2-3 SU/ATS) got a much needed spark from quarterback Kelly Holcomb against the Miami Dolphins last week. The Bills snapped a three-game losing streak as Holcomb threw for 176 yards and was efficient enough to get the Bills the victory. The Bills came storming out of the locker room as if their season was on the brink. On Buffalo's first three drives, Holcomb directed the offense to two touchdowns and a field goal. The Bills led, 17-0, after just 22 minutes and threw the no-huddle offense at the Dolphins on each of their first two drives.
Well guys I live right outside New York City and the story this week has been the torrential rainfall and wind from a stalled tropical front. Believe it or not it has not stopped raining for over a week here. All of the papers (were obsessed with sports here in NY) have been talking about the lack of practice time for both the New York teams due to the inclement weather. At the time the Jets practice was scheduled to start on Wednesday, a strong wind was blowing sideways rain making it impossible for the Jets to have a productive practice. As a result, the Jets had to practice much of the week inside, instead of simulating the conditions they are expected to face Sunday in Buffalo. Indeed, New York did not practice on either Monday or Tuesday. And on Thursday, a hard rain and high wind was present at practice once again. This will be a daunting task for the Jets who now have to travel to Buffalo with the forecast for rain and 25 mph winds. So I guess the question will be whether the Jets were able iron out the kinks on offense to improve on their meager offensive output. That big offensive performance will have to wait another week based on the practice weather, game weather, and that fact that the Jets still have an immobile #2 QB starting on the road for the first time this season, with a slightly injured featured running back Curtis Martin. For the New York defense, stopping Willis McGahee on a slippery field will be much harder than stopping Jamal Lewis or those so-so Tampa Bay backs that they have faced the last two weeks. Furthermore, Buffalo’s defensive unit should get plenty of pressure on Testaverde forcing him into plenty of turnovers.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 17, NYJ Jets 6
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -3
ATLANTA (3 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
* ATL QB Vick is Probable, NO RB McAllister is Out
vs 
Analysis
Here’s a selection that you will cry when you see, and for good reason but hear me out and then decide. The Saints couldn’t have played any worse in their 52-3 loss at winless Green Bay. Inside the numbers, New Orleans had 5 turnovers, 13 penalties, dreadful special teams, and a whopping 31 of the Packers' 52 points came off turnovers on Sunday. But week in and week out I make the same statement over and over again to you guys…”if anything is true in the NFL it is to not expect last week’s effort to be a harbinger of things to come.”
The Saints (2-3 SU/ATS) couldn't stop a depleted Packers offense that was missing Pro Bowlers Javon Walker, Ahman Green and Bubba Franks (for all but one snap), and starting center Mike Flanagan. As if that wasn't enough, both of Green Bay's tackles were playing on gimpy left legs. New Orleans lost two fumbles and had three passes intercepted, including one thrown by backup Todd Bouman that was returned 95 yards for a touchdown. The Saints also lost RB Deuce McAllister (knee) for the season. QB Aaron Brooks went to the bench midway through the third quarter after completing just 9 of 22 passes for 146 yards and no TDs. "We were just on the bad end of the whupping stick today," said Saints RB Aaron Stecker. Meanwhile, Atlanta played without an injured QB Michael Vick (sprained knee) Sunday in their 31-28 loss to the World Champion Patriots. Filling in admirably, QB Matt Schaub, a second-year player from Virginia, completed 18-of-34 for 298 yards and didn't have any turnovers in a strong effort that came up just short as the Pats pulled out one of their typical last-minute wins. More importantly, The Falcons also had a big loss when middle linebacker Ed Hartwell went down for the season. Harwell is a key performer for the Falcons and he’ll be greatly missed.
