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HAS ANYBODY NOTICED THAT I WIN EVERY OTHER WEEK IN COLLEGE? ITS A RIDICULOUS TREND WHICH I HOPE WILL NOT CONTINUE, BUT I NEVERTHELESS WENT 4-3 LAST WEEKEND JUST LOOSING THE VIG. HOWEVER, NFL AGAIN WAS A WINNER SO CONTINUE MY AMAZIING STREEK. WITH THIS CONTINUED DOMINATION, I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) 17 OUT OF THE LAST 19 WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
3* SYRACUSE -2
2* CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7
2* OREGON STATE +16
1* ARKANSAS +8
1* OLE MISS +13
1* SOUTHERN MISS -8
1* WASHINGTON +16.5
1* NORTHERN ILLINOIS -21 ADDED
1* MICHIGAN -3 ADDED
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RUTGERS (3 - 2) at SYRACUSE (1 - 4)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 12:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano summed up his team’s performance when he said “we played pretty good football when we weren’t screwing it up.” The Scarlet Knights committed four turnovers and had a punt blocked for a touchdown. What’s worse, the team suddenly has a quarterback controversy as Ryan Hart seems to have worn out his welcome after being counted on as a certain starter for the whole season. Hart was 9-of-16 for 66 yards with one interception and no touchdowns and was replaced for what might be a record three times – once in the first quarter and twice in the fourth quarter. Redshirt freshman Mike Teel was 9-of-15 for 105 yards with two interceptions. Syracuse had another pathetic performance in a 26-7 loss at UConn. The Orange managed only 13 first downs and averaged barely three yards per carry while Perry Patterson was 10-of-28 for 125 yards. The defense, which held its first two opponents to a combined 15 points, has folded lately, giving up more than 420 yards of offense and more than 30 points per game in its last three games. The run defense has been a major problem allowing 297 yards vs Connecticut and more than four yards per carry for the season. Still, Syracuse is the better team overall.
I used to go to every Syracuse game when I lived up that way for a few years back and man oh man what a tough place to play if you’re the visitor. He crowd is right on top of the field and it can be one of the loudest domes in all of football. Recently, Rutgers HC Greg Schiano announced that 6-4, 220 Redshirt freshman QB Mike Teel will start in place of sr. Ryan Hart. It will be Teel’s first career start on the road and in the dome against quite an imposing defense especially at home. Rutgers is 0-5 ATS its last five visits to Syracuse and lost to the Orange 41-31 last season. Oh and how about this...Syracuse is 16-2 SU with 14 ****** in the last 18 vs Rutgers. Take the slightly better team at home.
Forecast: Syracuse 21, Rutgers 14
PLAY 3* UNITS ON SYRACUSE -2
OHIO U (2 - 3) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Some very nice line value in this game which is a total mismatch. Ohio (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) was manhandled by Bowling Green 38-14 on Saturday as the Falcons passed for over 380 yards. OU's Austen Everson threw for 171 yards with two interceptions and Jordan Meyers returned a blocked punt 15 yards for a score for Ohio (2-3, 1-1) managed only 68 yards rushing. Ohio is just 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS its last 15 road games! Central Michigan used a fourth quarter turnover to grab a 14-10 victory over the Black Knights of Army. Central Michigan (3-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) won for the third time on the road. QB Kent Smith was 15-for-25 for 92 yards passing and gained 76 running. Army won the statistical battle but the Chippewas won the war, played in nasty, rainy conditions. True frosh RB Ontario Sneed (6-0, 202), who is averaging 5.7 ypc and already has 6 TDs (4 of those covering 45+ yards!).
Central Michigan’s success this season was bound to happen. The Chips hired an excellent coach who was used to winning championships, they recruited a dual purpose QB (Kent Smith) who is tough and they’ve found a gamebreaking TB in Ontario Sneed. If you throw out that blowout loss at Penn State then Central Michigan could easily be 5-1. The Chippewas' losses to Indiana and Eastern Michigan were only by a combined 10 points. This game will be a matchup nightmare for the Bobcats as they have been outscored 33-16 and is giving up an average 300 yards per game in the air and 164 rushing. Mr. Smith will you please stand up? Don’t worry he will but I think he’ll be sitting down more after they are able to exploit the Bobcat defense often through their balanced attack. Oh...almost forgot you trend guys...Ohio is a dismal on the MAC road when the Bobbies allow more than seven points into revenge (4-16 ATS).
