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YET ANOTHER PROFITABLE WEEKEND IN THE NFL, TRADITIONALLY MY SPECIALITY AGAIN WINNING THE TOP TWO PLAYS WITH CLEVELAND AND NEW YORK COVERING WITH EASE. I HAVE NOW WON 17 OUT OF THE LAST 19 WEEKS COMBINED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. WITH LAST WEEKS PROFIT, I HAVE ALSO NOT HAD A LOSING WEEK THIS YEAR IN THE NFL, AND HAVE WON AN AMAZING 14 STRAIGHT WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 7 WINS 1 LOSS (87.5%)
1* 5 WINS 9 LOSSES (35.7%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* BALTIMORE -5.5
1* HOUSTON +10
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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
[color:blue]Analysis[/color]
Cleveland (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. The offense is 16th in NFL (16 points, 75 yds rushing, 251 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer leads a passing attack that is 9th in the NFL! Most impressive has been a tough defense that, despite a lack of depth and talent, is 16th in the NFL. Cleveland is off a 20-10 win over the Bears, even though HC Romeo Crennel's defense was sliced up for 137 yards rushing by Thomas Jones. However, it cranked up the heat on Chicago rookie quarterback Kyle Orton when the game was put in his hands. In the last 6½ minutes, Orton was sacked twice, stripped of the ball once and pressured into 3-of-7 passing for 18 yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The Ravens play old school football, pounding the ball with their running game while playing tough defensively. Despite getting smoked on Sunday, 35-17 at Detroit, the defense is still 2nd in the NFL (allowing 11 points, 91 yds rushing, 167 passing pg). However, the final score was a bit misleading as the Ravens had an edge in total yards 387-266.
At 1-3 SU (the worst start in franchise history) a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season. Also don’t be surprised if we see a game that fly’s over the posted total as I think this is a great situation for the Baltimore offense to get back on track against a team that is allowing 44 YPG more than it gains. Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell us that .250 Game Five home teams playing off a loss against an opponent off a win are 32-12-3 ATS since 1980. With the strong home field in which the Ravens have won seven of 10 by more than a touchdown and the fact that the Ravens have a season's worth of frustrations to vent. Today's the day to lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: BAL Ravens 28, CLE Browns 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE -5.5
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 8:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
What am I thinking this weekend? I’m sure most of you will ask this with some of these selections as I’m even having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the winless Texans. The Texans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) who fell 34-20 to the Tennessee Titans. The Texans continued their downward spiral, converting none of their 13 third downs and managing just one touchdown. The script is the same each week: QB David Carr has been sacked seven times in each of the last two games! The defense didn't get a sack or a turnover. They have four sacks in four games, and they're the only team in the league that hasn't forced a turnover. The one bright spot is that they have offensive talent, and since the new offensive coordinator took over, Houston has rushed for 126 and 161 yards. And the run defense is allowing 3.8 ypc, 13th in the NFL. Meanwhile the Seahawks built some momentum Sunday when they toppled nemesis St. Louis 37-31. The Seahawks snapped a four-game losing streak against the Rams that included a first-round playoff loss last season. RB Shaun Alexander ran for 119 yards a pair of scores and QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, and Seattle (3-2 SU, ATS) moved into first place in the NFC west. It was impressive, as the receiving corps is depleted due to injuries to Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.But those injuries didn’t matter because the Rams’ secondary was so porous. The Texans have better athletes in their secondary than the Rams so don’t expect a similar offensive performance as last week.
The Seahawks have a fragile mental makeup and are in a huge letdown spot after beating the Rams and I will not be surprised if they take this game lightly. This is a rare national TV game for the Texans, being the Sunday night ESPN match-up but rest assured, the pressure is all on Seattle here. When the home team is off a hard-fought, triple-revenge win against a division rival, and looks ahead to hosting a revenge game against a Dallas Cowboys team that embarrassed them on their home field in a nationally televised Monday Night game last season, then the winless road underdog becomes the positive-expectation side. NFL betting history says that road underdogs of +6 or more cover 58% over 13 seasons, which makes the Texans the percentage play. Don’t be surprised if they managed to pull the outright upset here.