Coming off an embarrassing loss to a winless team is just the kind of situation I’m looking for. And with about 85% of the public on the Falcons I’m starting to soil myself. Add that to the fact that we are going head on into on of the scariest trends in all of the NFL (Falcons have covered 18 of 20 as a visitor against New Orleans) and we have a selection that will truly distinguish the sharp bettor from Joe public. Although the Saints probably won’t be a playoff contender, but they will able to make a big run just like last season and can’t be counted out. At 2-3, they are also in another must win situation off last weeks horrific performance. For those of you who have given up on the Saints let me remind everyone that last season’s largest NFL blowout loss was suffered by these Falcons, 56-10 at Kansas City. Well the very next Sunday Atlanta crushed Denver 41-28 as visitors. Oh yeah, the Saints in their only other “home” game this season defeated the Buffalo with relative ease.
Forecast: ATL Falcons 17, NO Saints 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ORLEANS +5.5
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 8:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
What am I thinking this weekend? I’m sure most of you will ask this with some of these selections as I’m even having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the winless Texans. The Texans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) who fell 34-20 to the Tennessee Titans. The Texans continued their downward spiral, converting none of their 13 third downs and managing just one touchdown. The script is the same each week: QB David Carr has been sacked seven times in each of the last two games! The defense didn't get a sack or a turnover. They have four sacks in four games, and they're the only team in the league that hasn't forced a turnover. The one bright spot is that they have offensive talent, and since the new offensive coordinator took over, Houston has rushed for 126 and 161 yards. And the run defense is allowing 3.8 ypc, 13th in the NFL. Meanwhile the Seahawks built some momentum Sunday when they toppled nemesis St. Louis 37-31. The Seahawks snapped a four-game losing streak against the Rams that included a first-round playoff loss last season. RB Shaun Alexander ran for 119 yards a pair of scores and QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, and Seattle (3-2 SU, ATS) moved into first place in the NFC west. It was impressive, as the receiving corps is depleted due to injuries to Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.But those injuries didn’t matter because the Rams’ secondary was so porous. The Texans have better athletes in their secondary than the Rams so don’t expect a similar offensive performance as last week.
The Seahawks have a fragile mental makeup and are in a huge letdown spot after beating the Rams and I will not be surprised if they take this game lightly. This is a rare national TV game for the Texans, being the Sunday night ESPN match-up but rest assured, the pressure is all on Seattle here. When the home team is off a hard-fought, triple-revenge win against a division rival, and looks ahead to hosting a revenge game against a Dallas Cowboys team that embarrassed them on their home field in a nationally televised Monday Night game last season, then the winless road underdog becomes the positive-expectation side. NFL betting history says that road underdogs of +6 or more cover 58% over 13 seasons, which makes the Texans the percentage play. Don’t be surprised if they managed to pull the outright upset here.
Forecast: SEA Seahawks 21, HOU Texans 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HOUSTON +10
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 7 WINS 1 LOSS (87.5%)
1* 5 WINS 9 LOSSES (35.7%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* BALTIMORE -5.5
1* BUFFALO -3 ADDED
1* NEW ORLEANS +5.5 ADDED
1* HOUSTON +10
--------------------------------------------------
CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Cleveland (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. The offense is 16th in NFL (16 points, 75 yds rushing, 251 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer leads a passing attack that is 9th in the NFL! Most impressive has been a tough defense that, despite a lack of depth and talent, is 16th in the NFL. Cleveland is off a 20-10 win over the Bears, even though HC Romeo Crennel's defense was sliced up for 137 yards rushing by Thomas Jones. However, it cranked up the heat on Chicago rookie quarterback Kyle Orton when the game was put in his hands. In the last 6½ minutes, Orton was sacked twice, stripped of the ball once and pressured into 3-of-7 passing for 18 yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The Ravens play old school football, pounding the ball with their running game while playing tough defensively. Despite getting smoked on Sunday, 35-17 at Detroit, the defense is still 2nd in the NFL (allowing 11 points, 91 yds rushing, 167 passing pg). However, the final score was a bit misleading as the Ravens had an edge in total yards 387-266.