Forecast: Cent Michigan 34, Ohio 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7
AUBURN (4 - 1) at ARKANSAS (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
An SEC tilt that will be won on the ground. Auburn (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) plays its first road game of the season here, after opening the year with 5 straight home games! Playing a tailor-made lineup of cupcakes during the last month, the Auburn Tigers have rebounded nicely from their opening day loss to Georgia Tech. After getting shut down by Georgia Tech, the Tigers have rolled over Mississippi State (28-0), Ball State (63-3), Western Kentucky (37-14) and South Carolina (48-17). Auburn has won 11 consecutive Southeastern Conference games. Auburn's defense ranks second nationally in scoring defense (9. 8) and seventh in total defense (256.2) and pass defense (148.6). Arkansas (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) has only a win over Missouri State and La-Monroe under its belt, and they lost at home to Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite. This team is all about running the football, averaging 286 yards on the ground each game. Arkansas is a very young team and has not been able to effectively replace quarterback Matt Jones, a first-round draft choice in the NFL. Quarterback Robert Johnson is athletic and can make some big plays, but he also makes plenty of mistakes and is not as accurate as he needs to be.
In essence, this match-up boils down to this on question...can the Razorbacks successfully run against the Tigers? The answer? Absolutely! Arkansas averages an astounding 6.1 yards per carry, while Auburn yields just 3.2, just about half of what Arkansas averages. However, injuries to some key players may cause Auburn to be with-out half of their starting defensive line. Arkansas has no such trouble on their side of the ball, with two stud freshmen each coming off 100 yard games. As stated above Auburn also amazingly playing in their very first road game of the season. Since 1980 only 24 teams have had the 'luxury' of opening the season with five consecutive home games, but they have not fared well going 8-16 SU & 6-17-1 ATS. To make matters worse, if the first-time visitor (Auburn) is not undefeated (they are not) their record dips to 3-15 SU & 4-13-1 ATS. Look for Auburn's SEC winning streak to ends at 11 in their first game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Forecast: Auburn 20, Arkansas 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +8
OREGON ST (3 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (5 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 3:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
While the Beavers were taking last Saturday off, the Bears were absorbing a gut-wrenching loss. Cal led UCLA midway through the 4th quarter 40-28 before the Bruins reeled off 19 straight points to win 47-40. The Bears dominated most of the game, out first downing the host 26-17 and outgaining them 545-395. Huge advantages on both sides of the ball for the host here as Oregon State is totally unbalanced on offense, averaging a robust 315 yppg but just 92 on the ground. Additionally, OSU is very tough vs. the run (limited Washington St. to just 2.8 ypc in last game) but are extremely vulnerable through the air (446 yards per game last 3!). Cal leads the Pac-10 in total defense, scoring defense (16.6) and pass efficiency defense and has allowed only 23 points in three home games.
Simply put, this is just too many points. Teams suffering that first loss of the season sometimes have difficulty bouncing back off the initial loss and boy do they have a lively opponent in Oregon State. Indeed this game falls under a Special Mark Lawrence trend that reads as follows. PLAY AGAINST any college favorite of more then 3 points and allowed less 16 PPG in Game 6 that is playing off their1st loss of the season, if the loss was by 16 less points and they are facing a .400 or greater opponent. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 23-3 (89%). This game also fits into a more powerful system 28-2 ATS last 30 telling us to fade California. OSU is definitely schedule-tested playing the likes of Louisville, Boise State and Arizona State. Two weeks ago against the Sun Devils, the Beavers outplayed Arizona State in a losing effort. They committed five turnovers and countless penalties along the way. With a week off to prepare, they likely had plenty of time to work things out. The extra preparation time favors revenge minded Oregon State. Quarterback Matt Moore has just seven touchdowns to go with his seven interceptions. California is the better team, but the situation is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon State so take the big points.