Forecast: SEA Seahawks 21, HOU Texans 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HOUSTON +10
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 3 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 7 WINS 1 LOSS (87.5%)
1* 5 WINS 9 LOSSES (35.7%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* BALTIMORE -5.5
1* HOUSTON +10
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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 1:00 PM
vs [color:blue]Analysis[/color]
Cleveland (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. The offense is 16th in NFL (16 points, 75 yds rushing, 251 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer leads a passing attack that is 9th in the NFL! Most impressive has been a tough defense that, despite a lack of depth and talent, is 16th in the NFL. Cleveland is off a 20-10 win over the Bears, even though HC Romeo Crennel's defense was sliced up for 137 yards rushing by Thomas Jones. However, it cranked up the heat on Chicago rookie quarterback Kyle Orton when the game was put in his hands. In the last 6½ minutes, Orton was sacked twice, stripped of the ball once and pressured into 3-of-7 passing for 18 yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The Ravens play old school football, pounding the ball with their running game while playing tough defensively. Despite getting smoked on Sunday, 35-17 at Detroit, the defense is still 2nd in the NFL (allowing 11 points, 91 yds rushing, 167 passing pg). However, the final score was a bit misleading as the Ravens had an edge in total yards 387-266.
At 1-3 SU (the worst start in franchise history) a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season. Also don’t be surprised if we see a game that fly’s over the posted total as I think this is a great situation for the Baltimore offense to get back on track against a team that is allowing 44 YPG more than it gains. Mark Lawrence chimes in to tell us that .250 Game Five home teams playing off a loss against an opponent off a win are 32-12-3 ATS since 1980. With the strong home field in which the Ravens have won seven of 10 by more than a touchdown and the fact that the Ravens have a season's worth of frustrations to vent. Today's the day to lay the points with confidence.
Forecast: BAL Ravens 28, CLE Browns 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE -5.5
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2)
Week 6 Sunday, 10/16/2005 8:30 PM
vs Analysis
What am I thinking this weekend? I’m sure most of you will ask this with some of these selections as I’m even having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the winless Texans. The Texans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) who fell 34-20 to the Tennessee Titans. The Texans continued their downward spiral, converting none of their 13 third downs and managing just one touchdown. The script is the same each week: QB David Carr has been sacked seven times in each of the last two games! The defense didn't get a sack or a turnover. They have four sacks in four games, and they're the only team in the league that hasn't forced a turnover. The one bright spot is that they have offensive talent, and since the new offensive coordinator took over, Houston has rushed for 126 and 161 yards. And the run defense is allowing 3.8 ypc, 13th in the NFL. Meanwhile the Seahawks built some momentum Sunday when they toppled nemesis St. Louis 37-31. The Seahawks snapped a four-game losing streak against the Rams that included a first-round playoff loss last season. RB Shaun Alexander ran for 119 yards a pair of scores and QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, and Seattle (3-2 SU, ATS) moved into first place in the NFC west. It was impressive, as the receiving corps is depleted due to injuries to Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.But those injuries didn’t matter because the Rams’ secondary was so porous. The Texans have better athletes in their secondary than the Rams so don’t expect a similar offensive performance as last week.
The Seahawks have a fragile mental makeup and are in a huge letdown spot after beating the Rams and I will not be surprised if they take this game lightly. This is a rare national TV game for the Texans, being the Sunday night ESPN match-up but rest assured, the pressure is all on Seattle here. When the home team is off a hard-fought, triple-revenge win against a division rival, and looks ahead to hosting a revenge game against a Dallas Cowboys team that embarrassed them on their home field in a nationally televised Monday Night game last season, then the winless road underdog becomes the positive-expectation side. NFL betting history says that road underdogs of +6 or more cover 58% over 13 seasons, which makes the Texans the percentage play. Don’t be surprised if they managed to pull the outright upset here.
Forecast: SEA Seahawks 21, HOU Texans 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HOUSTON +10
It's always noon somewhere! 
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