At 1-3 SU (the worst start in franchise history) a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season. Also don’t be surprised if we see a game that fly’s over the posted total as I think this is a great situation for the Baltimore offense to get back on track against a team that is allowing 44 YPG more than it gains. Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell us that .250 Game Five home teams playing off a loss against an opponent off a win are 32-12-3 ATS since 1980. With the strong home field in which the Ravens have won seven of 10 by more than a touchdown and the fact that the Ravens have a season's worth of frustrations to vent. Today's the day to lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: BAL Ravens 28, CLE Browns 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE -5.5
NY JETS (2 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
The AFC East walking wounded meet! Actually, both have had QB trouble and have been disappointments, though both found a win last week. The limping NY Jets (2-3 SU/ATS) did the unthinkable, topping the previously undefeated Buccaneers 14-12 behind newcomer QB Vinnie Testaverde. However, it was the defense that got the job done, as the miserable NY offense got 212 TOTAL yards and 2.3 yards rushing per carry. Testaverde didn't scare anyone going 13-of-19 for 163 yards, one pick. RB Curtis Martin was held to 30 yards on 13 carries two weeks ago and had 59 yards (2.6 ypc) against Tampa Bay. This is still a very bad offense. The Jets are also 4-16 SU, 6-11-3 ATS their last 20 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Buffalo (2-3 SU/ATS) got a much needed spark from quarterback Kelly Holcomb against the Miami Dolphins last week. The Bills snapped a three-game losing streak as Holcomb threw for 176 yards and was efficient enough to get the Bills the victory. The Bills came storming out of the locker room as if their season was on the brink. On Buffalo's first three drives, Holcomb directed the offense to two touchdowns and a field goal. The Bills led, 17-0, after just 22 minutes and threw the no-huddle offense at the Dolphins on each of their first two drives.
Well guys I live right outside New York City and the story this week has been the torrential rainfall and wind from a stalled tropical front. Believe it or not it has not stopped raining for over a week here. All of the papers (were obsessed with sports here in NY) have been talking about the lack of practice time for both the New York teams due to the inclement weather. At the time the Jets practice was scheduled to start on Wednesday, a strong wind was blowing sideways rain making it impossible for the Jets to have a productive practice. As a result, the Jets had to practice much of the week inside, instead of simulating the conditions they are expected to face Sunday in Buffalo. Indeed, New York did not practice on either Monday or Tuesday. And on Thursday, a hard rain and high wind was present at practice once again. This will be a daunting task for the Jets who now have to travel to Buffalo with the forecast for rain and 25 mph winds. So I guess the question will be whether the Jets were able iron out the kinks on offense to improve on their meager offensive output. That big offensive performance will have to wait another week based on the practice weather, game weather, and that fact that the Jets still have an immobile #2 QB starting on the road for the first time this season, with a slightly injured featured running back Curtis Martin. For the New York defense, stopping Willis McGahee on a slippery field will be much harder than stopping Jamal Lewis or those so-so Tampa Bay backs that they have faced the last two weeks. Furthermore, Buffalo’s defensive unit should get plenty of pressure on Testaverde forcing him into plenty of turnovers.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 17, NYJ Jets 6
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -3
ATLANTA (3 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
* ATL QB Vick is Probable, NO RB McAllister is Out
vs Analysis
Here’s a selection that you will cry when you see, and for good reason but hear me out and then decide. The Saints couldn’t have played any worse in their 52-3 loss at winless Green Bay. Inside the numbers, New Orleans had 5 turnovers, 13 penalties, dreadful special teams, and a whopping 31 of the Packers' 52 points came off turnovers on Sunday. But week in and week out I make the same statement over and over again to you guys…”if anything is true in the NFL it is to not expect last week’s effort to be a harbinger of things to come.”