Forecast: California 34, Oregon St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON STATE +16
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
3* SYRACUSE -2
2* CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7
2* OREGON STATE +16
1* ARKANSAS +8
1* OLE MISS +13
1* SOUTHERN MISS -8
1* WASHINGTON +16.5
1* NORTHERN ILLINOIS -21 ADDED
1* MICHIGAN -3 ADDED
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RUTGERS (3 - 2) at SYRACUSE (1 - 4)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 12:00 PM
vs Analysis
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano summed up his team’s performance when he said “we played pretty good football when we weren’t screwing it up.” The Scarlet Knights committed four turnovers and had a punt blocked for a touchdown. What’s worse, the team suddenly has a quarterback controversy as Ryan Hart seems to have worn out his welcome after being counted on as a certain starter for the whole season. Hart was 9-of-16 for 66 yards with one interception and no touchdowns and was replaced for what might be a record three times – once in the first quarter and twice in the fourth quarter. Redshirt freshman Mike Teel was 9-of-15 for 105 yards with two interceptions. Syracuse had another pathetic performance in a 26-7 loss at UConn. The Orange managed only 13 first downs and averaged barely three yards per carry while Perry Patterson was 10-of-28 for 125 yards. The defense, which held its first two opponents to a combined 15 points, has folded lately, giving up more than 420 yards of offense and more than 30 points per game in its last three games. The run defense has been a major problem allowing 297 yards vs Connecticut and more than four yards per carry for the season. Still, Syracuse is the better team overall.
I used to go to every Syracuse game when I lived up that way for a few years back and man oh man what a tough place to play if you’re the visitor. He crowd is right on top of the field and it can be one of the loudest domes in all of football. Recently, Rutgers HC Greg Schiano announced that 6-4, 220 Redshirt freshman QB Mike Teel will start in place of sr. Ryan Hart. It will be Teel’s first career start on the road and in the dome against quite an imposing defense especially at home. Rutgers is 0-5 ATS its last five visits to Syracuse and lost to the Orange 41-31 last season. Oh and how about this...Syracuse is 16-2 SU with 14 ****** in the last 18 vs Rutgers. Take the slightly better team at home.
Forecast: Syracuse 21, Rutgers 14
PLAY 3* UNITS ON SYRACUSE -2
OHIO U (2 - 3) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Some very nice line value in this game which is a total mismatch. Ohio (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) was manhandled by Bowling Green 38-14 on Saturday as the Falcons passed for over 380 yards. OU's Austen Everson threw for 171 yards with two interceptions and Jordan Meyers returned a blocked punt 15 yards for a score for Ohio (2-3, 1-1) managed only 68 yards rushing. Ohio is just 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS its last 15 road games! Central Michigan used a fourth quarter turnover to grab a 14-10 victory over the Black Knights of Army. Central Michigan (3-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) won for the third time on the road. QB Kent Smith was 15-for-25 for 92 yards passing and gained 76 running. Army won the statistical battle but the Chippewas won the war, played in nasty, rainy conditions. True frosh RB Ontario Sneed (6-0, 202), who is averaging 5.7 ypc and already has 6 TDs (4 of those covering 45+ yards!).
Central Michigan’s success this season was bound to happen. The Chips hired an excellent coach who was used to winning championships, they recruited a dual purpose QB (Kent Smith) who is tough and they’ve found a gamebreaking TB in Ontario Sneed. If you throw out that blowout loss at Penn State then Central Michigan could easily be 5-1. The Chippewas' losses to Indiana and Eastern Michigan were only by a combined 10 points. This game will be a matchup nightmare for the Bobcats as they have been outscored 33-16 and is giving up an average 300 yards per game in the air and 164 rushing. Mr. Smith will you please stand up? Don’t worry he will but I think he’ll be sitting down more after they are able to exploit the Bobcat defense often through their balanced attack. Oh...almost forgot you trend guys...Ohio is a dismal on the MAC road when the Bobbies allow more than seven points into revenge (4-16 ATS).
Forecast: Cent Michigan 34, Ohio 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7
AUBURN (4 - 1) at ARKANSAS (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
An SEC tilt that will be won on the ground. Auburn (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) plays its first road game of the season here, after opening the year with 5 straight home games! Playing a tailor-made lineup of cupcakes during the last month, the Auburn Tigers have rebounded nicely from their opening day loss to Georgia Tech. After getting shut down by Georgia Tech, the Tigers have rolled over Mississippi State (28-0), Ball State (63-3), Western Kentucky (37-14) and South Carolina (48-17). Auburn has won 11 consecutive Southeastern Conference games. Auburn's defense ranks second nationally in scoring defense (9. 8) and seventh in total defense (256.2) and pass defense (148.6). Arkansas (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) has only a win over Missouri State and La-Monroe under its belt, and they lost at home to Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite. This team is all about running the football, averaging 286 yards on the ground each game. Arkansas is a very young team and has not been able to effectively replace quarterback Matt Jones, a first-round draft choice in the NFL. Quarterback Robert Johnson is athletic and can make some big plays, but he also makes plenty of mistakes and is not as accurate as he needs to be.
In essence, this match-up boils down to this on question...can the Razorbacks successfully run against the Tigers? The answer? Absolutely! Arkansas averages an astounding 6.1 yards per carry, while Auburn yields just 3.2, just about half of what Arkansas averages. However, injuries to some key players may cause Auburn to be with-out half of their starting defensive line. Arkansas has no such trouble on their side of the ball, with two stud freshmen each coming off 100 yard games. As stated above Auburn also amazingly playing in their very first road game of the season. Since 1980 only 24 teams have had the 'luxury' of opening the season with five consecutive home games, but they have not fared well going 8-16 SU & 6-17-1 ATS. To make matters worse, if the first-time visitor (Auburn) is not undefeated (they are not) their record dips to 3-15 SU & 4-13-1 ATS. Look for Auburn's SEC winning streak to ends at 11 in their first game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Forecast: Auburn 20, Arkansas 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS +8
OREGON ST (3 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (5 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
While the Beavers were taking last Saturday off, the Bears were absorbing a gut-wrenching loss. Cal led UCLA midway through the 4th quarter 40-28 before the Bruins reeled off 19 straight points to win 47-40. The Bears dominated most of the game, out first downing the host 26-17 and outgaining them 545-395. Huge advantages on both sides of the ball for the host here as Oregon State is totally unbalanced on offense, averaging a robust 315 yppg but just 92 on the ground. Additionally, OSU is very tough vs. the run (limited Washington St. to just 2.8 ypc in last game) but are extremely vulnerable through the air (446 yards per game last 3!). Cal leads the Pac-10 in total defense, scoring defense (16.6) and pass efficiency defense and has allowed only 23 points in three home games.
Simply put, this is just too many points. Teams suffering that first loss of the season sometimes have difficulty bouncing back off the initial loss and boy do they have a lively opponent in Oregon State. Indeed this game falls under a Special Mark Lawrence trend that reads as follows. PLAY AGAINST any college favorite of more then 3 points and allowed less 16 PPG in Game 6 that is playing off their1st loss of the season, if the loss was by 16 less points and they are facing a .400 or greater opponent. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 23-3 (89%). This game also fits into a more powerful system 28-2 ATS last 30 telling us to fade California. OSU is definitely schedule-tested playing the likes of Louisville, Boise State and Arizona State. Two weeks ago against the Sun Devils, the Beavers outplayed Arizona State in a losing effort. They committed five turnovers and countless penalties along the way. With a week off to prepare, they likely had plenty of time to work things out. The extra preparation time favors revenge minded Oregon State. Quarterback Matt Moore has just seven touchdowns to go with his seven interceptions. California is the better team, but the situation is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon State so take the big points.
Forecast: California 34, Oregon St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON STATE +16
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It's always noon somewhere! 
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