The Saints (2-3 SU/ATS) couldn't stop a depleted Packers offense that was missing Pro Bowlers Javon Walker, Ahman Green and Bubba Franks (for all but one snap), and starting center Mike Flanagan. As if that wasn't enough, both of Green Bay's tackles were playing on gimpy left legs. New Orleans lost two fumbles and had three passes intercepted, including one thrown by backup Todd Bouman that was returned 95 yards for a touchdown. The Saints also lost RB Deuce McAllister (knee) for the season. QB Aaron Brooks went to the bench midway through the third quarter after completing just 9 of 22 passes for 146 yards and no TDs. "We were just on the bad end of the whupping stick today," said Saints RB Aaron Stecker. Meanwhile, Atlanta played without an injured QB Michael Vick (sprained knee) Sunday in their 31-28 loss to the World Champion Patriots. Filling in admirably, QB Matt Schaub, a second-year player from Virginia, completed 18-of-34 for 298 yards and didn't have any turnovers in a strong effort that came up just short as the Pats pulled out one of their typical last-minute wins. More importantly, The Falcons also had a big loss when middle linebacker Ed Hartwell went down for the season. Harwell is a key performer for the Falcons and he’ll be greatly missed.
Coming off an embarrassing loss to a winless team is just the kind of situation I’m looking for. And with about 85% of the public on the Falcons I’m starting to soil myself. Add that to the fact that we are going head on into on of the scariest trends in all of the NFL (Falcons have covered 18 of 20 as a visitor against New Orleans) and we have a selection that will truly distinguish the sharp bettor from Joe public. Although the Saints probably won’t be a playoff contender, but they will able to make a big run just like last season and can’t be counted out. At 2-3, they are also in another must win situation off last weeks horrific performance. For those of you who have given up on the Saints let me remind everyone that last season’s largest NFL blowout loss was suffered by these Falcons, 56-10 at Kansas City. Well the very next Sunday Atlanta crushed Denver 41-28 as visitors. Oh yeah, the Saints in their only other “home” game this season defeated the Buffalo with relative ease.
Forecast: ATL Falcons 17, NO Saints 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NEW ORLEANS +5.5
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 8:30 PM
vs Analysis
What am I thinking this weekend? I’m sure most of you will ask this with some of these selections as I’m even having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the winless Texans. The Texans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) who fell 34-20 to the Tennessee Titans. The Texans continued their downward spiral, converting none of their 13 third downs and managing just one touchdown. The script is the same each week: QB David Carr has been sacked seven times in each of the last two games! The defense didn't get a sack or a turnover. They have four sacks in four games, and they're the only team in the league that hasn't forced a turnover. The one bright spot is that they have offensive talent, and since the new offensive coordinator took over, Houston has rushed for 126 and 161 yards. And the run defense is allowing 3.8 ypc, 13th in the NFL. Meanwhile the Seahawks built some momentum Sunday when they toppled nemesis St. Louis 37-31. The Seahawks snapped a four-game losing streak against the Rams that included a first-round playoff loss last season. RB Shaun Alexander ran for 119 yards a pair of scores and QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, and Seattle (3-2 SU, ATS) moved into first place in the NFC west. It was impressive, as the receiving corps is depleted due to injuries to Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.But those injuries didn’t matter because the Rams’ secondary was so porous. The Texans have better athletes in their secondary than the Rams so don’t expect a similar offensive performance as last week.
The Seahawks have a fragile mental makeup and are in a huge letdown spot after beating the Rams and I will not be surprised if they take this game lightly. This is a rare national TV game for the Texans, being the Sunday night ESPN match-up but rest assured, the pressure is all on Seattle here. When the home team is off a hard-fought, triple-revenge win against a division rival, and looks ahead to hosting a revenge game against a Dallas Cowboys team that embarrassed them on their home field in a nationally televised Monday Night game last season, then the winless road underdog becomes the positive-expectation side. NFL betting history says that road underdogs of +6 or more cover 58% over 13 seasons, which makes the Texans the percentage play. Don’t be surprised if they managed to pull the outright upset here.
Forecast: SEA Seahawks 21, HOU Texans 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HOUSTON +10
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